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  • European Crisis Postponed; Investors Face Momentous Decision [View article]
    James - great article - one to keep on the wall next to my desk.
    I'm a bit with Rich W. The Australian market (that I trade within) is up about 14% from the Oct 4 bottom, and currency is up 13% (v. USD) - so about 29% in USD terms. SP500 (futures) is up about 19% from the recent bottom. The SP500 rose about 25% from the "arguably more panic driven" Nov 08 bottom, before falling again.
    I also think there will be a "gotcha" arising from some angle.
    . . . Italy reforming . . . Banks as volunteers helping Greece . . . E1t in leveraged guarantees - that's it . . . France on the edge of losing AAA . . . finding investors for the ESFS . . . there is still a lot that could disappoint even very short term.
    Oct 27, 2011. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Ideas For Europe, Copper, Tech And CDSs [View article]
    Enjoying your thoughtful writings. Thanks for the David Goldman link. However I am dubious as to whether it is this simple. I agree that these guarantees can make a huge difference. However (as a start) are the stronger Euro zone countries going to allow this guarantee to take place without (for example) demanding austerity from Spain and Italy. It would be silly to guarantee a bad borrower without demanding changes. Regarding austerity - the top ten (or twenty) international sources of revenue (indirectly in many cases) for many companies would surely include the USA, UK, Italy, France, Spain. These sources of revenues look like they will significantly diminish, and any Euro zone agreement will be a further push in this direction. So I can't really be optimistic I'm afraid. I think earnings are headed down.
    Oct 25, 2011. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks, Credit Events, and Sovereign CDS [View instapost]
    Good article and I largely agree.
    As an extension to what you have written that I thought you might find interesting . . . The Euro governments may need to sack a lot of "banksters" to gain cooperative management. If so, I doubt the markets will remain calm through this process.

    It seems that Deutsche and other banks will be playing games to avoid being recapitalised. Maybe they see the game as follows:
    If we (banks) are not recapitalised, then the Euro governments will have no choice but to bail out the PIIGS instead of us. Then we do not suffer losses and will look like heroes. However if we banks are recapitalised, then the Euro governments can allow defaults on sovereign debt and we (banks) will wear losses and look like idiots.
    In effect maybe the banks are trying to be bailed out by avoiding doing the right thing and derisking themselves. If this is the case - what sort of beneficial institutions are they in their current form? Are they blackmailers and economic vandals? I may be on the wrong tangent here - we will find out soon enough I guess.
    Oct 14, 2011. 12:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Pete and I'm Long. It's been 36 days since I was long. [View instapost]
    Tried to edit my last comment so I sound less like an idiot. No luck. :-)
    Oct 4, 2011. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Pete and I'm Long. It's been 36 days since I was long. [View instapost]
    You were very clear on not being longer term bullish. Well you have been right as of the close - congratulations. Have to watch out when Bernanke speaks. Will be interested to see how far it goes.
    Oct 4, 2011. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Pete and I'm Long. It's been 36 days since I was long. [View instapost]
    Enjoyed your article. First comment status???
    You might well be right - but re equities the risk is a 4% downer at pre-open from events in Europe, and TED spread up another 10 points. Sounds like a better argument for sitting in cash and reloading the shorting pistol if you are right.
    I'd prefer to be adding to shorts on tonight's expected brief POMO rally, if it happens with so many expecting it - I would if I was in the right timezone.
    Oct 4, 2011. 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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