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Joe from the Beach

Joe from the Beach
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  • Is This The End Of The 'Shale Oil Bubble?' Or The Beginning? [View article]
    Someone on CNBC said today that crude is 80% levered. If so, a 40% decline has to have wiped out many a trader. Margin calls made the drop worse than the supply demand forces. In 1929 we had 90% margin which rolled into a 90% stock market decline. Most oil companies will have less profit with $60 oil but should be around to live another day. All they have to do is not spend in 2015. Both their P. E.s' and price will fall but that is just normal in most market situations.

    Traders. banks and hedge funds are the ones on the hook. As for traders and hedge funds they took the risk and should suffer the pain. Banks however, are still too big to fail Banks are fiduciaries for other people's money and as such should never make 80% leverage bets. The cry here is for tight bank regulation. Fat chance with the current Congress.
    Dec 13, 2014. 12:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Short Squeeze Is Here [View article]
    Best way to play this IMO is 1,000 shares of GERN coupled with 100 shares VHT. Minimize the risk by combining the guys with ideas and the guys with money and the will.
    Nov 14, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Amazon Punished After Massive Loss [View article]
    Help! My Iphone 4s contract expires in December. I would like to replace it with an ordinary cell phone and a tablet.

    My thought is this would be cheaper than a Iphone 6 contract and, more importantly, the tablet should give better access the Seeking Alpha site. Right now I use the SA frequently but with some difficulty on the 4s, as the charts withing articles are not sized correctly and I keep getting Install App message.

    Anybody have any thoughts on this?

    Thx
    Oct 24, 2014. 10:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Major Reasons Why The Current Low Oil Price Is Not Here To Stay [View article]
    One factor for the domestic frackers is swaps. In Q2 many of those companies had interest cost and derivative cost were almost equal. With the price of crude down sharply, should not the swaps become profitable? If so, Lonestar's Q3 might be an upside surprise.

    Second I may be the only one here, but I side with the Russians. If Ukraine can't pay for Russian gas why should they more? No company or country can sell to dead beats.

    Third The real growth area for energy is Asia. Your PTAFX is well positioned here as its can get it product on the high seas and move it cheaply East.
    Oct 22, 2014. 11:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: EU CPI Data Adds To Deflation Fears [View article]
    The virus probably has a net positive charge and as such will move as directed by magnetic fields. Face masks and protective clothing, while helpful, are not a total defense against the virus.
    Oct 14, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: What Went Wrong And What Investors Need To Know About The Bankruptcy Process [View article]
    History may not repeat exactly but there is certain rhyme. Back in the 80s there was a company, Inslaw, which had software contract with the United States Department of Justice. The DOJ wanted to give the contract to a company called Hadron. DOJ simply refused to any Inslaw invoices. Since DOJ was the only customer of Inslaw, Inslaw filed for bankruptcy. The bankruptcy judge found that the DOJ acted with fraud and deceit.

    In what was perhaps the best series of financial articles I ever read, Barron's Maggie Maher detailed all of the above.

    Another BK now but the judge in his secrecy ruling appears to be in Apple's pocket. With a monumentally unconcerned SEC, little guys have no advocate. Best thing then, avoid any further buy of GTAT stocks.

    The Inslaw was case overturned by higher Federal courts and the judge was quietly removed. Inslaw never got paid, but DOJ got its software.

    The rhyme here is if the crook is big enough it wins.
    Oct 10, 2014. 01:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Karma Reversed? [View article]
    I wonder the effect of lower prices and swap contracts. Last quarter a good many E&P companies took heavy derivative losses with the price of crude fairly steady. With the sharp decline the price of crude in Q3, will the E&P swap contractors make money or even loss more?
    Oct 10, 2014. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Can Current Shareholders Walk Away With Any Value? [View article]
    No one seems to be looking at this correctly. The first step in bankruptcy is an automatic stay put on all creditors, secured or unsecured. Apple cannot take over the GTAT assets without prior approval of the Bankruptcy Court Oddly, Apple could be ordered to make the next contract payment, if and when GTAT does what it contracted to do.

    When looking at GATT’s assets, there is no tangible value put on the Apple contract. This contract could be very valuable, if and when GTAT performs as promised.

    I still would not step up and buy GTAT stock as the CEO does not appear capable of getting the job done and the CFO put the company in a position where almost all of its debt came due immediately.

    The key here is a deep pocket rescuer who has strong industrial processing experience. Somebody will show up here, maybe not Apple, but many other big companies might jump in and buy GTAT common on the cheap,, and payoff its creditors, and make a bundle.

    As to us out there with a few dollars available for speculation, GTAT'a bonds might be something to look at. If a White Knight gets GTAT, GTAT's bonds might go back to par.
    Oct 8, 2014. 04:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hilton Trade [View article]
    Not luck. Steven A. Schwarezman belongs to the right clubs.
    Sep 23, 2014. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Living Longer And Making Money: Life Extending Businesses [View article]
    GERN is not necessary narrowly focused. Its in a very promising research area: enzyme pathways within the human body. Its these pathways which promote or decrease vital body functions, such the movement of effective T cells or movement of cancer cells.

    Its current FDA concern, liver function, will eventually be resolved. Once resolved the stock should soar. No guarantee but a reasonable risk with an ample reward.
    Sep 18, 2014. 12:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees? [View article]
    Looking the Relative Volatility Index put out by ThinkorSwim. I see a value of 22.31. This means that the block sellers of GTAT are exhausted. Previously, when the RVI went down below 30, the srock went up. In December of 2013 the RVI was around 25 and the stock was about $7 a share. In May of this year the RVI was at 23 and the stock about $13. Sharp rallies followed both low RVI values.

    On the fundamental side, the Q4 e.p.s. are not significant. The full year 2015 is paramount. Can this management get its act together and meet deadlines? Even after 2015, the product is apparently unique and I would guess has decades of use in multiple items. In this regard, one place that has to be the Department of Defense, which must have need for face plates that do not break under stressful conditions and has the funding to do whatever it wants..
    Sep 16, 2014. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies - Short Interest Drops, But Does It Matter Now? [View article]
    True, Those shorting the stock and buying the convertible appear to be smart players. But those knaves out there that were naked shorts and had prior knowledge should prosecuted.
    Sep 11, 2014. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies - Short Interest Drops, But Does It Matter Now? [View article]
    With so much stock short prior to the Apple I Phone announcement, one has to at least look at insider trading. How many of the shorts knew as a fact that the I Phone 6's would not have the sapphire screen? My guess, most did.

    The SEC needs to do its job. At a minimum it should look at the 20 largest short positions, date them, and see if there was any contact between Apple or GTAT and the short sellers. This is a little bigger than Martha Stewart.
    Sep 11, 2014. 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is EOG Resources On The Up? [View article]
    The problems I see here are (1) the price of crude may go to less than $90 (2) while year to year comparisons are very good: Quarter to Quarter are barely positive.
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Let's Make A Deal [View article]
    Consider a tax inversion for GILD. If they bought a Dublin based company, shuffled some papers, they save tens of billions and pay for the Dublin based company from the tax savings.
    Aug 28, 2014. 11:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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