Saildog

Why Is Oil Trading at $53 When Supply and Demand Is So Bearish?

The article would have been better had the author learned something about energy.

Crude Report Stumps Analysts

This may be the impact of the growing net (oil) export problem. Imports are down significantly from Venzuela and Mexico; and the turn around time for shipping from the Middle East is 5 times longer than from the Carribbean. Just a hunch........ It would be worth while checking where the shortfalls are occurring. If it is in the Gulf refineries I am not surprised.

This is what is known as the Export Land effect - oil exporting countries have rapidly growing domestic consumption and stagnant or declining production dealing a double blow to net exports. Globally exports of oil are down some 2m barrels since 2005.

Why Exxon Still Denies Peak Oil

Brian - first off 2008 is a <i>forecast</... At least I am dead certain that the calendar is not abiotic. Then the IEA data includes biofuels and syncrude from tar, which by definition are not crude oil. Their energy contribution to society (over their energy inputs) is miniscule or negative; and the impact of their prodcution on the world has been catastrophic.

I will accept C+C as crude oil and that did Peak in Jan 2008 at something like 100k barrels more than the previous Peak in July 2006. However these tiny changes in production are well below the error level in the data set so I am not going to read and weep. In any event I would welcome a robust increase in production, or even just an announcement that a significant new province of easily recoverable oil had been found.

I am not sure why you and people like you want to muddy these waters. At the very least wishing/hoping/believi... in abiotic oil (even with pictures from the mid-Atlantic ridge) do not amount to an increase in a recoverable resource. Intellectual honesty demands that you concede there is a significant risk that oil production has peaked or soon will and that the consequences, already highly damaging, can only get worse.

Why Exxon Still Denies Peak Oil

CERA calculate production declines as 4.5% which amounts to nearly 4m barrels per day of lost production from existing fields. It is higher in the North Sea, at Canterell and various other OECD fields, so quite how they get to 4.5% we shall never know.

Even so, using this 4.5% decline rate one can quickly work out that the world loses 9m barrels per day from existing fields in about 2 years and three months. That is one Saudi Arabia in less than 30 months and 2 Saudi Arabia in less than 5 years.

Please can some of those who commented above (except Brian Pursley - who implausibly believes in abiotic oil regeneration) explain just how many Saudi Arabias are "out there"?

I personally think anybody who believes oil production will rise smoothly in the years ahead is deluded or ignorant. We are at or near the limit in terms of daily production. It is really quite simple, it is VERY important, yet seemingly, like lemmings, we do not care about the cliff ahead.

US Oil Companies Borrow A Page From OPEC's Playbook

The article doesn't make sense.

The fundamental problem underlying all of this is faltering oil supply. Read www.businessweek.com/m....

OPEC are lying about their ability to raise production. They most likely can't and this is a smoke screen. The oil companies know that production growth has stalled. Why invest billions in new plant if production growth has stalled?

They would prefer to take the heat on all of this nonsense rather than admit the truth: Global production cannot increase. They know they are going to take heat anyway, so they prefer to blame it on the president. He is an unpopular idiot, so it doesn't matter.