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  • Fitch cuts China's yuan-denominated (i.e. domestically traded) long-term debt to A+ from AA- citing growing risks to financial stability. The country's bank credit to GDP ratio was 135.7% as of December, more than any other emerging market economy — if shadow bank lending is included, the figure is closer to 200% of GDP. "Anytime credit is growing this fast, it makes people worry about misallocation and bad debt," a UBS economist told WSJ[View news story]
    Ignore it, it's over THERE - can't affect US, right?
    Apr 9 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • German imports unexpectedly dropped for the third time in four months in February, falling 3.8% on month vs +3.3% in January and missing consensus of +0.5%. Exports -1.5% vs +1.3% and unchanged. Trade surplus widened to €17.1B from €15.6B and vs forecasts for €15B. The slide in imports suggests that domestic demand has softened; the hope has been that it will boost German and eurozone growth. (PR[View news story]
    It will be ignored, as are any and all other negative indicators and reports. Everybody will be keenly aware of all the warning signs after it's too late.
    Apr 9 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tactical Strategies - Pulling In The Horns [View article]
    Nobody should be surprised when this cruise ship finally gets turned around and heads back to port. Investors and speculators have had ample warning.
    Apr 9 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As leaked earlier the State Department's assessment (full report) of TransCanada's (TRP) Keystone pipeline project  finds little to criticize as far as environmental impact, calling it "very unlikely" any releases would affect groundwater quality. The report also doesn't see much climate impact nor "significant adverse" impact on Canada's environment. There's now a 45-day comment period and then things move to the White House. [View news story]
    This should be seen as a so-called concession to the GOP on Sequester Day. The 45-day WH Bargaining period lines up with other scheduled manufactured "crises" in D.C. Will be interesting to watch this play out (while Rome burns...).
    Mar 1 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pullback Begins For The Market [View article]
    Pithy and on point!
    Feb 25 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hopeless Situation: A New Cyclical Bear Market Is Coming Soon [View article]
    I pray that you're right. All of the "Intervention" that has taken place in the US and Globally since '09 has destroyed market "faith" and "reason." A fierce secular bear would restore it.
    Feb 25 06:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bulls, But This Is Still A Secular Bear Market [View article]
    Excellent counter-argument! My reaction to the aforementioned article was the same, but in a much simpler way - I just said to myself, "Hmm...I'm not buying it."
    Feb 25 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building Support Or Hitting Resistance? [View article]
    very well-balanced analysis and commentary. i found it especially useful as for how/why the market can remain elevated or even push a little higher from current levels in the near-term. i agree with your expectation of pull back to the 1450 range but i'd be interested to know what your thoughts are on what fair value is on the S&P? and what (if anything) would precipitate revisiting that level in the coming weeks/months?
    Feb 14 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: S&P 500 [View article]
    For JP's comment, I'm sure that "this time is different" with relation to the Fed and US Treasury, is eerily similar to others' claims on the eve of the previous two deep declines referenced in the article. I'm sure there were plausible reasons why the selloffs wouldn't or couldn't happen, but they did. While I agree that the market, with the Fed's intervention, is somewhat dysfunctional in the near-term - I believe that it will ultimately behave as it is intended and purge these artificial mechanisms. When I say I believe, feel, etc., I mean to convey a strong conviction - with 6k shares of SPXU currently at <$31, which I intend to sell at >$40. If the author's correct about the magnitude/depth of the selloff, I may sell at $58.
    Feb 12 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fed Policy Is Hurting The Economy [View article]
    so is it cause-effect, or effect-cause? or perhaps cause-effect-cause and/or effect-cause-effect? Either way, I think more battles will be fought in burning buildings; water will be sprayed in National Parks. It's those "evil" corporations and "greedy" one-percenters we have to blame for all our woes, if they'd just "give" it all to the 99%, then everything would be great - because then it'd be used properly.
    Feb 7 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoiding Recession Is All That Matters [View article]
    "Ultimately, the yield on cash will rise significantly, while the yield on other assets will decline as their prices rise.

    All it takes for this to happen is to simply avoid a recession."

    A recession, at some point during the course of what you're describing, will no doubt occur. When it does, risk-takers of all types (particularly those following your mantra, those taking their cues from central banks) will be punished mercilessly. They'll have good cause to feel as though they're victims of entrapment - they, after all, were led into their precarious positions. So then what? What of the so-called "free market" ?
    Jan 31 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Won't Mint A Platinum Coin [View article]
    The fact that you were motivated to write this article should be enormously embarassing to all Americans. What a pathetic state of affairs we've created.
    Jan 7 05:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States 2012 Cash Deficit: Only $1.096 Trillion [View article]
    Sad but True. Our problem isn't the politician, it's the people that put them there. We, the people, are the problem. How anyone, who reads and understands your article, can simply shrug it off and go about their day.... is why we're in this mess.
    Jan 7 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Forecast: Uncertainty Ahead? [View article]
    Paper-thin safety factor on almost all fronts. I can't help but wonder how the U.S. and Global Markets could absorb a Black Swan event.
    Jan 7 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trillion Dollar Coin To Wipe Out U.S. Debt [View article]
    Imagine the security requirements for such a coin. Just 17 of them and it's our entire national debt. Heck, why not mint an even 20 and start the 2nd BHO term off with a $3T Surplus?...the possibilities are endless. I hear a chants ringing feintly in my head: "Yes We Can" and "Hope and Change."
    Jan 4 07:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment