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hayekvonfriedman

hayekvonfriedman
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  • The Federal Reserve Cannot Produce More Growth [View article]
    Increased productivity = increased GDP = increased standard of living = increased marginal utility, propensity to consume, and rewards savers.
    Productivity is a function of increase in labor participation rate with full-time real jobs and increases in capital both human, equipment, technology, machines and equipment.
    In the equation MV = PI increasing the monetary base is not synonymous with the first order increase of M (money in circulation). Therefore, it does not automatically increase P (prices of goods) nor I (GDP) if the money is not circulated in the economy. It takes V (the velocity of money or multiplier effect) to increase as well.
    This will only come about with tax simplification and reduction for both individuals and corporations of marginal rates and overall tax liability and tax simplification and certainty. And, a more enlightened regulatory framework. If not we are all just spitting in the wind.
    Watch which candidate(s) understands and articulates this maxim.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Vs. Turkey: It's The Exchange Rate Regime, Stupid! [View article]
    The siren song of being "part" of the EU is and will cause more than one nation to be scuttled on the shoals of pegged currencies.
    Coupled with social welfare systems that are a deepening burden on a demographically challenged continent, and regulations that virtually guarantee no growth than debt life support will be du jour ad infinitum. The US could learn much from the teaching moment of Greece, but alas...
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1. Referendum. 2. ???? 3. Prosperity! [View article]
    Greece will never be prosperous. It lives on the crack meth of debt and thus will always be servile to its creditors. Congratulations, however, are in order to Tsipras for outplaying the EU and particularly the IMF.
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Fun Monday [View article]
    Fun like a root canal only with volatility...will the dentist get it right.
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Approach The Alternative Investments Puzzle [View article]
    I am aligned with proposal number one about inflation protection benefits of alternative investments. It is the promised hedged portfolio function of alternatives that I find problematic. The long-short funds, short-only funds, arbitrage funds and others just don't perform as promised or assumedly designed to in either placid times as a diversifier or in crises when they are to serve as a hedge or volatility dampener.
    I know the predictable answer is going to be alternatives are designed to zig when others zag but my experience has been that the alternatives available to most of us in the form of mutual funds or ETFs don't even perform that function very well.
    I think the concept is sound I just want to see a tighter alignment between what the fund promises and what it deliver. High fees are a problem which fund managers are going to have to address as well.
    In these highly uncertain times I so much want to beleive, help thou my unbelief.
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Making A Bad Bet Right Now With Zero Rates? [View article]
    Without inflation servicing the national debt is extremely problematic...oh what a tangled web we weave when central planning we use to deceive. Good thread.
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Making A Bad Bet Right Now With Zero Rates? [View article]
    ZIRP is killing savers and "forcing" savers into speculations. Ironically higher nominal rates will lead to higher real rates after adjusting for inflation.
    Jul 5, 2015. 05:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Productivity In America [View article]
    Harm: "Zero is not bad?" Zero GDP growth means zero increase in standard of living. Maybe that's O.K. for Greece, but not for me and since GDP can be viewed as national income it means 'we are losing money' in real dollars.
    Jul 5, 2015. 05:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The IMF Provide Support To Syriza? [View article]
    We, the USA can barely, and arguably is not sustaining a 1.5% GDP growth rate. Why is the same figure too pessimistic for Greece and the support, other than hope, that says that Greece must converge to that level?
    Good thoughts.
    Jul 4, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Productivity In America [View article]
    It is more than fascinating. Without fiscal fortitude and political will from the top down to create an environment for growth the new normal will inexorably become the old normal as the 2nd derivative becomes increasingly negative.
    Some think we should establish nominal monetary and GDP growth rates that will increase nominal interest rates but ironically increase real returns. But if the velocity of money does not increase, and policies do impact the velocity, than the increased monetary base and all attempts to tinker will be of naught I am afraid.
    Jul 4, 2015. 01:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: What Do Investors Need To Know About Risk? [View article]
    Most people define risk as volatility. Real risk is uncertainty that cannot be probabilistically parametric modelling. Ergo this is a very high risk, or uncertain outcome. I "think" that retrospective analysis will show that the fears were overdone, however regardless of the EU/ECB/IMF response and outcome, precedent and resultant template will have been established and that is the real moral hazard for the EU.
    Is there just too much complacency possibly related to Grexit speculation fatigue?
    How are you hedging if at all, long puts or other "legged" option strategies, stop loss orders, et al?
    Jul 4, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: What's Next? [View article]
    "Markets off lows on reports of Greek deal" CNBC 48 minutes ago. Do you believe it?
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB, Monetarism And A Greek Half Decade [View article]
    The first Greek comedies were mainly satirical and mocked men in power for their vanity and foolishness. Not much changes in Greece but the international community downplays it so that the world's financial clothes are not stripped off.
    I would think Greek regime change is a possible co-goal. That goal is perhaps a target of opportunity.
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Options And Default Contagion Mapping [View article]
    The tables and charts, particularly the first one tell it all. Greece has a 200+ year history of fiscal malfeasance and subterfuge and all paths lead inexorably to the next crisis terminal node. The ancient Greeks first comedies were mainly satirical and mocked men in power for their vanity and foolishness. It appears that not much changes in Greece.
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Greece Is A Big Fat Slow White Swan [View article]
    Good cryptic argument. If this is a black swan it has been swimming across a much too placid lake for some time and plenty visible to any bird watchers.
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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