omooc

The Differences Between Chinese and U.S. Economic Recoveries

As I read from Chinese-language newspapers, China's stimulus package is 6~7% of her GDP, where as USA's is about 2~3%. While China's package has already been put into practice (rural people have received cash coupons, building a petrochemical plant has started, and a transport system moving water from the interior to Beijing is ready to go, etc.), the USA's has barely escaped the filibuster; while the watered-down bill will be signed next Tuesday, only about 25% of the package will be used in this fiscal year. I also read that China is developing a 2nd package, worth about 4% of GDP. Yesterday, I read that the Universal Studio is planning a rec center in Beijing to rival Disney's in Shanghai and HK -- at a cost of 100 million rmb. I presume the pace in USA will pick up soon.

Why Gold Prices Didn't Really Rise Last Week

Good analysis. The prediction, done before today's (3/24/09) market opening, certainly bears fruit, as GLD closed at 90.95, down 1.13 today. This begs the question: what is likely to happen tomorrow?

Barron's Takes Down Cramer, Again

I read the Barron's article -- I thought it was well written, with adequate disclosure. Yes, Cramer is a genius (so stated in the article); yes, one can make money by doing the reverse (as one commentator above said; it is also so stated in the article); yes, the recommendations might have been leaked (as another commentator above said; it is also so mentioned in the article). For a while, I listened to him. But, after a while, I thought he was just trying to fill in the time; it is not worthy of my time to tune in to listen to him. He used to have 3 time slots on CNBC, at 6, 9, and probably 11 or 12. Now, as I see the promotional material on CNBC, he is on only at 6. Any reasons?

Sherwin Williams Is In For a Shellacking - Barron's

I read the Barron's article Saturday, and read this one after the market closed Monday, 4/13. Still, this article is well done, reads well, and more vibrant. The stock opened at 51.57, down 1,98 from Thursday's close. After dropping to 51.03 around 10 am, the stock struggled to move up, closing at 52.48. The info supplied by my on-line broker is that the consensus 1Q earnings for SHW is 0.30; last year's was 0,14. It would be interesting to see how the market reacts when earnings are announced Thursday.

G-20 Agreement Bad for the Global Economy

Based upon the summary in today's (4/3/09) Financial Times, G-20 has agreed on (1) IMF issue, (2) watered-down int'l regulatory issue (a France-China compromise), and (3) so-so commentary on protectionism. The first issue in this post -- stimulus -- which is dear to Obama, is not addressed. Another point in this post, that businesses in individual states have surrendered their authority to an int'l group, yet to be yet up, is patently misleading as to be unworthy of being posted. LSB has been rated as #1 business school by FT this year (upgraded from #2 to tie with U of Pennsylvania's Wharton School as co-#1, which held #1 position by itself in the last several years; I am a graduate of Wharton Graduate); judging from this post, this rating is unwarranted.

China Wants to Ditch the Dollar

1) There is a full-page ad in today's (3/24/09) Financial Times, by LEAP/E2020 (I infer this to be a think tank in Europe), in which it makes 3 recommendations, the first one being "creating a new international reserve currency." LEAP seemed to have predicted a "crisis of historical proportions" a year ago in one of its publications.
2) China's suggestion, similar to the above, is heard over radio/TV only this morning -- suggesting that her suggestion is independent of LEAP's.
3) In tonight's press conference, president Obama was asked about China's suggestion. Not surprisingly, he answered that there is no need to abandon the dollar as the reserve currency.
4) In tonight's Nightly Business (a PBS show), there was a segment showing China is encouraging trading partners in SE Asia to settle accounts using RMB (yuan); very interesting coverage.
5) One commentator above, Celcius, said something along the lines of using gold/silver as the reserve currency. If and when the IMF attempts to link the new reserve currency (LEAP uses the term "global") to gold/silver, this would be, indeed, the end result. No more printing press as morph366 talks about. omooc

'Long S&P 500 Overnight' Is Not an Advisable Strategy in Bear Markets

Excellent presentation -- valuable until you introduced proprietary devices, which are not evaluable by outsiders.

Play Falling Commercial Real Estate with SRS

Well done; I learned a great deal. May I suggest someone (the author of this post as well as several commentators) give a tutorial on evaluating reverse 2x ETFs such as SRS for people other than day-traders (since, by reading the various entries, positions in SRS and other similar reverse 2x ETFs are to be closed on a daily basis). Aalan also provides a valuable piece of info (re IYR); thanks -- ditto to AndrewBaker.

A Lesson from TIPS

If TIP is not an inflation-protection vehicle, if Gold is not a good hedge, what is? That is the question I am trying to find a good answer.

S&P Sectors Impact: A Look at 9 ETFs

Good charts. Is $SPX=SPY? Needs explanation. Needs charts for shorter time period.

Is China Going Green or Not?

On a per capita basis, China's carbon emission is only 1/4 of USA's. So, who has to control this first?

Speculating on Chinese Solar: Throw a Dart and Smile

Barron's (3/30/09, on sale 3/28/09) has an article on solar, by Bill Alpert. As usual, his outlook is negative, which may account for the sector's sell-off today (3/30/09)

It's Raining Bulls Today

We need a tutorial on SRS. Alternatively, where may one read a writeup on the compositon of SRS and its change on a day-to-day basis? If one trades SRS as a day-trader, which is implicit in the author's post, what would be a good time during the day to enter and a good time to exit?

What Latest Fed Move Means for ETFs

The caption to this post [... ETFs] is misleading. Only one -- and irrelevant at that -- ETF is mentioned. As xsellside properly asked: what about TBT, PST, etc.
aarc's comment that " But only the few and the privileged class [in China] were able to do so [act as over-indulgent Americans] because of the high capitalization cost needed for export oriented businesses" is beyond my comprehension. My suggestion: try to read the op-ed piece, by the dean of U of Singapore's businss school, in today (3/19/09)'s Financial Times.

Chinese Lawmakers' New Renewable Energy Policy Will Benefit Solar Companies

Road Runner: Don't understand what you meant by "difficult to implement", "lead to corruption," "destruction of middle-class," and "poor economic growth." (next to last paragraph). The last one is particularly puzzling.