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varan

varan
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  • S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value? [View article]
    "The holdings in my portfolio not only crushed SPY and RSP in income over the last 10 years, but as a group, they beat in total return as well."

    I don't know the exact amount and timing of the deposits in your portfolio, but if one assumes that it started with $42205 in 2010 and $626 was deposited every month - as I gather from a cursory reading of your blogs - then the total return of RSP was much higher, $153K vs. your portfolio's $140K at the end of 2/2015, and SPY was higher too, $145K.

    Perhaps you can correct this with the exact deposit schedule.

    It is weird to say that it 'crushed' in income if the other asset provided higher total return, as income is not separate and apart from the total return. It may make someone feel good, but is perhaps beside the point if total return is being compared.
    Mar 16, 2015. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value? [View article]
    The particular mix was neither the point of my comment nor a recommendation. Just an illustration that properly allocated portfolio would have done just fine without the need to worry about yield and dividend and dividend growth rates and PE ratio and the normal P/E ratio and all that. Different allocations will work for different assumptions about the future.
    Mar 16, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Aristocrats: Create Your Own Portfolio Or Invest In NOBL? (Part 2) [View article]
    Unrelenting speculation about what should and should not be done without any concrete data or calculations. Amazing way to invest.
    Mar 16, 2015. 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value? [View article]
    Actually the year 2000 was the worst year to retire with SPY alone and no cash cushion (although I do not think that anyone would put all the retirement funds in SPY).

    The calculation is as follows: you withdraw 4% of the starting value of the portfolio at the end of the first year of your retirement . In subsequent years, you increase the dollar amount of the withdrawal made at the end of the year by 4% over the prior year's withdrawal.

    The person who retired in 2000 with that scenario starting with $1M would have only $350K at the end of 2014, whereas the person who retired in 2008 would have recovered and would have $1.15M.

    Of course the problem is easily solved by proper allocation. For example, if the funds were allocated as 30% SPY, 30% MDY, 40% VUSTX, the person retiring in 2000 would have $1.78M at the end of 2014, and the 2008 retiree would have $1.44M. Not at all disastrous. Actually pretty good.
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value? [View article]
    @622...

    Do not waste your time.

    You are not going to convince anyone.

    There is no need to do that anyway. Everyone obviously invests according to his/her own understanding of finance and arithmetic.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market Using Tactical Asset Rotation [View article]
    Using adjusted close data from Yahoo:

    MDY Total return for the period 9/30/2014-12/31/1014 6.31%
    TLT Total return for the period 9/30/2014-12/31/1014 9.31%

    Not even close.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market Using Tactical Asset Rotation [View article]
    Start with the classical paired switching basket of two, VTI (or SPY) and TLT (2003-2010 CAGR for monthly switching for VTI and TLT: 14.7%) , and keep on adding the ETFs that are nominally positively correlated with the market that improve the performance.
    Mar 15, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Risk Of High Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    That's the issue. You cannot just demand that the article be just transparent enough so it satisfies your particular needs. My standard of a paper with sufficient technical content may be different from yours. Why should the author satisfy your standard and not mine?
    Mar 15, 2015. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market Using Tactical Asset Rotation [View article]
    just add.
    Mar 15, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market Using Tactical Asset Rotation [View article]
    By the way, adding QQQ improves the performance of this strategy. This result is similar to what one obtains with the GMR strategy to which this is very much alike.
    Mar 15, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Risk Of High Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    @Craig

    I think that if you want the SA articles to meet the standard of academic journals, every article that advocates a strategy for picking stocks must include the value of Hal White's Reality Check p-value for the strategy so that one may accurately assess the value of the implementing the strategy for out of sample data. More stringently, the articles must prove that they have not overfit the data in the sense of http://bit.ly/1FkAR87 .

    In light of the above: this is a standard that SA articles NEVER meet.

    I stand by my statement that it is very hypocritical for any author to hold the other authors to higher standards than he himself does not meet.
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Risk Of High Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    This is an old trick used by many.

    Disseminate any information that you please without much thought, but if someone tries to contradict your position or even if someone's statements can be even remotely construed as contradicting your positions, hold them to a much higher, impossible standards.
    Mar 14, 2015. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Advice From Bill Bernstein [View article]
    How was he being disrespectful?

    He just expressed his skepticism about the future for DGI. That's not a personal domain for anyone.

    I did not know that the commentators are not supposed to say such things, as it will mean personal disrespect to an author - whose name was not even mentioned.

    Anyone with such thin skin should stay away from public forums.
    Mar 14, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value? [View article]
    That's based on a basic misunderstanding of simple arithmetic that you are constantly expounding.
    Mar 14, 2015. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value? [View article]
    Hey Chowder if you are looking for dividend agnostic strategies to do better than your portfolio you are not looking hard enough.

    Your Portfolio at the end of 2/2015 $140K
    SPY with the same deposit schedule on 2/28/2015: $145.8K
    MDY with the same deposit schedule on 2/28/2015: $151.5K

    And this one - $157K

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    You can easily beat the market and your own portfolio with the last one.
    Mar 14, 2015. 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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