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hayekvonfriedman

hayekvonfriedman
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  • Why Travelers Will Outperform: Value, Momentum, And Industry Tailwinds [View article]
    That's the nature of the business. If it is to be run as a business then TRV must identify its exposures and properly cost them. The ability to do that is what differentiates in what is in essence a commoditized business.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Travelers Will Outperform: Value, Momentum, And Industry Tailwinds [View article]
    With all respect to a fine contribution by mgpaisan, as a owner of TRV who bought before the run-up the increase in price is reflective of its value and not a result of share buybacks. Forget share buybacks, value the stock as if the share float remains undiminished and by most value measure it is a still a solid buy for dividend and growth investors.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Magna International In This Current Price Dip [View article]
    MGA is currently the best of breed. Don't place undue importance on the uncontrollable macro environment. It is a good time to buy because it is a solid company with effective valuation metrics and solid growth prospects. Good luck. Full disclosure, I am also long MGA.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    One intended consequence of QE was to push savers out on the risk curve
    Mar 12, 2015. 06:16 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    Agree with all points and the conclusion. What are your thoughts on the argument that the interest payments on the national debt would be virtually unserviceable should rates be normalized?
    Mar 12, 2015. 06:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do Masochistic Greeks Want To Be In The Euro? [View article]
    Everything in the article is true. The Greeks haven't been great since Alexander and have not been truth seekers since Aristotle. The Greeks live on past glories and others money and frugality.
    Feb 22, 2015. 02:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy: Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop Refiners [View article]
    I agree with your point. I just want a caveat and to stimulate thinking a counter factual what if the economy is actually slowing.
    Jan 1, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Must Be A Bubble Somewhere [View article]
    Much too simplistic Austrianism and its salutary contributions. Also too much ignoring of the role of the federal government as exemplified by Dodd and Frank, yes those two, in back door mandating that lending institutions make these loans under the rubric to not do so is prima facie discrimination, creditworthiness be damned.
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do 2014 Winners Say About 2015? [View article]
    Reasonable
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy: Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop Refiners [View article]
    The oil price collapse has created a boon for consumers, but it could get hard for some refiners if it continues. The oil supply glut has turned into a refined product glut for gasoline at least, as refineries produced a record amount of gasoline during part of December, and the U.S. imported an unusually high amount of gasoline for this time of year
    See CNBC http://cnb.cx/1vFyXax
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Chandler Positions For 2015: It's Not The Things We Know That Get Us Into Trouble [View article]
    The herd sometimes finds water and green pasture, but may also find lions waiting at the watering hole and hunters at the green pastures. Stay with the momentum but have a very itchy trigger finger.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Chandler Positions For 2015: It's Not The Things We Know That Get Us Into Trouble [View article]
    Counterfactual headline hypothesis:
    "Congress unable to pass comprehensive corporate tax reform, regulations increase, the intelligentsia continue the tactic of populist 1% rhetoric. Economy weakens, US stocks correct, USD weakens as QEI becomes reality.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Chandler Positions For 2015: It's Not The Things We Know That Get Us Into Trouble [View article]
    It was Ken Fisher who said "what everyone knows is not worth knowing." Of course, knowing the unknowable is an impossible task but one can and should always manage risk. The manner and methods by which one does so is not as important as identifying the risk and intellectually and emotionally accepting it as a cost of investing, for which a rational investor expects to be compensated for in the form of the risk premia.
    Dec 29, 2014. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs: A .79% Advantage For 5 Lowest Price High Yield December 26 Issues [View article]
    Too much energy concentrated in this portfolio, and not just because of the current environment which may or may not be a good entry point. One must manage for risk and return and yield will follow.
    Dec 29, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Asset Manager BlackRock Gave Me The Willies About 2015 [View article]
    Thanks Beach for the clarification. It makes more sense to me now.
    Dec 29, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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