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lord_ares

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  • Tesla Model S owner puts out fire about fire [View news story]
    [It ripped a hole in the bottom of my car, but it didn't catch on fire]

    --That's because it didn't ripped a hole through the gas tank. If it did you wouldn't be alive today.

    [The issue I have with the Tesla fires is that it appears to be a design flaw - it has a risk from a vey common accident that other traditional ICEs and other Electric a Vehicles do not.]

    --Model S's energy source is in the bottom of the car, if something rips through it, it causes a fire - just like any other car. That's why the battery has a protective layer. I wouldn't call it a design flaw, I'd call it a trade off. The battery being at the bottom lowers the center of gravity and adds to the millage. The fact that Tesla put an armored plate at the bottom tells me that they knew that if something punctured the battery it'll cause a release of the energy stored in the battery - thus cause a fire. That's why it's designed in such away that if and when something rips through the energy source, it'll warn the driver to pull over and not just explode.

    Armored plates are again a trade off, you can make it thicker and add to the weight but the question is how thick do you make it? What happens if something hits with a greater force? You can't cover all the infinite variables.

    It would be a design flaw it the car catches fire after every accident or if the car randomly catches fire when you are driving.

    This is not a design flaw, it's how it's made, if something rips through - warn the driver to pull over and release the energy in the best possible manner - fire without reaching the passenger compartment. There maybe instance in the future when it'll rip through the center of the car and cause the fire at the center. But again the point is you cannot cover all the variables and there are always design trade offs and as far as design trade offs go, this is the best possible outcome - no loss of life or injury for that matter.
    Nov 11 11:21 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Results: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly And Some New Predictions [View article]
    Exactly! Tesla met the target set by them. They'll continue to do so.

    This sell off is in fact good. A price correction was long over due and the cooling off can be used to add more shares. Personally, I'd like the price to drop to around 130/140 range.
    Nov 6 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silence on 2014 production says a lot to some Tesla investors [View news story]
    Gross margin excluding ZEV credits is 22%, better than I had hoped. I thought it would be in high teens this quarter and then 22-25% by next quarter.

    Another Elon Musk target accomplished! :-)
    Nov 5 04:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Tesla Now, Its Strategy Is Already Failing [View article]
    @Tippydog,

    I didn't say Tesla is the same as Apple or Microsoft, but investing in Tesla today is like investing in Apple or Microsoft back in the 80s. You knew the PC would be big and everyone will have one at home but do bet on newbies like Apple and Microsoft or IBM?

    EVs and maybe fuel cells are the future just because oil is finite.

    BMW sold about 300,000 3 series last year, in 10 years if Tesla can sell 300,000+ cars a year at 12-15% margin, you have the current value.

    Personally I think it'll be really big. It'll be a top car manufacturer in the world. I think there will be other manufacturers that'll licence Tesla's technology.

    [And so much can go wrong. Why would own this stock if they weren't getting paid for that risk?] -- You are assuming that company grows into it's current value and then STOP! A year from now or 2 or 3 years from now you'll be looking into the next 10 years. $CRM has been around for about 10 years, right? They haven't made a profit, but the stock keeps increasing every year, why? Because it's a growing business. As long as the business keeps growing and if you plan to hold long term, then it doesn't matter.
    Oct 28 12:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Tesla Now, Its Strategy Is Already Failing [View article]
    @Andrei Valgin,

    Yes, if every company delivers on their promises then of of course there is no risk.

    What is the best measure to gauge the likelihood of a company delivering on it's promises? I think it's the past promises. In this particular case, it's also the person behind the company. Frankly, people will take Elon Musk word over anyone in this forum because he has delivered in the past and there is no reason to believe he won't in the future.

    What you are suggesting is that Tesla will stop growing or just grow into what Elon Musk has stated already. But if you believe that EVs are the future of transport and the pioneer of EVs, Tesla will have a significant market share in this future all-EV or mostly-EV market, then 21B market cap is relatively cheap.

    If Tesla can sell 500K cars annually 10-12 years from now at an average of say 35K (at present day values of 3 series) with say 12-15% margin, that means revenue of around 17B and net income of 2-3B. If this is your bet, then 21B market cap is not too expensive.

    That is the risk (bulls) are taking and most of that risk is based on Elon Musk.

    This is like betting on Apple and Microsoft in early 80s (as oppose to IBM and HP etc.)
    Oct 22 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Tesla Now, Its Strategy Is Already Failing [View article]
    @Andrei Valgin,

    I never said that Tesla will sell 600,000 cars in 4-5 years. Yes, Musk has said before that his target is 300,000 Gen 3 cars - he hasn't really given a time line for this. If they release a Gen 3 prototype by 2015 and then go into Production by 2016/17, I don't think they'll be able to reach 300K units in 2016/17 - probably 2018. But as I said in my earlier post, in 2018 you "price in" the next goal Musk has set for Tesla.

    For bulls of stocks like Amazon, Tesla, Salesforce what matters is whether the company is growing and as long as it's growing, it's about the next target and then the one after that and how likely or unlikely it is to for the company to reach that target. The only measure in cases like this is the past record of the said business and people involved, it's not fundamentals at that point - it's about, 'what is it that they are saying they can do?' and 'can they do it?'. As of now, the answer to the second question, the most important one is YES!

    There is always going to ups and down in a stock like this, if you are a trader with a faint heart, stay away because it's like the lottery - you may win or loose on a given day/week/month. But if you are in it for a few years - like I am, it doesn't matter.

    I am long Tesla, I brought my position at the beginning on the year, I won't be selling before 2018 anyways - unless **** hits the fan. :-)
    Oct 21 04:25 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Tesla Now, Its Strategy Is Already Failing [View article]
    A lot of people are getting Tesla wrong, both bulls and bears.

    When it comes to price, all that Tesla needs to do is meet the goals (or exceed it by a little) they have set themselves. For example, this year they planed to sell 20,000 cars now there are reports that that number is going to be over 21,000. Another example is 25% margin - Elon said during the last earnings call that he is confident that they'll be able to achieve 25% or come as close to 25% in 2 quarters if I remember right. So that chances are that this time the margins will increase from the previous 12% to somewhere between 15-20%. As long as Tesla meet goals set by themselves (and there is no reason to believe that they wouldn't given their record), the stock price will tend up.

    Today the bulls are looking at Gen 3 and then in 2016/17 when Gen 3 comes to market, bulls will be looking for the potential of the next target and mark my word, Musk will set that target for Tesla not the bulls. In 10 years bulls will be looking for the next target 2 or 3 years from then.

    The difference between all SA authors whether it's bulls or bear and Elon Musk is that, Musk is in the trenches, he knows more than you do and time and again he has proven that he sets goals that are relatively achievable - at least for him.

    You can debate whether or not Tesla will be able to sell x number of cars in 2016 but what you cannot do is say, "this is my bear case and based on that Tesla would not be able to make a BMW 3 series/Audi A4/MB C-Class price range car." Because time and again, he has done what he has said.

    Also, Musk never said that Tesla would make a 30,000 car, what he said was that he would bring a car similarly priced to a BMW 3 series. Today that is a 34,000-35,000 car. In 2016 that maybe a 40,000 car. This Gen 3 or Model E, whatever you kids like to call it these days would be priced at that range.

    There may be a correction in price, mainly because some people like to take profits before an earnings call. If you are in it for the long haul, say next 2-5 years, then I don't believe this a terrible price.
    Oct 21 02:28 PM | 35 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Motors Reputation For Perfection Just Go Up In Smoke? [View article]
    I am a huge Tesla fan and I have a small position. Tesla never said in 2015 there will be a Model S that can run 500 miles on a charge. Please share your source.
    Oct 4 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors in focus [View news story]
    Very true. I brought the stock earlier this year and it's up over 300% but I am not selling, not at least for a couple of years.
    Sep 25 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors in focus [View news story]
    Who is FinancialJuice and where is the link to the NHTSA source? That tweet seems rather fishy.

    As far as the report is concern, of course the stock is trading at a premium, everybody knows that. For the stock to be at these levels or move up further, Tesla only has to do 1 thing and 1 thing only, meet promises they have made themselves.

    1) Deliver 20+ thousand cars this year (in line to do so)
    2) Achieve 25% margin or get as close as possible to that mark over the next 2 quarters.
    3) Start rolling out Model X second half of next year and move to expanded production in 2015.
    4) Expand on the super charge network as promised.
    5) Design concept mass market car at 30-35 thousand range by end of 2016.
    6) Bring Gen 3 to market by 2017.

    Except for the last 2 everything else is quite achievable. The other thing that they have to do is build production capacity - to about 100K cars by 2016. They don't have to sell 100K cars by 2016 but have the capacity to build. I doubt they'll be able to sell 100K Model S and X annually (just because of the price range).

    My point is a freshmen business major could have written the Citron report.
    Sep 25 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric vehicles a hot topic at Frankfurt Auto Show [View news story]
    First-in, last-out - Elon Musk's words.

    He is not going to get "bored" until he meets goals he has set for himself. People like Elon would consider not meet a goal as a personal failure. If he steps aside it would be after a Gen 3 car. Unless he gets sick, I sure he will head Tesla for at least another 5 years.
    Sep 11 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric vehicles a hot topic at Frankfurt Auto Show [View news story]
    Elon Musk has a physic degree as well and he taught himself programming when he was a kid. He is an Engineer.
    Sep 11 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Xiaomi's Amazon-Apple-Google Business Model Help It Conquer The World? [View article]
    Xiaomi will be big in China but I doubt anywhere else. For starters, Europeans, Americans and most Asian countries wouldn't use services offered by a Chinese company mainly due to privacy concerns.

    Now you might say, the NSA also spies and if you are an European or Asian, what would being spied on by Americans better than the Chinese or visa-versa?

    Well, at least we are a democracy and we still have a chance to make chances to our system through elections and of course that option is not there in China and if you are a European, the close relationship between our governments could result in some sort of accountability and checks and balances. That is not the same case with China.

    So if Xiaomi is trying to sell phone at a cost hoping to make money through services that same way Google is trying to do, it won't gain much traction outside of China.
    Sep 9 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints [View article]
    @Cassina Tarsia

    Musk has previously stated that it is possible to recycle about 90% of the cell. When vehicles like Tesla becomes the norm, there will be an effective recycling process. In fact I am sure Tesla themselves might buy the batteries after they die and recycle them with the help of their partners. That in facts adds value to the car since the most venerable piece in a electric car is it's battery. Electric motors can run years with very little wear and tear.

    Like Musk said before and like the author pointed out, according to the current production capacity, only a couple hundred thousand electric cars can be built annually. The key word is current. When the demand increases, supply will catch up since the known lithium ion reserves will last for at least another 80 years even if all global transportation is battery powered.

    80 years is a long time, in 80 years we could either find more lithium ion or find another technology to power our cars or we could develop technology to source resources from Mars.

    I can provide references for these claims later. I have to look for them again.
    Aug 26 03:54 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Bubble Finally About To Pop? [View article]
    I am long Tesla and if Telsa pulls back to levels I think it's worth, I will buy more. This company will do well and I plan on holding my position for at least 5 years maybe more.

    I doubt current auto companies will buy Tesla. If someone buys Tesla it'll be a very rich technology company in silicon valley that's trying to diversify their business.

    Even if one of the auto companies wants to buy Tesla I doubt Musk would sell it, especially if they just plan on making hybrids. Musk has said that he doesn't really like hybrids.

    For guys like me, a pull back is awesome! I saw bring it on!
    Aug 14 06:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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