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Coltgunsil

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  • Melco Crown lower after reporting Q4 revenue drop [View news story]
    When this company was doing well but failed to meet inflated expectations it's price was punished. Now when this company does poorly ( because of Chinese Government policies), and earnings and revenue tumble mightily yoy, the stock price goes up. Go figure!
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Melco Crown Has Been Facing Challenges [View article]
    Apparently this writer is completely unaware that Melco operates a newly open casino in Manila (a very large city) that "operations are only limited to the Macau region" is an incorrect statement.

    President Xi also indicated at the recently concluded Communist Party Pleneum that the anti corruption campaign is close to winding down and has set a +7% goal for the economy.
    Dec 4, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sands China top Macau pick from Value Partners [View news story]
    Macau gaming stocks are the victims of their own past success. This will continue for another six months. We have had 5 successive months where analysts unfairly compare recent performance to past performance. By the time 2015 gets here the analysts will be comparing Jan,Feb and March to 2014 monthly numbers which we all know were exceptionally high.

    The fact that these well run companies have adjusted to the temporary environment now existing, and managed their businesses to account for the lower revenues very well, will be lost in the noise over year over year comparisons in the 2015 first quarter.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Could Be More Downside Ahead For Melco Crown [View article]
    Daniel,

    Thanks for writing such a well balanced article. For the record, I have ridden MPEL up, and I am sad to say down. I am now the sidelines waiting to jump back in.

    One factor that caught me by surprise was the depth of the anti corruption campaign. We have seen these campaigns before, but not for these depths or duration. While the mass market segment of the gambling sector has grown, the VIP's which have in the past contributed the most revenue, is still frightened by the anti corruption campaign and the mass market has not yet filled the void.

    Another factor weighing MPEL down is that the Manila casino has been slow to fully open. In fact, MPEL has always had a poor record in getting new properties open, and it has taken them longer to turn them profitable.

    Long term, I still love the company, but until I see the VIP's return and hear soothing words from Pres. Xi about the overall economy and the end of the anti corruption campaign. I'm going to sit tight.
    Nov 5, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: Appears To Be A Long-Term Buy [View article]
    In the past, Macau has always been about expensive VIP play. Now, despite overall declines in Macau's in VIP segment revenue (due to the unprecedented depth of an anti corruption campaign on the mainland), LVS has actually grown the mass market segment, making itself less reliant on VIP agents/reps.

    And, EPS in the last quarter of $.83 a share (est $.84) vs $.76 a share in 2013, even with lower VIP play for four consecutive months, shows how well run this company really is!
    Oct 22, 2014. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Corp. Quarterly Earnings Analysis [View article]
    The fact that LVS has reported these earnings in the face of three straight months of
    Macau gaming numbers declines tell me two things.

    1. This is a well run company that is able to adjust to changing market conditions.
    2. While this last anti corruption campaign has gone deeper than previous ones, the Communist Party " inside politics" cannot stop Chinese from gambling. The urge is just too great.

    LVS, Wynn, Melco and Galaxy stocks have rebounded nicely since the LVS earnings report.
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: Take the long view on Macau casino stocks [View news story]
    The Communist Party Plenum is Mid Nov. Expect Pres. Xi to make a report on the anti corruption campaign. If he says it's been a success, then I would interpret that it's over. If he says we hane more work to do, then expect a bumpy ride.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 16% drop in Macau gaming revenue for September forecast [View news story]
    The Macau VIP segment will continue to suffer until Pres. Xi delivers a clear message at the Communist Party Plenum in November as to whether the anti corruption campaign is over or not.
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch Ratings slashes Macau growth projections for this year [View news story]
    Chinese Golden Week which starts Oct 3. is normally a big holiday for VIP Macau visitors. This year they will be nervous about attending.

    The Communist Party Plenum will be held in Mid November. At this congress I expect President Xi to give the attendees a report on the success of the anti corruption campaign. He can say one of two things: 1. There is more work to do. or 2, We have achieved great success...... and everyone will know the purge is over.

    What he says (1 or 2 above) will set the tone for Macau until the New Year.
    Sep 12, 2014. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: Valuation attractive on Melco Crown [View news story]
    And still, no one is factoring in, or even mentioning, Melco's about to open casino in Manila.
    Aug 26, 2014. 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Any Upside Potential With Melco Crown? [View article]
    Manila might open as early as September.....and all of the 25 year old "analysts"don't even have this on their radar.....amazing or incompetence?

    And pre-opening expenses for Manila certainly had an effect on 2nd quarter earnings...something else the analysts are missing.

    LVS and MPEL have bottomed out. Stay long my friends.
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Of The Day: Melco Crown [View article]
    That Macau gaming stocks were effected by the World Cup in June and July, there is no doubt.

    Anti Corruption campaigns in China are a 30 year myth.

    China is still the fastest growing economy in the world.

    Macau casino's are still the most profitable.

    UnionPay Cards are still in use.

    Melco will open the second and largest casino in Manila in September. Those pre opening expenses effected last quarter's profits.

    To paraphrase "the most interesting man in the world" from the beer commercial..."stay long my friends."
    Aug 14, 2014. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: Presenting A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Dear Mr. Tai,

    China always has an anti corruption campaign going on. They are big on announcements but weak on results.

    And, UnionPay Cards continue to be used.....with Macau government blessing. There are just too many Macau residents tied into this industry for the government to do it harm.
    Aug 11, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: The 'Best Bet' In A Growing Casino Industry [View article]
    A very well researched piece. Macau July gaming revenues were up 70% yoy. So why is this stock down?

    Because 25 year old analysts are "worried" about a non existent correlation between Gambling and the "slowdown" in the Chinese economy and a very minor irritation of UnionPay Cards. Oh, and let's not forget the always on going anti corruption campaign.

    Bottom-line: people who want to short this stock will always make up a reason, regardless of management's great performance.
    Aug 1, 2014. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands - Macao Slowdown Is Evident In Second Quarter Results [View article]
    85 vs 89 in EPS. Plus 29 million in bonuses equals 88. Great job Sheldon.
    Jul 18, 2014. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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