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Joe from the Beach

Joe from the Beach
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    While I am reluctant to confuse people with facts and unpopular opinions, the cost of fuel is not going up. My measure, crack spreads, are down about 30% since February. The Fed is fighting deflation not inflation and will constitute to do so until somehow the country can get around the House Republicans who are a national disgrace, putting party ahead of country.
    May 23 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Bay Realty Trust: A Disaster Waiting To Happen [View article]
    I would guess that a change in the immigration law which allows the non documented legal residence, will change the game and put companies like SBY on top. ,
    May 22 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Deercreekvols

    Looking at the site that you posted, the charts for KMP and EPD say buy.

    RE NBG. My guess is that a place bet on ORB in the Preakness is a sounder bet.
    May 17 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting HFC: Wrong So Far, But... [View article]
    According S & P if you invested $10,000 in Holly five years ago ,you would have more than $25,000 now. Even assuming some the pessimism is justified, chances are you will earn at least a 100% return on HFC if you hold it for the next five years. The man is right don't you dare sell this one.
    Apr 17 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    P & G to stretch payables to 75 days?

    If I were a supplier, I would for ways to make up the loss of funds

    If I were an investor, P & G could only be a short.

    If I were a consumer, I would go elsewhere rather cash desperate P & G.
    Apr 17 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HollyFrontier: Time To Increase Exposure To This Cheap Refiner Again [View article]
    The key number is the crack spread. From my numbers the Q1 2013 went down from about $38 in February to a low of $25 or so in March. I see the number this morning as $28,53 The trend appears up now. I would have to guess that the average crack spread for Q1 was about $30. ..Q2 numbers likley to be strong going into the summer driving season.
    Apr 15 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I hate to confuse the SEC with facts but. Every bank that traded on securities effected by the premature disclosure should have its trades reversed, if the counterparty did not have the FED information.

    Any commissioned individual should be indicited upon proof of insider trading.

    The SEC has the recourses to track down all these trades, but do they have the will?
    Apr 11 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The only real issue with MF Global is the loss of customer money. Why can't one party out there or even the Tea party take an aggressive stance in favor of investor rights?
    Apr 5 09:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I do not understand how the USG and Mr. Holder in particular decided that individuals are too big to be prosecuted. The country need its big banks. These institutions represent America power and influence.They can't be run by dishonest people. Those people need to be weeded out. Whoever manipulated LIBOR should be out of there. Banks don't need crooks. They do need people of integrity. . .
    Mar 20 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Ethanol Mandates Hurt Your Refining Stock, Your Car, And The Economy? [View article]
    While I am in general agreement government mandates should not over come market forces, I think this article has little to offer to the investor. What is lacking is the dollars and cents impact on refiners earnings. If ethanol cast goes up say 10 percent and say the refiner uses 10% ethanol, the impact is a one percent increase in the refiners' cost of product.

    The real issue here the supply and demand curve for refined products. The author states that gasoline demand will fall from 140 billion barrels to 135 billion barrels ( a decrease of about 3.57%) The otrher side of this is overall refining capacity. I can'r put a number on this but its a multiple of the 3.57%. Demad is down byt supply has shrink further, so refiners are good places for investors to be.
    Mar 19 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The Cyprus idea of taxing bank deposits is as stupid as Henry Paulson;s idea to give banks billions with no strings attached. Cyprus seems to be crying for a run on its banks. Paulson's has the mega banks still goniff controlled. Did anybody listen to the JPM testimony? Those bankers prove my case.
    Mar 18 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Lighten Up On The Refiners [View article]
    I do recall that with crack spreads solidly above $20 VLO hit 70+. Today we have spreads closer to $30 and VLO is around $44. The ethanol buy problem appears to have only a negative 1% to earnings. Lastly refiners are good places to be in uncertain markets as the supply demand curve is inelastic for gasoline.

    All that said the better place rather than VLO is HFC which is better positioned and has better numbers than VLO.
    Mar 18 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    To paraphase a character within a Mario Puzo novel: Never mind he guy with the gun, watch out for the guy with the brief case.

    A company loses $6 billion on trades that escape any details. Could it be that the “loss” was a bank robbery with no gun but via a brief case or two?
    Mar 15 09:32 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Linn Energy And Pick Up Pioneer Southwest At A Cheaper Valuation, Bigger Yield [View article]
    Maybe I am confused. I thought Phelps sold calls and bought puts. When the price of copper exceeded the call strike plus whatever they got for the puts, the losses were not costless.

    Are you thinking of buying calls and selling puts?
    Mar 12 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Linn Energy And Pick Up Pioneer Southwest At A Cheaper Valuation, Bigger Yield [View article]
    My recollection of "costless collars" goes back to Phelps Dodge. It sold copper calls and brought copper puts with the cash it got from the sale of the calls. Initially there was no cost. When copper rose in price the calls kicked in and Phelps Dodge had a $900 million loss and counting.

    Beware when someone talks you into a costless trade!
    Mar 12 11:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
303 Comments
434 Likes