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  • The Federal Reserve Has Painted Itself Into A Corner [View article]
    I think any attempt to predict the stock market direction based upon the fiscal policy of other economies compared to ours will not be, by nature, accurate.
    Jun 4, 2015. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down The Rabbit Hole [View article]
    Very interesting and very philosophical in every way possible. There are no answers, only ideas. Only the future will determine if the ideas become answers.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employers are going to have to pay out an estimated $1.1B of rebates to workers whose 2011 health-insurance plans spent too much of their premium dollars on administration rather than medical care. The requirement goes into force today under the Healthcare Act, as does a rule forcing employers to include contraception and other women's services in workers' plans without charging fees.  [View news story]
    Economics will not determine your life expectancy and neither will rules or regulations. The real determinant of your life expectancy is your genes. If you get to be 65 without any degenerative disorders you will live a long life, longer than average expectancy. On the other hand if you get to be 65 and have a half dozen of chronic degenerative disorders on board you will likely not live to the average life expectancy for age. It is as simple as that. Of course, accidents do happen and even the healthiest person may be killed prematurely in a car crash.
    Aug 1, 2012. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In today's market, it seems that if you hold onto an investment for longer than just a few days, you're this century's version of a value investor. The average holding period for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is less than five days, and the ETF trades more than its entire capitalization each and every week. In an age where high-frequency trading dominates the market, many are beginning to wonder if the buy and hold strategy is dead.  [View news story]
    HFT is playing a bigger role than you all think. Take the HFT as noise obscuring the true signal for SPY or any other large security actively traded by the HFT crowd. Since they provide the bulk of the volume in SPY they also control the direction SPY takes. This is a case where the noise becomes the signal.

    Now, to go further, HFT is played by identifying nuances in the price action that indicates impending buying or selling. Once this nuance is identified, they just pour in trying to beat one another to the goal line. Profit and loss depend on millisecond reaction times.

    Now, please ask yourselves, how is this similar to the type of research and trading you all do? The answer is not at all similar. So then, since the HFT crowd controls the short term trading, what is left for all the rest of us? Simply stated the long term tradign. And how can we do this with the HFT traders controlling the price action?

    Well for one the HFT crowd generally does not consider value and acts in knee jerk movement by many many traders at a time that can be compared to a gestalt or mass movement. One idea may be to wait for them to beat a stock down that you do not think deserves to be beaten down and then buy it and hold tight, or to look for something soaring to the stratosphere which you do not think has the fundamental support to be there, and then short it.

    Just some thoughts. Have fun.
    Jun 26, 2012. 12:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment