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hayekvonfriedman

hayekvonfriedman
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  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    Great advice for Millennials and something I have done for over 25 years now. But as a Boomer I cannot afford another halving of my portfolio and expect to make it up with time, so the simplicity of just give it enough time must be supplemented with a bit more sophisticated techniques. After all, there are two sides to Occam's Razor.
    May 23, 2015. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Morning, Vietnam [View instapost]
    As a Vietnam Vet the last and best investment I ever made in Vietnam was my ride on a CH-53 out of Saigon. POW-MIA
    May 9, 2015. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Win In The U.K. [View article]
    Are any liberals in the U.S. noting the recipe for growth? Less taxes and less
    regulation.
    May 9, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dick Bove's Warning On Banks [View article]
    The worst deed, and arguably not even with good intentions but with populist malice is Dodd-Frank.
    May 9, 2015. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shocking Truth About Share Buybacks [View article]
    Announced repurchases and actual repurchases are not the same animal. Show me the money, pay me my dividends.
    May 9, 2015. 04:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Friendly Union Pacific Trades At A Discount [View article]
    Stock repurchases don't "create" value they juice the earnings per share and enable C-suiters to realize their stock options. Dividends are preferred if the cash cannot be re-invested with an expected return above it's hurdle rate. That being said there are other reasons to own UNP as you mentioned and I have owned for about three years and done very well. Intermodal is helping, coal is hurting, and for now petroleum car loads are stagnant to down. But the long run prospects viz-a-viz other modes of transport for bulks, commodities, and intermodal is constructive.
    Good article...conformational bias :)
    May 9, 2015. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    YOU must have not lived through a real recovery. I don't respect Barry Bonds or Mark McGuire because they did "it" on QE, I mean steroids, too. But at least they set records.
    May 9, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    I doth perceive that you have not studied in depth nor lived through a real economic recovery. McJobs do not a recovery make.
    I don't respect Barry Bonds or Mark McGuire who ran on QE, I mean steroids, either.
    May 9, 2015. 08:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For The Next Market Collapse [View article]
    I agree with your "how short is the hemline of a Super Bowl cheerleader from a former AFL team as opposed to a former NFL team," to mix metaphors argument.
    But there is logical explanation for the election year phenomenon, albeit you are correct again about small sample bias, and that is neither party wishes to take the punch bowl away and risk its precious in perpetuity power broker status.
    May 9, 2015. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For The Next Market Collapse [View article]
    Most people talk diversification, even those who do not understand that asset allocation is not a four-letter word and is the largest contributor to long-tem investing success. But vey few practice it. Buying a little physical metal now when it is priced low is a wise action.
    May 9, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For The Next Market Collapse [View article]
    Occam's Razor my friend. He's just saying "what if..." WE all talk about game theory, Monte Carlo simulations, thinking out of the box, risk management, Black Swans, maximum drawdowns, buy portfolio insurance when the hedge is cheap, but nobody does it because it takes investor discipline and savvy.
    Like the people who say they are confident they will be able to retire comfortably but have saved a few thousand dollars, most can't envision a real crisis scenario.

    We are one ISIA (Islamic State in America) away from panic , or who knows what else. If you have been investing for more than a few years you should remember, 1987, 1991, 2001, 2008. I will not be dragged down again by similar or worse events. It's your choice, but forewarned is forearmed.
    May 9, 2015. 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Travelers Will Outperform: Value, Momentum, And Industry Tailwinds [View article]
    That's the nature of the business. If it is to be run as a business then TRV must identify its exposures and properly cost them. The ability to do that is what differentiates in what is in essence a commoditized business.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Travelers Will Outperform: Value, Momentum, And Industry Tailwinds [View article]
    With all respect to a fine contribution by mgpaisan, as a owner of TRV who bought before the run-up the increase in price is reflective of its value and not a result of share buybacks. Forget share buybacks, value the stock as if the share float remains undiminished and by most value measure it is a still a solid buy for dividend and growth investors.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Magna International In This Current Price Dip [View article]
    MGA is currently the best of breed. Don't place undue importance on the uncontrollable macro environment. It is a good time to buy because it is a solid company with effective valuation metrics and solid growth prospects. Good luck. Full disclosure, I am also long MGA.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    One intended consequence of QE was to push savers out on the risk curve
    Mar 12, 2015. 06:16 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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