The author is the honourable CFA Scholarship recipient. His interests are in the technology, healthcare, consumer space and gaming. He is now an analyst with an asset management firm
His work in the buy side gives him access to the Bloomberg terminal, access to management and sell-side analysts. One can see that in every single piece of his article.
This is something you will not see anywhere else. When you follow me, you directly benefit from this service.
Here are some of my calls below: [Don't just take my word for it, check it out yourselves]
Articles (As of 1st October 2015)
1) Las Vegas Sands down 29% in 3 months since Sell initiation [http://seekingalpha.com/article/3390785-upgrading-bdx-before-results-announcement]
2) Alibaba down more than 30% in 3 months since Sell Initiation- http://seekingalpha.com/article/3432076-alibaba-down-more-than-10-percent-in-a-month-since-sell-report-reiterate-sell
3) China Distance Education up 16% in 2 weeks since Buy Initiation- http://seekingalpha.com/article/3538526-china-distance-education-holdings-up-15_9-percent-in-2-weeks-now-what
4) OnDeck Capital down 30% in less than a month since Sell Initiation - http://seekingalpha.com/article/3330155-ondeck-capital-initiation-report
Contributors: Scott Tzu, Parke Shall, Thom Lachenmann
(contributors write under pen names for anonymity purposes)
Please read Seeking Alpha's Policy on Anonymous Contributors to familiarize yourself with the site's terms and conditions relating to anonymous authors.
Managing partner of Quintessential Capital Management, an investment fund, and Zanshin Capital, an asset management company both focusing on long-only, absolute return, equity investments with a value approach.
I have started investing from an early age, but only in 2005 did I discover the wisdom and effectiveness of value investing. After reading every book I found on the subject, I studied for a short, but extremely profitable period, under the guidance of Prof. Bruce Greenwald of Colombia University, who specializes in value investing.
The core positions in my portfolio are classic Buffett-style franchises acquired at a discount and kept indefinitely. The idea is acquiring a company in a slow-changing industry with a protective moat and letting it compound for years.
Occasionally, I go for "cigar butt"-style investments, where a mediocre company is acquired at a steep discount. But, in general, I prefer the former type.
I focus on US stocks but do keep my eyes open for global opportunities as well.
Full-time investor. Formerly buy-side credit analyst (2yrs) covering Japanese + Asian companies. Before that, I was a cross asset derivatives salesperson at a large bulge-bracket firm, based in Tokyo (4yrs). I use Seeking Alpha to clarify and synthesize my investment thought process and to elicit feedback on my theses; additionally I like to connect with other investors and swap ideas.
You can read my finance-related blog at rapercapital.com (less organized than Seeking Alpha writeups, more my random musings on various finance-related topics).
Going forward I will try to tweet my investment-related thoughts/updates to articles/etc. You can follow me on Twitter, my handle is @puppyeh1
Always looking for new ideas across the board. Happy to exchange ideas/share thoughts/swap notes, feel free to private message me. I currently live in Singapore.
GS Analytics is a financial research firm focused on ideas where broader market is significantly overestimating or underestimating a company's potential resulting in mispricing in its stock price. We also look for potential catalysts which can help stock reach our target price. Our team consists of analysts with previous Buy-side/Sell-side experience as well as industry experts. Our investment process is primarily bottom-up and includes channel checks, management interviews, forensic accounting in addition to analyzing other information available in public domain. Some of our previous winners include multibaggers like Gentherm (THRM), American Woodmarks (AMWD) on the long side; and XPO Logistics (XPO), Franklin Electric (FELE) on the short side. You can contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
I've been investing full time for over 15 years. I use a proprietary model based on a modified Graham, DCF & PE analysis. Results can be viewed at our website (address below). As a result of past investment decisions I was able to turn my attention to full time investing & research which has always been my passion. This site & website below are the best forums to share ideas and research. I've also developed several financial analysis templates detailed on the IIEX website available to site supporters.
I am not in the brokerage/finance industry & am not a professional at finance or any related field. I have a degree in engineering although I spent most of my career in management & very little doing engineering calculations. Website: https://iiex.sharepoint.com
Dana Blankenhorn http://www.danablankenhorn.com has been a business journalist since 1978, and a futurist all his life.He warned about the coming Houston oil collapse in 1979. He began making a living on the Internet in 1985. He launched the first e-commerce daily for CMP in 1994, warned of the coming dot-bomb at a-clue.com in 1997 and began covering the Internet of Things in 2003.Along the way he's written for a host of newspapers, magazines, news services and Web sites. Most recently he was at TheStreet.com, covering technology and investments. He still has time for freelance assignments. He lives in Atlanta.
I have retired from a 35 years career in the semiconductor industry. I now have the time to do the deep research necessary for successful investing.
I freely provide investment information for friends and family.
I am a member of MENSA, which means precisely nothing except I wake up in the middle of the night doing pointless math problems in my head:)
Hello, my name is Bernardo Teixeira and welcome to my page! I'm currently an undergraduate student of Northeatern University majoring in Finance and Computer Science. My investment focus is majorly in value plays, and sometimes in portfolio strategy and macro trends. Since I'm originally from Brazil and I have lived in China for a few years I have a special passion for emerging market equities and investments outside of the United States. I'm currently following three industries; insurance, semiconductors, and airlines. As always please let me know if you have any comments about my articles!
In order to value a company we usually apply three different types of valuation:
1. Comparable Valuation: If we identify a company has enough comparable companies (usually around 4) and their corporate structures are similar to each other than we would likely value this company through a comparable valuation. In our opinion a comps val is not conclusive enough to know whether a company is being mis-priced by the market, but it provides enough information as to understand which stock of the bunch is the cheapest. Below is one good example of a comparable company and one bad one.
A very good example of a stock which we would rely on a comps val is Delta (DAL). Delta is in an industry which there is little product differentiation and airlines have similar corporate structures. In contrast Microsoft (MSFT) is a company which I probably would not use a comps val, because there is no other company that sells the same exact product line as MSFT.
In our comps valuation we use two different sets of ratios. Equity multiples such as P/E, P/S, P/B and PEG, and Enterprise multiples such as EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/ Gross Cash Flow. We try to have all our ratios in a forward looking manner using average analyst expectations whenever possible. We also might eventually exclude ratios from the calculation that are not conclusive enough or that have a high dispersion among players of the industry.
2. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: After completing our comps val my next step is to run a DCF valuation of the company. Usually our preference for a DCF is to not effectively predict what is going to happen in the future, but instead identify how the market is pricing the stock and stipulate three scenarios assumptions. These scenarios are used to estimate what are different analyst expecting from this company and whether those expectations are realistic or not. The bull case scenario reflects the highest analyst expectation, the base case the average, and the bear case the lowest. We also adjust margins accordingly as to reflect the opinion of analyst. For stocks that have a wide coverage this usually a good measure of the market's view of the company. In general we are only long companies that have a very attractive risk/reward ratio, in which the bull case fairly outstrip the base and the bear case is not significantly negative.
Another assumption we like to make is concerning the discount rates. In our opinion relying on CAPM to calculate the expected rate of returns is a very poor choice. There are many problems with CAPM that are not worth mentioning here. Instead we believe that using a base 8% discount rate subjectively adjusted by it the riskiness of the stock is a better approximation of the discount rate.
3. Return on Invested Capital Valuation: Another type of valuation that we like to use is the ROIC method. I'm still developing a model that can be successfully deployed for Seeking Alpha articles. Once I have it complete I will update our assumptions on our methodology.
Companies that we follow: Ping An (PNGAY), PICC (PPCCY), Copa Holdings (CPA), Cameco (CCJ), Qualcomm (QCOM), Noble Energy (NBL), Delta (DAL), Arotech (ARTX).
KL is a special situations and opportunistic fund, managing a concentrated portfolio. KL believes that minimizing losses in difficult periods is critical to generate attractive long term returns. The Fund’s objectives are to minimize losses and generate returns in excess of the special situation hedge fund index, which is expected to return 10% pa. over the next 3 years. KL’s competitive edge is its rare ability to combine detailed and independent value-investing research with a unique willingness and ability to trade special situation securities.
KL Investment Partners may change or exit its holdings (buy, sell, sell-short shares) without updating its Seeking Alpha articles and without informing the Seeking Alpha community.
KL's articles, blogs and comments are not an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy any securities. Securities of the Fund are offered to selected investors only by means of a complete offering memorandum and related subscription materials. There is the possibility of loss and all investment involves risk including the loss of principal.
I am a self-taught individual investor who primarily focuses on companies with abilities to generate strong cash flows and out compete others through differentiation or cost advantages. My philosophy is to buy companies at discounted prices with a strong understanding of their approximate value and sell out when the valuations can reasonably be seen as too generous. The future is meant to be protected against and not counted upon, therefore, industries that continually go through rapid change or rely heavily on exponential growth I stay away from. My background in economics (competitive behavior, industrial organization) and finance are what I rely upon when analyzing investments.
I am a self-taught investor. I look for stocks offering growth at a reasonable price and stocks that are undervalued. I am a member of an investment club and provide the majority of the research to the club. I am very interested in other active investors critiquing my research. I believe this critique will make me a better investor for both my own interests as well as the club's.
Dallas currently owns and operates as CEO an Austin-based enterprise consulting firm that specializes in private company lifecycle management, up to and including taking companies public, and in helping consult publicly traded companies ranging in market cap from $100 million to $500 million. He has a specialization in deal flow management and is often the referring and closing source of Joint Ventures and broader M&A. Dallas often works directly with management teams and Boards of microcap and stressed equity companies in which he or members of his professional network are heavily invested. This includes helping with overall strategy, helping with capital structure management, helping facilitate liquidity, helping facilitate Joint Ventures and broader M&A, and helping restructure the business segments if necessary. Recently Dallas has been interviewed by The Pittsburgh Business Times, The Banker, Columbus Business First, Houston Business Journal, The Deal, Energy Intelligence, and his tweets have been used by CNBC to highlight hot button issues regarding Carl Icahn, Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz’s takeover attempts at DuPont, etc. Dallas has also been quoted and sourced to by StreetSweeper.org, Marcellus.com, MarcellusDrilling.com, Bakken.com, OilOnline.com, and other physical and online publications. "One place of great inefficiency is in the stressed equity markets – or the markets in which a company appears as bankruptcy or a breakup is inevitable. As equities become stressed they often sell down to absurd levels of value that present, should there be value to be unlocked, opportunities for “venture level” returns. These often range in the 3X-10X range. With my unique ability to actually improve business outcomes by working directly with a company and management/Board I’m in a position, should I view the underlying business as salvageable, to directly improve the long-term viability of the company. I am NOT simply an investor in these names but an acting consultant. This allows me to “overlay my network” and to move the company away from a stressed or defaulting outcome and into an outcome probability that allows the equity price to move substantially higher. Identifying these opportunities has generated shareholders and investors thousands of percentage points in aggregate and is something I’m often recognized by paying subscribers for."
Have been investing for myself and my family for over 50 years. Retired sociology professor who also started and sold 3 retail stores over my career in teaching. Since I am retired, i am looking for stocks that pay dividends and offer some growth to keep up with inflation.
I'm a private, full time trader interested in both long and short ideas. My training and background are in engineering including a decade of consulting engineering practice. I've since switched over to investing/trading which I've done full time for 15+ years and to which I bring a contrarian style. I've also recently become interested in writing and have published editorials at Forbes, PJM, and a few legacy newspapers.
Leigh Drogen is the Founder and CEO of Estimize. Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side, and sell-side analysts, along with those of industry experts, private investors and students. By sourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of expectations compared to sell side only data.
Leigh started his career as a quant trader at Geller Capital, a White Plains, NY based fund where he ran strategies that looked at earnings acceleration and analyst estimate revision models, as well as price momentum and several sentiment indicators.
Leigh later went on to be the founder of Surfview Capital, a New York based asset management firm that used many of the same strategies as Geller Capital, with a focus on higher beta names on an intermediate term time frame.
His educational background includes focus in economics and international relations, specifically war theory. He is a graduate with honors from Hunter College in New York City.
You can contact Leigh by emailing him at Leigh@estimize.com
Follow me on Twitter: @NewConstructs
David is CEO of New Constructs (www.newconstructs.com), an independent research firm that leverages proprietary technology to find key insights from the Financial Footnotes of 10Ks and 10Qs. Having analyzed over 70,000 annual reports and their Financial Footnotes, New Constructs helps protect clients from the red flags/unknowns in SEC filings.
David is a distinguished investment strategist and corporate finance expert. He is a member of FASB's Investors Advisory Committee, and he is author of the Chapter “Modern Tools for Valuation” in The Valuation Handbook (Wiley Finance 2010).
David's insights into the markets and his stock picks have been popular with a wide variety of media outlets.
Howard Penney is managing director at Hedgeye Risk Management. His research coverage focuses on the restaurant industry and other Consumer Staples sectors in the US. He has nearly two decades of experience following consumer related sectors including tobacco, beverage (including Latin America), gaming and restaurant sectors.
Prior to Hedgeye Risk Management, Howard spent 14 years at Morgan Stanley, including working on the MACRO team covering small company strategy. During his tenure at Morgan Stanley, Howard was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor (Restaurants) and #1 in the WSJ poll (Tobacco). In addition, after Morgan Stanley Howard worked at FBR and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Howard received his bachelor’s degree in finance and economics from Florida Southern College.
Frances J. Aylor, CFA has over 28 years experience in the financial services industry as a corporate credit analyst, international trade finance officer, and equities analyst. Formerly a director at IronOak Advisors LLC, which managed $3 billion in assets, she currently is focused on managing family money. Ms. Aylor is a member and former president of CFA Society Virginia.
I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for a large bank. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently I co-manage a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy.
Mr. Himelson is the portfolio manager for JBH Capital, a small fund with investors consisting of friends and family members. He previously worked at a hedge fund as a research analyst and is currently a third year student at Columbia Law School. He is best known on Seeking Alpha for his article "The Trade That Netted Me More Than a 2000% Return." http://seekingalpha.com/article/2350375-the-trade-that-netted-me-more-than-a-2000-percent-return If you would like to inquire about hiring Mr. Himelson as a consultant, you can reach him at email@example.com
“The authority of those who teach is often an obstacle to those who want to learn.” - Marcus Tullius Cicero
The contributions here are DEFINITELY NOT an advice or recommendation to buy or sell. I would not act on all ideas shared here and do not expect anything different from the readers.
Have an academic and practical background in finance and investing (including hedge funds), please discount the same.
Mid Market M&A consultant specializing in technology and energy industries. Individual Investor for over 25 years. Growth oriented investments primarily in market leaders and technology leaders. Investment philosophy is long term buy and hold with average holding time of several years.
I have a keen sense of cutting through management and Investment banker commentary and seeing true value of companies. A lot of my views tend to be controversial for that reason but at the same time remarkably accurate.
To get a feel for my writing, readers can puruse a few of my recent against the grain calls:- with extremely high success rates.
Bookmark QTR's new blog, where exclusive (and always FREE) content will be available: http://www.quoththeravenresearch.com
Visit QTR and check out trading ideas, commentary, and me arguing with idiots on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/quoththeravensa
QTR's ARTICLES ARE BOUND BY SA'S CONTRIBUTOR POLICY IN ADDITION TO THIS ENTIRE LENGTHY, YET EXTREMELY PERTINENT ADD ON DISCLOSURE, WHICH SERVES AS BOTH A STANDALONE DISCLOSURE AND AN AMENDMENT TO ANY AND ALL DISCLOSURES ALREADY PRESIDING OVER SEEKING ALPHA:
Quoth the Raven's ("QTR") articles are the sole product of QTR and his personal, individual opinions. These articles are not associated with, in any way, the opinions, strategies, or works of QTR's employer, associates, or entities in any way otherwise related to QTR.
(i.e. This are solely my personal thoughts and opinions)
You agree that by reading Quoth the Raven's articles, you are acting at your OWN RISK. In NO EVENT should QTR be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained in QTR's articles, StockTalks, or other internet-based dissemination methods. Information in QTR's articles are not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. QTR is not suggesting the transacting of any financial instruments and QTR suggests consulting your personal financial adviser with regards to any such transactions.
QTR makes no representations, and specifically disclaims all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. Again, you should seek the advice of your personal financial adviser or a security professional regarding your stock transactions.
QTR does not, in any way, guarantee that he is providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. QTR recommends, again, that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.
QTR most always holds a position in any of the securities profiled in his pieces and he constructs his SA disclosures in accordance with SA's Contributor Policy, to the best of his knowledge in order to maintain transparency and also to uphold and respect pertinent securities laws. QTR may or may not report when a position is initiated or covered. Each investor must make that decision based on his/her judgment of the market.
I am not a stockbroker or financial adviser. I am a casual investor making casual observations for the purpose of discussion and open communication and analysis of companies and stocks. All articles are my opinion only and are not suggestions to buy or sell any equity, bond, option or other financial instrument. QTR may have long or short positions in any tickers mentioned at any time and reserves the right to open, close, or modify positions at all time without notice. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past. There are tons of unqualified people out there offering up financial advice and its your responsibility to sort through the BS. You don't hit the button to fill my orders and I don't hit yours, so no whining or praising over stocks covered by me.
Follow QTR on Twitter: https://twitter.com/QuoththeRavenSA
View QTR's Stock Picking Performance for every article at TipRanks:
Arihaan Capital is a value-oriented investment partnership modeled along the Buffett Partnerships. The investment philosophy is rooted in deep fundamental analysis which enables Arihaan Capital to run a concentrated long/short portfolio of global equities. As of the publication date of articles submitted, Arihaan Capital may have long or short equity positions in the companies covered.