varan

varan
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Dividends: A Key Component Of Total Return  [View article]
    If the designer and the maintainer of the portfolio does not want to compare with SPY, who am I to do so?
    Feb 3, 2016. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: A Key Component Of Total Return  [View article]
    "The S&P 500 was 15.1% off its peak back in the summer, this portfolio was just 6.4% off its all-time high."

    Does the portfolio drawdown value of 6% take into account the over $600 contributions per month? Apparently the monthly updates here http://bit.ly/rBJkXG did not, and those numbers in the monthly updates would not have been valid ones to use for comparing drawdowns.

    In any case what it does with respect to SPY does not matter, as the goal of the portfolio is different from SPY, and so neither the higher portfolio value if the same investment was made in SPY nor the presumably higher drawdown matter.
    Feb 3, 2016. 10:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do January Returns Predict Annual Returns?  [View article]
    The simplest model, a linear regression model, of annual return vs. the January return has a R^2 of only 0.15. With that caveat, the model predicts 3.5% annual return for SPY in 2016.

    Bootstrap based on 10001 runs yields quite a bit more optimistic results. http://bit.ly/1Pyp2RB

    All calculations are based 1991-2015 monthly returns (including dividends) of VFINX from Yahoo Finance.
    Feb 2, 2016. 10:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat Leveraged ETF Decay  [View article]
    I think that what you may be expecting - almost if not exact inverse relationship - is not in the least assured, not due any complex reason, but by the simple arithmetic result that the product

    (1-r1)(1-r2)(1-r3).......

    is not the inverse of

    (1+r1)(1+r2)(1+r3).......
    Feb 2, 2016. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Five': Five Plus Investor's 5 X 5 Interview With Seeking Alpha's Experts On High Yield  [View article]
    @Paul

    Here is another proverb for you: only a fool lets an anonymous commentator on the internets interrupt his activities - investment related or otherwise.
    Feb 2, 2016. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Five': Five Plus Investor's 5 X 5 Interview With Seeking Alpha's Experts On High Yield  [View article]
    No, I was not talking about Senior Notes.

    Of course everyone's mileage may vary (it seems that such disclaimers are necessary here as people see comments as someone commanding them from behind the pixels), but I see absolutely no point in going through all this if all I can get is barely market/benchmark performance.
    Feb 2, 2016. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Five': Five Plus Investor's 5 X 5 Interview With Seeking Alpha's Experts On High Yield  [View article]
    I have absolutely no idea who you are, but since you mention my name with such fondness, let me break one of my cardinal rules of life, and give you some advice: choose your gurus wisely. The grandiosely named High Alpha portfolio of one of the experts in your roundtable, introduced in late December 2015, has already lost over eight percent for the year. His yearly portfolios since he has been writing here have barely kept up with the simple ETFs or funds of the type of stocks he writes about. Of course, success and mind blowing profits are just around the corner, and just be patient, and this is a long game, and all that, as all these gurus say.
    Feb 2, 2016. 10:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat Leveraged ETF Decay  [View article]
    From July 2007 thru June 2009, I get the following:

    IYF -60.7%
    Inverese IYF 25.2%

    Annual Returns IYF
    2007 -18.06%
    2008 -50.29%
    2009 16.86%
    CAGR -21.9%

    Annual Returns Inverse IYF
    2007 18.73%
    2008 31.66%
    2009 -38.72%

    CAGR -1.42%
    Feb 1, 2016. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Recession-Proof Stocks To Buy In 2016  [View article]
    Sorry, meant to say that AZO and ROST were two of the few large retailers whose stocks returned a profit in 2008.
    Jan 31, 2016. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Recession-Proof Stocks To Buy In 2016  [View article]
    For someone living in California it is easy to conclude that water is a very scarce resource. Typically stocks of water utilities are expected to be less volatile.

    I selected the nine US Water utilities with the largest market capitalization from here http://tinyurl.com/htg.... The basket had a loss of only 3.15% in 2008, and CAGR of 10.2% during 2000-2015, better than the return (during 2000-2015) of even BRK-A (8.2%) and of course SPY (4%).

    AZO and ROST were two of the few large retailers that made a profit in 2008.
    Jan 31, 2016. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR  [View instapost]
    Yes, it is TLT.

    Even the last of the guys on CNBC here http://tinyurl.com/jmg... agrees. Good or bad, I don't know.
    Jan 31, 2016. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Recession Is On My Mind  [View article]
    There is no good quantitative and predictive data-based model of recession as the number of recessions that have been recorded since around the fifties is very low.

    So it is a ripe area for anyone to pontificate on by looking at a subset of the various indicators. Someone will be proved right at some time, and wrong at the others. There is no predictive value in such prognostications.
    Jan 31, 2016. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Dividend Aristocrats - Archer Daniels Midland Vs. Hormel Foods  [View article]
    In the near short term future, the results may be different, for long term holding there appears to be no contest http://tinyurl.com/jm3... unless there is some radical transformation of any of the two.
    Jan 30, 2016. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Recession-Proof Stocks To Buy In 2016  [View article]
    Wow! Since the close of market on Jan 27, the day of my comment above, the water companies portfolio with AZO and ROST has shot up by 6.4%.

    YTD Return 7.9%, with positive return for each and every stock in the portfolio.
    Jan 30, 2016. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A low drawdown strategy for sector rotation for Fidelity Select Funds  [View instapost]
    I think most of the sector funds of various families are based on SP sector indices, differing to varying degrees from the baseline.

    XLP (vs. FDFAX) and FSRPX outperformance (vs. XRT) is quite significant, as shown in the two plots above.

    As a practical consequence, our Jan 8 selection FDFAX has returned 2.97% vs. the 3.55% of XLP. But we are ahead of SPY (0.94%). However, all too soon for any conclusive statement. (or may be not. to follow some guy on SA with eye catching headlines, we have returned 215% more than SPY!)
    Jan 29, 2016. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,287 Comments
8,816 Likes