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varan

varan
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  • The 'Too Big To Jail' Red Herring: The Jamie Dimon Edition [View article]
    Of course he is ignoring all history by conveniently hiding the fact that the watchdogs themselves have confirmed that they had no intention of prosecuting these CEOs for criminal behavior. If the prosecutors do not want to prosecute, they will have no interest in collecting evidence of criminal wrongdoing. And then the supporters of these CEOs come and have the gall to say that there is in fact no evidence of wrong doing. Of course there is none, for no one bothered to collect it.

    There are other more fair ways to empty our prison system and free up the courts than to ignore the possible criminal wrongdoings of the wealthiest Americans that caused more damage to more people than the harm caused by many other people who are routinely shoved into our prisons for essentially victimless crimes.
    Mar 19 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Become A Millionaire Without Really Trying [View article]
    If you are willing to persist even if your portfolio drops by more than 75-80%, DCA will make you rich - putting in $500 per month, for example, would have yielded a cool $2.6M today if you started on Jan. 1, 1980. However, during this time your portfolio would have grown to over $12M at one point.
    Mar 19 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Too Big To Jail' Red Herring: The Jamie Dimon Edition [View article]
    And you forgot Paulson, who engineered the bailout of his brethren in the financial industry, with TBTF as the main argument.

    The author is whitewashing all history in his wet kiss to the bankers.
    Mar 19 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Too Big To Jail' Red Herring: The Jamie Dimon Edition [View article]
    You do not even have the basic understanding of facts. Your main argument that the large size of the banks makes it easier to prosecute and scrutinize their CEOs flies in the face of the senate testimony by the watch dogs.

    And by the way, there is no such thing as 'logical truth'. Truth is truth. You seem to hide behind formulations that superficially sound profound but actually are nonsensical on closer examination.
    Mar 18 07:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Too Big To Jail' Red Herring: The Jamie Dimon Edition [View article]
    This is awesome.

    Your post is built on multiple layers of speculations, but you want anybody who disagrees with your unsupported assertions to provide an airtight legal analysis.

    You are accusing others of demagoguery, though your post is nothing more than an unapologetic defense of the bankers without any solid basis in fact.
    Mar 18 03:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    With two months of holding period, the only evaluation period that works almost as well as the two cases that I have described is three months.
    Mar 18 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Too Big To Jail' Red Herring: The Jamie Dimon Edition [View article]
    Well if you do not gather evidence that would help in prosecuting the CEOs of large banks on the basis of the assumption that the prosecution would cause upheavals in the economy, there will be no evidence of their wrong doing.

    The apologists for the Dimons want to have it both ways.

    Sadly our system is rigged for them to have their ways.
    Mar 18 02:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    Too hard to design good periodic strategies for the inverses, as the number of down periods is much smaller than the number of up periods over any sufficiently long time periods, a circumstance that we should be thankful for, as otherwise the market will not exist, at least for individuals.

    (Of course that may not be the case for daily trading or HFT, but my experience with HFT suggests that such trading is not appropriate for portfolios less than tens of millions of dollars, and if my portfolio was that large, I would be completely out of the market, and out of SA.)
    Mar 18 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    It works almost equally well with holding period of three months and evaluation period of three months.

    For 2003:2013 (In parentheses are the corresponding measures for SPY, BRK-A, and yearly updated 60/40 SPY/TLT respectively).

    CAGR 19.2% (7.3% 7.0% 8.75%)

    Sharpe .92 (.35 .3 .59)

    Kelly Fraction .36 (.24 .19 .38)

    Maximum Monthly Drawdown 19.8% (50.8% 44.5% 24.6%)

    Annual Mean Return 20.9% (9% 9.1% 9.2%)

    95% Lower bound on Annual Mean Return 9.4% (-.17% -1.5% 3.8%)


    This method appears to be quite robust.
    Mar 18 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Stock Picking A Losing Game? [View article]
    Shorter Chestnut: If you are a good stock picker, you will beat the market.
    Mar 17 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Stock Picking A Losing Game? [View article]
    You can always hide behind the assertion 'that my goals are not to beat the market but xxxxxxx', where xxxxx represents a metric that justifies your past decisions ex post facto. Then by definition you are great stock picker no matter what anyone else says and what the performance of your portfolio is. For example if your portfolio does not beat the market or some other simple, e.g. 60/40, portfolio, you can claim that the yield on cost has increased to 200% which investing in SPY or any other simple portfolio could never achieve.

    Self-delusion may sometimes be a great tool to enable you to think highly of yourself and your abilities. Who knows, you may even cultivate a bunch of followers on SA.
    Mar 17 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why PEG Ratio Analysis Is A Silly Tool [View article]
    Since all these numbers just give you a quick way to look at the value of a stock, they are by their very nature approximations to reality (which in this case is the estimated intrinsic value of the stock inasmuch as it could be different from the current value that the market assigns to it). Of course the reality, since it is something that is not observable, is itself never known very accurately.

    So these kind of discussions about how bad the approximations to reality are can go on ad-infinitum without any resolution. You can take any metric that proves to be good for a certain types of stocks during certain periods, and find examples where it completely falls apart.
    Mar 17 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    thank you.
    Mar 16 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Sector Weights Dividend Growth Portfolio - Quarterly Update March 2013 [View article]
    Most of the articles on SA go like this: I believe that if you sum X and Y (some characteristics of some style of stocks that the author likes) and if the sum is greater than 13.5 the stock will do well. For some reason the readers go ga ga.

    The other types of articles on SA are inspirational, penned by followers of Tony Robbins: Like Buffet, if you invest in a stock growing at 14% per year when you are born, you will be a zillionnaire by the time you go to college.
    Mar 15 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Sector Weights Dividend Growth Portfolio - Quarterly Update March 2013 [View article]
    Well, don't you know that dividends come with electrolytes and that DG investing is risk free.
    Mar 15 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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