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Salmo trutta

Salmo trutta
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  • What To Buy During The Coming Pullback [View article]
    Y-o-y money growth is subpar. Unless it grows, indicating that velocity, or spending, has picked up, there will be a recession beginning in the 4th qtr.
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1982 Playbook [View article]
    The current #"s indicate a 4th qtr. recession. There will have to be gov't intervention to prevent it. And that won't happen.
    Jul 1, 2015. 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1982 Playbook [View article]

    "The slowdown in national income in the first quarter was mostly due to the strong dollar hurting corporate profits. But household income held up: Real disposable personal incomes actually accelerated to a 5.3% annual pace, the highest in more than two years"
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1982 Playbook [View article]
    "why should student loans be treated any different from any other type of unsecured debt"

    Now we have an economic reason.
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Ratio Signals Recessions And Inequality [View article]
    "you have not shown any link between lower interest rates and investment in capital goods"

    You said: ”In terms of the liquidity preferences of businesses, various surveys of capital expenditure plans and hiring intentions clearly show that businesses are less inclined to hoard cash and are increasingly inclined to spend it”
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    7/22/15 is the seasonal inflection date this year.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whither Bonds? Arnott Answers [View article]
    From "MoneyIllusion"

    2013—federal revenue from asset sales soared, primarily due to dividend payments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. By my calculations the revenue from asset sales increased by about $111 billion, from $53.6 billion in 2012 to $164.7 billion in 2013. This is certainly a non-trivial portion of the $500 billion in deficit reduction that occurred during 2013,
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Something Wrong With The World Today And It's 1995 [View article]
    Martin Lowy:

    Yes, I agree:

    "This Final Rule amends the agencies’ general risk-based and advanced risk-based capital adequacy frameworks in recognition of the regulatory capital impact of two recently-issued accounting standards from the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB): Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 166, Accounting for Transfers of Financial Assets, an Amendment of FASB Statement No. 140 (FAS 166), and Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 167, Amendments to FASB Interpretation No. 46(R) (FAS 167)"
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing [View article]
    The author can't forecast. This is what he said on Feb 13th:

    This is the title of your article and your forecast was: "The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher"
    Feb. 13, 2015

    “Fundamentally, it is my view that after a one- or two-quarter lull in the pace of economic growth at the beginning of 2015, the US economy will re-accelerate by the second or third quarter and for the rest of 2015.”

    “QE is still with us. It will help propel the U.S. economy and U.S. stocks forward in 2015.”

    “the expansionary impacts on the US economy and stock market of the terminated QE program would actually accelerate in the one- or two-year period after the conclusion of QE.”

    “Thus, not only is the total stock of liquidity not declining after the termination of QE, this accumulated stock of liquidity is actually still growing at a very brisk pace”

    “Contrary to popular belief, the economy and/or stock market does not, under current conditions, need ever-increasing amounts of liquidity to grow.”

    “Every dip will be met with strong demand”

    “TINA (There Is No Alternative) is a factor that will favor equities for several years”

    “There are various other risks that could negatively impact markets in the first half of 2015”

    “The main point I want to get across is that in a one-year time frame, my outlook for stocks is positive”.
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    "last 2 days"

    I agree with Joseph Granville, the news doesn't have much to do with the markets.

    Can't predict levels since the G.6 release was discontinued, only change of direction. Vt is an unknown. But we'll get a drop come Sept month-end (seasonal and then some). Then we'll get more selling once people figure out that the economy has, once again, contracted, and the base line's been lowered.
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Doorstep Of A Fed Rate Hike Cycle [View article]
    Thank you. No inversion now, but we're headed into a recession.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mo Data, Mo Data: FOMC Predicts Steep Trajectory On Rate Hike And What It Means For Bank Profitability [View article]
    Ernie's one to follow. But I never had a penchant for stock selection, "slippery hickory" et. al.

    Profession economists don't understand the IOeR. The IOeR "bottles up" savings producing a great economic friction that retards economic activity (money velocity).
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anecdotes On Eurodollar 'Money Supply'; Part 2 [View article]
    "Get ready for September"

    Used to be a gambler (and followed other gambler's leads). Made and lost lots. It's quite a thrill to buy expiring IBM options and turn 300 into 17000 in a couple of weeks (actually a seasonal earning's play).

    Joseph Calhoun recommends looking at the last 2 weeks in Sept. We will be able to narrow it down by then. And you have to remember that the big boys know the seasonality as well.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Is Shrinking [View article]
    "you can pick good stock right before the broad market decline and no matter how good the stock is you may experience big losses"

    Astute history lesson.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Bubble? Stocks And Bonds Look Poised For A Drop [View article]
    "We'll hopefully in 6 months I can congratulate you on a great prediction"

    I used to be smart but I don't have any brain cells left. And I can read thhe same page for a half hour and not remember what I read. I'm bipolar. It's not a great prediction, it's the way the world, quite puzzling, works.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment