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hayekvonfriedman

hayekvonfriedman
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  • SPORTS, SPORTS, AND MORE SPORTS......CHAPTER 1... [View instapost]
    Agreed. I have two bionic knees as a reminder of my love-hate football days and a stint jumping out of airplanes in the USAF.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPORTS, SPORTS, AND MORE SPORTS......CHAPTER 1... [View instapost]
    Yep, The Wash. Caps and Nashville Predators. And the no longer in existence Birmingham, AL minor league franchise.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPORTS, SPORTS, AND MORE SPORTS......CHAPTER 1... [View instapost]
    For me, sports are a diversion. Making sound disciplined decisions off the field that defer present consumption toward a compounded future, now that is the average Joe and Jann's real super bowl.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPORTS, SPORTS, AND MORE SPORTS......CHAPTER 1... [View instapost]
    Don't apologize for being tough on them if that means accepting no excuses for not giving it all and quitting.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPORTS, SPORTS, AND MORE SPORTS......CHAPTER 1... [View instapost]
    Wealthcare:increase yield with OTM covered calls, and selling puts. Use protective puts in an appropriate hedge ratio to control downside risk.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Consistent Risk/Reward Speculation That I Have Ever Found [View article]
    Keep speculating, but only after you ask yourself this question: do you want to make money or have fun playing with your money?
    Dec 20, 2014. 05:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $60: Not A Reasonable Price For Oil [View article]
    The "cutting" has already started. As always, low prices will cure low prices. World-wide demand is not declining, merely slowing in growth. 1,000,000 bbls/day in a 90,000,000 bbls/day inelastic in short-run market function is marginal and is reasonably close to supply/demand balance.
    I put my money to work in COP two days ago. Already paying off.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:56 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Time Really Different? [View article]
    I will stay tuned as right now the lower oil prices do seem to be the reason du jour for a possible crossing of the Rubicon. Thanks for your reply.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    See http://bit.ly/1zQqlTg
    Also See a supply constrained world in academic refereed publication "The Changing Face of World Oil Markets:

    James D. Hamilton
    NBER Working Paper No. 20355
    Issued in July 2014
    NBER Program(s): EEE
    "This year the oil industry celebrated its 155th birthday, continuing a rich history of booms, busts and dramatic technological changes. Many old hands in the oil patch may view recent developments as a continuation of the same old story, wondering if the high prices of the last decade will prove to be another transient cycle with which technological advances will again eventually catch up. But there have been some dramatic changes over the last decade that could mark a major turning point in the history of the world's use of this key energy source. In this article I review five of the ways in which the world of energy may have changed forever."
    http://bit.ly/1zQqoyo

    AND Abstract http://bit.ly/1zQtfYq

    "We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable. We first discuss the factors that have enabled the United States to expand production so rapidly and the glut of oil inventory that has accumulated in the Midwest as a result of logistical challenges and export restrictions. Next, we assess the extent to which the increase in U.S. domestic production will affect global supply conditions and whether the U.S. experience can be repeated in other countries with unconventional oil sources. The evidence suggests that even in the best-case scenario, the increase in U.S. oil production is unlikely to have a large effect on the global oil market’s demand–supply balance, so its effect on the price of oil is expected to be limited. Furthermore, the United States enjoys unique infrastructural and technological advantages that make it unlikely that rapid increases in unconventional production can be achieved elsewhere."
    Dec 14, 2014. 07:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    The author is wrong on most counts. The terror of low oil may play well in C-suites but not in Peoria. They are, along with the relatively strong dollar, undoubtedly good for the average American consumer which is 70% of GDP.
    Pokalolo: I am one of your likes and agree with your analysis but am optimistic about a different outcome. Not because of the GOP, which already seems to have forgot who just put it into power, but because I do not discount America's entrepreneurs despite the headwinds of bureaucrats and enviro-Nazis.
    1,000,000 bbl/day over supply in a 90,000,000 bbl/day market is one shock away from a ten to twenty dollar move up anyway.
    Dec 14, 2014. 06:50 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Time Really Different? [View article]
    "Ironically, lower oil and import prices will reinforce deflationary headwinds, which isn't exactly what the Fed wants."
    "...geopolitical tensions sending oil prices higher will reinforce deflationary, not inflationary headwinds. If oil prices start rising fast, they will impede global growth."
    Reconcile these two assertions?
    You are over complicating the long-term impact of lower oil prices. They are undoubtedly a positive for the U.S. for multiple reasons. In addition, oil prices are not that low on a historical basis. The economy will adjust.
    Dec 14, 2014. 06:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tell Me How You Really Feel: A Look At The Market Through Analyst Consensus Recommendations [View article]
    Sunny
    I agree, which may mean we are both thinking like analysts ironically. They can't have it both ways: bemoaning high oil prices then low prices. Either low oil price is a net plus for the overall macro-economy or it isn't. I am of the opinion it is the former.
    Perhaps the negative is that current price is a function of low or slowing global demand and perhaps some marginal players in the Bakken et al will be shaken out; but to read and hear them opine that low oil prices are now a perpetual fait-accompli when they were crowing about the energy revolution in America just a few weeks is troubling and telling.
    Dec 13, 2014. 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tell Me How You Really Feel: A Look At The Market Through Analyst Consensus Recommendations [View article]
    My anecdotal experience is that analyst are a good contrarian indicator. Just look at the energy sector opinion as opposed to the consumer goods sector opinion. With oil plunging they are all just now scrambling to re-analyze their opinions. A little late. With the oil decline, my money tilts the other way toward the consumer goods and services sector over the short-term.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC to investigate alternative mutual funds [View news story]
    For me alternatives are risk diversifiers rather than return enhancers. The truth is their relative performance has not fared well of late. To reiterate I do not buy them to outperform a particular index.

    I look for non-correlated funds that have the potential to provide absolute returns particular in volatile periods and tail events such as 2008. Low information investors getting in the deep end of the pool drive this nanny state big brother behavior.
    Aug 13, 2014. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Outlive Your Money: A Lesson From Canada [View article]
    Congratulations Tenderchkn.

    As you are much younger than I, you are blessed and doing the right thing by funding ROTHs.
    That wasn't an option for much of my accumulation phase although I too have taken full advantage of them as soon as they became available. It's a no brainer.

    I do hope that you will never have to look at RMD charts of paying taxes on your current and past ROTH contributions and earnings and that the government can keep its hands off of this signature savings/investment incentive.
    Jul 2, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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