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ptmmac

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  • Gold Is Asleep - When Will It Awaken? [View article]
    The real store for value has not been in gold since 1945. The 2 commodities that drive power and equity in the modern world are oil and plutonium. Any one who expects Gold to become the source of power and value in this world are just plain whistling in the dark. Why would those who control all the real assets suddenly start paying as much for gold as all the other Assets in the whole world. That is essentially the silly idea behind the gold bugs fever. Greed has gotten a hold of small number of people and it has made Gold their asset of choice. Gold is going to be trading for 250$ an ounce in 30 years when mining of the asteroids begins.

    So ask yourself. If you own most of the plutonium and oil in the world, will you let gold dictate your prices?
    Oct 21 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Libya Sunk The Oil Frackers' Stocks, Plus The Conoco Story [View article]
    I think you are correct if the cost of batteries remains as high as it currently is running. Faster charging will also make smaller batteries much more acceptable to the average consumer. Unless someone starts taxing miles of driving on the road, there will continue to be many reasons to use electricity for fuel. We are getting closer to a tipping point here, and I would want to own a hedge against that before I went with a decent percentage of my portfolio in Oil. I am not sure where to look for such a hedge, but the governments who are so dependent on oil for income are not going to reduce their production for very long to keep the price up. Long term I think high oil prices are bad for the whole industry as it will make the technology moat around oil consumption much lower for innovators to climb. Whale oil was very profitable until petroleum was brought online. That is a bit of hyperbole, because petroleum has so many other uses and may well be a feed stock for nano tech devices in the coming years. If I were Saudi Arabia, or Amoco, I would be spending at least 5% of my income on research on petroleum based nano tech, 3D printing and alternative power.
    Oct 16 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Libya Sunk The Oil Frackers' Stocks, Plus The Conoco Story [View article]
    Does anyone on this board consider other technologies dropping the demand for oil over the mid range future - 2 to 4 years? New battery tech is coming to make electric vehicles much more palatable. 15 minute charges would make electric much more acceptable to the American public.
    http://bit.ly/1w9XPse

    There is also a new type of steel that is a nano structured form of bainitic steel.
    This will lower costs for lighter materials and actually is stronger per weight than titanium.
    http://bit.ly/1w9XPsg

    A lighter and more efficient inverter is also in the cards:
    http://bit.ly/1w9XQMQ

    No one of these changes except the new battery anode can make a huge change by itself, but all three seem to point to lower energy costs world wide in the coming decade. Does this seem to be the time to be investing in Oil stocks?
    Oct 16 12:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    My only problem with the article is listing a 25% increase in profits as 125% increase in table 4. Am I missing something here or are you trying to make a very good increase of 25% look like a mythical increase of 125%?

    I believe that 25% is a good number and if Apple can keep doing that kind of growth over the next 5 years we will be looking at the largest money machine ever made by perhaps a full order of magnitude.
    Sep 24 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Undervalued, They're Golden [View article]
    This is a commodity not a form of money. It will respond to the laws of supply and demand. When prices rose quickly many people got into the business of mining gold. It didn't keep going up so now capacity in the industry is greater than demand. There is no direct connection between monetary policies and golds value.
    Sep 20 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple [View article]
    The average is over the whole region. If you really don't understand that then you need to try a bit harder. Singapore is one market in the whole region that you reported sales from. It is also Apple's weakest region, so sales there are not going to be strong. No Apple store means no direct customer support.
    Sep 18 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple [View article]
    You are quoting an average over a general area. You are not quoting from the sales in Singapore alone. The point about India is that if you put that number into all of Apples sales it does not effect the final sales in any meaningful way. The link to the article has a basic overview of how much effort Apple has put into this region. The bottom line is there is very little effort on Apple's part to grow this region. There are no Apple Stores in Singapore. The whole region lacks Apple stores. I don't know Apple's sales in this region, but I would not attempt to extrapolate sales in Singapore from a general average of the whole region.


    http://tnw.co/1uL5HBq
    Sep 18 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overcoming Financial Pessimism [View article]
    Really refreshing content in the article and the comments. Thanks everybody!
    Sep 14 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple [View article]
    I already replied to you above, but you simply added some more average figures, and cherry picked those as well. 4th Quarter is always Apple's weakest, just before new product introductions. First quarter is Apple's strongest because of Christmas. This seasonality does not apply in Asia except as Chinese New Year.

    One other factor to add to your numbers: Apple does not do a complete update to their handset except every 2 years. This is obvious if you remember the 4,4s, 5,5s and 5c, and now the 6 and 6+. The growth chart for Apple's phone sales show peaks in growth from the introduction of the 4 and 5, and probably now the 6 iPhone sales.

    This is also the first year that Apple will have a full platform of 3 different size phones to sell into the market. If you look at how the iPod rolled out, it went to a 3 different sizes. Next year you can expect Apple to have 2 price points for 3 different phone sizes, and the 5c will finally be the cheap price point that so many analysts were looking for. It will be selling for $350 and the most expensive phone will be the 6s+ with 128 gigs of memory for $950. Gross profit margins on the iPhone will again reach 60% because the second edition will be cheaper to produce than the first.

    Expect Apple to gross at least 50% more in phone sales in 2015 over the 2013 year by that point. That would be 225 million iPhones and at least $58 billion in profits just from the iPhone. In 2013 there were 1.86 billion cell phones sold. If that number stays at about 1.9 Billion by 2015. Apple would only have 12% of the market in gross unit sales for all cell phones. Profits and percentage of gross dollar sales are another matter. Assuming average cell phones sell for $200 and iPhones stay at $650 average selling price you would see sales for other phones reaching $336 Billion. The iPhone would gross $146 billion and 30% of the gross dollar sales. I imagine the profits would be easily more than 70% of the market place. If trends in ownership continue, there will be many more older iPhones in use around the world than other brands of phones. Usage stats could easily reach north of 20% of all phones. Not bad for a business that is dying!
    Sep 14 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple [View article]
    You are at least making an argument and not name calling. I am not sure what Apple's current market penetration is with the iPhone in Singapore. The most likely possibility is that they have very few sales there from direct sources and not the grey market. If that is the case then the growth cited could easily be buried under the average of the much larger selling territories like Japan, and China. As an example in India, Apple's growth was over 100% recently because of some sales they were running. Of course, 100% growth of a number near 0 is still only a number that is twice as big.

    Cherry picked marketing stats are horrible in the US. I can't imagine they are likely to be much better in Singapore. The real point is Samsung's sales have dropped and Apple's were growing. If you follow the cell phone business closely you would be aware of how deadly it is to the latest and greatest company on the block. Nokia, Blackberry, Sony, Erricson....the bodies strewn over the playing field are ugly. Apple is definitely in the sharks tank, but they have more control of their destiny. They hold a lead in several area's but the biggest one is optimization and security. No one else has been able to climb the twin hills of device production, and software development. Apple has a 30 plus year history of doing both at the same time.
    Sep 14 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Money Supply Statistics For Market Predictions [View article]
    I am interested in more comments on this by those with more economic education than I have gotten. The best explanation of the Federal reserve system was the description of how banks evolved in a gold based currency system. The banks were either gold smiths or others with a supply of gold and a secure place to store it. The loans made to community members was actually how the money supply was increased. The goldsmith would loan out gold to a tavern manager who wanted to build a new tavern in town. The tavern manager would then use the gold to buy the supplies and services that built his tavern, and to purchase his stock of beer. The merchants who sold him those supplies and services would then redeposit the gold he had borrowed into the goldsmith's vault where it would be safe from robbers. The goldsmith would now have a new asset, the paper loan that the tavern owner owed him, and all the gold would still be in his vault. Over time the banker learned that loaning the gold of his depositors 10 times over would be the safe limit to his business. Once he went beyond that limit then the chances were that too many of his depositors asking for their funds back in gold form and that would crash his bank. The other issue is economic growth will cause inflation in prices. If paper specie that replaced carrying around all the heavy gold and made a run on the bank less likely was allowed to replace gold in business circles too quickly, then inflation would result in less value being given even to gold since anyone could redeem the paper in gold and make purchases that way. One can only imagine the havoc raised by the gold reaching Spain from the America's.

    Our much more complex global market place money is created in several ways: bank loans make money, price increases in the stock market create money, increasing credit card usage, increased government debt, rising real estate markets, and rises in commodity prices and stocks are all other examples that increase the money supply. Reduction in any of those values has the same effect in reverse of reducing the money supply. One reason the Fed's actions after 2008 did not cause inflation was the Fed and the Federal government were replacing asset values that had been swept from the system by market pricing.

    This article seems way too simplistic to really have any connection to the complex reality of the modern money system. It may even be correct in the specific claims, but the argument does not have support of enough economic understanding to convince me.
    Sep 14 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 Market Impacts [View article]
    At twice the average selling price to boot!
    Sep 10 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 Market Impacts [View article]
    I suspect that Samsung is more responsible for Apple's inability to get a larger screen than Apple was. Apple depended on it's top competitor for key components and I suspect that Samsung used access to it's best screens to demand a larger cut of Apple's iPhone income. This would have happened 2 or 3 years ago and required Apple to invest the time to support the building of competing factories to support their ecosystem.
    Sep 10 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 Market Impacts [View article]
    How does Apple Pay work for a traditional restaurant? The bill is presented and the server has to go to the central machine to get the approval of the card. Won't this require wireless devices to work properly in a restaurant? The server will have to carry the cell phone to the device or the device to the cell phone. Neither of those situations are nearly as elegant as Apple is describing. This will require a cashier to work in my business. So I either have a new expense in equipment or I have a new expense in salaries. It does not seem to be an easy solution.
    Sep 10 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    I like the way you hedge using common sense. I do not know what plug is and I am going to be looking it up. I am more of a bull for Tesla over the long term, but the amount of volatility it will face over the next couple of years makes taking a long position very iffy. I have also learned that the macro economic picture can be way more important to the price then the actual performance of the underlying company. The key to using a short to build a long position in Tesla is to avoid being to greedy.
    Aug 20 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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