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Joe from the Beach

Joe from the Beach
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  • Gilead: Let's Make A Deal [View article]
    Consider a tax inversion for GILD. If they bought a Dublin based company, shuffled some papers, they save tens of billions and pay for the Dublin based company from the tax savings.
    Aug 28 11:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Handsomely Beat The Market, Buy Petroamerica Oil With Both Hands [View article]

    The big picture here may be the location of Columbia with Pacific Ocean ports. Columbia's crude should be world competitive when shipped to Far East or the US West Coast. Another factor is the rise of Pacific Rubiales. That company should be the major Colombian energy company as the State owned company shrinks.

    PTAXF is then is right place at the right time. Its less than 2.0 EV/EBITDA should eventually be irresistible to Pacific R. As VD said, to the investor its also irresistible with its low valuation..
    Aug 27 12:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources Is Set To Take Back Its Crown And To Double Its Reserves [View article]
    CLR has a few problems:

    1. Quarter to Quarter earnings were down
    2. Interest expense up with revenue down
    3. Possible significant derivatives losses
    4. Bakken oil is disadvantaged as most has to be hauled out by rail

    EOG a much better play, as might be APA and for the high risk taker LNREF
    Aug 25 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do These 4 Energy Companies Remain Excellent Short Candidates? [View article]
    I admit to be too old to short stocks. Best approach for me is to avoid companies with weak prospects and/or poor management. You have to be positive to make money in stocks. So rather than taking a shot at a company with a very high EV/EBITDA, one might have more success bu buying low EV/EBITDA ratios. Three of VD's prior recommendations stand out: EPSEF, LNREF, and CAZFF. I would note that Yahoo has incorrect numbers on both LNREF and CAZFF, while VD has the numbers right.
    Aug 19 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices: After Steep Decline, Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    NG has a real time direct correlation with weather. Unless then you are good at intermediate weather prediction, you can only guess what the future prices will be.

    But there are a couple of game changers out there. (1) a large export market (2) conversation of power plants from coal to NG.

    The latter has politics front and center, but the States of West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio could line up against coal, if offered,say, major Interstate highways. The former is a done deal waiting for LNG faculties to be up and running.

    So I agree with VD in that one should buy undervalued stocks such as Epsilon and be patient.
    Aug 12 12:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Chesapeake Energy Is Banking On America's Next Top Shale Play [View article]
    Thanks for mentioning Michigan, where CHK is accused of bid rigging. Bid rigging is an anti free market ploy designed to cheat the small guy out his property. Michigan had to be a minor area. Neighboring Ohio is different.

    If the authorities in Ohio took a lot a where CHK and Encanda and others bid or did not bid, there might be a serious criminal or civil case to be discovered in Ohio.
    Aug 4 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Portugal Rescues Banco Espirito Santo With $6.6B [View article]
    Who benefits from chaos in the Ukraine and Gaza? My guess: oil producing countries.

    If the chaos is State sponsored, which States?
    Aug 4 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Chesapeake Energy Is Banking On America's Next Top Shale Play [View article]
    Not worth the uncertainty attached to major litigation. I'll pass on this one until if and when they settle. Better plays are Value Digger's Lonestar and/or Epsilon.

    Let me get on my soapbox and condemn companies and their lawyers who draw up opaque contracts designed to screw whoever signs them. Wall Street firms did this and almost brought down the world's financial system I have no idea what CHK did or did not do, but if they are fair with their counter parties, settlement should be easy.
    Aug 4 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Permian Pure-Play RSP Permian Means Business [View article]

    Ms. Warren

    What is RSPP's average cost per well and average daily production rates on successful wells?
    Jul 30 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Massive Undervaluation: A Pictorial Overview [View article]
    I would guess that GILD's pipeline is stronger than what the company has disclosed.

    If I understand Sovladi's mechanism of action: disabling the peptides which carry the virus. This method, quite probably, can be applied to other viruses or even other non viral diseases. If so, to use a 1920's cliche: you aint seen nothing yet!
    Jul 30 11:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Are An Alpha Seeker Looking For The Next Big Energy Play, Load Epsilon Energy Now [View article]
    I would suggest some patience here, As VD pointed out, Epsilon compares well with its peers. The overview yields a company positioned to produce and move natural gas in the right part of the county. Pennsylvania, as opposed to North Dakota or, say, Loving County Texas, with a population of under 200,, is in the middle of the most populated part of the United States.

    This means that people who have a choice between natural gas and heating oil will chose the much cheaper energy source. Transportation companies will also gradually switch away from gasoline and diesel to natural gas, Even utilities which now use coal will move to the much cleaner natural gas.

    Looking out some 5 to 10 years, Epsilon is indeed in a sweet spot and thanks to the sharp eyed Value Digger we have our chance to invest at a reasonable price.

    Jul 29 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Reports Q3 EPS - Reiterating Buy Here [View article]
    If Apple is a good of a bet as others have posted, why not do even better with GTAT or INVN?
    Jul 22 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Might Not Use Sapphire, Short GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    I look at this subjectively. Apple for the past three decades has always sought the high end of the market. The deal with IBM means that Apple wants to be number one in the corporate world. Most corporations will go for the best available smart phone, not the cheapest smart phone. Very likely then that Apple will adopt Sapphire as standard.
    Jul 19 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Oil Mergers And Acquisitions Targets To Focus On After The Kodiak Deal [View article]
    The best measure of candidates for acquisition might be the companies EV/EBITDA. The lower the number the more probability of a buyout. A company carrying an EV/EBTIDA of less than five, if acquired at that price, will let the buyer receive its purchase price back in five years of consistent earnings from the acquired company. Not a bad bet.

    Three companies with EV/EBTIDA of less than 5 are APA. MRO. and LNREF
    Jul 15 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apache Commitment To North American Push [View article]
    Apache could be the first step in what I call a Golden Path. With 3 million acres under lease in the Permian, Apache is and will a major Permian producer. The best and most economical route for the crude should be to Big Springs Texas. Alon has a refinery in Big Springs. From Big Springs, Magellan has an extensive pipeline system which moves gasoline.

    The Apache, Alon, Magellan route yields lowest cost gasoline in the Untied States. As such the route is the Golden Path.
    Jul 9 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment