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varan

varan
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  • AllThingsD: Twitter falling well short of user growth target [View news story]
    I agree with Mr. Kostorhyz.

    Twitter is a tool for political and entertainment hasbeens (and neverbeens) like Michele Bachman and the Kardashians. For other, not so much.
    Sep 13, 2013. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Sectors To Tilt Your Portfolio Exposure [View article]
    This strategy works very well for SPDR sector funds as well (the best for Fidelity Select Funds). Just once a quarter re-balancing does wonders for volatility, drawdown, as well as returns.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    For the SPDRs, the CAGR for 2007-2013 comes out to 13,3% with only 2.2% loss in 2008, 17% maximum drawdown, and Sharpe and Sortino of .8 and 1.3. YTD over 15%.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Strategies For Raising Rate Markets [View article]
    Just goes to prove my version of the le chatelier's principle adapted to investing: the market will always behave in a manner that screws the individual investor the most. Now that the baby boomers need safe income, there is none to be had. 2008 was a great illustration as well: the first batch of baby boomers were about to retire, and, boy! did they get screwed.
    Sep 12, 2013. 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We All Make Many Mistakes, What Do We Do Next? [View article]
    Harry Browne had good advice for all individual investors.

    http://bit.ly/18TpLVl

    Whether you follow his permanent portfolio or not, and even if you are not a libertarian, his 16 golden rules of investing make a lot of sense, and will enable you to understand and face your predicament (if it can be characterized as such).
    Sep 12, 2013. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Safe Dividend Stocks When Using The 4% Rule [View article]
    If you just invested in 60% SP500 with dividends (VFINX) and 40% VUSTX, anybody who started the distribution phase in 1991 ( the data for dates before 1991 for funds like VFINX or VUSTX is not easy to get) or any year after would have been just fine with withdrawing 4% every year in the first year, and increasing his withdrawal amount by 3% annually. Of course this is the simplest alternative and there are better ways to invest for the long term, but even this works.

    4% rule if properly applied works just fine.

    The bugaboo of OMG! you will have to sell assets to generate income that some people are so scared of (and some even try to scare others with this) is just so much noise.
    Sep 11, 2013. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    If the number of times this correlation was observed is very large, it is indeed worth noticing.

    Otherwise, it is no more than superstition to expect these signals to signify anything. Might as well look at the direction your wife was looking at when she woke up in the morning to decide which way the market will go. Or better yet ask an astrologer.
    Sep 10, 2013. 03:57 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    The market has a way of proving every one wrong in the long run. And right some times.
    Sep 10, 2013. 03:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Worth Listening To Newspaper Tips Or Investment Newsletters? [View article]
    Actually the DIH (D in hand) pattern is the best one.
    Sep 10, 2013. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Worth Listening To Newspaper Tips Or Investment Newsletters? [View article]
    What annoys me most is that as soon as the market gains a few points in a week or two, there is a sudden increase in the number of articles on SA that advise me on how to cope with the coming disaster in the market. Many of such articles are actually quite well written from the literary point of view. As to there usefulness, not so much.
    Sep 9, 2013. 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    Summary of this thread:

    (Presumed ) Obama Care Supporters:

    1. your source is biased.
    2. you should verify the claims that you make about Obamcare before you make them.

    Opponents:

    1. Obamacare leads people to lose health insurance.

    2. You are calling me a Racist for opposing Obama.

    3. Nancy.

    4. IRS BENGHAZI BENGHAZI BENGHAZI IRS OBAMA LIES SYRIA IRS BENGHAZI

    5. Liberals suck.

    6. Lefty Professors

    7. Poor insurance companies are being deprived of their profits because they cannot issue health insurance that really is not health insurance.

    8. You liberal cannot even answer the simple yes or no question: When did you stop beating your wife?

    9. Liberals suck.

    10. I have a liberal friend who really sucks.


    Coherence of the arguments is in the eyes of the beholder.
    Sep 9, 2013. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    David

    I truly and very respectfully apologize if I gave you the impression that I have either the desire or the intention to deprive you of and deny you the exquisite pleasure of winning an imaginary argument on issues that I did not raise, especially on the question of whether or not you are a racist for opposing Obama.
    Sep 8, 2013. 11:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    So do I. Have fun arguing with the liberals in your head.
    Sep 8, 2013. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    If the shoe fits and all that.

    http://bit.ly/1e6l3KR

    "The largest effect is that of Fox News: all else being equal, someone who watched only Fox News would be expected to answer just 1.04 domestic questions correctly — a figure which is significantly worse than if they had reported watching no media at all. On the other hand, if they listened only to NPR, they would be expected to answer 1.51 questions correctly; viewers of Sunday morning talk shows fare similarly well. And people watching only The Daily Show with Jon Stewart could answer about 1.42 questions correctly."
    Sep 8, 2013. 06:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    @David

    Read my post.

    Arguing against the points that the other side did not make hardly adds to the discussion. It is like screaming "GET OFF MY LAWN" at the top of your lungs at imaginary alien intruders. That may be ok for senile old gentlemen or ladies but it certainly does not behoove you.
    Sep 8, 2013. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Global Market Rotation Strategy With An Annual Performance Of 41.4% Since 2003 [View article]
    The most amazing thing about this strategy is that the maximum drawdown is only 20.1%. This is less than most of the so-called "balanced funds" (only VWINX has the lower drawdown of 18%).

    Even the almost equivalent mutual fund version of this strategy using the basket containing FDVLX FIEUX FEMKX FLATX FPBFX and VUSTX (no mutual fund equivalent to ZIV exists as far as I know) yields a CAGR of 19.7% over the longer period 1991-2013 with a maximum drawdown of 24.5%. Of course the mutual fund strategy cannot be implemented in practice as most of the funds have a hefty fee for getting out in less than two or three months. (For comparison with the performance of the ETF basket, the mutual fund strategy returns over 25% during 2003-2013.)
    Sep 8, 2013. 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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