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Pts117

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  • Shame On You, Apple [View article]
    George - no other developed country taxes global profits.

    Can you define a "fair share" that the US government should tax a US company on a product that is developed, produced, managed, and sold in a foreign country??? Let's pick Switzerland just for fun???
    May 1 04:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Dividend Growth Investor's Dream? [View article]
    davel -

    good point. i agree that thech companies live in a fast paced world where coke does not... this is buffetology 101, but in today's market this uncertainty is priced in. CSCO, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, among others trade at very reasonable PEs, have loads of cash, and have long track records of success. buying Apple at a 7 PE excl cash has to be providing a fair return expectation vs coke at about 23 PE with loads of debt
    May 1 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Becoming Irrelevant [View article]
    First, Phablets making up 70% of the market will never materialize, but I would love to know the assumptions behind that statistic. To assume that 70% of people (including women with small hands and guys who do not carry a purse) want to use a massive phone is quite a stretch.

    Secondly, even if we assume this actually happens - Apple will release a phablet sooner rather than later. If you listen to the Q2 earnings call it is fairly obvious based on TC's choice of words.

    Third, even if we assume that this actually happens AND Apple refuses to make one (while watching 70% of their phone business fall apart), they would still compete in the laptop market, 30% of the smart phone market, the tablet market, services/software market, TV market, and other new markets which we do not know about yet. Saying that "Apple is becoming irrelevant" because they did not launch a phablet is crazy.
    Apr 30 08:02 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Becoming Irrelevant [View article]
    Chabig -

    Great points! IMO this article is way off the reservation...

    TC has repeatedly said that they do not want to compromise quality to release a larger phone - display, battery, etc... would have to be compromised.

    ...or Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows XP, etc... Yea, nobody EVER does that... and when they do, it NEVER works!
    Apr 30 06:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Becoming Irrelevant [View article]
    How can you come to the conclusion that since apple has not released the "phablet" yet, they are becoming irrelevant? This is either a really poor attempt at sarcasm that I am not picking up on or a really poor attempt at drawing a conclusion.

    Yup, the delayed launch of a phablet is going to sink the ship because 12% of the market wants one and the other 88% are so sad for those 12% that they will no longer buy the best phones, tablets, and ecosystem in the world in protest... Seems like a reasonable conclusion!
    Apr 30 06:06 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A $467 Price Floor Set By Share Repurchase Plan And Dividend Hike [View article]
    EA - really good stuff. This is plus/minus the exact math I have been doing for months (share repurchas changes the math a bit but less than you'd think).

    The shares are priced for a halving of net margins and zero revenue growth and their two main products are the best offerings in the fastest growing consumer electronics markets.

    Maybe I'll be proven to be wrong, but I'd take a long bet on this story any day.
    Apr 29 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Shareholder Program: The Day The Music Died [View article]
    Suggesting that a buyback signals that apple is out of ideas is flat out wrong - it signals the exact opposite. If they were out of ideas, the cash would be burning a hole in their pocket because they would be buying anything and everything to change course - they would certainly not be buying their own shares and investing in a company that is out of ideas. Buying back their shares signals that they have plenty of good things in the works and more than enough capital to execute on these opportunities. A textbook symptom of floundering around with no good ideas is cereal acquisitions, not quintupling down on their current pipeline.
    Apr 28 08:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: How To Admit You're Out Of Ideas [View article]
    Current cash balance 145B
    Current market cap 375B
    Current mkt cap less cash 230B

    Conservative assumption = 90B left to return is equal to FCF 2013 H2-2015

    If the share price stays where it is, this would drive the PE down to around 7 INCLUDING CASH and the market cap would be around 170B excluding cash.

    They could compete at the low price range, shoot for 10% net margins, and easily be worth well over 170B ex cash given their clearly superior competative position.
    Apr 24 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: How To Admit You're Out Of Ideas [View article]
    bob - spot on exposing logical errors... book value is not the only measure of "undervalue!"
    Apr 24 11:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Q2 Earnings Make It A Fist-Pounding Buy [View article]
    This earnings release was great news in pretty much all areas - even margin contraction. It is not normally good for margins to shrink, but it shows that they are reacting appropriately to the competative landscape and are still making money hand over fist. The shares are priced for net margins to be halved with little sales growth so if they can make up margin contraction with volume this is a good thing.

    One thing that stood out to me on the call was the repetition of the statement "this is not missed" when referring to low priced phones. Tim also stated that the chinese market uniquely has a large number of customers entering the market. he didn't say, though that to get these new customers in china they need a competatively priced phone but he did say that the iPhone 4 was priced more competatively to capture share. read between the lines and it would not surprise me if the launch a lower priced phone in china with China mobile in the fall.
    Apr 24 02:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reflections On The Current State Of Apple [View article]
    Agree 100% - this concept that shorts are crushing the shares or that the big bad hesge fund boogie man is the source of the collapse is unfounded. Sentiment is the cause, and sentiment is driven by results - this is why April 23 is a critical date for Apple. Show results and the shares will pop... Show flattening and decline and the shares will flatten or decline.
    Apr 12 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reflections On The Current State Of Apple [View article]
    It's not a purse, it's a european carry-all.
    Apr 11 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Finally Time To Buy? [View article]
    "Um, margins have contracted."

    ...and Apple makes 50B in FCF, sets record sales numbers, and is still earning $44 per share in spite of this... You, sir, have proven my point!
    Apr 2 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Finally Time To Buy? [View article]
    Technical becomes irrelevant on April 23... Then it becomes relevant for three months until it becomes irrelevant in late July... Etc... Etc...
    Apr 1 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Finally Time To Buy? [View article]
    That's all i keep hearing from Apple haters... Wait till... Wait till...

    Wait till margins contract...
    Wait till Samsung renders their products obsolete...
    Wait till the BBRY Z10 is out...
    Wait till Droid takes all of heir market share...
    Wait till the impact of Steve Jobs' death hits the innovative machine...
    Wait till Microsoft puts out the Surface tablet...
    Wait till the iPhone, iPad, and iOS are stale...

    Wait till... Wait till... Still waiting...
    Apr 1 08:57 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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