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varan

varan
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  • 5 Stocks For A Complete Retirement Plan [View article]
    He forgot to add ZNGA. What's not to like about a company that makes money by selling virtual farm implements? Definitely better than selling fake supplements to achieve weight loss as HLF does.
    Aug 7 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    @ikkyu
    thanks a lot.
    Aug 6 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    Of course. There are multiple ways to invest successfully. A method like this provides one of many systematic approaches that is easy to implement.
    Aug 6 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Pocket - LEAPS For A Touchdown [View article]
    Right now the GILD leaps provide the best opportunity.
    Aug 5 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joel Greenblatt's Forgotten Original Magic Formula [View article]
    That's awesome.

    Everyone should invest $10000 just once at the beginning of his career, at the end of which, in 30 years, he/she would have a cool $370M as a result of the 42% annual growth. This is almost as good as DGI, which sets up all the future generations for a good life paid for by the ever growing dividend income stream.
    Aug 5 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Share Price Recover After Dividends Paid Out On The Ex-Date? Part 2: A Case Study With Exxon Mobil [View article]
    @dnorm

    Even if you adopt the viewpoint in total, that there are facts and there are opinions and all opinions stink, in that alternate universe most of the articles on SA, especially the ones that are based on biography transparently and dishonestly disguised as argument, would be totally useless as they are just 'opinions'.
    Aug 4 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Share Price Recover After Dividends Paid Out On The Ex-Date? Part 2: A Case Study With Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Lots of semantic obfuscation/confusion here.

    Clearly, as soon as a company pays out its dividend, its book value (as defined, e.g. here http://bit.ly/14guEbn, which is the standard definition ) decreases by an equal amount inasmuch as the cash holding of a company is a part of its assets. Any disagreement with this is absurd.

    In light of the above, to claim that the price is not affected by the payment of dividends is equivalent to claiming that the book value does not have any relationship with the price. Obviously, that too is completely absurd. It does not matter whether one can or cannot actually compute the price in the counterfactual universe wherein the dividends are not paid.

    Of course people believe in all sorts of absurd propositions, including the assumption of creation of wealth out of thin air just by the act of the payment of dividends, and they have every right to do so.
    Aug 4 07:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Share Price Recover After Dividends Paid Out On The Ex-Date? Part 2: A Case Study With Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Who knew that the DGI folks are so sensitive too. They just reported a very innocuous comment of mine regarding the perennial question that someone just keeps asking.
    Aug 3 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Share Price Recover After Dividends Paid Out On The Ex-Date? Part 2: A Case Study With Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Excellent analysis.

    Ignore the critiques.
    Aug 3 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Share Price Recover After Dividends Paid Out On The Ex-Date? Part 2: A Case Study With Exxon Mobil [View article]
    @Nadel

    Haha! Complaining about incivility? That's too rich.

    Looks like lack of self-awareness also comes with DGI.
    Aug 3 01:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    That is paired-switching. For 1991-2014 you get a CAGR of 12.7% for FUSEX( Fidelity does have a sense of humor)/VUSTX. The best pair is FDVLX/VUSTX: if you update quarterly based on just prior month's returns you get 16.4% for 1991-2014. The GMR, in my nomenclature, is polygamously paired switching.

    .
    Aug 3 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    I have not tried the SMA, but adding SHY degrades the performance a bit: CAGR decreases by about 2%, and the maximum drawdown increases by about 3%, and the Sharpe decreases by 0.08. But even then it may be a good addition as a circuit breaker.
    Aug 2 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    It's three calendar months. So for January: last trading day of prior year's September thru last trading day of the prior December, and then increment both the months by a month for subsequent months. My guess would be that using 63 days should work as well. If there is a substantial difference, I will withdraw this whole strategy as that would imply the strategy to be very brittle.

    The circuit breaker is a good idea, but I have not implemented that yet, and therefore not tested it.
    Aug 2 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use The CAPE Ratio To Double The Return Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    Great post, despite the fact that just one year of data does not justify the definitiveness of the conclusion implied by the title.

    With regard to RPV, it appears that its performance for the last ten months has been the same as that of the larger basket that you mention.
    Aug 2 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    That - shorting EDZ when EEM is the ETF to be invested in - may well work. But I have not tried it.
    Aug 2 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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