Seeking Alpha

varan

varan
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View varan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Does Market Timing Matter? The Case Of SPY (Part 1) [View article]
    I think that SMA is old hat.

    Relative strength with respect to a basket of assets which are either uncorrelated or have low correlation with the asset that you are trying to trade yields much better signals. With the proper selection of the basket you can get much better returns with lower volatility than with SMA.
    Jan 8 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Dividend Champion Dogs Recap [View article]
    By the way if you had picked the ten whose 5 year rate of growth of dividend, i.e, (dividend in 2011-dividend in 2006)/dividend in 2006 was the highest, you would have reaped 16% return in 2012.

    The stocks were RLI, BEN, LOW, WAG, MCD, TGT, TROW, MDT, GWW and AFL for 2012.

    This strategy would have yielded the not too shabby CAGR of 13.9% during 1997-2012 with one factor alpha of 9.5%, beta of .53, and Sharpe Ratio of 0.62. There were four years of losses with 2008 being the worst with a loss of 23%.
    Jan 7 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Possible To Beat The Market With Two Trades A Year? [View instapost]
    Thanks.

    Without FNMIX, you do beat SPY during 1994-2012 with considerably lower volatility, but the CAGR is not as good (8.3% vs. 8.0% SPY, but with only two years of losses: 1994 -0.2%, 2001 -5.2%). Even without FNMIX, the CAGR is close to that of the 60-40 SPY/VUSTX portfolio (which returned 8.7%) but the volatility is lower.

    Replacing FNMIX by PREMX the CAGR drops to 10.8% but still with equally low volatility.

    With AWF in place of FNMIX, the CAGR is 13% (two years of losses, 1994 -16%, 2001 -3.9%) but higher volatility (still better than SPY) . The performance is improved if you use risk parity to allocate the weights (CAGR 14%, 1994 -10%, 2001 -4.1%).

    There are many variations possible, but my purpose was mainly to convey that there may be very simple ways to get decent returns with low volatility that do not require you to be an expert stock picker and to constantly monitor your portfolio. I might post some further results at a later date.
    Jan 5 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Vringo Traders Overreact To Google's Flip Flop? [View article]
    Who does not write here for personal gain?

    Just as GBS said 'Ma'm, we have established what you are, we are just haggling about the price', every author on SA seeks some sort of personal reward for his effort. The difference is only in the kind of reward that the authors seek.
    Jan 4 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dogging The Dow: Examining The 'Dogs Of The Dow' Strategy [View article]
    @TonyP4

    Your humility and uniquely understated marketing style are quite charming.
    Jan 4 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dogging The Dow: Examining The 'Dogs Of The Dow' Strategy [View article]
    As someone has pointed out above, the actual return is the respectable 9.7%.

    The return would have been slightly above 12%, which is better than the return of DIA, if you had used risk parity to allocate the weights to the various components of the DOGS of the DOW.
    Jan 3 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiring From Active Portfolio Management In 2013? What Is Your Plan B? [View article]
    Equally weighted IJS/LQD/TLT/CEF. Or, alternatively, for more fun and higher returns, equally weighted AWF/MMT/BKT/CEF.
    Jan 2 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Retire With A $1,000,000 Portfolio? [View article]
    good one RS.
    Jan 1 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Retire With A $1,000,000 Portfolio? [View article]
    This portfolio has a safe withdrawal rate of 6.3% (95% probability of not running out of money in 30 years if you withdraw 6.3% in the first year and annually adjust for 3% inflation).

    If you withdraw 7% in the first year, you have 92% probability of success. The probability drops to 75% at around 9.5% initial withdrawal rate.
    Dec 31 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Struggle In 2012 [View article]
    LOW and JNJ were the only dividend champions which had consistent dividend growth and yield growth during the five years prior to 2012.

    The average return of these two - 25% - was pretty good.
    Dec 31 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy Portfolio Update [View article]
    The best total return during 2007-2012 of any of the variants of the IVY portfolios according to your web site is 37%.

    I tried a simple variant. Add three fixed income equities, so that the basket consists of VTI, EFA, VNQ, DBC, TLT, EMB, AGG and IEF.

    Sixteen different combinations of evaluation period and investment period varying from 1 month to four months with weights for the four assets (selected from the best performing assets during the evaluation period) determined using risk parity all yielded total returns during 2007-2012 considerably better than the 37% - the lowest total return was about 52% with the highest and the mean being 100% and 75% respectively.

    It's time to retire the SMA method of doing this.
    Dec 31 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal cliff negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit a major snag after Republicans demand use of the "chained CPI" method for calculating entitlement benefits - which would result in lower payments for Social Security beneficiaries. Pres. Obama backed the provision previously, but Democrats now object to including it as part of a scaled-down deal. Updated 5:51 p.m.: The Senate won't vote tonight and will reconvene at 11 a.m. tomorrow, Reid says. [View news story]
    Do you have to pay for it in the USA? That's the first time I have heard that.
    Dec 30 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal cliff negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit a major snag after Republicans demand use of the "chained CPI" method for calculating entitlement benefits - which would result in lower payments for Social Security beneficiaries. Pres. Obama backed the provision previously, but Democrats now object to including it as part of a scaled-down deal. Updated 5:51 p.m.: The Senate won't vote tonight and will reconvene at 11 a.m. tomorrow, Reid says. [View news story]
    @Macro Investor
    " How do they do it in Canada and the UK? "

    Just like in the USA.

    Missionary position mostly.
    Dec 30 09:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal cliff negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit a major snag after Republicans demand use of the "chained CPI" method for calculating entitlement benefits - which would result in lower payments for Social Security beneficiaries. Pres. Obama backed the provision previously, but Democrats now object to including it as part of a scaled-down deal. Updated 5:51 p.m.: The Senate won't vote tonight and will reconvene at 11 a.m. tomorrow, Reid says. [View news story]
    Holding 99% of the people hostage for the benefit of 1%.

    So much for the party of ideas.

    The just have one idea. Screw anyone making less than $250K.
    Dec 30 04:13 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Approaching The Fiscal Cliff As A Nash Equilibrium [View article]
    @muoio

    I don't think Obama has done anything for them to be in the current predicament.

    Why do anything if your opponent already has a rope and is in the process of hanging himself?

    Of course the current scenario could change in a heart beat, for the world events as they unfold have a way of suddenly transforming the future in ways that you can never imagine.
    Dec 30 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,346 Comments
4,176 Likes