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varan

varan
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  • An Almost Risk-Free Way For Annual Return Of 50%+ [View article]
    Not as dramatic but just switching between QLD and TLT at the beginning of every month on the basis of the prior month's relative performance
    has worked extremely well since 2007. A slightly more complicated strategy yields still higher returns: at the beginning of the month select the best two of QLD, SSO, and TLT, with the caveat that if TLT is the best one of all three just invest in TLT. Use risk parity to allocate the weights. Works with UWM also.

    All the etfs mentioned here are less that a year old and so it is hard to do any meaningful backtesting.
    Dec 15 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Convert My Dividend Growth IRA To A Roth IRA? [View article]
    At the age of 90 the difference between the two scenarios will be the least of your or anyone's problems.
    Dec 15 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Covered Calls: Finding The Sweet Spot [View article]
    Elegant.

    Just like the proof that on the average, an individual cannot beat the market over the long run.
    Dec 15 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap, Mid-Cap Or Large-Cap Stocks: Which Is A Better Investment? [View article]
    One year is too short a time for tests like this.

    Look at the data for IJR, IJH and IVV (available since 2001) and you will get more meaning results which are different from yours.
    Dec 14 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Conservative Bond CEFs For The Long Run [View article]
    MMT or BKT?
    Dec 13 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Yield? Beware The Temptations Of Emerging Markets Debt [View article]
    FNMIX/PREMX can also be use to pair up with a stock fund to generate buy and sell signals for the fund.

    At the beginning of every quarter, you buy your favorite fund or FNMIX depending on which one did better during the preceding month. Rinse and repeat at the beginning of every quarter.

    For some popular stock funds here are the results using FNMIX:

    FDVLX 1995-2012 Fund Return 9.3% Strategy Return 15.5%
    VBINX 1997-2012 Fund Return 6.6% Strategy Return 13.2%
    VTSMX 1997-2012 Fund Return 6.3% Strategy Return 11.2%
    VWELX 1995-2012 Fund Return 9.7% Strategy Return 15.3%
    FCNTX 1995-2012 Fund Return 11.0% Strategy Return 16.3%

    FNMIX by itself returned 12.8% (1995-2012) and 11.5%(1997-2012).

    So except for VTSMX, this will give you a better return than holding the fund or FNMIX. (Of course, the volatility is also decreased by this strategy.)
    Dec 12 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swensen Portfolio Supercharged With 2 Piotroski Stocks [View article]
    What kind of audience are you trying to address? Do you think that suggesting a stock with such a low trading volume (of a company with a valuation of only $20M) is appropriate for that audience?

    Just curious.
    Dec 12 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Yield? Beware The Temptations Of Emerging Markets Debt [View article]
    FNMIX and PREMX have done pretty well for some time, though no one knows the future, of course.
    Dec 12 02:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behold The Wisdom Of Dividend Stock Ownership [View article]
    Loehr's argument (like all such arguments on dividend stocks) is at worst meaningless because it is about a counterfactual: what would have happened if a dividend paying company had chosen not to be a dividend company, and utilized the money that it had on more 'productive' purposes. At best it is a nice but not very useful exercise in mental gymnastics as all arguments on counterfactuals are.

    Perhaps he knows this, but just wants to ruffle the feathers of the DGI folks. It seems that he has been somewhat successful. Perhaps he likes to shoot fish in a barrel too.
    Dec 11 11:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fund Friday: Income From Developing Asia [View article]
    AWF seems to have performed better than FAX during 1991-2011.
    Dec 7 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modern Portfolio Theory 2.0 - The Most Diversified Portfolio [View article]
    Well, there is not enough data (if you give me the monthly returns we can do better comparisons), but on the basis of annual returns the RS/risk parity method (updated quarterly as described above) seems to do OK.

    Modgliani's Risk Adjusted Returns (2006-2011):

    Risk Parity Method: 26.5%
    Your Results (As given in one of your comments below): 16.53%

    Sharpe Ratio(2006-2011):

    Risk Parity Method: 1.1
    Your Results (As given in one of the comments below): .61

    Your assertions on the relative merits of risk parity vs. maximum diversification may be valid, but the available data does not rule out the possibility that they may not be valid for this basket.
    Dec 6 04:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Keynesian Depression [View article]
    Have you read the title of the article?
    Dec 6 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Keynesian Depression [View article]
    What numbers?

    All this debate about deficits is a farce and the consequent hysteria a joke, all based on ignorance of basic monetary theory.

    And by the way, your newly found love for indifference to party labels is quite touching.
    Dec 5 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brandtastic Portfolio Cleans Up Against The Market [View article]
    This is an objective way to implement what the manager of the Fidelity Magellan used to recommend some twenty years ago.

    Thanks. This is an excellent article. No bull. No grandiosity.

    If you include international brands, perhaps UL may make it as well. Since 2007, it alone has yielded 72% total return.
    Dec 5 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cheapest Insurance For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Oops. Looked at the wrong row. My bad.

    In any case is there a way to compare the two calls (TLT 132 and UUP 23) in terms of their risk reward profiles?
    Dec 5 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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