omooc

Emerging Markets: Millions Returning to the Natural Economy

What's wrong with returing to your rural roots? In China, a few years in the city allowed one to save some money, thereby allowing one to build a house in the rural area, and to return there from time to time. In the Chinese-language paper I read, I saw a photo, a couple of days ago, on the front page, showing the backside of a bicyclist, returning home, with a big washing machine (by Haier) at the back. The general attitude seems to be positive -- a few years in the city is nice, but returning to the rural home with your spouse and family is nicer. With simple tastes and no debt, plowing the field is gainful employment.

Will Gold Hit $1,000?

GLD seems to be churning at 93.

Gold Is Losing Its Luster

I don't suppose GLD moved only up during the 4-year period. If this is not so, proper timing could improve your results many times, I presume.

China: Beginning of the End or End of the Beginning?

I cannot figure out exactly what the author wants to convey. The world wants China to develop domestic consumption. When so, exports have to drop, particularly when other countries have no resources to place orders. I read, from a Chinese-language newspaper a few days back, that China has just opened 25,000 stores in rural areas, intended to serve rural needs -- in the process, putting 750,000 or so people to work. In the paper received today (there is usually a 2-day lag), a story mentioned that 1,000 or so retraining centers have been set up to provide training to people who have returned to their rural homeland. So, I tend to think that China is developing constructive ways to take care of the labor force.

Is China a Better Investment Destination Than U.S.?

I read the same statistics in WSJ several days ago. Reading this article does not provide me with answers raised by the author serving as the title of this post. Another WSJ article a couple of days ago cited an interesting statistics: 48 of people polled felt that USA would be the the first country to come out of recession or whatever term one wishes to use. We'll wait and see.

More Terrible Trade Numbers from China

I share Ma-lin's sentiment fully. I also share senaca's. As I read the author's profile, I failed to see his educational background. Wall Street experience does not qualify one, at least in my view, to be a faculty member at a leading Chinese university. In fact, his anti-China attitude is reason enough to ask for his resignation. traxcavator talks about "cooking the books," which is a favorite argument among westerners not knowing how to make sense of data out of China. This evening (2/13/09), in Fast Money, a CNBC program, one panelist raised a similar question. She did not know how to make use of a favorable market trend in copper (another panelist suggested that China was the likely buyer of copper and other building materials). Euro-centric commentators are at their wits' end -- they do not want to see China to recover ahead of USA, but underlying data do not come to their defense.

Alternatives to Buy and Hold

A friend of mine whose day job is wealth-management showed me his personal portfolio, holding 10 ETFs and showing good results month in and month out. I did not have occasion to study these 10 ETFs in detail, however.

Is SDS a Way Around Market Volatility?

Barron's has covered the problem of reverse 2x ETFs on several occasions. While I understand the end result (not SDS; Barron's used other ETFs), I am at a loss to understand the internal logic why reverse 2x does not work over an extended period of time (say, a month). For intra-day validity, does that mean one should close out at the end of each day? Then what?

The Moody's USA Downgrade

I read, a while ago, that there is a credit-insurance market against the USD.

Why the U.S. Needs a Cultural Reset

Inflation will make everyone in USA happy. "Underwater" mortgages will emerge, so that problem is solved as well. This is the secret weapon.

A Lesson from TIPS

If TIP is not an inflation-protection vehicle, if Gold is not a good hedge, what is? That is the question I am trying to find a good answer.

Dollar Rises, Gold Stays Up

I thought FCX would be a play for gold rather than for copper. Unclear why SLV is so strong relative to GLD.

Beware Short and Ultrashort ETFs

For a while, I was puzzled by the low correlation between oil price and DUG. Then, a wealth-adviser friend of mine pointed out the portfolio in DUG. Now I understand. Query: how does one find out the major holding of any ETF?
At the present, I am puzzled by the action in SRS. One day a month or so ago, it dropped by over 70 points. Any reason for that?

Barron's Takes Down Cramer, Again

I read the Barron's article -- I thought it was well written, with adequate disclosure. Yes, Cramer is a genius (so stated in the article); yes, one can make money by doing the reverse (as one commentator above said; it is also so stated in the article); yes, the recommendations might have been leaked (as another commentator above said; it is also so mentioned in the article). For a while, I listened to him. But, after a while, I thought he was just trying to fill in the time; it is not worthy of my time to tune in to listen to him. He used to have 3 time slots on CNBC, at 6, 9, and probably 11 or 12. Now, as I see the promotional material on CNBC, he is on only at 6. Any reasons?

Trading Strategy: Gold vs. Gold Stocks

Thanks for the good work you are doing. Because of volatility, comparing GLD and XAU on a DAILY basis -- particularly with a one-day lag -- is more coincidental than convincing. I would be interested in knowing how GLD moves, relative to the gold spot market, at 5-minute intervals. For example, gold spot this morning (2/5), as I saw on the CNBC screen, was +20 dollars from yesterday's close. I do not know how it fared the rest of the day. For GLD, it opened today at 90.75 (up from yesterday's close at 89.18), but closed at 90.12. omooc