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ianxponent

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  • Minimum Wage Increases Of More Than 30% - Are We Finally About To See Inflation Take Off? [View article]
    I used to be a libertarian... then I turned 30. Seriously, it sounds good in the abstract but is doomed to fail catastrophically in the real world.
    Jul 9 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth? [View article]
    greg105: "utilities gain a 300% profit margin"
    In some cases, far more. My utility's time-of-use rate is set up in such a way that in the September-December timeframe, they borrow excess on-peak kWh from my solar system, sell them immediately to my neighbors at a rate of between $0.19 and $0.25 per kWh. Then in December, they give me a credit for those unused kWh at the rate of $0.029 per kWh. That's a tidy profit indeed of between 500% and 800%. I'm not really complaining, I just want to show how the utilities tweak the net metering concept to their advantage.
    Jul 9 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Straddle On SVXY [View instapost]
    Presumably IV fluctuates over time. Do we know how typical a value today's 53% is?
    Jul 6 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simpler SVXY Strategy [View instapost]
    I suppose it would be some solace for the tea party taking over the Senate. ;)
    Jul 5 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New SVXY Strategy [View instapost]
    No, how I understand it is that R has to be negative and its absolute value greater than average historical R. The idea is that you don't want to switch to UVXY unless backwardation has really taken hold. In other words, it's not enough for R to barely slip below zero, it has to go significantly negative to signal the switch. I would assume that the same switch point would be used when R has reversed course and moved back towards contango but maybe a clarification of that point is in order.
    Jul 3 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth? [View article]
    John, drunyon's array faces southeast so that should give you a clue. Indeed, some choose - if they can - to orient their arrays towards the southwest so as to increase their afternoon production when it's most valuable under a time of use plan.
    Jul 2 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth? [View article]
    J.P.: "A full and fair rebuttal"

    That's what I gave to your demonstrably false declaration of solar power in a fixed array being "gone by 4." Plus, I expanded my answer to include January 1 as well where I get 1/3 of peak power at 4 PM so clearly not "gone by 4" then either.

    Your whole shtick in this article revolves around use of loaded words, attack and hyperbole instead of sober fact-based discussion. Yes, there are issues with incorporating RE into the grid but useful discussion of potential solutions gets lost in all the drama on which you seem to thrive.
    Jul 2 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth? [View article]
    Zelaza: "Why don't you remind us again on January 1, rather than just July 1 ?"

    No need to. On January 1, 2014, my power at 4 PM was still 1/3 of what it peaked at during the noon hour that day. Obviously less but not exactly "gone" either. Plus where I live, not much power is being used on New Years Day afternoon.
    Jul 2 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth? [View article]
    J.P.: "gone by 4 pm"

    John, that's just more hyperbole. Yesterday at 4:00 PM, my south facing system was still producing 2/3 of its peak power that occurred around 12:30 PM. And I don't have a tracker.
    Jul 2 06:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Cheap Asset Class [View article]
    Well, that's why I cautioned that it's a very short term investment. Frankly, I'd never put my own money into it. There are better ways to make money on volatility - or lack thereof.
    Jul 1 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New SVXY Strategy [View instapost]
    One possibility for a jump in volatility could come later this year if the GOP retakes the Senate. The tea partiers in Congress will then start to discuss impeachment seriously and that should be good for a spike in volatility thus producing good entry points for SVXY using M.I.'s strategy. Fortuitously that might all take place around the start of or into next year. Of course ultimately, impeachment won't go anywhere but we'll have made lots of money in the meantime. Who says the tea party isn't good for something?! ;)
    Jul 1 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Cheap Asset Class [View article]
    MI: "Since it came out in 2009, VXX has lost 99.9%."
    Yes, there is that!
    Jun 30 07:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Cheap Asset Class [View article]
    You could try the VXX ETN which is described by iPath as "The iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ ETN is designed to provide investors with exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index Total Return." Be careful though as by its very structure, it will tend to lose value over time so it's a very short term investment. IMHO, trying to predict a volatility spike is usually a fool's errand. Wait for a spike then buy an inverse VIX product and make money as VIX reverts to the mean. Search SVXY for discussion of other strategies.
    Jun 30 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New SVXY Strategy [View instapost]
    So it looks like it would have been a quick in and out unless you wait a bit to confirm the trend back towards contango. Is there a good source of historical data for F1 and F2?

    BTW, I'm sure I'm not the only one who appreciates your sharing of this intriguing approach to investing in SVXY. Your article last summer has proved quite profitable!
    Jun 30 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New SVXY Strategy [View instapost]
    So, am I correct in thinking that there hasn't been a signal to go into UVXY since sometime in August, 2011?
    Jun 30 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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