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snakyjake

snakyjake
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  • Another Look at Consumer Spending [View article]
    Here's what I'm seeing from some friends that have defaulted on their mortgage (or bankruptcy). They now live in an apartment or family, no longer have that huge mortgage payment. The bank is the cobbler for a few months that is sitting with the debt. Then the bank transfers the default to the following: another bank, chopped up in tiny pieces and resold, TARP/government assistance, or the bank itself defaults and is taken over by the FDIC. Just look at how many more banks have been closed or taken over by the FDIC in the past months. Just look at the government debt. That's where this bubble is going.

    It is just a big bubble, or transfer of debt (not wealth), and the government is holding the hot potato. The government is taking the debt/liability burden, while everyone else now enjoys more spendable income or debt relief.

    Jake
    Apr 24 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Jobless Report Shows Declines in Both Initial and Continuing Claims [View article]
    Where's the perspective?

    If I'm reading all the news and headlines correctly, some people are positive because less people are losing their job than the previous month. But 456,000 still lost their jobs. And those people don't see this as a scary number?

    That's like saying everyone in the city of Sacramento, CA (pop. 463,794) lost their job, but that is better than everyone in Baltimore, MD (pop. 636,919) losing their job. Total unemployed is almost twice the population of Los Angeles, CA (pop. 3,833,995), and approaching the population of New York, NY (pop. 8,363,710).

    Why am I not seeing the positive in these numbers?

    Jake
    Apr 23 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims Move Back Down [View article]
    Where's the perspective?

    If I'm reading all the news and headlines correctly, some people are positive because less people are losing their job than the previous month. But 456,000 still lost their jobs. And those people don't see this as a scary number?

    That's like saying everyone in the city of Sacramento, CA (pop. 463,794) lost their job, but that is better than everyone in Baltimore, MD (pop. 636,919) losing their job. Total unemployed is almost twice the population of Los Angeles, CA (pop. 3,833,995), and approaching the population of New York, NY (pop. 8,363,710).

    Why am I not seeing the positiveness in these numbers?

    Jake
    Apr 23 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inflation Right Around the Corner? [View article]
    I believe the author mentioned inflationary pressure, not imminence.

    I figure the bond market isn't reflecting inflation pressure because the Fed, banks, and the rest of the world keep buying bonds. Inflation hasn't been seen because banks still aren't loaning enough money to the public, but loaning it to the government (buying treasuries) to beef up their reserves. Besides, with banks still shutting down, how many banks are trusting to loan to other banks?

    What's going to happen when the banks aren't buying as much gov debt? And when that money goes into mainstream?

    What's going to happen when the Fed sells their mortgage "assets"?

    And like the author says...it is all about timing.
    Apr 23 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Things That Are Driving Spending [View article]
    I know people borrowing from their 401K, I know people enjoying their severance pay, and I know people unemployed who are part of a dual income household. Plus, everyone is highly optimistic. I don't think 9% unemployment is the same 9% of the 80's.
    Apr 21 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Big of a Problem Is the Federal Budget Deficit? [View article]
    Who appoints or elects members to the Federal Reserve board?

    Does the Federal Reserve meet with the Treasury, or Congress, or the President to "work out" (aka compromise, lobby, promote agenda, etc) economic policies?
    Apr 20 02:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail's Pleasant Surprise: The Consumer Is Not Yet Dead [View article]
    Can someone please explain how retail sales can improve, yet unemployment continues to worsen?
    Mar 7 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million Dollar Question: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
    Interest payments sure will.
    Mar 3 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million Dollar Question: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
    Good point, and I'm no "alpha" here...so even though the Federal Reserve/Treasury increased money supply, the money multiplier decreased, and therefore we have deflation?

    For me, I judge deflation by my own CPI. I shop with my own shopping basket, and I look at my bill when I pay at the register. I've also tried negotiating on larger ticket items. The companies don't want to compete on price, nor do the owners need to. If they don't win the bids, they just lay off the workers. The don't have much incentive to lower their price when they can lower their costs.
    Mar 3 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Labor Market Parity vs. the Rest of the World [View article]
    It is not really free trade. We have unions, government red tape, permits, insurance bonds, lawsuits, minimum wage, tax disadvantages, employment hiring based on gender/ethnicity, monopolies, too big to fail=too big to compete with (Microsoft will target you, rush you, or steal your idea and sell it at discount), a lot of middle management gets involved, etc. You can't start a small business with a lot of headache and cost. Therefore there's barriers to market entry.
    Mar 3 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million Dollar Question: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
    Deflation can only go so low until the seller decides it isn't worth selling. No one wants to sell at cost. I think we saw a lot of price deflation last year because of fear, risk, and large inventory. Also, I see a lot of price protection. For example, real estate agents refuse to negotiate their commission.

    My guess is that there will be geographic hot and cold spots. What is unknown is how the cold spots will affect the hot spots, or if the hot spots will affect the cold spots.

    As for wage deflation...what about January 2010 report: "personal income rose 0.1% in January".
    Mar 3 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million Dollar Question: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
    ...Seattle area. Housing is the only area I see deflation. The big reason is because people are defaulting on their home, and have no choice but to sell or foreclose. Buyer's come in and purchase on short-sell or bank auction. I haven't see one business going under since winter 2009 (I'm sure there's some, but I haven't seen any). It seems winter 2009 washed out a lot of businesses in deep debt. Just yesterday, I saw help wanted sign displayed at Home Depot. A few weeks ago saw another help wanted sign displayed at a car lot.

    But, we have Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing, government, military all pumping money into the area. If it wasn't for Microsoft, downtown Bellevue would be dead (they leased all the new office space).
    Mar 3 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million Dollar Question: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
    The only major price deflation I've seen is in real estate. I don't see businesses offering substantial discounts, I see them reducing supply and laying of employees to keep their cost down. In the future, I see more people not being able to afford as much, while still plenty of people being able to afford (i.e. the have's and the have nots...wider economic class). The only way I see this changing is by all these laid off workers starting businesses to compete against the business not lowering their prices. Unfortunately, I see the competition coming from China entering the market as competitors, not Americans.
    Feb 25 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Treasury Bonds: The Stars Are Aligning for Another Bull Run [View article]
    I wonder this too. As an individual investor, I get better rates from my savings account at a bank.
    Feb 11 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment: It's Worse than It Looks [View article]
    To assess the economy, we must take account of all metrics. I use unemployment as only one metric.
    Feb 7 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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