vreporter

Housing: The Ship Is Turning

Chuck,
You have made many a great call - Manny Hanny style - but I sure hope you are right about this extrapolating into the metro NYC/NJ market. That would imply a trend change in local employment that is still speeding in the opposite direction!

Housing Solution: Crashing Home Prices or Cheaper Mortgages?

AFFORDABILITY is misinterpreted and quoted out of context.
Affordability is an "immediate" status calculation with little regard for what may happen with the level PAST purchase date.
This assumption is based on funding (mortgage) rates being fixed after closing - acceptable.
This assumption then implies that the stable funding protects the valuation of the property in question - absolutely unacceptable.

Looking at it another way, AFFORDABILITY is what got us into the problem.

While current and future mortgage application requirements have/will increase, there is little protection for prices until prices adjust with inventory.

That balance is still grossly tipped in favor of falling prices.

Are Things About to Turn Around for Housing?

Prices are NOT low in MOST of the country. That's the problem stupid!

Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break?

To add to all the valid comments above:
Most buyers looked at the bottom line on an after tax basis. The deduction on mortgage interest and other incidentals was the final kicker for greed.

What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us

While everyone here is probably right about the real estate market, they are probably wrong about (homebuilder) stocks. The two are not always correlated and the author raises some credible "technical" points about these sector stocks. As a longtime bear on homebuilders, I am betting on the stocks recovering despite their "property" values declining. At least for a substantial retracement - which is still worth the long trade.

Food for thought!