Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Tampat,,
I wont disagree that the avg family is hurting, but going from terrible to bad is something to get excited about in the context of the markets,and one of the reasons the markets are where they are..
While we may all "feel" for a relative or friend that is still hurting, from a market perspective the fact is that household balance sheets are vastly improved since 2008. That sea change along with other macro factors are the components that can take market higher over time..
you stated it - from terrible to bad, if u believe , then the next step is "not too bad" then "ok" than " pretty good". It takes lot of time given this crisis we all went thru..
Things can always deteriorate form here , but i'm not a believer of that sceanrio at this point in time.. What would u have said to me in '09 if i told u S & P 1650 in '13 ... Please think about it ... It happened.. Now tell me why after some turbulence we cant improve more and go higher..
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Southgent,
I luv your approach to the VIX and use as a tool,, I have read your links on the subject over and over & i came away with the same conclusion today - VIX movement didn't confirm the S& P drastic move down.
Glad we cleared that up, - as we are both in the same camp here..
Sure I feel at this point that I stand to profit from the questionable tactics at hedgeeye and Barron's. -- Time will tell.
Even though anyone that took advantage of the selloff created by the articles has to be pleased for now , I still say that its not right.. its tantamount to acting on insider information. and we do know that practice is illegal.
And I may also add that I have had a position in LINE for over 4 years. I added to my position on this latest pullback for reasons both u & I agree on.. Best to you ...
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 10............ [View instapost]
IT,
was referring to Gold being in a bear market now, which it is..
I will lay out my theories on Gold , and will ask all to shoot them down and tell me why i am wrong, I am no expert in PM's BUT , i do give credence to charts and such, i believe Gold can fall much lower.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 10............ [View instapost]
Hebba, If I may , there is inherent risk with all types of investments that we can agree on..
You state that by owning conglomerates back in 2008 , some suffered losses in the neighborhood of 50% or more, That is very true. Than as stated "do u want to own the same conglomerates that are now at all time Highs" . Well I believed you answered your own question and proved the fact that these conglomerates can and do come back , I'm not suggesting "buy and hold then forget" BUT Unless I'm missing your point stocks present no more risk than any other investment ,and for some far less risk over time..
Please don't lose sight of the dividend factor which over time trumps all investments ---without question.. Correct me if i'm wrong but an investment in Gold pays me no such interest over any time frame.. I understand the principle of "insurance" gold and other metals represent to some.. But I have a feeling that the insurance will be getting a lot cheaper in the days/ months & possibly years ahead.. ( Yes i mean years ) Plenty of risk now with Gold in a bear market. Time will tell.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
IT,
Understand your concerns. And don't make light of how things seem or are percieved .
I cant say for sure , (nobody can) if the hysteria will continue and the right time to jump in here. All i can say is Its time to be watchful , not fearful and let's see what the markets tell us going forward,
For what ts worth , i will share my thoughts and actions as we move forward...
One thing i forgot to mention earlier, the most important thing we need to keep an eye on is the upcoming earnings reports. That wil be the true measure if we can go higher from here or take a step back.
I think u can relate to this.. I mentioned to my wife a few minutes ago that there was plenty of activity and volatility in the markets today, She replied- did we make money ? - I answered - No Her reply - then i don t need to hear about activity unless we made money ! - my reply - whats for dinner ?
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Notrub,
I believe you represent the change that has taken place in households all over the country.. That change from where we were in 2008 , is another reason that will help improve the overall economy as we move forward..
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
IT, Notrub made the Y2k comparison, but thats ok, i understand what he meant and will try to respond.. You mentioned "no plan to unravel" ' That's the common belief out there mostly from folks that don' t agree with the Fed . Using Tack's "bank " example from his statement above, I never heard anyone talking about how they were going to get out from under in that timeframe, all i heard was the fianacial system is doomed, etc. As he stated they did get out and I will add they are on the cusp of a tremendous earnings turnaround.
I hear the same thing every day, they (Fed) have no plan , there is no plan, and when QE ends the market will revisit the lows. I take the approach that there can and will be a solution , a plan ,a gradual exit, as things evolve. I'm not suggesting it will be pretty but IMHO its certainly not the "end" as people suggest. So as in the bank example this to will pass.
One thing we can all agree on because its fact , we have never been down this road before. So as I mentioned yesterday , no one knows exactly how this will end. In the meantime, play the cards that are dealt. I've been fortunate to do that since QE inception.
IMHO today nothing changed, we will stay the course on ZIRP. and fed policy will revolve around the health of the economy.
The last 90 min was sheer hysteria as Tack mentioned. If it continues , IMO it wil present an opportunity.
This surely can be like Y2 , in the sense that when it came to that magic moment at 12:00 , computers worked, sun came up next day and calamity was not the order of the day. Might that be a possibility. ?
I profess to use the "Fear and Greed" cycles that grip the market from time to time to generate wealth.
if we stick with LINE as the example. , I was adding to my position when others were fearful. (My moniker has nothing to do with my belief of what has transpired) People were fearful because it is my personal belief that BARRON's and certain hedge funds have an agenda . An agenda to present and then promote negativity that again in my opinion is baseless in fact.
IMHO those that sold here around 29 or so , give up the distribution yield will in the long run be disappointed.
I don't believe they received compensation , that wouldn't be enough to continue with this charade.. Much more was pocketed. My contention is that IF we could have a full blown investigation Barrons and personnel that have trumpeted the negativity in their articles were "short" well before their articles were released and then piled on when their "story" took hold. Do u want me to believe they keep singling out this target for the sake of journalism and to sell more newspapers? Where there is money to be made , people will go to extraordinary means to profit.
Believe what u wish , it smells like a can of sardines and it is criminal.
Period.
Live long & prosper !Best of luck with your view of the market and your investment strategy.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Tack,
I am right beside you when it comes to the "hysteria" that is advocated on what is trumpeted on the "disaster of the day". Most forget that things do have a way of working out, just that most can't even perceive how that can happen. Your example of the banks is a perfect reminder of this.
I'm not buying into the end of QE as being a disaster. Your assessment of that situation is excellent and one that I agree with. .. I respect all of the opinions and notions that are being professed on QE . These arguments appear compelling, but just as we have witnessed in all of the "black Swan" situations that have come and gone , those compelling arguments for doom were wrong and greatly exaggerated.. We are near all time highs.
Surely there will be market volatility, as we approach the end of QE , but it just may be time to sit back, take inventory and take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Tampat, Agreed, the statements will be chopped, diced , sliced , parsed, regurgitated then repeated. Nothing has changed, we are in that trading range I mentioned earlier,and until there is a break one way or another, just expect more volatility.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
I wont disagree that the avg family is hurting, but going from terrible to bad is something to get excited about in the context of the markets,and one of the reasons the markets are where they are..
While we may all "feel" for a relative or friend that is still hurting, from a market perspective the fact is that household balance sheets are vastly improved since 2008. That sea change along with other macro factors are the components that can take market higher over time..
you stated it - from terrible to bad, if u believe , then the next step is "not too bad" then "ok" than " pretty good". It takes lot of time given this crisis we all went thru..
Things can always deteriorate form here , but i'm not a believer of that sceanrio at this point in time..
What would u have said to me in '09 if i told u S & P 1650 in '13 ... Please think about it ... It happened.. Now tell me why after some turbulence we cant improve more and go higher..
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
I luv your approach to the VIX and use as a tool,, I have read your links on the subject over and over & i came away with the same conclusion today - VIX movement didn't confirm the S& P drastic move down.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
I like your style and approach,, used May 22 also,, but only looking for 10% or maybe a bit more to put some fear back into us-- LOL
If we get down to 1550 On S & P , and get a negativity spike from media that should scare the heck out of most..
Same here , watching ,listening trying best to be patient..
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 10............ [View instapost]
no, no, I was referring to Gold , please re read my statement "with Gold in a bear market "..
SPX is surely not in a bear market..
Has Linn Energy Finally Bottomed? [View article]
Glad we cleared that up, - as we are both in the same camp here..
Sure I feel at this point that I stand to profit from the questionable tactics at hedgeeye and Barron's. -- Time will tell.
Even though anyone that took advantage of the selloff created by the articles has to be pleased for now , I still say that its not right.. its tantamount to acting on insider information. and we do know that practice is illegal.
And I may also add that I have had a position in LINE for over 4 years. I added to my position on this latest pullback for reasons both u & I agree on..
Best to you ...
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 10............ [View instapost]
was referring to Gold being in a bear market now, which it is..
I will lay out my theories on Gold , and will ask all to shoot them down and tell me why i am wrong, I am no expert in PM's BUT , i do give credence to charts and such, i believe Gold can fall much lower.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 10............ [View instapost]
If I may , there is inherent risk with all types of investments that we can agree on..
You state that by owning conglomerates back in 2008 , some suffered losses in the neighborhood of 50% or more, That is very true. Than as stated "do u want to own the same conglomerates that are now at all time Highs" . Well I believed you answered your own question and proved the fact that these conglomerates can and do come back , I'm not suggesting "buy and hold then forget"
BUT Unless I'm missing your point stocks present no more risk than any other investment ,and for some far less risk over time..
Please don't lose sight of the dividend factor which over time trumps all investments ---without question.. Correct me if i'm wrong but an investment in Gold pays me no such interest over any time frame..
I understand the principle of "insurance" gold and other metals represent to some.. But I have a feeling that the insurance will be getting a lot cheaper in the days/ months & possibly years ahead.. ( Yes i mean years ) Plenty of risk now with Gold in a bear market. Time will tell.
Best of luck - Just my .02
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Understand your concerns. And don't make light of how things seem or are percieved .
I cant say for sure , (nobody can) if the hysteria will continue and the right time to jump in here. All i can say is Its time to be watchful , not fearful and let's see what the markets tell us going forward,
For what ts worth , i will share my thoughts and actions as we move forward...
One thing i forgot to mention earlier, the most important thing we need to keep an eye on is the upcoming earnings reports. That wil be the true measure if we can go higher from here or take a step back.
I think u can relate to this.. I mentioned to my wife a few minutes ago that there was plenty of activity and volatility in the markets today,
She replied- did we make money ? - I answered - No
Her reply - then i don t need to hear about activity unless we made money ! - my reply - whats for dinner ?
Those Italians can be a tough crowd. !! LOL
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
I believe you represent the change that has taken place in households all over the country.. That change from where we were in 2008 , is another reason that will help improve the overall economy as we move forward..
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Notrub made the Y2k comparison, but thats ok, i understand what he meant and will try to respond.. You mentioned "no plan to unravel" '
That's the common belief out there mostly from folks that don' t agree with the Fed . Using Tack's "bank " example from his statement above, I never heard anyone talking about how they were going to get out from under in that timeframe, all i heard was the fianacial system is doomed, etc. As he stated they did get out and I will add they are on the cusp of a tremendous earnings turnaround.
I hear the same thing every day, they (Fed) have no plan , there is no plan, and when QE ends the market will revisit the lows. I take the approach that there can and will be a solution , a plan ,a gradual exit, as things evolve. I'm not suggesting it will be pretty but IMHO its certainly not the "end" as people suggest.
So as in the bank example this to will pass.
One thing we can all agree on because its fact , we have never been down this road before. So as I mentioned yesterday , no one knows exactly how this will end. In the meantime, play the cards that are dealt. I've been fortunate to do that since QE inception.
IMHO today nothing changed, we will stay the course on ZIRP. and fed policy will revolve around the health of the economy.
The last 90 min was sheer hysteria as Tack mentioned. If it continues , IMO it wil present an opportunity.
This surely can be like Y2 , in the sense that when it came to that magic moment at 12:00 , computers worked, sun came up next day and calamity was not the order of the day. Might that be a possibility. ?
Has Linn Energy Finally Bottomed? [View article]
I profess to use the "Fear and Greed" cycles that grip the market from time to time to generate wealth.
if we stick with LINE as the example. , I was adding to my position when others were fearful. (My moniker has nothing to do with my belief of what has transpired)
People were fearful because it is my personal belief that BARRON's and certain hedge funds have an agenda . An agenda to present and then promote negativity that again in my opinion is baseless in fact.
IMHO those that sold here around 29 or so , give up the distribution yield will in the long run be disappointed.
I don't believe they received compensation , that wouldn't be enough to continue with this charade.. Much more was pocketed.
My contention is that IF we could have a full blown investigation Barrons and personnel that have trumpeted the negativity in their articles were "short" well before their articles were released and then piled on when their "story" took hold. Do u want me to believe they keep singling out this target for the sake of journalism and to sell more newspapers? Where there is money to be made , people will go to extraordinary means to profit.
Believe what u wish , it smells like a can of sardines and it is criminal.
Period.
Live long & prosper !Best of luck with your view of the market and your investment strategy.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
I am right beside you when it comes to the "hysteria" that is advocated on what is trumpeted on the "disaster of the day". Most forget that things do have a way of working out, just that most can't even perceive how that can happen. Your example of the banks is a perfect reminder of this.
I'm not buying into the end of QE as being a disaster. Your assessment of that situation is excellent and one that I agree with. ..
I respect all of the opinions and notions that are being professed on QE . These arguments appear compelling, but just as we have witnessed in all of the "black Swan" situations that have come and gone , those compelling arguments for doom were wrong and greatly exaggerated.. We are near all time highs.
Surely there will be market volatility, as we approach the end of QE , but it just may be time to sit back, take inventory and take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Agreed, the statements will be chopped, diced , sliced , parsed, regurgitated then repeated. Nothing has changed, we are in that trading range I mentioned earlier,and until there is a break one way or another, just expect more volatility.
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ [View instapost]
Thanks,, did u have to bring up '87 - ouch -- LOL
Your portfolio management seems to have served you well. Well stated advice..
Microsoft Baiting A Trap For Bulls? [View article]
I'm looking for another increase this Aug .. There's plenty of room here for a sizeable increase..