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varan

varan
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  • 1993's '100 Best Stocks' Revisited: Size Matters [View article]
    Useful analysis. Thanks.

    For me the takeaway is that since a properly allocated portfolio of a handful of mutual funds would have replicated the return of the 100 best stocks during this time, all the effort involved in picking the best is not worth the effort. One more piece of evidence for the advisability of passive investing.

    So in the long term (20 years) as well as in the relatively short term (5 years) the passive investing seems to win out.
    Apr 30, 2014. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    No you have not given any evidence that is worth anything apart from the 19/1 you keep on repeating, and some version of the value factor.

    You keep on suggesting that people read some other author on SA, and you give no evidence as to whether following that author's 'beliefs' will lead to better returns.
    Apr 29, 2014. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    Number of followers as a metric! That's all you got?

    Wow!

    Good luck with your investments. Follow the herd.
    Apr 29, 2014. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    Oh now you are talking about deciles and not individual stocks selected on the basis of squiggly lines moving around.

    Congratulations. You are slowly beginning to understand what Larry is saying.
    Apr 29, 2014. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    You are confused and all over the place. Show me the evidence that the individual that you want everyone to study and follow has a strategy that produces market beating returns. Blanket assertions do not qualify as evidence. The onus of proof is on you, since you are making the claim.
    Apr 29, 2014. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    In a world where the beginning and the end of everything are fancy multi-colored charts with squiggly lines trying to find their way to places unknown anything is possible. You have to believe. You just gotta believe.
    Apr 29, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    There is no systematically accumulated evidence that anyone, who follows the individual that you recommend for people to follow, does better than those investing in ETFs and mutual funds. He himself does not provide any. What you are suggesting is as much of a crapshoot as investing in ETFs - perhaps more, since buying individual stocks entails a lot of idiosyncratic risk.

    Of course this does not mean that there is no anecdotal evidence that contradicts my assertion for a handful of individuals for relatively short periods of time.

    Hope that helps.
    Apr 29, 2014. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    Re. the use of moving averages (in the Faber's paper), Fama's quote is interesting:

    “Market Timing with Moving Averages: An ancient tale with no empirical support”
    Apr 29, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The Future Is Now [View article]
    I liken him to Hiroo Onada (http://bit.ly/HL3RvT )- admirably loyal to his beliefs - but with a complete lack of intellectual capacity to adapt to reality.
    Apr 29, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The Future Is Now [View article]
    He sounds like a scold telling the investors not to pay attention to the naked dancing lady that is the market, as she is certainly going to hell.
    Apr 29, 2014. 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Investing: Low Risk, High Return: Is It Really Possible? [View article]
    The simplest way to minimize risk is to use proper asset allocation. A large number of the people who suffered immensely in the devastation of 2008 did so mostly because their portfolios were not properly diversified among negatively correlated (or uncorrelated) assets. Even if they had followed the well worn advice of 60/40 stocks/bonds, 2008 would not have been that much of an issue.

    It is interesting to see that mostly the lesson on allocation has not been learned , and many authors on SA continue to peddle the mantra that it is enough to buy good stocks. That's almost circular, because if your portfolio of 'good stocks' does not perform well in a downturn, it can always be claimed that your stocks were not 'good'.
    Apr 28, 2014. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    Warren Buffet is obviously a rich man, and has done very well in the stock market, and all of us would wish to be like him.

    But his statements on the subject need not necessarily be assumed to be authoritative and the last word on the subject. A cursory comparison of the return of BRK-A with the performance of SPY, VTI, IJJ or IJS during the last ten years would tend to support this viewpoint.
    Apr 26, 2014. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    More nonsense.
    Apr 26, 2014. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4 [View article]
    All empirical data that have seen on SA suggests that active stock picking at best matches the performance of the market over a sufficiently long time scale.

    Perhaps the people who are actually able to beat the market over extended time periods do not bother to tell us about their results on a public forum like SA.
    Apr 25, 2014. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Style Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    What time scale are you talking about? Just this year or over the next five to ten years? It would seem to me that over the long term the other results that contradict yours would hold.
    Apr 25, 2014. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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