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varan

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  • The Elephant In The Room For Passive Asset Allocation Strategies [View article]
    To use tactical allocation correctly you have to start with a basket of assets whose returns are negatively correlated. If you have that, almost any periodic strategy for reallocation on the basis of relative strength will do better than most other methods.
    Apr 27 08:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is A Good Investment? [View article]
    Long time ago, some misguided soul (of course he was British) described a ubiquitous human activity that is much sought thus: 'the pleasure is momentary, the position ridiculous, and the expense damnable'. The second one applies to this article as well.
    Apr 27 01:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Swensen's 6 ETF Portfolio [View article]
    Any static static allocation will ultimately prove to be suboptimal or even much farther away from optimal. You have to use methods that allow you to update your allocation on the basis of the recent behavior of the asset returns.

    In any case I think that you do not do much service to your credibility by showing the weights to the second decimal place. Where does 2.78% for TIP come from? No method can be that accurate.
    Apr 27 12:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Not Selling In May And Going Away [View article]
    You may not want to go away in May, but it may not be that bad an idea.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 26 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner lashes out at Mitt Romney's comments that he will improve U.S. trade relations with China by declaring the emerging giant a currency manipulator: "By just calling them a name? Like you can solve problems in the world, a very complicated world we live in, by calling people names?"  [View news story]
    Romney will take massive loans, fire Americans, and declare without any foundation that country is prosperous again, just as he did with all the companies that he bought with money from his wealthy patrons.

    We all know what happened last time a Harvard MBA was the President. This time it will be worse, for Romney is the ultimate corporate creature, without an iota of humanity and without any soul.
    Apr 25 11:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Style Boxes And The Efficient Frontier [View article]
    Sorry, all the numbers above are for 2001-2011.
    Apr 23 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Style Boxes And The Efficient Frontier [View article]
    The seemingly similar portfolio of IVV, IVE, IJJ, IJS, and IWN with the same weights does not appear to be that attractive: its CAGR during 2011 is 5.8%, the Sharpe Ratio is only .05, and the three factor alpha is actually negative, -0.81%.
    Apr 23 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are Not Doomed: Preparing For Retirement [View article]
    http://bit.ly/I5COKV

    Page 13 of this article seems to suggest that the participation in SS is mandatory. That is at variance with your assertion. May be I am missing something.
    Apr 23 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accompanying Laffer's and Moore's thesis about taxes and migration in the WSJ is an interview with demographer Joel Kotkin about California, which has lost nearly 4M people in 20 years. Kotkin blames high taxes, real-estate prices - due to restrictions - and energy costs, due to green policies that also preclude the development of 25B barrels of shale oil.  [View news story]
    Ha!

    If a statement like 'its biggest product is red tape' is not to serve a political agenda then I don't know what is.

    Who cares if the net population growth is due to immigrants from other countries or other states.

    There are Democrats, and then there are Fox News Democrats.
    Apr 22 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accompanying Laffer's and Moore's thesis about taxes and migration in the WSJ is an interview with demographer Joel Kotkin about California, which has lost nearly 4M people in 20 years. Kotkin blames high taxes, real-estate prices - due to restrictions - and energy costs, due to green policies that also preclude the development of 25B barrels of shale oil.  [View news story]
    We have enough people here. San Diego is developing in every nook and corner. New subdivisions have already started building up. Housing prices dropped no more than 15 to 20% from the peak. Hardworking immigrants (legal or not) keep the economy humming in construction, wireless, biotech, high tech, and defense. If you have technical skills you can get a good job in a few months.

    I should forgive Mr. Laffer for teaching asinine economic theories to our leaders in the eighties, now that he is atoning for his sins by making sure that no more people come here to crowd our beaches and mountains and deserts.
    Apr 22 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are Not Doomed: Preparing For Retirement [View article]
    @rich

    Nice to see someone call him on this. I stopped at 'hoodrats', which, by any objective standards, does not belong in civilized discourse.
    Apr 21 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
    More than the header, we should also have a link to the historical performance of the author's previous picks.

    The author's record has been mixed at best.

    If you had invested in all his recommendations since December 2009, you probably would have been worse off than just buying SPY at that time. There have been a few notable winners, like JVA, which has more than doubled, and the recent NCT which has gained over 12% in a short time, but correspondingly there were some doozies like ASTI and ONAVQ.PK which have lost more than 80%. Perhaps he did not mean for people to keep these losers all the way to the bottom, and so I hope I am not being unfair to him.
    Apr 21 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PDP: Leading The Strategy Indexing Revolution? [View article]
    PDP has done quite well during 2009-2012, but it appears that the strategy used by it does not have any safety mechanism to avoid the disasters like 2008. If you are updating the portfolio every quarter, you might as well use some mechanism to avoid impending free fall if such is indicated by some signals.
    Apr 21 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are Not Doomed: Preparing For Retirement [View article]
    What world do these anti-SS people live in?

    SS is slavery? That's what they seem to be saying.

    Amazing.
    Apr 21 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are Not Doomed: Preparing For Retirement [View article]
    Wow! The speed with which you change the subject from performance of the stock market to creation of wealth to transfer of wealth via government is a sight to behold. Good luck with investing with this type of logical prowess.
    Apr 20 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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