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kgroeppe

kgroeppe
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  • What Could Pull Silver Back Up? [View article]
    I read that the prices of silver and gold are being held down so that China can buy more at a cheaper price. What about the U.S.? Do we have any gold left? My suspicion is that we do not. Otherwise Ron Paul's call for a gold audit would have been honored. This country is bankrupt in every way - monetarily, morally, and in terms of leadership. I'm just waiting to see what the end will look like.
    Jul 21, 2014. 10:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Yellen Is Great For Gold [View article]
    The Fed has engineered a 97% depreciation in our paper currency during its century of incompetence and fraud, i.e., it has defrauded the working class out of much of its hard-earned money. Since 1999 the process has accelerated with repeal of Glass-Steagall. How long will it take to go the rest of the way? When the Roman gold coin reached .5% old content, the empire collapsed, not only economically but also socially and politically. Many people who should know better believe that we can merely substitute another currency and be back in the race again. That is not the way it works.
    When an economy collapses, there must be some entity to pay the bills. With a country like Argentina or Mexico, the big banks and the world economy take a hit, but it is small and causes no more than a blip in world economic activity. When an economic the size of ours collapses, it takes the whole world economy with it. With that goes the social and political structures also, because by that time the populace has completely lost confidence in everything, and does not know what to do.
    So what can we do? One fact we do not normally learn in history classes is that when Rome "fell" it was followed by Persia, India, China and the Arab countries. Only one government did not follow suit - The Byzantine Empire. Why? Because around 1100 the Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos did something no other head of state in history has ever done. The Byzantine coinage had gone from gold to silver to copper to base metals with its accompanying inflation, such as we are seeing now. By this time Alexios was in power, and he must have seen what was going on in the world around him, and he restored 100% gold coinage. The Byzantine economy was restored to health and the Empire lasted another 350 years when it was conquered by the Turks.
    Why can't we learn from Alexios? The change will involve some pain for everyone, but that is far better than what will happen otherwise. Do we want to leave behind us a healthy civilization ready to go another 1000 years, or do we want to leave only ruins? Time is running out, and that is one matter we cannot afford to put off.
    If our civilization does collapse,we can count on from 200 to 500 years to restore some kind of order. Until then we will be more like Somalia than Zimbabwe, ruled by warlords. This is no scare tactic. This happened around 1200 B.C. and again after the demise of Rome. We have overly romanticized the "nobles" and "knights" of the Middle Ages, but closer study reveals that they were warlords with their armed retinues. Is this what we want our legacy to be? We can joke about it and make puns on Yellen's name (I certainly have done my share), but we need to abolish the Fed and come up with better economists than we have now advising the government. They are what I call fake economists, because they have mindlessly embraced Keynesian economics. John Maynard Keynes did not invent Keynesian economics; the Romans did, and look where it took them.
    In 1835, Alexis de Tocqueville stated that the greatest threat to democracy was people voting themselves too many perks. We now know the truth in his statement, and it is time for us to adopt a more altruistic attitude, and admit that we have to pay for those perks, and begin to try to get this economy back on its feet. The past 6 years should have taught us an important lesson. If it hasn't, then we deserve whatever history has to dish out to us, and if we do not act now, that reckoning will be coming much sooner than we realize right now.
    By the way, there is one economic lesson I can impart here, which has great pertinence in the here and now. We are told that inflation is running about 1.5%, but the figures used to compute this figure are selected. Inflation manifests in three ways:
    1. increase in prices
    2. decrease in quantity
    3. decrease in quality
    Have you looked at the size of the containers of food you buy in the grocery, or have you noticed the quality of cloth in your most recent clothing purchases?
    Now you can decide how serious inflation is at present.
    Feb 14, 2014. 12:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold And Silver Will Break To New Lows, Then Rise [View article]
    Great Article. This period reminds me of 1974-75, before gold and silver really took off. The three-part gold/silver bull market really applies to the 70's.
    I tell people now that the terrorists are wasting their time, that the Federal Gov't is doing a much better job. If you really study history, as I have, you get a very good idea of what is going on now. John Maynard Keynes did not invent "Keynesian economics". The Romans beat him to it 2,000 years ago. He just repeated their mistake. Read chapter 3 of The Climax of Rome by Michael Grant if you want to see how the US and Rome are correlated.
    Dec 26, 2013. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The bounce in precious metals takes a breather, with gold (GLD) off 1.6% and silver (SLV) off 1.2%. It's more tough news for John Paulson after his gold fund reportedly lost 27% in April, bringing the YTD loss to about 47%. Add David Einhorn to those taking a hit: "We were somewhat surprised by the swift decline," he said on the GLRE earnings call (transcript), especially given the BOJ's joining in "the global monetary printing race." Einhorn sees nothing to change his long-term bullish stance. [View news story]
    I read that the government "loaned" much of our gold to the big banks
    who sold it. Is this really true? Sounds like Nixon selling gold to try to control the price of gold, and we know how that worked.
    Nobody wants to really think about what will happen when the dollar collapses, but that is really serious business, and will be with us for centuries. But people tend to deny the possibility of any events which are too painful to consider. That doesn't mean that people like me are wrong; it just means that people are too indolent to act in the face of real danger, or they may actually want it to happen.
    May 7, 2013. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Really Need To Stop Trading Gold And Silver [View article]
    I totally agree. Think about those who bought gold 40 years ago at $100 - 300 an ounce. I wish I had been so wise. The price of gold now fully reflects the inflation that has taken place since Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971. Those who bought then have had 100% protection from the caprices of the lawyers (aka Congress). Meanwhile, they still think that if they can pass a few more stupid laws, everything will be hunky-dory.
    Apr 22, 2013. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals claw back another chunk of recent panicky losses, gold +2.5% to $1,430/oz., and silver +2.2% to $23.47. GLD +2.4%, SLV +1.9% premarket. [View news story]
    Remember the Byzantine Empire!! In a world that was collapsing, not only Rome, but Persia, India, China and the Arab World. the Byzantines continued until the most extreme of outside pressures until 1452, when the Renaissance was beginning. Why??? Because it finally reverted to the gold standard. This is the only way out for us, and as long as we persist in destroying our own economy, we run the risk of complete collapse, just as Rome did, and for the same reasons, depreciating the money to finance non-productive, useless wars. If the government will not protect our interests, then we must step in and do the job ourselves, by quietly acquiring gold and silver ourselves.
    By the way, if you can, check out the National Historical Museum in Athens, which has an awe-inspiring chronological collection of Byzantine coins. This will illustrate my point.
    Apr 22, 2013. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Problem With The Fed [View article]
    No one wants to admit a simple fact at this point. When an individual goes bankrupt, they consider it a temporary setback that they can eventually recover from in a few years, but when a nation goes bankrupt, it's curtains. Greenspan and Bernanke have reversed the good that Volker did 3 decades ago. These guys have set us up for a runaway inflation in the fairly near future, which is the end result of a currency constantly declining in value for a long period of time.
    Example; When Germany was required to pay all of the expenses for WW I by the Treaty of Versailles, it led to the runaway inflation of 1923-24, in which the value of the Mark was destroyed. With it went the democratic government which had been established, and the end result was the Hitler dictatorship and WW II.
    Another example: During the Empire period of Rome, the gold content of the solidus was systemically reduced to pay for the gratuitous wars pursued by the government. The gold content went from 100% to .5%, and when it reached that point, the empire collapsed and with it went the entire culture, as well as all other central governments of Europe and Asia. The problem with the Near East is that they are trying to emerge from the Middle Ages that the West left behind 500 years ago the product of the collapse of Rome. China is still in the beginning stages of recovering from that financial and cultural disaster.
    In our own day, Zimbabwe has been going through the same process, which, from my reading, is almost complete. Who knows what kind of government will follow the present one. Will it be better, or even worse? There is no example in history of better government following such a disaster.
    The question that no one is asking now is what will follow the insane policies of the Fed once the current scenario has run its course? The amount of debt is beyond the power of this country to pay, especially when you consider the future obligations and the continuing addiction to military actions over the entire world in addition to the current debt level. Viewed from a historical perspective, the future does not look favorable. Will we see a complete collapse of government or possibly a military dictatorship leading to a complete collapse?
    Feb 8, 2013. 06:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Silver And Silver Wheaton Peaked? [View article]
    I get this feeling that someone in the background is manipulating gold and silver prices. Look at it this way. If they increase very much, more people will see the fray in our economic system, and begin buying. Right now, it is just those who are somewhat ahead of the curve. The government and the big banks have a vested interest in keeping the fantasy alive as long as possible. They are not like the Byzantines, who, when they saw their economy was beginning to fall apart, returned to the gold standard, and therefore gave their economy and their nation several centuries more time. We can look down on the Byzantines for their corruption (although the U.S. is now good competition), but they had the best economic crisis management in history.
    I have studied history for the past fifty years, and the historic model I've developed is probably unique. It covers 5,000 years and shows where we are today. The bottom line is we need intelligent leadership and an informed public. The "cliff" I see is not one that will respond to the band-aid treatments that are being bandied about today. It calls for a complete overhaul of our political and economic system with no favorites to gum up the system. The cliff I see is very, very high and it will require centuries to laboriously climb back up again. "Equality for all" should be our motto, rather than "Give it all to the banksters."
    Jan 17, 2013. 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Why Bill Gross Is Wrong [View article]
    Economically I believe the present time has a lot in common with the 70's. That was a period when gold and silver were becoming the preferred investments. After Nixon closed the "gold window" and Americans could once again own gold legally, the price increased by about 600%, but during the middle of the decade the price stagnated for a couple of years before taking off again. There was a deep recession at that time, and unemployment was high, and this was most likely the limiting factor. Today, we have high unemployment, and many working people are just trying to survive. This could be a factor in the pricing of the metals during the past two years.
    Keeping interest rates on investment could be a limiting factor now, and the low interest rates on mortgages, although credit card interest seems not to have declined much if at all.
    I think that metals prices are in a bubble, as in the 70's, and the expansion of the bubble will begin again at some point. This is just a temporary respite. Remember that the stock market bubble of the '80s and 90's went through a couple of pauses before the final blowout.
    And remember that gold and silver are real money, and the price volatility we are seeing reflects more on the relative value of paper currency rather than on the intrinsic value of the metals.
    Jan 17, 2013. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Institute For Economic Research Says Consumer Prices Rising At 22.8% Per Annum [View article]
    The problem is that, during that time, both government and individual debt has increased to frightening levels. The second income is necessary just to preserve the myth that times are better. The cars are smaller than they were 30 or 40 years ago, and they contain more plastic and less metal so that they will confirm to government-mandated fuel standards. Over the years, houses are built of cheaper materials, which do not last as long. I see houses that were built well over a century ago. The one I own is about 150 years ago, and I defy anyone to even build a house with the quality materials used in its construction. Over the years we have insulated and added features that no houses had when it was built, but the essential construction is better than anything being done today.
    I read that the buying power of the dollar as declined about 80% since 1971, when Nixon closed the "gold window." That in itself is a valid argument against your contention that we are better off now. I paid $7200 for my '78 Ford V8. A similar car, if you could buy it today would cost you about $35,000. Find a car now that has a real metal bumper, which is an important safety feature.
    Jan 17, 2013. 04:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Institute For Economic Research Says Consumer Prices Rising At 22.8% Per Annum [View article]
    I wish you could answer a question, but I don't think you could, because you have not seen the amount of evidence I have uncovered proving that Western Society is being destroyed by extreme greed and abuse of power. I am 71 years old, and I have devoted my life to the study of history. I have read books and papers by most of the most highly regarded scholars of any age. I have collected more than 20 indicators which show that the current civilization is in a state of collapse. Such collapse occurs so slowly that the average person cannot understand the subtle changes which take place during their lifetimes. Such a collapse takes place over a period of centuries. For example, the collapse of Rome began from the establishment of empire. The collapse of Ancient Egypt required at least two centuries but probably more. The lack of good written records are a significant handicap, but the fact that Egypt and the empires of the Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, and Greeks collapsed at close to the same time. As I stated before the civilizations of Rome, Persia, India, the Arabs, and China collapsed within a historically brief period. In our own time the empires of Spain, the Ottomans, Germany (twice), Japan, the Soviets, Britain, France, Portugal and Belgium have all disintegrated in just over a century. All were the result of inflation and governmental mismanagement. Some are subtle, like the Federal Student Loan Guarantees which have caused a much greater inflation in the cost of education at a time when the job market for college grads is shrinking. This is another symptom.
    I had the hope that I might be able to get my research out there, and bring about a more rational approach to economics and government, so that we might be spared the privations which earlier civilizations had to endure. Remember that the two periods mentioned were followed by the so-called "Greek Middle Ages" and the Roman fiasco by the Middle Ages. So far nothing has happened, although I perceive that the process has accelerated noticeably since 1999.
    I am writing a book on the subject, but so much time is required to check and recheck all of the information, that the writing is proceeding at a very slow pace. In it I will present all of the evidence I have collected over the years, as well as the background to important historical events which the specialists, to my knowledge, have not discovered. This is a serious endeavor. I did not set out to prove anything, and I had no preconceptions, but after a few decades, the conclusions became inescapable.
    As I said, I would love to be proven wrong, but my reading of the evidence has convinced me that that is unlikely.
    So, is everyone going to continue to reject my thesis without considering all of the evidence, or will someone at some time, decide to look at it and consider its validity?
    Ken Groeppe
    Jan 17, 2013. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Institute For Economic Research Says Consumer Prices Rising At 22.8% Per Annum [View article]
    I have earned 3 grad degrees in history and research. I did not realize it when I began my work a half century ago, but about a decade ago, I realized that I was building a long-range historical model which can do a rough prediction of the future. One thing I discovered is that we could learn more from the Byzantine Empire than from any other government in history. This was the only Eurasian government to survive the Middle Ages. Rome. Persia, the Gupta Empire of India, the Arab world and China all collapsed or were conquered during this time, but the Byzantines, despite all of the corruption, survived until it was finally conquered by the Turks as the Renaissance was beginning. This government made one decisive move which saved their economy. They reinstituted the gold standard.
    Read chapter 3 of Michael Grant's The Climax of Rome and compare with what the U.S. has been doing for the past century, and you will see the relevance of history to the here and now. Most people do not understand the relevance of history to us because the scholars have not done their job. History is cyclical, and we need to understand that cyclicality to be able to construct viable long-term plans for our civilization.
    The high inflation rate (and climbing) should be a wakeup call for us to revise our thinking on how we want to reorganize our society. If we do not, the future will reorganize it for us.
    Recently, there was an article in Scientific American describing the EU's plan to finance the building of a machine to predict the future. It would cost a billion dollars. All they need to do is to research the three historical cycles which have taken place during the past 5,000 years to accomplish the same task better and for a lot less money.
    Jan 16, 2013. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Institute For Economic Research Says Consumer Prices Rising At 22.8% Per Annum [View article]
    We need to get some real economists in D.C. instead of the pretenders like Bernanke, Summers, et al. They are mindless automatons who do what they expect the politicians to approve of, regardless of the effect it has on our lives and livelihoods. And all the politicians are focused on is lying so they can get reelected. When are people going to wise up?
    Jan 16, 2013. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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