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Investor – Trader – Financial Mgmt – Retirement Planning – Software engineer Patriots Fan – Golfer – CNBC Fanatic https://twitter.com/fanvestments http://www.fanvestments.com Street Credit – 15 Years Market Study, Experience, and Investing Primary Strategy – Long/Short Equities &... More
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  • Tech-Take: Dow Jones US Total Market Index

    Looking at a long-term chart on $DWCF (Dow Jones US Total Market Index), 10-Year Weekly. The RSI Wilder is around the 69 level. Getting close to exhausted but not there yet, showing more room to the upside. Although, based on the last few tops, we are definitely in a danger zone. MACD also reaching danger levels for the Bulls, but still shows more gains in the short-term. From a performance stand point, $DCWF has made 7 weekly positive gains. The last occurrence of this started back in Sept. 2010, making 10 weekly gains in a row. It then had a short-term pause for 3 weeks or so, then went on for another 7 weeks of consec. weekly gains. Looks to me we could be in a similar pause phase of our current rally, and if we follow that 2010 action, we could be looking at another 6-7 weeks of gains after maybe another week of sideways markets.

    Looking at the second chart below, which is a 10-Year Monthly view, shows a few more perspectives. The price alone is at a crucial level @ 15,878. Last time we were close to these levels was back in 2007, which led to massive declines all the way to the 7K 2009 bottoms. Although, we have closed above this level two months in a row now, which leads way to more gains at this point. RSI is just starting to get heated up and could continue running for a couple of months. Slow Stoch. is in its overbought range, but not showing any mercy yet, also looks like it could continue at these levels.

    All in all, although mostly overbought, and at historical prices levels, my take here is we have more room to run. At least testing the 1575 $SPX level, which will make for some extremely important market decisions there. Will it make for yet another ceiling or this time become support for all new levels.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    The Fanvestor via @fanvestments

    www.fanvestments.com

    http://fanvestments.com/Terms_of_Use.html

    Disclosure: I am long SPY.

    Feb 17 3:42 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Tech-Take: Ford

    Looking at a Fibonacci chart on Ford shows F (Ford) is hanging right on its first retracement target of 23.6% at 13.11. This 13 level will be a critical support level for F to hold and start climbing, or per the current model, 38.2% would be the next target lower, with a price of 12.23.

    (click to enlarge)

    The Fanvestor

    http://wp.me/p2ZC4I-4V

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in F over the next 72 hours.

    Feb 17 3:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Stock Analysis Summary For CAT

    1/28/2013

    Analysis summary for CAT (NYSE:CAT)

    PE (NYSE:TTM) 9.79x vs the industry average of 14.62, a prices/sales ratio (TTM) of .93x, compared to an Industry Avg. of 1.33x, and an attractive PEG ratio of .70 compared to 1.4 Industry Avg. For the (MRQ), CAT is trading at 3.49x Price/Book, also cheaper than the industry of 3.83x.
    CAT Technicals:
    A collective view of the following indicators RSI, STO, TQI, Slow Stoch, AVI, looks to me as Bearish/Overbought, and just beginning its trend down to oversold levels.
    The next two viewpoints are the MACD and RSI Wilder. The MACD looks bullish, with room to go, and trending north. CAT last peaked after the MACD hit the 4 levels. The RSI Wilder looks bearish, being in its own danger zone playing with that 70 level for a while now.
    My opinion, CAT is cheap fundamentally, but Technicals will take control for the short-term in the bearish direction. Would look for levels to come back to its short-term MA's towards the 95 level. Will take a second look there to see if we hold, and re-check its overbought/oversold levels.

    The Fanvestor via @fanvestments

    #fanvestments #thefanvestor

    (Full Disclosure: No Position, now or in the next 3 days)

    http://fanvestments.com/Terms_of_Use.html

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: CAT
    Jan 31 12:16 PM | Link | Comment!
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