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  • Is This the Start of a Bear Market? [View article]
    I believe there is a significant chance we are about to see "down a lot."

    The 200DMA, as mentioned, is a good marker.

    Take a look at the Russell 2000. That would be the definition of "down a lot" starting, and when one major index rolls over like this, the others <b>usually</b... (but not always) follow.

    Therefore, I believe it is prudent to take protective steps. But then again, I thought that was true a while ago. Now it appears that we may be facing exactly the scenario that I believed was coming.

    Valuations are actually quite expensive, if you take out the radical underperformers since January. Remove the financials from the S&amp;P and you'll find that the overall P/E is quite high. On the Nasdaq its even worse.

    Reality is that there has been a big LBO "PUT" on the market for the last year or two. This is disappearing. Therefore, you must now go back and re-evaluate what is a rational valuation for the market <b>without</b... that PUT.

    When I do that, I find myself staring at a 20-30% downward adjustment from where we are now.
    Jul 29 17:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Is the Market Due for a Pullback? [View article]
    One thing to pay attention to here is the pattern on the breakdown in 2000 and correlation - or not - here.

    In 2000 the SPX peaked in early 1999. It then made a stab at those highs in September, failed, and we know what happened from there.

    This time it is the Nasdaq and the Russell that are leading the turndown. The S&amp;P is technically damaged although to a lesser degree while the Dow continues to try to push out of its wedge to the upside.

    Something has to give; the S&amp;P and OEX are not "along for the ride" here - the last few days this rally has been powered almost entirely on the backs of 30 stocks.

    You tell me how that ends.....
    May 16 08:27 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke's Fed Offers Investors False Reassurance [View article]
    I agree entirely.

    I've been following this on my blog at market-ticker.denninge... for quite some time.

    The same-store sales picture is not unexpected. All you had to do is read the credit card issuer's financials during earnings season, then the credit report.

    Duh. The home ATM machine is closed, so now we're charging up the credit cards.

    That ends badly - very badly - when the consumer bangs up against his credit limit and can't refi it into the house any more!
    May 10 19:02 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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