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varan

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  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    they come from the Central Bureau of Dividend Investing.

    Another DGI article has the DGI crowd brimming with infinite celebration. Turns out the whole premise was based on misunderstanding. Initially the author thought the dividend paying stocks return 23% annually since 1972. Now it has been lowered to 10%, which is almost the same as the CAGR of SP500 with dividends. But the celebration continues. Now the reason is that the dividends 'threw off' income, as if the income came separately.

    One more piece of evidence that the whole DGI thing may be based on some misunderstanding of data, logic or arithmetic.
    Aug 13 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Really? WAY MORE value?

    the total return is almost the same. so bringing up higher income is counting the same return twice.
    Aug 13 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    @dnorm

    Perhaps the author's excessive zeal is a result of a misunderstanding, as what he has stated in a comment (Chart 3 starts with $1) leads to a CAGR of 23% during the last 40 years for dividend paying stocks, whereas the actual CAGR is close to 10% (the Chart actually starts with $100), nearly the same as the CAGR of SP500 with dividends re-invested.
    Aug 13 01:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    "that brings the avg annual to 10.03%/year."

    Then what is the hoopla about? SP500 with dividends reinvested has returned almost the same CAGR ~9.9% since 1972.
    Aug 13 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    @Mike thomas

    Why do you need math?

    Just buy dividend stocks.

    If a thousand people put $50K in dividend stocks, they will be able to buy a few countries in 50 years. What is not to like?
    Aug 12 08:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    @DD

    No I am going for dividend stocks that provide 23% annual returns. Why should I take my chances with anything else? I am not a gambler, of course.
    Aug 12 08:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Hey WSD, just put in $50K in dividend stocks and go to sleep. You will have $1.5B in 50 years. What's not to like?

    Some people are always so negative.

    I for one am going to recommend to all my friends and family to immediately dissolve their holding, and invest in dividend stocks to get 23% return in the long run. Nothing to dislike there.
    Aug 12 08:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    That's awesome.

    I also want to get 23% annual returns. Will put in $50000 in my grand daughter's account, and by the time she is 51, she will have $1.5B - that is 1.5 Billion with a B. She can live it up during the working years, and really live it up during retirement.

    Where do I sign up?
    Aug 12 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    Ridiculousness continues unabated.

    Not worth any argument.
    Aug 12 10:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    I haven't seen or done an analysis, but if you use relative strength with a basket of very large number of funds, the probability of false discovery during backtesting might increase. This is speculation on my part, of course. Even if it is correct, no one knows how large large is in that context. Clearly, since it is working well for extermebroker, the threshold is perhaps much higher than 40.
    Aug 11 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    @boom

    I will leave the conversation at that. The counterexamples to your assessment have been legion, but I will not haggle over the matter, especially since your tone is so much different from that of many others.
    Aug 10 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    @boom: " that there are growth/safety portfolios that will beat DG portfolios in performance."

    You are the first DGI on this platform who has made this assertion without any qualifications or reservations.

    Most of the others always bring up side issues to obfuscate and confuse when this is mentioned. Some get offended to the extreme. That's why the stupid and mindless debates such as the one in this thread continue unabated to no end.
    Aug 10 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    @Boom
    RFG Nov thru Apr, IEF rest of the year

    Yeap. Beats the performance of all of the public DG portfolios that are written about with great fanfare on SA. I would choose RFV instead though.

    Even for the period 1992-todate, the almost equivalent FDVLX/VFITX handily beats even the BRK-A with almost one third the loss in 2008, and generally much lower volatility.

    It is the many examples such as this that make me skeptical of all the other complicated stock-picking strategies that people love to talk about on SA.
    Aug 10 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    You can call it a dividend instead of commission. That way some money will appear in your account too. Win-win for both of us. I will be happy to have been wrong about dividends all this time.
    Aug 9 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    @CP:I have saved a copy of this particular sub-thread for my files.

    Do I get a commission for starting the whole thing?

    By the way, this person's approach and viewpoint are not unique. Lots and lots of DGI feel (or at least write) the same way. But on a platform if some author can write with a straight face that computation of standard deviation of the time series of returns is immoral, anything goes.

    That's why I have accumulated 3400 comments. That is scary indeed.
    Aug 9 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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