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Joe from the Beach

Joe from the Beach
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  • Bonanza Creek: The Best Way To Play The Niobrara; Valuation Implies 40% Upside [View article]
    How does the recent resignations of two top BCEI executives fit into your analysis?
    Apr 2 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Annual Valuation Of Actavis - 2014 [View article]
    Your article is accurate but somewhat misguided. ACT has consensus future earnings of:

    Current Quarter: $3.20
    Next Quarter: $3.22
    2014 $13,02
    2015 $ 14,60.

    Based on those numbers the ACT stock is still cheap.
    Apr 2 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Fair Value $128/Share, 67% Downside - Primed To Plunge [View article]
    Sometimes in evaluating stocks one can get lost of the objective side. The one unknown which probably trumps all projections is future prices for what the company is providing. For example, there is one SA writer out there that makes rigoriuos calculations for MVO , an oil royalty trust, The projections assume an average price of $70 for crude for the next 12 years. The writer might turn out to be right but he ignores he fact that the royalty trust has in effect a twelve year call on the price of crude and this call has value.

    On the subjective side, Netflix has at it helm Reed Hastings. His decisions to move from DVDs to streaming and to produce its own content where huge winning moves. The future of a company run by a person with his track record appear to be rather bright. Perhaps bright enough to easily garner all future capitol requirements.

    Ont the micro level, as a recent ROKU purchaser, I would guess my use is about 85% Netflix, 10% Pandora and 5% Amazon Prime. If others do likewise, Netflix is in a strong future earnings position. .
    Mar 25 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache's Shale Oil Push In North America [View article]
    According to Yahoo APA has 11,500,000 North American gross acres under lease, including, if I recall correctly 3,000,000 acres in the Permian. Its EV/EBTIDA Is only 3.44. This means its accretive to most mega oil companies. But I think they would be foolish to sell at 4 4.5 EV/EBTIDA. i rather see them buy a small but knowledgeable fracker such as MTDR.

    PS The author's book, available for $3.49 at Amazon, may be bargain equal to APA stock at $79
    Mar 18 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. beats by $0.02, misses on revenue [View news story]
    I think you meant Barnett, not Bakken,
    Feb 25 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Responds To Criticism [View article]
    From the Barron's article it would appear that EPD is a better place to put your money than any of the Kinders. For whatever its worth IMHO the best play in a good overall sector is MMP.
    Feb 23 09:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Questcor A Good Investment? [View article]
    The trade secret approach is a plus. Reverse engineering of a natural product is expensive and difficult.
    Feb 20 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Looks like the HP Autonomy merger has the attention of the UK's Serious Fraud Office. These fellows may think that HP was incredibly stupid, but perhaps they should look first at where the $11 + billion went. Conflicked people? World Class Crooks?
    Feb 18 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Occidental Petroleum: Catalysts Will Power This 3% Yielder Higher [View article]
    How is spinning off California assets a positive?
    Feb 15 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Sometimes small is better. Matador Petroleum (MTDR), with only 50 employees, has a market cap of over $1.3 billion. They just fracked up some oil in Loving County Texas. Loving County has a mere 60 residents.
    Feb 13 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    One of the people I have admred over the years is Warren Buffet. Maybe I was wrong. Berkshire is closing three Heinz plants and laying off a 1,000 people. Shame for a multi-billionaire to destroy the lives of a 1,000+ people to pinch a few pennies.
    Feb 11 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon: More 'Major' Moves In The Permian Basin Shale Oil Play [View article]
    On a 20 year term, XOM is compelling buy. On a five year term, OXY looks better. For the speculator, PBT is an interesting risk.
    Feb 11 09:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Building An Army To Fight Apple [View article]
    AAPL should buy IDCC for say $1.3 billion. Give it autonomy, as they have been owning and handling communications patents at a profit for the last 10 years or so. This move will keep the Samsung army in court. at $500-$1,000 per hour, forever or until the army gives up and surrenders.
    Feb 6 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Poised To Disrupt Another Industry [View article]
    Apple should buy Netfflix. They could pay say a 20% premium and get the whole company for $30 billion. They would also get Reed Hasting, who might be in the same league as Steve Jobs was. With Apple TV and Netflix, Apple could dominate the area just as they did with Itunes for recordings.

    They could also take a $100 billion put into five equal parts: Berkshire Hathaway, Blackrock, S&P 500, Russell 3000 & Ray Dalio's Hedge fund.
    Jan 30 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: Why You Should Like The Pullback [View article]
    RSI according to TDAmeritrade 16.71.
    Jan 24 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment