Seeking Alpha

varan

varan
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View varan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Higher Dividends With Less Risk? Consider PowerShares S&P 500 High Dividend Portfolio ETF [View article]
    @moatfrog
    That does not make any sense. It should be enough that the person spends his time to do the research. It is OK to point out any inaccuracies in the article, if they exist, but to also require him to own the securities is a bar that he should not have to cross. Do you go only to the physicians who take the medicines that they prescribe?
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Growth Investor's Version Of 'A Christmas Carol' [View article]
    That may be the correct explanation, but then the considerably superior performance of RPV still remains a mystery.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Growth Investor's Version Of 'A Christmas Carol' [View article]
    Excellent.


    Very surprising results. Usually over longer periods hand selected stocks do better in total return than market indices. However, COL bought on 2009/3/9 would have returned 238% in comparison to VTI's total return of 256% if bought on the same date. Likewise the equally weighted portfolio of the stocks selected on 2010/3/19 (with the effect of ABT split included) would have returned 85% in comparison to VTI's return of 97% if bought on the same date. The returns of the large cap value ETFs (e.g. RPV or IVE), which probably are the appropriate ones to compare to, would have been similar, with RPV doing much better.
    Dec 20, 2014. 10:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50! [View article]
    Thanks Marketmap.

    Obviously, the re-balancing premium is a general concept, though the magnitude depends upon the volatility and correlations of the assets.

    I am surprised that bringing up a well known method to improve the returns for portfolios held for long time periods would fray some nerves like this, even though it was offered just as a possible suggestion.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50! [View article]
    Suggesting that that a past result be considered is nowhere close to calling his method wrong.

    Gee you guys are very sensitive.
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50! [View article]
    Great live test. Congratulations.

    You might want to consider the result, though, that during 1991-todate, the yearly rebalanced equal weight portfolio of this basket would have grown at a CAGR of 17.5%, whereas the buy and hold would have grown only at 14.4%. Even if you deduct the very conservative 1.6% transaction cost ($8X50 for a $25K portfolio) of re-balancing from each year's return, the CAGR for the rebalanced portfolio would have come out ahead.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allocation Or Stock Selection - An Example [View instapost]
    Yeah, you cannot fight the irrational fixations (on dividend and yield and the dividend growth rate) of those who cannot understand the simple arithmetic that if you have consistently decent total returns, withdrawal increasing at a rate consistent with the needs of the investor is not going to destroy the portfolio, even if the portfolio does not contain assets which pay dividends. Proper allocation among various types of assets does provide the returns that will enable the retiree to withdraw the needed income without having to fixate on how much dividends is being paid by which stock.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Wisdom Of Experts' Portfolio [View article]
    The list of top 3 holdings of four sector funds from Fidelity - FSCSX, FBIOX, FDFAX, FRESX - contains GOOG, MSFT, V, GILD, VRTX, CELG, KO, CVS, PG, SPG, PSA and HST. This basket has returned a robust 21% YTD. The basket of the four funds has returned 14%, which is not bad either.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy League Returns: Are They For The Rest Of Us? [View article]
    Thanks.

    That's amazing.

    During this period, the quarterly updated VTI/TLT using risk parity would have returned 9.7% CAGR with standard deviation of only 8%, whereas quarterly updated VTI/TLT using Naive Graham would have return 13.2% CAGR with standard deviation of only 10%.

    I suppose too much money is hard to invest properly.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enhancing The Permanent Portfolio With Simple Quantitative Techniques [View article]
    From VTI, GLD, TLT and SHY, just buy the top 2 every quarter on the basis of the prior quarter's return, putting 75% in the top ranked, and 25% in the other.

    2005-2014 CAGR 14% MaxDD 14% Sharpe 0.96
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allocation Or Stock Selection - An Example [View instapost]
    Agreed.

    However, very intriguingly, there is a large number of articles and readers' comments on SA which appear to suggest that fixed income is for the ignorant masses, and some creative arguments (counting Social Security and pensions as fixed income for example) are used to justify such a position. Of course for some individuals that may make sense, but as a general proposition that appears to be quite convoluted.

    I was motivated to publish this mainly because of the result that just two ETFs are enough to at least match if not to improve the performance of a portfolio of hand selected stocks backed by decades of experience.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Focused On Income Earn Higher Total Returns [View article]
    Mr. Carnvale is incorrect if he is claiming 60% total return. Here are the results for 2004-2014 on the basis of the Yahoo Finance data. The last column is the value of $1 invested on 2000/1/1.

    2000 18.75% 1.1875
    2001 -19.36% 0.9576
    2002 -23.78% 0.7299
    2003 29.17% 0.9428
    2004 11.01% 1.0466
    2005 4.15% 1.0900
    2006 19.63% 1.3040
    2007 6.99% 1.3951
    2008 -25.59% 1.0381
    2009 21.73% 1.2638
    2010 11.40% 1.4078
    2011 9.48% 1.5413
    2012 10.38% 1.7013
    2013 31.51% 2.2373
    2014 8.81% 2.4343

    So the return is indeed closer to 150%.
    Dec 14, 2014. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Focused On Income Earn Higher Total Returns [View article]
    60/40 Portfolio has been the staple of balanced investing for a long time.

    VDIGX, and SDY, inasmuch as they are DG stock funds, are the correct benchmarks for evaluating DG strategies. They existed prior to the hoopla about DG on SA.

    If I were to propound a DG strategy for total return and track it, in order to be non-delusional about about the performance of my strategy, I will always compare its performance with the simpler alternatives like SDY, VYM, etc, and use the results to fine tune my strategy. It is not a question of keeping up with some arbitrary standard, nor of bravely challenging others to come up with their own personal strategies, but of proper continuous evaluation of a new approach. That I think is the usual process of development of an investment approach. Everybody's mileage may vary.
    Dec 13, 2014. 07:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Focused On Income Earn Higher Total Returns [View article]
    It is almost axiomatic that the past performance (in terms of total return) of a group of stocks selected after the fact will be better than the performance of the market or the corresponding appropriate indexes during the same historical period.

    The performance of the hypothetical portfolio (nothing wrong with looking at it though) should be viewed in the light of the fact that the 'real time' portfolios of some of the contributors to the list of this hypothetical basket has lagged - in total return - the performance of VDIGX and SDY or even the (annually rebalnced) 60/40 VTI/TLT portfolio. I am just talking about the total return here, so no need to bring up the fact that those portfolios were constructed with different objectives.
    Dec 13, 2014. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Dividend Growth - Beating The Market With Regularity [View article]
    Actually as of November 30, 2014, VDIGX has done better in total return than the actual real time DGI portfolio on which tens of triumphant articles have been written over the years. Of course, the fallback position is that the DG portfolio is for income, but that does not invalidate the main thesis that it may be possible to get better total returns without too much effort. All this fuss over the author's simple thesis is unjustified.

    Perhaps Dale is a plant by the DG enthusiasts to create topics for them to refute, ever so weak and unconvincing as the refutations may be, and to rile up the crowd.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,904 Comments
5,036 Likes