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  • PatternDNA Long & Short Update from March 25th

    Last week's ten stocks came from Kapitall and featured downtrending stocks with low cash to operating expenses. Last week's best-of-the-bunch, PAETEC Holding Corp (NASDAQ:PAET), was the second best performer on the week finishing 3.1% higher. Best of the bunch was Cedar Shopping Centers (NYSE:CDR) at +3.8%.

    The two stocks with a bearish projection:Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) and U.S. Airways (LCC) had a more mixed week. The former closed the week down -1.1%, the latter finished slightly higher at +0.2%. Not a great return, but at least offering some consensus to projections.

    In total, PatternDNA got 63% of projections correct and performed well given the net Return across the 10 stocks was quite low. The worst performing stock finished down -3.1% while the best was up +3.8%. In the prior week, the worst performing stock lost -25.1% and the best performing stock finished up 15.2%!

    The overall projection (from the 10 stocks) for 1-, 2- and 5-day Performance was a coin toss - so nothing to add in this respect.

    Tags: PAET, CDR, TGT, AAL
    Apr 01 11:15 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Active Screen - CANSLIM: April 1st
    For this week the Top-8 as ranked by Market Cap are Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE), Free McMoran (NYSE:FCX), Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Research in Motion (RIMM), Cognizant Technlogy (NASDAQ:CTSH), and Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG). The Screener setup was as follows:



    Apple (AAPL) continues to hold the 50-day MA, but hasn't excluded the possibility of a head-and-shoulder reversal.



    Vale S.A. (VALE)  continues to advance towards its 50-day MA which sits at $33.86. Should see it tested over the coming days.

    Free McMoran (FCX) is a step ahead of Vale S.A. (VALE) having already pushed beyond its 50-day MA. Stops can go on a break of $51.70.

    Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) is trading inside a consolidation. This will end when the stock breaks above $53.00 or drops below $48.00 (and/or 200-day MA). The 50-day MA has ticked higher, aligning the intermediate trend back in the bulls favour.

    Baidu (BIDU) has enjoyed a stellar advance, brushing off the prior period of market weakness and moving to new multiple year highs. Illustrated are two potential resistance levels for rising channels (and upside targets).



    Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) also performed strongly the past week. It bear trapped when it gapped below $74 but subsequently recovered to drive past $78. A couple of tight trading days sets up a swing trade opportunity with momentum favouring a continuation of the advance. 



    Research in Motion (RIMM) had a rough week. Gapping from its 50-day MA down to its 200-day MA. Prospects don't look great but bulls will need the 200-day MA to stick as support, otherwise $44 beckons.

    Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has spent the past couple of months defending its breakaway gap. It has now started to rise alongside its 50-day MA and will soon be pressuring the last reaction high at $345.27. Another good play for bulls.
    Tags: AAPL, FCX, VALE, BIDU, CTSH, ISRG, BBRY, ABX
    Apr 01 10:12 AM | Link | Comment!
  • PatternDNA Pattern of the Week: IJFGB
    One of the more unusual Patterns for this week; found in PAETEC (NASDAQ:PAET) and featuring just 69 matches at the Neutral Match level. The pattern is built around a central bearish day and buffered by mildly bullish/bearish days. 



    Match
    Level
    Patterns
    Found
    1-Day
    % Win
    2-Day
    % Win
    5-Day
    % Win
    Average Return
    Per Trade
    Weakest 216 53 56 62 3.3
    Weak 108 57 59 61 3.9
    Neutral 69 59 59 61 5.1
    Strong 11 38 55 72 9.0
    Strongest 5 37 50 75 7.1

    The pattern has a very consistent fifth-day win percentage, averaging a higher close in 66% of cases. The Average Return Per Trade (Average Return Per Trade assumes an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) is not one to write home about, so it's not a pattern which builds out much beyond the 5 days. 

    The Strong Match has only eleven occurrences over the past year in our test bed of 18 U.S. stocks. In 72% of cases the trade was profitable based on the aforementioned risk metrics for Average Return Per Trade. Although the remaining 28% of trades which lost all exited at the initial stop of -10% (the profitable trades averaged +16.2%). 

    When we ran Market Scan for this pattern at the Strong Match it returned 8 stocks. Upgrading to Premium PatternDNA will give you access to these stocks. 

    Of those eight, in addition to PAETEC (PAET), there was a match for NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). The match substitued just one space: IJF-GB. NVIDIA (NVDA) has already rebounded quite sharply but has room to move to its 50-day MA. Stops can go on a loss of $17.00. Buying volume was good despite the sharp drop from $25s.


    Tags: NVDA, PAET
    Mar 25 10:23 AM | Link | Comment!
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