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Joe from the Beach

Joe from the Beach
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: EU CPI Data Adds To Deflation Fears [View article]
    The virus probably has a net positive charge and as such will move as directed by magnetic fields. Face masks and protective clothing, while helpful, are not a total defense against the virus.
    Oct 14 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: What Went Wrong And What Investors Need To Know About The Bankruptcy Process [View article]
    History may not repeat exactly but there is certain rhyme. Back in the 80s there was a company, Inslaw, which had software contract with the United States Department of Justice. The DOJ wanted to give the contract to a company called Hadron. DOJ simply refused to any Inslaw invoices. Since DOJ was the only customer of Inslaw, Inslaw filed for bankruptcy. The bankruptcy judge found that the DOJ acted with fraud and deceit.

    In what was perhaps the best series of financial articles I ever read, Barron's Maggie Maher detailed all of the above.

    Another BK now but the judge in his secrecy ruling appears to be in Apple's pocket. With a monumentally unconcerned SEC, little guys have no advocate. Best thing then, avoid any further buy of GTAT stocks.

    The Inslaw was case overturned by higher Federal courts and the judge was quietly removed. Inslaw never got paid, but DOJ got its software.

    The rhyme here is if the crook is big enough it wins.
    Oct 10 01:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Karma Reversed? [View article]
    I wonder the effect of lower prices and swap contracts. Last quarter a good many E&P companies took heavy derivative losses with the price of crude fairly steady. With the sharp decline the price of crude in Q3, will the E&P swap contractors make money or even loss more?
    Oct 10 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Can Current Shareholders Walk Away With Any Value? [View article]
    No one seems to be looking at this correctly. The first step in bankruptcy is an automatic stay put on all creditors, secured or unsecured. Apple cannot take over the GTAT assets without prior approval of the Bankruptcy Court Oddly, Apple could be ordered to make the next contract payment, if and when GTAT does what it contracted to do.

    When looking at GATT’s assets, there is no tangible value put on the Apple contract. This contract could be very valuable, if and when GTAT performs as promised.

    I still would not step up and buy GTAT stock as the CEO does not appear capable of getting the job done and the CFO put the company in a position where almost all of its debt came due immediately.

    The key here is a deep pocket rescuer who has strong industrial processing experience. Somebody will show up here, maybe not Apple, but many other big companies might jump in and buy GTAT common on the cheap,, and payoff its creditors, and make a bundle.

    As to us out there with a few dollars available for speculation, GTAT'a bonds might be something to look at. If a White Knight gets GTAT, GTAT's bonds might go back to par.
    Oct 8 04:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hilton Trade [View article]
    Not luck. Steven A. Schwarezman belongs to the right clubs.
    Sep 23 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Living Longer And Making Money: Life Extending Businesses [View article]
    GERN is not necessary narrowly focused. Its in a very promising research area: enzyme pathways within the human body. Its these pathways which promote or decrease vital body functions, such the movement of effective T cells or movement of cancer cells.

    Its current FDA concern, liver function, will eventually be resolved. Once resolved the stock should soar. No guarantee but a reasonable risk with an ample reward.
    Sep 18 12:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees? [View article]
    Looking the Relative Volatility Index put out by ThinkorSwim. I see a value of 22.31. This means that the block sellers of GTAT are exhausted. Previously, when the RVI went down below 30, the srock went up. In December of 2013 the RVI was around 25 and the stock was about $7 a share. In May of this year the RVI was at 23 and the stock about $13. Sharp rallies followed both low RVI values.

    On the fundamental side, the Q4 e.p.s. are not significant. The full year 2015 is paramount. Can this management get its act together and meet deadlines? Even after 2015, the product is apparently unique and I would guess has decades of use in multiple items. In this regard, one place that has to be the Department of Defense, which must have need for face plates that do not break under stressful conditions and has the funding to do whatever it wants..
    Sep 16 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies - Short Interest Drops, But Does It Matter Now? [View article]
    True, Those shorting the stock and buying the convertible appear to be smart players. But those knaves out there that were naked shorts and had prior knowledge should prosecuted.
    Sep 11 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies - Short Interest Drops, But Does It Matter Now? [View article]
    With so much stock short prior to the Apple I Phone announcement, one has to at least look at insider trading. How many of the shorts knew as a fact that the I Phone 6's would not have the sapphire screen? My guess, most did.

    The SEC needs to do its job. At a minimum it should look at the 20 largest short positions, date them, and see if there was any contact between Apple or GTAT and the short sellers. This is a little bigger than Martha Stewart.
    Sep 11 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is EOG Resources On The Up? [View article]
    The problems I see here are (1) the price of crude may go to less than $90 (2) while year to year comparisons are very good: Quarter to Quarter are barely positive.
    Sep 8 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Let's Make A Deal [View article]
    Consider a tax inversion for GILD. If they bought a Dublin based company, shuffled some papers, they save tens of billions and pay for the Dublin based company from the tax savings.
    Aug 28 11:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Handsomely Beat The Market, Buy Petroamerica Oil With Both Hands [View article]

    The big picture here may be the location of Columbia with Pacific Ocean ports. Columbia's crude should be world competitive when shipped to Far East or the US West Coast. Another factor is the rise of Pacific Rubiales. That company should be the major Colombian energy company as the State owned company shrinks.

    PTAXF is then is right place at the right time. Its less than 2.0 EV/EBITDA should eventually be irresistible to Pacific R. As VD said, to the investor its also irresistible with its low valuation..
    Aug 27 12:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources Is Set To Take Back Its Crown And To Double Its Reserves [View article]
    CLR has a few problems:

    1. Quarter to Quarter earnings were down
    2. Interest expense up with revenue down
    3. Possible significant derivatives losses
    4. Bakken oil is disadvantaged as most has to be hauled out by rail

    EOG a much better play, as might be APA and for the high risk taker LNREF
    Aug 25 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do These 4 Energy Companies Remain Excellent Short Candidates? [View article]
    I admit to be too old to short stocks. Best approach for me is to avoid companies with weak prospects and/or poor management. You have to be positive to make money in stocks. So rather than taking a shot at a company with a very high EV/EBITDA, one might have more success bu buying low EV/EBITDA ratios. Three of VD's prior recommendations stand out: EPSEF, LNREF, and CAZFF. I would note that Yahoo has incorrect numbers on both LNREF and CAZFF, while VD has the numbers right.
    Aug 19 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices: After Steep Decline, Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    NG has a real time direct correlation with weather. Unless then you are good at intermediate weather prediction, you can only guess what the future prices will be.

    But there are a couple of game changers out there. (1) a large export market (2) conversation of power plants from coal to NG.

    The latter has politics front and center, but the States of West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio could line up against coal, if offered,say, major Interstate highways. The former is a done deal waiting for LNG faculties to be up and running.

    So I agree with VD in that one should buy undervalued stocks such as Epsilon and be patient.
    Aug 12 12:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment