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Mike Holt

Mike Holt
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  • Never Mind Greece, Look At China [View article]
    I found these remarks in a WSJ article yesterday to help put things into perspective:

    "Instead of lending to companies, banks have been channeling funds to brokerages, which then use them to finance investors' stock purchases, a more lucrative practice for the banks than corporate lending.

    Debt incurred by so-called margin financing...has risen almost fivefold over the past year in China to about 2 trillion yuan ($323 billion) in early June, though the amount dropped somewhat in the past week.

    The jump in margin financing had led to growing fears of a stock-market collapse in China, which could wipe out the savings of millions of small-time investors and ignite social instability.

    A market collapse would also squash Beijing's efforts to restructure crippling debt levels and steer the economy toward more sustainable growth.

    To stave off a widespread meltdown, the PBOC, with approval by the State Council, announced a quarter-point interest rate cut on Saturday, coupled with the loosening of some banks' reserve requirements--a rare combo move not seen since 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis.

    But some analysts saw the PBOC's easing action Saturday as giving in to investor demand, pointing to risks of a vicious cycle, in which Chinese investors and the central bank become dangerously beholden to each other.

    According to Zhong Zhengsheng, director of economicresearch at Hua Chuang Securities, a state-owned brokerage, "China's monetary policy risks 'getting kidnapped' by the stock market.

    And, Haibin Zhu, China economist at JP Morgan Chase adds "Using monetary easing to support the stock market is highly debatable."

    ***

    To address these concerns, it was announced today that the Chinese state pension fund may be permitted to invest up to $93 billion in the Chinese stock market. I think they failed to understand that propping up a stock market bubble was what was actually of concern to investors, bankers, and economists--not which entity the CCP used to do so.

    Besides, why put the pension plans of Chinese citizens at risk when there is now an opportunity to shed bad loans onto naïve foreign investors who have recently been "allowed" to invest in Chinese A-Shares? Maybe this announcement was just intended to convince those investors to keep piling into these shares despite their still lofty levels.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Takes Advantage Of A Preoccupied World [View article]
    Andrew, I think I get your drift now. China holds monopsony power (a market form in which only one buyer interfaces with would be sellers of a particular product).

    This is a term hadn't heard before until I listened to a presentation by Dambisa Moyo, a Zambian-born international economist who has written a few books including "Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the World."

    I didn't agree with all of her conclusions, but you're right, if more attention is not paid to this, it will become even more difficult to deal with. We've tended to rely on creative new monetary policy actions on the part of the Federal Reserve as a panacea to any and all of our problems even though many would be better addressed through other means.

    Fortunately, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is gaining some traction, the pivot to Asia hasn't been completely derailed by growing unrest in the Middle East (although there is the potential for that to happen), and Ash Carter, the US Secretary of Defense, seems to understand the true nature of things and is not afraid to express his views.
    Jun 2, 2015. 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Takes Advantage Of A Preoccupied World [View article]
    Although financial contagion risks emanating from China are a concern for some, so far trade contagion risks have been the greater problem.

    Ironically, China's debt-fueled spending on excess capacity makes their heavily subsidized Red Capitalist economic model seem more attractive to some relative to more market-oriented economies because their greater capacity for increased debt coupled with more extend and pretend levers to be pulled means they can subsidize Chinese companies in the strategically important industries they have targeted for longer than their foreign competitors can survive within the free-market, competitive constraints of a rational economic model that requires products and services to be sold at prices higher than at least their internal costs through value-creating activities rather than direct and indirect subsidies.

    In other words, it's their debt, but it's our problem.

    http://on.wsj.com/1STZU8C

    This is obviously not sustainable, but if you adopt their long-term view of who cares about someone else's grandchildren, it's a hard model to beat.
    Jun 2, 2015. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Takes Advantage Of A Preoccupied World [View article]
    There is some truth in your observations regarding the long-term strategic planning orientation adopted by China's central planners, but if you look under the hood as closely as you encourage others to do, you will discover that many undertakings that didn't appear to make economic sense really didn't.

    Looking at the most visible, asset side of the balance sheet, this activity that showcases some very impressive engineering talent and organizational skills is quite remarkable.

    But, less visible, is the debt side of the balance sheet that has allowed China to grow its GDP from $3 trillion in 2007 to over $9 trillion today, of which about half represents Fixed Asset Investment spending fueled by debt that spun out of control. Many of the projects undertaken have resulted in unprofitable surplus capacity in a number of industries, and white elephant projects that don't generate enough revenue to cover even the interest on the debt incurred to finance them. The not so new anymore leadership of the CCP had been struggling to rein in this debt-fueled activity, and to regain control over the banking system that they rely upon as the main conduit for their broader control over the country, but this has proven to be even more difficult than they feared.

    As Michael Pettis points out, Fixed Asset Investment spending equal to almost half of China's GDP has been growing at rates over 18% per year, and this disproportionate spending has caused domestic consumer demand to be diluted to a mere 25% of GDP. So, just to keep China's GDP from shrinking, domestic consumer demand must grow at rates much greater than 18% since domestic consumer demand represents only half the base of Fixed Asset Investment spending that must now shrink in order to avoid a massive debt crisis.

    Given the propensity of the Chinese people to save a high percentage of their income for a variety of reasons, and other factors such as the uneven development of the country (e.g., the inland areas are still extremely poor and undeveloped relative to the export-oriented coastal areas), this targeted transition to a more balanced economy in order to achieve sustainable growth has fallen far short of expectations, as many expected.

    So, after a high-ranking CCP official recently completed his tour of three provinces and saw the extent to which the economy was slowing, the CCP has reversed course and ordered local government officials to borrow and spend again--or else. Although debt levels have already grown to equal 245% of China's GDP, apparently China's four major Asset Management Companies ("AMC's") plus the new AMC's that each province was ordered to establish will have the capacity to replace all the bad loans on the books of banks and state-controlled corporations with Notes Receivable from the AMC's so the poor quality of these loans can be concealed for many more years.

    And, the CCP Propaganda Machine has also encouraged the Chinese people to "invest" in the stock market because it would be "patriotic" when in fact this is just intended to create an asset bubble in stock prices to offset the impact of falling real estate prices. The Chinese stock market is already up over 100% in 2015, and efforts to short stocks of companies that are clearly overvalued have been thwarted by actions such as corporate managers requesting a halt in the trading of their shares--with no limit on how long these trading restrictions can remain in place. And, many potential short sellers fear that this stock market bubble will be perpetuated if China's stock markets are included in the MSCI International Index since a percentage of all funds directed into that index will automatically be directed into Chinese stocks regardless of their questionable fundamentals shielded by opaque accounting practices and hard to unravel circular loan guarantees, etc. So, this stock market bubble may not burst anytime soon. In fact, just as it became passé to consider the fundamentals of US dot. com companies during the late 1990's US stock market bubble, rising stock prices may serve instead as a magnet for foreign investors for some time to come.

    And, to the extent that this creates an opportunity to dump losses from bad debts onto unsuspecting foreign equity investors anxious to take advantage of the "opportunity" to invest directly in mainland-listed shares even though they lack Guangxi, the resulting diversification of the exposure to these bad debts may further reduce the risk of financial contagion emanating from China, just as many had hoped would be the case with respect to US Mortgage Backed Securities in the years leading up to the 2008 GFC. Hopefully, this time will be different.
    Jun 2, 2015. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 GDP revised down to -0.7% [View news story]
    Government statisticians are very good at identifying all the supposedly transitory factors that caused economic slowdowns, but are painfully ignorant of the more obvious long-term fundamental conditions behind this, chief among them being Debt and Demographics.

    The aging of a disproportionately large segment of the population that used to spend like crazy (thanks, in part, to the housing bubble that let them tap the equity they once thought they had in their homes as if it was an ATM) has contributed to a decline in consumer spending as these baby boomers finally realize that they must save for retirement. (This decline is obscured by a rise in government payouts for programs such as social security which are categorized in the Consumer Spending bucket of GDP rather than as Government Spending based on the notion that whatever the Government pays, the recipients will spend.)

    As for debt, after a disorderly deleveraging process caused a near financial system meltdown during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the powers that be promised that the risk of similar episodes in the future would be minimized through an orderly deleveraging process that they would orchestrate over a period of a decade or more. The fact that it would take this long to reduce debt levels to manageable levels revealed the magnitude of the problem, and left many wondering if bouts of disorderly deleveraging episodes could, in fact, be avoided given that excess debt was that large. With Central Bankers playing an even greater role in our supposedly free market economy, we were assured that this deleveraging process would occur in a gradual, orderly fashion.

    The result? Since 2008, global debt has GROWN, rather than shrunk. And, it has grown by a lot--by $50 Trillion, from $150 Trillion back then to $200 Trillion today. Compare this to a $70 Trillion global GDP and you get a Debt/GDP ratio of 285%--on a global basis. There was a time when Debt/GDP ratios approaching 80% were considered dangerously high, and led to financial crises followed by "lost decades" in places like Argentina--indeed, for South America as a whole.

    But, now this debt is considered a panacea, even though it serves only to temporarily extend a condition of "stable disequilibrium" in which declines in consumer spending are offset by increases in debt-fueled capital spending to produce even more surplus productive capacity--most notably in China. Such is the beauty of artificially low interest rates that also allow governments to temporarily keep their debt carrying costs relatively unchanged over the past two decades even though their debt levels have soared--just like consumers once did when they were able to rack up debt on their credit cards at the initial 0% teaser rates that got hundreds of millions of Americans addicted to debt.

    And, even the transitory factors to which government statisticians attribute the first quarter 2015 contraction in GDP may not be as transitory as they insist. How cold weather in the Northeast can cause the entire US economy (and the economies of many other countries) to slow when interest rates are at unbelievably low levels and gasoline prices were chopped in half is hard to fathom, but if it has had such a pronounced effect, shouldn't we have a better understanding of these weather conditions before we dismiss them as transitory?

    I'll bet few people have even heard of Bardarbunga, the largest of Iceland's 30 volcano systems, although you'd never know it given that it lies several miles beneath a huge glacier. But, we should since Bardarbunga spewed sulphur into the atmosphere for over six months during 2014--the biggest continuous volcanic eruption in several centuries--and these high concentrations of dense sulphur are what caused the shift in the polar vortex that is to blame for the unusually cold weather in the Northeast this winter.

    And, in 2013, there were 34 active volcanoes, the highest number ever experienced in a single year, which can also affect our weather for decades if the ash they emit reaches the Stratosphere where it will remain for prolonged time periods rather than just settling back down to earth. So far, reports attempting to explain this increase in volcanic activity and its linkage to colder weather and the altered El Nino conditions in the Pacific that have led to droughts in California have gone largely unnoticed.

    And, other than climatologists, little attention has been given to the fact that a huge crack is forming in the glacier above the Bardarbunga volcano in Iceland suggesting that this incredibly large volcano (its caldera is a whopping 10 kilometers in diameter) is about to erupt much more violently than before. If so, we might experience much longer and colder winters in Europe, Canada, and the Northeast US than the "Snowmageddons" experienced over the past two years.

    Its not clear what real impact this may have on our economy, but, at least it would give policy makers the opportunity to blame future episodes of deflation / deleveraging on something other than the macro development trends of Debt and Demographics (the so called "Third Rail" of politics) that they have largely ignored over the past 30+ years.
    May 30, 2015. 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Epilogue to TREM '11 -- A Focus on Chinese Trade Restrictions and the WTO [View instapost]
    With the WTO now broken due to the inability to enforce restrictions on unfair trade practices that have become far more frequent and flagrant since China was admitted to the WTO in 2001 (ironically, with the expectation that allowing China into the WTO would cause them to become more responsible stakeholders in the global economy), attention has now turned to regional trade agreements instead.

    The Trans-Pacific Partnership that would promote free trade between the US and numerous Asian countries excluding China is one such agreement.

    Although incredibly important developments such as this get far less attention than the noise of daily fluctuations in market prices for this or that, and can be obscured by other geopolitical events and developments with less important long-term strategic significance, it is somewhat encouraging to see the US finally turning to the USTR to address the growing damage being inflicted upon the US economy and to the proper functioning of global markets as a result of the CCP's sponsorship of Red Capitalism in all its various forms, rather than relying on QE programs initiated by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the world to serve as a panacea for any and all problems.

    However, now that the TPP has been developed to a stage where it can be introduced to Congress for approval, it now faces stiff opposition from special interest groups on both sides of the aisle. Some of their concerns are valid, or at least understandable, and there may be room for improvement in some of the proposed terms of the TPP, but what many fail to realize is that the outcomes with which they are most concerned would be exponentially worse if this trade agreement is not implemented. To hold out for perfection across a broad spectrum of issues as if global competition was non-existent is simply naive.

    Here is a link to the USTR website for more info on the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    https://ustr.gov/tpp
    Apr 29, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • '60 Minutes' Tackles Rare Earths [View article]
    For more info on the relevance of thorium to the development of rare earth resources outside of China, this article that appeared on oilprice .com today may be of interest.

    http://bit.ly/1Gd44lQ
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • '60 Minutes' Tackles Rare Earths [View article]
    Shaduc, the world's reliance upon China for rare earth minerals and high tech components derived from rare earths is a matter of fact rather than of opinion.

    So, yes the US is reliant upon China for these components that are critical to the high tech industries that play an important role in the growth of our increasingly knowledge-based economy.

    These components are also used in the self-guided missiles that you mentioned, and in many other advanced weapons systems as well.

    But, the US and China are locked into an odd relationship where they have become increasingly reliant upon each other and must cooperate to a certain extent in order to achieve their strategic objectives but seek to gain power relative to the other in the process.

    For example, it became obvious during the 2008 financial crisis that the economy doesn't function properly absent growth, and that economic growth is also critical to keeping debt to GDP ratios in check since austerity is so unpopular. So, the US, Europe, Japan and other developed countries faced with a dangerous cocktail of aging populations and already high debt levels have turned to China, directly or indirectly, to achieve this economic growth.

    But, China has been sustaining its growth over the past several years by incurring debt at an unprecedented rate in order to fund Fixed Asset Investment activities that by definition are non-recurring in nature.

    So, where will all this lead? Government leaders should have been able to anticipate decades ago the impact that the aging of the baby boomers would have on economic growth and government finances, but rather than taking the tough actions needed to address this they have instead labeled this as the third rail of politics and essentially agreed among themselves to ignore it. Now, when they're faced with the question of what should be done after decades of neglect, the simple answer is to turn to China and to massive monetary policy experiments on the part of central banks rather than tackling the fundamental problems for which there is no political courage to address.

    And, they attempt to downplay the significance of any conflicts with China that could derail economic growth, such as the fact that the Chinese government has been a major sponsor of cyber theft against the US, including confidential information for the F-35 fighter jet and many, many other offenses that would likely be intolerable if they took place in broad daylight rather than the shadowy world of cyberspace.

    Will China eventually evolve into a responsible global stakeholder as many hope, or will it seek to dominate strategically important industries using every means at the disposal of the Chinese Communist Party leaders possibly even with the objective of punishing the rest of the world for China's century of humiliation?

    These are tough questions to answer and are best left to geopolitical experts whose views are more likely to be expressed elsewhere, but I believe that China's decades in the making strategy of controlling rare earths and downstream industries that are critical building blocks for numerous high tech industries including the defense industry will play an increasingly important role.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • '60 Minutes' Tackles Rare Earths [View article]
    After China, the second largest consumer of rare earths is Japan. Being an island nation, they are not blessed with plentiful supplies of commercially viable rare earth deposits. But, the US, an important ally, does have plentiful supplies of rare earths that could be extracted. Given the strategic importance of rare earths due to their use in our most advanced weapons systems and for a wide range of applications across virtually all of our high tech industries that we rely upon for economic growth to keep debt to GDP ratios from spinning further out of control, it is therefore astounding to the Japanese that the US has discouraged, rather than encouraged, the development of domestic rare earth mining operations.

    One reason for this is our inefficient, patchwork quilt network of environmental regulatory bodies with overlapping jurisdictions imposing, inconsistent or even contradictory requirements that can result in a twelve year process just to get approval to begin a mining operation.

    Another, less well known reason is that rare earths, particularly the most critical heavy rare earths, are often accompanied by deposits of moderately radioactive thorium. And, since there is no market for thorium, it becomes a liability with extremely high storage costs, rather than an asset to potential miners, who then can't economically justify investing in a mining operation even if their investors were prepared to deal with the decade-long permit process described above.

    Fortunately, the Thorium Energy Alliance, a group of scientists and others familiar with a safer, cheaper form of nuclear energy technology that is sustained by thorium rather than enriched uranium has remained determined in their efforts to call attention to this technology that was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratories in the 1950's and 60's, but then abandoned largely for political reasons.

    http://bit.ly/OHAsyO

    If the Thorium Energy Alliance can succeed in simply calling attention to the merits of the newer, safer, form of nuclear energy that they advocate, known as a Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor ["LFTR"], this would not only create a market for thorium that would potentially break down an important barrier to the development of domestic rare earth mines, it could also revolutionize the energy industry and bring about a number of other positive changes that could reshape the 21st century in ways previously only imagined, e.g., the economical production of hydrogen for use in recyclable, energy-dense liquid fuels, water desalinization, and an easing of global tensions regarding nuclear weapons production capabilities which would no longer be synergistic with claimed aspirations to develop nuclear energy programs.

    But, developing rare earth mines in the US is just the tip of the iceberg. The more critical issue facing the US and many other countries around the world is the lack of qualified people with the education, training, and experience to compete in downstream industries that process rare earths into the increasingly advanced components that are actually needed to fulfill high tech applications. Having a lump of dirt somewhere will not help Apple (AAPL) compete with Xiaomi, the privately held Chinese company that is the third largest global smartphone distributor to build smartphones with the tiny speakers, vivid displays, and high data storage capabilities that are just some of the features that are made possible by rare earth based components.

    At one time, the US possessed this talent, but today many of those with an expertise in this area are approaching retirement age, if they haven't already, so according to Karl Gschneidner, for example, there is a huge void in the US talent pool within this critical area that would already require 15-years of dedicated effort jus to catch up with the current stage of development of these industries within China. Understandably, this has Karl Gschneidner, who played an important role in the success of The Manhattan Project, greatly concerned--especially since most Americans don't even recognize the challenge with which we are faced.
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:28 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • '60 Minutes' Tackles Rare Earths [View article]
    It was encouraging to see that not everyone has forgotten or become complacent about the risks associated with our reliance on China for over 90% of rare earths and a growing share of rare earths-based components manufactured in downstream industries.

    When attention was drawn to this risk in 2011, it led to keen investor interest in junior rare earth mining companies, causing their shares to soar. As prices for rare earths fell, the stock prices for those rare earth mining companies fell with them, causing investor interest to wane.

    But, since this serves to increase, rather than decrease, the risk that the CCP will be successful in achieving its objective of dominating strategically important industries through its control over access to rare earths based components critical to so many high tech applications, attention to this risk among investors [as well as government and military leaders, and the public at large] should be growing, not waning.

    Maybe this risk would be better appreciated if more attention was directed toward the manner in which the CCP has quietly gone about orchestrating its strategy to dominate industries reliant upon rare earths based components over a period of many decades.

    There are several Chinese universities and Chinese government funded research centers that sponsor PhD programs that focus on the unique properties of rare earths and their critical importance across a wide range of applications that will be critical to national defense as well as the high tech industries upon which
    knowledge based economies are increasingly reliant for their desperately needed economic growth.

    And, opportunities for the scores of PhD students graduating from these programs are virtually guaranteed through government subsidies for companies in these industries, whose success, in turn, is critical to the achievement of CCP efforts to dominant the strategically important industries that have been identified in their successive 5-year economic development plans for decades.

    And, don't forget that it was the two sons-in-law of Deng Xiaopeng, who is also known as the father of the rare earths industry in China, who were among the investors who acquired Magnequench, the Terre Haute, Indiana manufacturer of bonded neodymium magnets before its US operations were closed down and shifted to China shortly after its acquisition.

    There is much more to this story, but if investors educate themselves regarding developments in the rare earths space within this context, then they will appreciate how these developments will not only impact the shares of companies in which they are invested, but may also impact many key global macro factors that could influence what the 21st century holds in store for them and their families.
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:36 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: ETC-1002 Development Remains On Track [View article]
    Mark, I have read both of your articles, as well as the comments for both, and I feel much better informed as a result.

    Its up to each investor to do their own due diligence and to formulate their own opinions regarding the information presented, but your analysis, summarized in a clear and concise manner, together with the comments shared by some readers, has certainly helped me to put things into better perspective. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
    Mar 20, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    Yet, when the wheels were falling off the wagon in 2008 for the same obvious reasons, investors were asking the supposed experts all around them "why didn't you see this coming?"

    The answer of course was that most would rather fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally. If you try hard enough, you can even convince yourself that not only is the Emperor wearing clothes, but he is wearing very find, splendid clothes.

    What's that you say? Oh, "this time is different?"

    And why, may I ask, do even the central bankers themselves, to whom some now attribute super human knowledge and skills, continually warn that their efforts to keep the economy afloat will ultimately fail absent fundamental economic reforms?

    When those who are being relied upon to support the argument that the economy no longer matters respond that the economy does indeed matter, and that ever increasing debt levels are not a panacea for the fundamental problems plaguing large swaths of the global economy, then I think its time to take concerns about large and growing debt levels in China and in many parts of the world much more seriously.

    Total debt in China has soared by $20 trillion since 2007, causing their debt to rise to 282% of their GDP in record time which should tell you something about the quality of this debt, yet because their unsustainable debt-fueled Fixed Asset Investment spending has temporarily served as an engine of global economic growth, now those able to conceal themselves after they were caught naked when the tide went out before this new, larger debt tsunami are trying to convince the observers onshore that its now safe for them to go skinny dipping, too. And those nearby speed boats their friends are tinkering with that have catchy names such as "Flash Trader" are actually life boats equipped with buckets large enough to bail out everyone this time.

    So, what to do? Avoid shark-infested waters, wear a life jacket, and get onboard a gunboat, or something similar such as the Aerospace and Defense ETF (ITA). Cyber-security stocks have done well, but that means their valuations are not nearly as attractive as they were a year ago. However, a 7% yield on midstream MLP's that don't take possession of the oil and natural gas that they get paid to transport still looks attractive relative to paltry yields on US Treasuries or sovereign debt of most developed countries.

    Stocks of companies in defensive industries such as Health Care have been popular for awhile, but their higher valuations have brought with them higher levels of risk, especially since there is no guarantee that the next grain of sand dropped on the mountain of debt piling up throughout the world won't be the one to cause an avalanche. That could create some buying opportunities, so keep some dry powder around that can be used to unearth those opportunities and serve as ballast in the meantime.
    Feb 20, 2015. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Monumental Debt Trap - Why It Will Rock The Global Economy [View article]
    Rising debt levels in China should not be our only cause for concern. Debt levels in the US have been growing rapidly ever since the late 1970's, and debt levels have accumulated even more rapidly since 2007. And, judging by a recent CBO report, this was not a temporary phenomenon that will be followed by an orderly deleveraging process that will serve to bring debt levels down to manageable levels.

    "Consequently, the $13.4 trillion in debt held by the public projected for 2015, which would be akin to 74 percent of the overall economy, is projected to swell to $21.6 trillion by 2025, when it would total 79 percent of the economy. As recently as 2007, before the Great Recession, it was equal to about 35 percent of the economy."

    “Federal debt remains greater relative to the (overall economy) than at any time since just after World War II,” the CBO report says.

    http://bit.ly/1DBjd0K
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    Citizens of the PRC save 30% of their income, which represents about 35% of China's GDP. So, their savings translates into about 10% of GDP.

    Meanwhile, debt accumulated by governments at all levels, and by state-owned corporations has grown to 282% of GDP, with $20 Trillion of that debt incurred since 2007.

    So, while I admire the savings discipline of the hundreds of millions of PRC citizens who now have modest incomes to compensate them for their not so modest efforts, they have just been immersed deeply into debt. And, unlike the very rich who can simply pack up and go along with all the wealth they have created for themselves, most of the PRC citizens with an average per capita GDP of $7,500 per year will be left stuck holding the tab--which is even larger when you tally up the costs to recover from the severe environmental damage that they have also been saddled with.

    I take no comfort in this. In fact, I find it very sad and unfair--if not tragic.

    Nor do I believe that the debt levels that are rapidly accumulating in China make the debt levels that are rapidly accumulating in the rest of the world any less worrisome. To state otherwise is like the pot calling the kettle black. When their are no better alternatives, it can allow every country engaged in these debt- as- a- substitute for fundamental reform charades to keep on playing for longer than many thought possible, but when they start driving off their respective fiscal cliffs leaving fewer participants left to buy the debt issued by the remaining players, there will be no "winners."
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Monumental Debt Trap - Why It Will Rock The Global Economy [View article]
    My understanding is that the PBoC has an offsetting RMB denominated liability that must be repaid if they were to liquidate Fx Reserves.

    Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see whether the PBoC will be willing to put those Fx Reserves to work to support the Fx value of the RMB:

    http://on.mktw.net/1L9...

    Contrary to all of the headlines about past efforts to keep their currency artificially low, their objective over the past several years has been to strengthen the Fx Value of the RMB in the hope that it would gain wider acceptance as a reserve currency.

    But, slowing growth coupled with accelerating debt levels may require a return to their previous currency devaluation strategies--or induce others to devalue their currency for them.
    Feb 17, 2015. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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