I am an active investor in crude, natural gas and gold as well as index ETF's for both commodities and stocks. I have learned a great deal about the markets over the past 38 years of 'training' and it was an expensive education. It takes about 20 years to figure out that there is very little that is rational about the markets because if they were rational, then everyone would be making money. It doesn't work that way. An irrational market that is rising will continue to rise until the majority of traders finally see good reasons for the excessive valuations. That's when a bull market is near it's end. Just when it all finally starts to make some sense and it looks 'safe' to be fully invested, the market will top out and die. Complacency is deadly to one's financial health! What you think you know from reading and listening to the experts is almost always proven to wrong. The only thing that matters to the market is profits,not GDP, not unemployment, and definitely not how many poor people are on food stamps. Options are for suckers. You a have few nice nice winners and a whole lot more losers. You cannot beat the time decay consistently to become an a long term winner at the options game. A traders biggest enemy is the media who engage in brainwashing at a conscience and sub-conscience level. The dissemination of useless information ensures that the majority of traders will always be on the wrong side of a big move. The media is owned the rich and there is nothing they like better than to relieve the retail investor of his money. An analyst or market guru who has enjoyed a good run of calling the markets successfully, will eventually suffer and even longer stretch being dead wrong. It inevitably costs their faithful followers substantial amounts of money to learn that hard lesson.