ZignalsApps' Instablog ZignalsApps integrates the most advanced capabilities of Zignals trading tools with Seeking Alpha's depth of content to offer convenience and research horse power, all on a single page. ZignalsApps delivers in two forms: [1] Powerful investing applications suited to your individual needs [2] A suite of tools with cross-application support. You decide what's best for you. ZignalsApps http://seekingalpha.com/user/704258/instablog PatternDNA of the Week: AJGFD http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/704258-zignalsapps/181667-patterndna-of-the-week-ajgfd?source=feed 181667 pattern appeared in Baidu (BIDU). At a neutral Match setting the pattern was found only 28 times from 18 stocks over the past year. It opens with a strong bullish day and is followed by a sequence of three bearish days before finishing with a modest bullish day. It is similar in appearance to the more commonly known "Rising Three Method" continuation pattern. 



It had an interesting dynamic between short term, and trade performance. Short term performance improved as the match conditions tightened, but the long(er) term trade performance - as measured by Average Return per Trade (Average Return per Trade applies an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) - fell.  
 
Match No. of
Patterns		 1-day
% Win		 2-day
% Win		 5-day
% Win		 Average Return
Per Trade (> 5 day)
Weakest 125 53 52 57 4.5
Weak 61 61 61 61 4.2
Neutral 28 64 67 66 3.9
Strong 6 83 83 83 2.6
Strongest 4 75 75 75 4.8

Unlike some of the former PatternDNA patterns we have featured, this particular one offered the most at the Weak match. Ordinarily, the Strong match tends to be the sweet spot for a particular pattern, but given the low sample size it's hard to be convinced on merit here. Also, at the Strong match, only half of the potential trades were profitable, compared to 61% at the Weak match (data not shown) - hence the higher Average Return per Trade. 

Baidu (BIDU) was one such stock with this pattern, but at the Weak Match there were 81 matches in the S&P and just 12 at the Neutral Match. 

One of the stocks in question was Chubb Corporation (CB). Chubb made a solid breakout in the middle of April and held those gains as the market headed south. It is nicely positioned to take advantage of the bullish implications of this pattern. 

Zignals Chart Image
]]> Thu, 26 May 2011 11:36:43 -0400 pattern appeared in Baidu (BIDU). At a neutral Match setting the pattern was found only 28 times from 18 stocks over the past year. It opens with a strong bullish day and is followed by a sequence of three bearish days before finishing with a modest bullish day. It is similar in appearance to the more commonly known "Rising Three Method" continuation pattern. 



It had an interesting dynamic between short term, and trade performance. Short term performance improved as the match conditions tightened, but the long(er) term trade performance - as measured by Average Return per Trade (Average Return per Trade applies an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) - fell.  
 
Match No. of
Patterns		 1-day
% Win		 2-day
% Win		 5-day
% Win		 Average Return
Per Trade (> 5 day)
Weakest 125 53 52 57 4.5
Weak 61 61 61 61 4.2
Neutral 28 64 67 66 3.9
Strong 6 83 83 83 2.6
Strongest 4 75 75 75 4.8

Unlike some of the former PatternDNA patterns we have featured, this particular one offered the most at the Weak match. Ordinarily, the Strong match tends to be the sweet spot for a particular pattern, but given the low sample size it's hard to be convinced on merit here. Also, at the Strong match, only half of the potential trades were profitable, compared to 61% at the Weak match (data not shown) - hence the higher Average Return per Trade. 

Baidu (BIDU) was one such stock with this pattern, but at the Weak Match there were 81 matches in the S&P and just 12 at the Neutral Match. 

One of the stocks in question was Chubb Corporation (CB). Chubb made a solid breakout in the middle of April and held those gains as the market headed south. It is nicely positioned to take advantage of the bullish implications of this pattern. 

Zignals Chart Image
]]> bidu cb PatternDNA - CANSLIM Analysis May 26th http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/704258-zignalsapps/181642-patterndna-canslim-analysis-may-26th?source=feed 181642 recent CANSLIM scan introduced Agrium (AGU) at the expense of F5 Networks (FFIV) So what's the PatternDNA outlook for the coming five days in these eight stocks?

PatternDNA projections are derived from a pool of 18 U.S. stocks. Expected returns and win probabilities are calculated from patterns matched in stocks over the past year and performance assessed from the next open price after the pattern completes. The Average Return per Trade is based on the use of a trailing target and stop, and assumes a long position bought at the next open price (Initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%).


Collectively, the outlook for the coming five days is relatively neutral. Only Baidu (BIDU) offered a projection of substance, with Research in Motion (RIMM) and Barrick Gold (ABX) behind.

PatternDNA projected a 60%+ probability of a higher close for days 1, 2 and 5 after the Pattern completes in Baidu (BIDU). However, the performance of this Pattern when a trailed stop is employed is more modest given the projected win percentage for a profitable long trade is below 60%.

Barrick Gold (ABX) offers the brightest trading opportunity when a trail stop is employed; near 70% winners with an Average Return per Trade of 4.5%. Research in Motion (RIMM) exhibits a Pattern with the highest projected Average Return per Trade of 6.0%; this from 66% winning trades and a 63% probability for a higher close next Wednesday.

While the May 3rd outlook failed to live to expectations, oversold market conditions may offer more here.]]> Thu, 26 May 2011 09:50:52 -0400 recent CANSLIM scan introduced Agrium (AGU) at the expense of F5 Networks (FFIV) So what's the PatternDNA outlook for the coming five days in these eight stocks?

PatternDNA projections are derived from a pool of 18 U.S. stocks. Expected returns and win probabilities are calculated from patterns matched in stocks over the past year and performance assessed from the next open price after the pattern completes. The Average Return per Trade is based on the use of a trailing target and stop, and assumes a long position bought at the next open price (Initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%).


Collectively, the outlook for the coming five days is relatively neutral. Only Baidu (BIDU) offered a projection of substance, with Research in Motion (RIMM) and Barrick Gold (ABX) behind.

PatternDNA projected a 60%+ probability of a higher close for days 1, 2 and 5 after the Pattern completes in Baidu (BIDU). However, the performance of this Pattern when a trailed stop is employed is more modest given the projected win percentage for a profitable long trade is below 60%.

Barrick Gold (ABX) offers the brightest trading opportunity when a trail stop is employed; near 70% winners with an Average Return per Trade of 4.5%. Research in Motion (RIMM) exhibits a Pattern with the highest projected Average Return per Trade of 6.0%; this from 66% winning trades and a 63% probability for a higher close next Wednesday.

While the May 3rd outlook failed to live to expectations, oversold market conditions may offer more here.]]> aapl vale fcx abx bidu bbry nflx agu Active Screen - CANSLIM: May 25th http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/704258-zignalsapps/181310-active-screen-canslim-may-25th?source=feed 181310 Screener setup was as follows:



Apple (AAPL) has been dogged in its defense of $330 support. What had looked a bearish head-and-shoulder pattern has evolved into a more neutral consolidation. But $330 support is a battleline. Note the fast arriving 200-day MA, currently at $320, to help offer support if needed. 

Zignals Chart Image

Vale S.A. (VALE) delivered on its bearish head-and-shoulder pattern. It sliced $31 relatively easily, then struggled in a rally to break above this price.  The past couple of days have produced a "Death Cross" between its 50-day and 200-day MA, a sign a longer term downtrend is now in play. The fundamentals keep it in the screen, but price action is weak.

Zignals Chart Image
 
Barrick Gold (ABX) collapsed from a high of $55.74 on April 21st to a low of $45.01 on May 13th, cutting through both 50-day and 200-day MAs with relative ease. The May low marked a new reaction low for the year, undercutting the $46 bottom from January. A new lower higher (on this rally) will kick start a new downward trend for the stock. The past week has seen a modest rally, but the stock has it all to do to mount a comeback. First up is the 200-day MA sitting overhead at $49.07. 

Zignals Chart Image
 
Baidu (BIDU) is one of the rally stalwarts in recent months, but it too has its struggles. The stock lost support of its 50-day MA on May 13th and was rebuffed at this moving average following a rally on May 20th. A similar event played out in December 2010 and the stock was able to recover. Two levels of support are key here: $130 in the short term with a second, stronger tier, around $120.
 
Zignals Chart Image
When the overall market floundered, Research in Motion (RIMM) was already in the mire. The past few weeks haven't changed anything. The stock is down at September 2010 lows ($42.84) and is well away from its 200-day MA at $52.97. Back in February 2011 the stock traded at high of $70.54.

Cognizant Technology (CTSH) is another high flyer for the past year. Early May saw the stock gap below its 50-day MA and then drift lower. It's currently trading just above its 200-day MA at $70.83. The sizable gap breakdown (on volume) will be a point of supply on the next advance, but value buyers may be tempted to take a look here.

Zignals Chart Image

Netflix (NFLX) has the best looking chart of the eight stocks. The stock is currently pressuring $250 resistance. Any existing shorts will be squeezed by buyers on the advancing 50-day MA (at $235.20). It's a relatively straightforward risk:reward play; buyers will take a heavier volume (at least double a 2-month average of volume) close above $250, stop on a loss of $225. 

Zignals Chart Image

Finally, Agrium (AGU) sneaks in at eighth spot. The chart isn't looking too great. The stock lost support of its 200-day MA in early May and hasn't made any serious attempt to regain it. There is an area of support around $78, but beyond that there isn't a whole lot until you get to $50. Not a stock you would want to bet the house on. 

Zignals Chart Image
]]> Wed, 25 May 2011 12:55:36 -0400 Screener setup was as follows:



Apple (AAPL) has been dogged in its defense of $330 support. What had looked a bearish head-and-shoulder pattern has evolved into a more neutral consolidation. But $330 support is a battleline. Note the fast arriving 200-day MA, currently at $320, to help offer support if needed. 

Zignals Chart Image

Vale S.A. (VALE) delivered on its bearish head-and-shoulder pattern. It sliced $31 relatively easily, then struggled in a rally to break above this price.  The past couple of days have produced a "Death Cross" between its 50-day and 200-day MA, a sign a longer term downtrend is now in play. The fundamentals keep it in the screen, but price action is weak.

Zignals Chart Image
 
Barrick Gold (ABX) collapsed from a high of $55.74 on April 21st to a low of $45.01 on May 13th, cutting through both 50-day and 200-day MAs with relative ease. The May low marked a new reaction low for the year, undercutting the $46 bottom from January. A new lower higher (on this rally) will kick start a new downward trend for the stock. The past week has seen a modest rally, but the stock has it all to do to mount a comeback. First up is the 200-day MA sitting overhead at $49.07. 

Zignals Chart Image
 
Baidu (BIDU) is one of the rally stalwarts in recent months, but it too has its struggles. The stock lost support of its 50-day MA on May 13th and was rebuffed at this moving average following a rally on May 20th. A similar event played out in December 2010 and the stock was able to recover. Two levels of support are key here: $130 in the short term with a second, stronger tier, around $120.
 
Zignals Chart Image
When the overall market floundered, Research in Motion (RIMM) was already in the mire. The past few weeks haven't changed anything. The stock is down at September 2010 lows ($42.84) and is well away from its 200-day MA at $52.97. Back in February 2011 the stock traded at high of $70.54.

Cognizant Technology (CTSH) is another high flyer for the past year. Early May saw the stock gap below its 50-day MA and then drift lower. It's currently trading just above its 200-day MA at $70.83. The sizable gap breakdown (on volume) will be a point of supply on the next advance, but value buyers may be tempted to take a look here.

Zignals Chart Image

Netflix (NFLX) has the best looking chart of the eight stocks. The stock is currently pressuring $250 resistance. Any existing shorts will be squeezed by buyers on the advancing 50-day MA (at $235.20). It's a relatively straightforward risk:reward play; buyers will take a heavier volume (at least double a 2-month average of volume) close above $250, stop on a loss of $225. 

Zignals Chart Image

Finally, Agrium (AGU) sneaks in at eighth spot. The chart isn't looking too great. The stock lost support of its 200-day MA in early May and hasn't made any serious attempt to regain it. There is an area of support around $78, but beyond that there isn't a whole lot until you get to $50. Not a stock you would want to bet the house on. 

Zignals Chart Image
]]> aapl vale abx bidu bbry ctsh agu nflx PatternDNA Long & Short Update from April 27th http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/704258-zignalsapps/181249-patterndna-long-short-update-from-april-27th?source=feed 181249 Nine stocks were given the PatternDNA treatment before my vacation. These were:  Chimera Investment (CIM), Abbott Labortatories (ABT), Expedia (EXPE), Merck & Co. (MRK), First Energy (FE), Newmont Mining (NEM), Progressive (PGR), First Solar (FSLR), and Mastercard (MA).

Other than for Progressive (PGR), which offered a 77% and 70% probability for a higher close on the second and fifth day from the Pattern, there was no strong suggestion for a significant move in either direction from remaining stocks over the immediate 5-day outlook. At best, PatternDNA suggested an average probability of 56% for a higher close on the fifth day from the open price the day after the Pattern completed from the nine stocks.  

The eventual outcome was positive. Biggest gainer was First Energy (FE) at 6.6%. It was followed by Progressive (PGR) at 4.0% which fit well with PatternDNA's outlook. There were losses for Newmont Mining (NEM) and First Solar (FSLR) which lost -3.1% and -2.3% respectively, but remaining stocks added a couple of percentage points on the week.

The positive outlook offered by PatternDNA for Progessive (PGR) on both short and longer time frames held up well to scrutiny. Of the three projections above 60% PatternDNA scored two out of three and was two for two where the projection was above 70%.
]]> Wed, 25 May 2011 10:36:13 -0400 Nine stocks were given the PatternDNA treatment before my vacation. These were:  Chimera Investment (CIM), Abbott Labortatories (ABT), Expedia (EXPE), Merck & Co. (MRK), First Energy (FE), Newmont Mining (NEM), Progressive (PGR), First Solar (FSLR), and Mastercard (MA).

Other than for Progressive (PGR), which offered a 77% and 70% probability for a higher close on the second and fifth day from the Pattern, there was no strong suggestion for a significant move in either direction from remaining stocks over the immediate 5-day outlook. At best, PatternDNA suggested an average probability of 56% for a higher close on the fifth day from the open price the day after the Pattern completed from the nine stocks.  

The eventual outcome was positive. Biggest gainer was First Energy (FE) at 6.6%. It was followed by Progressive (PGR) at 4.0% which fit well with PatternDNA's outlook. There were losses for Newmont Mining (NEM) and First Solar (FSLR) which lost -3.1% and -2.3% respectively, but remaining stocks added a couple of percentage points on the week.

The positive outlook offered by PatternDNA for Progessive (PGR) on both short and longer time frames held up well to scrutiny. Of the three projections above 60% PatternDNA scored two out of three and was two for two where the projection was above 70%.
]]> cim abt expe mrk fe nem pgr fslr ma PatternDNA of the Week: HGGYZ http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/704258-zignalsapps/170999-patterndna-of-the-week-hggyz?source=feed 170999


The pattern performed strongest on the second day after the pattern, although at the Strong Match there was a low number of matches.

Match No. of
Patterns		 1-day
% Win		 2-day
% Win		 5-day
% Win		 Average Return
Per Trade (> 5 day)
Weakest 165 55 60 57 5.4
Weak 62 59 66 60 4.7
Neutral 33 58 77 70 6.0
Strong 8 40 90 70 4.1
Strongest 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
 
Despite the strong outlook over the second and fifth day of the pattern, the picture over the longer term is more mixed. The Average Return Per Trade (Average Return Per Trade assumes an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) didn't exhibit a consistent return on increasing Match. Over the basket of 18 U.S. stocks the Average Return ranged from 4.1% to 6.0%

However, despite the inconsistent Average Return Per Trade the win percentage remained consistently high, ranging from 75-82%. So while a handful of outsized losses brought down the Average Return it's a regular winner.  

Running a Market Scan at a Neutral Match returned 12 matches. One of the 12 stocks was Mattel (MAT), a stock which recently enjoyed a breakout. Is this pattern a good omen going forward?

Zignals Chart Image
]]> Wed, 27 Apr 2011 10:53:57 -0400


The pattern performed strongest on the second day after the pattern, although at the Strong Match there was a low number of matches.

Match No. of
Patterns		 1-day
% Win		 2-day
% Win		 5-day
% Win		 Average Return
Per Trade (> 5 day)
Weakest 165 55 60 57 5.4
Weak 62 59 66 60 4.7
Neutral 33 58 77 70 6.0
Strong 8 40 90 70 4.1
Strongest 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
 
Despite the strong outlook over the second and fifth day of the pattern, the picture over the longer term is more mixed. The Average Return Per Trade (Average Return Per Trade assumes an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) didn't exhibit a consistent return on increasing Match. Over the basket of 18 U.S. stocks the Average Return ranged from 4.1% to 6.0%

However, despite the inconsistent Average Return Per Trade the win percentage remained consistently high, ranging from 75-82%. So while a handful of outsized losses brought down the Average Return it's a regular winner.  

Running a Market Scan at a Neutral Match returned 12 matches. One of the 12 stocks was Mattel (MAT), a stock which recently enjoyed a breakout. Is this pattern a good omen going forward?

Zignals Chart Image
]]> pgr mat Long and Short Ideas for April 27th http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/704258-zignalsapps/170964-long-and-short-ideas-for-april-27th?source=feed 170964 Paul Tudor Jones. How do these stocks look when given the PatternDNA treatment? The stocks are Chimera Investment (CIM), Abbott Labortatories (ABT), Expedia (EXPE), Merck & Co. (MRK), First Energy (FE), Newmont Mining (NEM), Progressive (PGR), First Solar (FSLR), Mastercard (MA)

Stock No. of
Patterns		 1-day
% Win		 2-day
% Win		 5-day
% Win		 Average Return
Per Trade ( > 5 day)
CIM 203 37 50 57 4.6
ABT 157 46 47 56 4.5
EXPE 355 48 46 57 4.7
MRK 69 43 49 59 5.1
FE 210 58 53 50 4.8
NEM 36 57 57 54 6.1
PGR 33 58 77 70 6.0
FSLR 77 54 48 51 4.7
MA 227 47 51 51 3.9

Progressive (PGR) offered the strongest outlook for tomorrow's and next week's close (from today's open price) for a higher close. PatternDNA suggests there is a 77% probability for a higher close on Thursday and a 70% probability for a higher close next Tuesday. Chimera Investment (CIM) was the only other projection of note with a 63% probability of a lower close today. The remaining seven stocks had a relatively flat outlook.

Over the three outlook days there was an average probability of 50%, 53% and 56% for a higher close for today, tomorrow and by next Tuesday. Not great odds.

The outlook over the longer term was more positive. An Average Return Per Trade (Average Return Per Trade assumes an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) of over 6.0% was projected for Newmont Mining (NEM) and Progressive (PGR). The pattern displayed for Progressive (PGR) was not only one which did well over the short term, but over the long term too. Of the 33 matches, 82% returned an average profit of 9.7%. Where it hurt was the 18% of trades which lost on average -10.6%, actually exceeding the protective stop threshold of 10%; when this pattern burned it burned you bad!

But looking beyond Progessive, the patterns on display across the nine stocks tended to favour bulls over the long term. The percentage of winning trades ranged from 59% for Merck (MRK) to the aforementioned 82% of Progressive (PGR). The average win percentage for the nine patterns was 66%.

So while the next 5-day outlook is a little mixed, over the longer term the patterns on show are more likely to deliver long side winners. 
]]> Wed, 27 Apr 2011 10:06:20 -0400 Paul Tudor Jones. How do these stocks look when given the PatternDNA treatment? The stocks are Chimera Investment (CIM), Abbott Labortatories (ABT), Expedia (EXPE), Merck & Co. (MRK), First Energy (FE), Newmont Mining (NEM), Progressive (PGR), First Solar (FSLR), Mastercard (MA)

Stock No. of
Patterns		 1-day
% Win		 2-day
% Win		 5-day
% Win		 Average Return
Per Trade ( > 5 day)
CIM 203 37 50 57 4.6
ABT 157 46 47 56 4.5
EXPE 355 48 46 57 4.7
MRK 69 43 49 59 5.1
FE 210 58 53 50 4.8
NEM 36 57 57 54 6.1
PGR 33 58 77 70 6.0
FSLR 77 54 48 51 4.7
MA 227 47 51 51 3.9

Progressive (PGR) offered the strongest outlook for tomorrow's and next week's close (from today's open price) for a higher close. PatternDNA suggests there is a 77% probability for a higher close on Thursday and a 70% probability for a higher close next Tuesday. Chimera Investment (CIM) was the only other projection of note with a 63% probability of a lower close today. The remaining seven stocks had a relatively flat outlook.

Over the three outlook days there was an average probability of 50%, 53% and 56% for a higher close for today, tomorrow and by next Tuesday. Not great odds.

The outlook over the longer term was more positive. An Average Return Per Trade (Average Return Per Trade assumes an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) of over 6.0% was projected for Newmont Mining (NEM) and Progressive (PGR). The pattern displayed for Progressive (PGR) was not only one which did well over the short term, but over the long term too. Of the 33 matches, 82% returned an average profit of 9.7%. Where it hurt was the 18% of trades which lost on average -10.6%, actually exceeding the protective stop threshold of 10%; when this pattern burned it burned you bad!

But looking beyond Progessive, the patterns on display across the nine stocks tended to favour bulls over the long term. The percentage of winning trades ranged from 59% for Merck (MRK) to the aforementioned 82% of Progressive (PGR). The average win percentage for the nine patterns was 66%.

So while the next 5-day outlook is a little mixed, over the longer term the patterns on show are more likely to deliver long side winners. 
]]> cim abt expe mrk fe nem pgr fslr ma