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varan

varan
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  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    The comparison is for the period beginning at the time of inception of the DG portfolio.

    Of course, if you don't do any calculations, and ignore the actual numbers, DG portfolio beat everything by every metric. Because it must. That's the DG creed.
    Mar 9, 2015. 06:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Would Buy Ensco Now [View article]
    @WSD

    Hilarious.
    Mar 8, 2015. 11:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    The comments in this article to the author's ever so slight intimations of some foreseeable problems very abundantly prove my thesis.
    Mar 8, 2015. 01:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    @TF

    Triumphalism defined:

    http://bit.ly/1EFmevO

    "Disproportionate or unreasonable celebration of the perceived successes and virtues of a given group, religion, or ideology relative to those of others."

    I have not read a single DGI article on SA, and the threads of comments of the followers therein, which do not leave any new reader with the impression that the author as well as the followers have found the holy grail.

    Mindset: Surely you know what that is, having read the recent article on SA about the DGI mindset.
    Mar 8, 2015. 12:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    "Confidence is the feeling you have before you fully understand a situation."

    You have beautifully summarized the real meaning of the triumphalist mindset of the DG proponents and some of their followers.
    Mar 7, 2015. 05:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    Of course, if the withdrawal schedule is not consistent with the characteristics of the portfolio and is too optimistic, failure will be the outcome.

    Here is the simplest example: anyone who retired in any year after 1987, put his portfolio in yearly rebalanced 60% VFINX, 40% VUSTX, withdrew 4% of the portfolio the first year, and increased the beginning of the year withdrawal amount by 4% every year, would have more money now that he started with. This of of course is not the best example, but suggests that very simple alternatives do indeed exist. No need to be constantly looking for who cut the dividend, who did not increase the dividends, and who is going the way of Kodak.
    Mar 7, 2015. 04:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    No the portfolio value will of course be at the whim of the market, but withdrawal will not be - say first year withdrawal of 5%, with the dollar amount of annual withdrawals increasing at 4%. If the portfolio is well designed, its value will of course fluctuate, but that the amount withdrawn is by my design, not of anyone else.
    Mar 7, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    @drftr

    My goal is to build a portfolio that has good total return with volatility that I can accept. If I can do that - and I think that there are quite a few very good alternative to build upon - the income can be generated very easily by means of a withdrawal schedule conforming to the characteristics of the portfolio. I do not buy the notion that a selling a part of the (appreciated) assets to generate income is in any way inferior to living on dividends which, in the final analysis, is inconsistent with the philosophy of DIY investing, as the income that the retiree gets with dividends is subject to the whims of the officers of the companies whose stock he owns.
    Mar 7, 2015. 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    One does not need all this verbose analysis to decide that DGI is only for those who love to line up and add their monthly dividends on a piece of paper and calculate the month to month gain in the income that might have been received.

    Some simple facts suffice:

    The total return of a 'real time' DGI portfolio since June 1, 2008: 77%
    http://bit.ly/1AgJdrl

    Total return of SDY since June 1, 2008: 96% (Dividend Aristocrats)
    Total return of IJK: 90% (Mid cap)
    Totak return of IJT: 100% (Small cap)
    Total return of SPY: 73%

    I am singling out this portfolio for no other reason than the fact that this is the only one tracked on SA that has seen at least a part of 2008.

    Surprisingly, some other DG portfolios I have looked at do not perform better than simple alternatives either.

    So why should someone bother if his/her goal is total return like most people?
    Mar 7, 2015. 01:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    But then did you hold them? Did you write about the portfolio on SA? If you did not buy them in 1995, or did not write about them on SA, your conclusions are worthless.
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    great. just wanted to goad you to reply.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    No, since every stock that you buy in DGI has to have a story that you believe in, there is no need to have a crystal ball. If you believe in the story, the dividends growing at a rate faster than inflation will follow.

    I am more convinced now that you are really not a DGI.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    Ian
    But his three examples - 47% loss, 53% loss, defunct - are indeed something to behold. I am sure that they were just a small part of your holdings, but to a neutral third party observer that was a good punch from him!
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:05 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    You misunderstand DGI completely. To do DGI correctly, you have to buy good stocks that will always meet your goals. And since they meet your goals, the question of risk does not arise. You are applying a definition of risk that is not applicable to DGI. Who are you to tell others that their style is risky if it meets their goals?

    Obviously you claim to be, but you are not, a DG investor.
    Mar 6, 2015. 12:21 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's A World Of Difference Between Johnson & Johnson And Procter & Gamble [View article]
    I was not referring to you though. I rarely find your articles dogmatic in the least. They are always quite educational.
    Mar 5, 2015. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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