hayekvonfriedman

hayekvonfriedman
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  • Will The Real 60/40 Please Stand Up?  [View article]
    Thank you very much for your thoughtful response. Profitable investing to you.
    Sep 10, 2012. 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Real 60/40 Please Stand Up?  [View article]
    I would like the author's and commenters thoughts on whether timing plays any part in the allocation process within say a band. Of course I realize that a fixed allocation portfolio has that name for a reason, but with re-balancing is there a better time, and at what portfolio percentages would you suggest rebalancing, taking into account transaction costs? Is there any merit to attempting to identify secular or cyclical trends or is that again an oxymoron in a fixed allocation portfolio? What, if any, is your contingency plan, and again it is a "fixed" allocation", when the extremely low current interest rate environment reverses/normalizes effect? http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9
    Longer time periods may be useful to reduce recency-of-experience bias, and data mining.
    Sep 9, 2012. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Covered Calls Have Performed In The Last 23 Years  [View article]
    Thanks for the actionable data.
    Sep 6, 2012. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke At Jackson Hole  [View article]
    As stipulated by the Banking Act of 1935, the President appoints the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; they must then be confirmed by the Senate and serve for 14 years.
    Once appointed, Governors may not be removed from office for their policy opinions. The chairman and vice-chairman are chosen by the President from among the sitting Governors for four-year terms; these appointments are also subject to Senate confirmation.

    Ben Bernanke was sworn into office on February 1, 2006, for a term lasting until January 31, 2010. He was nominated for a second term by Obama in 2009, and was confirmed by the US Senate in 2010. Bernanke's second term ends on January 31, 2014.

    So technically you are correct that Romney cannot "fire" Bernanke, at least not initially. But two years inot Romney's term Bernanke and his failed Keynesism will be gone.
    To disambiguate Romney's statements on the Fed and its Chair is to miss the essence.
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke At Jackson Hole  [View article]
    The truth is that you are comparing apples to oranges I am a Vietnam vet and a former Fairfax County, VA firefighter. I never expected to make what a business owner makes in those jobs.. Each takes different risks. In fact I pursued other interests for compensation purposes not only in money but in satisfaction of building something myself. My Son is a Captain and Dr. in the USAF. He made that decision rather than go into private practice, at least for now, knowing that he will make less money. Tax policy was removed from mere raising of revenue decades ago and became a carrot to encourage "desirable" behavior and discourage "undesirable" as defined by the government.
    Sep 4, 2012. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke At Jackson Hole  [View article]
    Very naive and dangerous to hold the Fed as so benign and above the fray of political gamesmanship. Its very genesis at Jekyll Island serves as a warning to such opinions. That the Fed has to even be taken into more than casual consideration and dominates today's news along with its European counter parts when making investment decisions is by its very nature an indication of a metastatic malignancy.
    Sep 3, 2012. 12:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke At Jackson Hole  [View article]
    I'm not sure if your comment is addressed to me but under the assumption that it is, no decision is made in isolation or on one factor alone, but rather in toto and I never mentioned taxes in my post.. But I actually have several multi-millionaire friends and in-laws that have done just that. They worked hard, made their money and their contribution to society. They have made the decision to not expand their businesses or risk capital at h is time, and perhaps never again. I too am in that class.The world is and will be a poorer place as a result.The the collectivist mentality that is pitting one against another and the omnipresent nanny state are the primary reasons. It is past timedodisallow the least capable among us to csall the shots.
    Sep 3, 2012. 12:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's official PMI 49.2 in August vs. 50.1 in July and consensus of 50. It's the first time since November that the gauge has fallen below 50 and indicated contraction. "It shows the economy is moving downward," says the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, which produces the figures, "but is bottoming out considering changes in the major subindexes."  [View news story]
    Most industrial commodities such as the metals have been reacting to this story for at least a year, but in my opinion however not full priced in the reality. The caveat is what is reality where China is concerned that can only be de-coded if one figures its end game out.
    Sep 2, 2012. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke At Jackson Hole  [View article]
    Firstly great summation.
    If Bernanke is truly of the belief that additional monetary stimulus will not be effective partciularly where persistently high and unacceptable unemploymehbt is concerned then he is rationally appraising its past and proable future benefit. America will get back to work only when there is clear incentive to do so and the putative threat of penalizing success are no longer adivisive poorly thought through campaign strategy.
    Sep 2, 2012. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beauty Of Natural Gas Transportation  [View article]
    i agree with you but it won;t happen with an Obama Administration PS. I am a naturalist in the John Muir mold, meaning I am a steward of resources, but never an environmentalist that places resources off limits.
    Aug 30, 2012. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of 'Rear-View Mirror' Investment Advice: The Case Of Virtus Investment Partners  [View article]
    Interesting food for thought and informing.
    Aug 25, 2012. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Merkel Save Germany?  [View article]
    One problem with your analogy. California is a "weaker" State. It is dependent on other states for the most basic essentials of a modern economy such as water and electricity! California is a fiscal nightmare and its due to Sacramento, and Washington, D.C. and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Its cities are bankrupt businesses are leaving the state while they still can. Realists always understood that the EU is a fiction, built on a false premise that Germans, French,and Italians et al with different cultures, languages, etc. could ever have aligned interests that subordinated their 1,000 year old animus.
    Aug 25, 2012. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jackson Hole: Monetary Policy Under Financialism  [View article]
    Mr. Armistead hit a homerun.
    Aug 21, 2012. 07:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiving The Biofuels Mandate, Part I: Impact On Corn Prices  [View article]
    Lentils aren't used for ethanol production and this is not Dr. Web. Others prefer to obtain their protein from animal sources from time to time.
    That being said, your assertion is that the diversion of corn to mandated ethanol production will have little impact on the price of corn resulting from a decreased supply. Yet your argument is subjective and not based on the elasticity of demand with respect to corn prices nor of its substitutes, rather you argue that the alleged price increases are not manifest in CURRENT prices and that is far different from what prices may be in the future using empirical and anecdotal dynamic models rather than your allegedly "robust" and impliedly static models. Dollars to donuts that "corn flakes" will be more expensive much sooner than later and that is nothing to so cavalierly dismiss.
    Aug 21, 2012. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiving The Biofuels Mandate, Part I: Impact On Corn Prices  [View article]
    If you accept as true your assertion that "the sustained high petroleum prices that have been a characteristic of the "recovery" from the Great Recession have incentivized continued production," then the rationale for subsidizing ethanol producers by penalizing refiners and the second derivative trade of farmers producing more corn to meet the "formerly" artificial demand is removed.
    Aug 21, 2012. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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