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jd123

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  • Is Battling Deflation the New 'New Thing' Again? [View article]
    Credit rating gets downgraded, interest rates plunge, and Bernanke gets fresh political cover for further measures to stick the iron boot deeper into the throats of the world's savers and creditors...

    Oh Fate, why must you make it so easy for the Dark Lord?
    Aug 9, 2011. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Double-Dip Surprises Economists Again [View article]
    Not to worry, think politicians and the media; that's just a problem for renters. It's not like this hurts actual human beings.
    May 15, 2011. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turning to trading, Stan Druckenmiller says it's "complete nonsense" to believe low Treasury yields reflect a market copacetic with the state of government finances. "The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer (the Fed's QE) of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." Druckenmiller is long Treasurys.
       [View news story]
    Copacetic
    –adjective Slang .
    fine; completely satisfactory; OK.

    Heh, learn something new every day.
    May 15, 2011. 12:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Double-Dip Surprises Economists Again [View article]
    Thanks for mentioning municipal budgets leading to fears of higher local property taxes. I've actually not heard that point made before.
    May 9, 2011. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Double-Dip Surprises Economists Again [View article]
    "Also long-term interest rates, have an effect; although it's an "S" curve."

    What do you mean by that?
    May 9, 2011. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    More specifically, ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) went from $13.03 at last week's close to $24.34 at Thursday's close and $23.11 at this week's close. That's a 86.8% gain in 4 days and 77.4% gain for the week. Yes, it was a great week for silver bears to be greedy.
    May 7, 2011. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    Not having been alive back then... Would you say $10K in 1980 was better or worse than $100K today?
    May 7, 2011. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    About the original article... I don't think spot silver has closed yet today. But SLV has dropped by 27.56% since it's close last Friday. That would put this 4-day decline at #5 on author's list (yes, yes, I know SLV vs. spot silver isn't a completely fair comparison).
    May 5, 2011. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    No matter happens with margin requirements, couldn't one just buy those ETFs without using any leverage at all?
    May 5, 2011. 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Enters Bear Market [View article]
    Well said. This would be a lot more fun to watch if I wasn't holding GLD... Really, sell in May and go away... I didn't think it would be that simple.

    @punkandy26 Actually, I'd say silver took the elevator up and the window down.
    May 5, 2011. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    Looking at that table.... The surprising thing is not the historic plunge in silver this week, but rather the fact that there were several even steeper drops in the past. I think it brings into perspective just how crazy 1980 was.
    May 5, 2011. 11:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Questions for Bernanke's Critics [View article]
    While naturally low rates are certainly not as bad as artificially low rates, this is not to say to say that naturally low rates don't have some nasty consequences. Low rates, artificial or not, bail out people who like to spend to infinity with no regard for the consequences, while punishing those who deserve it least. In a world without corruption, I'd even recommend governments intentionally undertax their citizens so as to run a (moderate) deficit and thus boost interest rates.

    Look, this isn't just about economics; it's about the difference between justice and injustice, between right and wrong. Interest rates are the voice of the of the truly little guys against the truly powerful...

    - of the taxpaying renter making $15K/year against the "poor, poor" homeowners on the next block who make $250K/year and get to write off every penny
    - of the retiree living off his life savings, against the endless greed of a government that never satisfied by it's existing income, always seeks to borrow more and then free-ride off inflation
    - of the people who seek the rightful fruits of 20 years of hard work and living within their means, against those who want the same reward for 20 minutes of lying on a mortgage application.

    When Ben Bernanke, the leader of America's central bank, deliberately and publicly tries to drive rates as low as possible, it isn't just an economic failure. Far more importantly, it's a moral failure.
    May 3, 2011. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Questions for Bernanke's Critics [View article]
    Indeed, it is theoretically possible to have naturally low interest rates, and in such a case, asset bubbles would be less likely to form (because of lack of leveraging) and less painful when they burst (because of the savings). But that is not the case with developed economies today, especially America. Here we have interest rates that are artificially being held down by the central bank, despite debt levels at post-WW2 highs and improved but still pathetic saving rates from the public.
    Apr 27, 2011. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Open Market Committee: Eyes were on inflation, but no surprises here: Longer-term inflation expectations are "stable," underlying measures are "subdued." Commodities pricing effects still "transitory"; near-zero rates maintained and will be for "extended period"; QE2 to end on schedule in June; unanimous vote.  [View news story]
    I see... Well, this was the most probable outcome. Maybe they'll follow the script from last time: Let QE expire as scheduled, raise false hopes of rate increases, then crush them with a fresh round of QE. I doubt it will be identical though, that would make them too predictable... Maybe this time, they'll bring the fist down much harder when they announce QE 3.

    If, as some people fear, there is a budget and debt ceiling stalemate that leads to a government shutdown, panic selling of Treasuries and a new financial crisis, the happiest man on earth will be Ben Bernanke. All he'll have to do then is sit around and do nothing for a month or two while the financial world burns and the Dow plunges several thousand points, and then go to a cowed and compliant Congress asking for "temporary" emergency powers to deal the crisis. He could then unleash a devastating new round of super-QE that results in the Fed controlling 50%+ of the Treasury market... Now I think this scenario is far more likely to not happen then happen; many dominoes that even the Fed can't control would have to fall in just the right way. But it's something I'm keeping in mind as Bernanke's plan A+.
    Apr 27, 2011. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed weighs next move; Bernanke to meet the press [View article]
    Well today's the big day: The FOMC decision and the first press conference for the Fed's new Minister of Truth. Even if you believe as I do that Bernanke's ultimate goal is to create a dystopian world of neverending very negative real interest rates, it's hard to say how he'll try to get there. Remember, QE 1 was indeed curtailed as originally scheduled. There was a considerable gap between then and QE 2, during which time plenty of reasonable people thought the end of ZIRP was only a few months away. The Fed will do whatever it thinks will result in the greatest transfer of wealth from savers and creditors to politically favored borrowers in the long run. Blatant, shocking (for the market) moves are probably not the way to do that, at least not at this point.

    Despite his total lack of honor and integrity, Bernanke is admittedly a very smart man. He was a professor at Princeton for decades, an institution that I greatly respect. It's just a shame that he's used his knowledge to advance the greedy, selfish interests of those in power rather than for the benefit of mankind.

    Good luck, and try not to lose your shirt today.
    Apr 27, 2011. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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