k_denninger

Subprime Borrowers Causing Upside Surprise: What's Happening Here?

Oops - sorry, that's all screwed up with the links!

Let's try it again... top level blog at and the Countrywide specific hit at

Subprime Borrowers Causing Upside Surprise: What's Happening Here?

Spot on.

Covered in depth - including Countrywide and others, at

This is one of my speciality areas right now. Home prices absolutely are overheated <i>and so is the consumer.</i> Proof? How about all that record interest income reported by all the card issuers? Makes stockholders real happy. What's it make YOU if you're the one who charged up your credit card because you can't refi again and your HELOC is maxed out after the third Plasma TV?

Hmmmm.....

Subprime Fallout: Good For Countrywide, Bad For Choicepoint, Bankrate

Countrywide has 90% of their business in prime?

Nonsense. From their own 10K and 10Qs, a huge percentage of their originations were in fact ALT-A.

What's worse, SAMUELS, THEIR OWN CFO, said <b>in sworn testimony on the hill</b> just a couple of weeks ago that fully <b>sixty percent</b> of their customers over the last two years could not have qualified if they were forced to do so under the fully-indexed rate.

Countrywide is not a big Subprime Lender (although they ARE listed as an unsecured creditor in NEWC's bankruptcy filing) BUT they are a HUGE ALT-A lender.

AHM, who is also a large ALT-A lender, just warned. Both they and M&amp;T have said <b>they cannot sell their ALT-A loans into the market for more than the cost of origination.</b>

How does Countrywide avoid this? I don't see how they can. They've admitted that half or more of their customers of the last couple of years could not qualify under <b>PRUDENT</b... lending guidelines (under oath now, remember?)

Will they go under? Probably not. But their current stock price certainly appears to be "wishful thinking" to me in light of their public, under-oath statements.