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Salmo trutta

Salmo trutta
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  • Does The Federal Reserve Have Any Responsibility For The Economy? [View article]
    Here's who caused our recessions since the Great-Depression:

    Period ................. Chairman

    Nov 1948 – Oct 1949... Thomas B. McCabe
    July 1953 – May 1954... William M. Martin
    Aug 1957 – Apr 1958... William M. Martin
    Apr 1960 – Feb 1961... William M. Martin
    Dec 1969 – Nov 1970... William M. Martin
    Nov 1973 – Mar 1975... Arthur Burns
    Jan 1980 – July 1980... Paul Volcker
    July 1981– Nov 1982... Paul Volcker
    July 1990 – Mar 1991... Alan Greenspan
    Mar 2001 – Nov 2001... Alan Greenspan
    Dec 2007 – Jun 2009... Ben Bernanke

    I.e., all these recessions were both predictable and preventable.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Put Reserves Into Banking System During Week Of Stock Market Declines [View article]
    Nattering:

    Looks like you threw up and missed the toilet.

    "We are deep in the caverns of economic theory now. Careful there, the rocks are slippery with moss; be warned of the fathomless logical cavities, the metaphysical cul-de-sacs, and all the methodological stalactites and stalagmites ready to snare the unwary intellect. Be not surprised if you see nothing you recognize. This world is not meant for ordinary mortals; it’s for the merest few—men of occult knowledge and ethereal genius, mathematical logicians with no little contempt for the crude statistics of that vulpine species, the businessman. Economic theory is as estranged from the real world as business enterprise as, say; quantum physics is estranged from the realities of the television repair shop. And yet, while the physicist’s theorizing may find rather immediate, most concrete expression in the repair man’s circuit boards, the economists’ theories have no clear nexus with the natural pulse of economic life. In economic theory, there is no necessary connection between generally accepted facts of experience and their theoretical interpretation. Cash money, for instance, may play an obvious role in actual life, but its position in monetary theory is ambiguous, opaque, contradictory, an issue of hot and cool debate in n dimensions and infinite declensions." - Edward Meadows


    Case in point, for the commercial banking system, the whole is not the sum of its parts.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pop Monetary Economics [View article]
    I'm not sure he can purge comments on his blog. But "the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few, booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately by the grace of God - Thomas Jefferson
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    That's what you think.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pop Monetary Economics [View article]
    Scott Sumner has posted on MONEYILLUSION that he doesn't know the differences between money and liquid assets, between financial intermediaries and commercial banks. No, Scott Sumner has no idea what MONETARISM is. I.e., he's a "Pied Piper" leading his flock of sheep over a steep cliff.

    There's only one economist that's predicted every turn of the economy, e.g., that 80 percent of the thrift's assets which were in long-term mortgages prior to the DIDMCA and would fall, as they did, to 55 percent of their earning assets (directly because of that legislation). Scott Sumner had no idea that this would happen and he was teaching at Bentley University.

    Scott Sumner can't forecast and Scott Sumner can't tell you how to achieve his stated objective of targeting N-gDp. He can't even forecast inflation. In fact, he admits that forecasting the stock market has nothing to do with economics.
    Aug 31, 2015. 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pop Monetary Economics [View article]
    Scott Sumner is IGNORANT. The "MB" is not now (esp. since it's remunerated and acts as a credit control device), and has never been a base for the expansion of new money and credit. The expansion of the currency component of the MB [sic] is contractionary. How STUPID.

    SEE:

    http://bit.ly/yUdRIZ

    Quantitative Easing and Money Growth:
    Potential for Higher Inflation?
    Daniel L. Thornton

    Only an idiot would target N-gDp. Targeting N-gDp is pseudo-science. Stop-go monetary mis-management revolves around targeting R-gDp (which is easy to do). But Scott Sumner can't forecast. He rhetoric is ALWAYS retrofitted.
    Aug 31, 2015. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    No, you don't get it, AD falls. Oil just rallied. Excellent time to enter shorts.
    Aug 31, 2015. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    Dfjpr:

    See also:

    "Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks"

    http://tinyurl.com/pzp...
    ---------------

    It's all about Professor Irving Fisher's "price-level". What commodity is most vulnerable to a drop in AD?
    Aug 30, 2015. 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Put Reserves Into Banking System During Week Of Stock Market Declines [View article]
    The RRP will work fine (as all the FRB-NY's "trading desk" counterparties are non-banks - so draining or "moping up", is dollar-for-dollar vs. eligible securities). But raising the remuneration rate is decidedly deflationary, even contractionary, i.e., NO KEYNESIAN STIMULUS.

    The fact is remunerating reserves is pseudo science.
    Aug 30, 2015. 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    Dfjpr:

    You should be short going into Nov month end. And why would you tolerate a draw down going into the seasonal downswing? You must have lots of extra money.
    Aug 30, 2015. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    Dfjpr:

    There's never been a comparable (virtually overnight), contraction in long-term monetary flows (proxy for inflation and esp. bonds), as there will be come this Dec. (i.e., barring improbable gov't intervention).

    Stay away from oil (even if the Saudi's are still fighting in Northern Yemen).
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    Definition of an economic depression:

    1.a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
    2.a recession lasting 2 or more years.

    I can't measure the magnitude of any move (there's no valid Vt figure) and I can't forecast past 1 year.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Crazy After All These Years? [View article]
    Well have to set aside some time to play around with that formula.

    Did you see Atlanta's 3rd qtr. R-gDp forecast?

    http://tinyurl.com/nah...
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Slides Into Recession [View article]
    Dfjpr:

    So now you're definitely on record to say that WTI won't fall below $40?

    I'll take the other side of that trade at Nov month-end. E.g., see ZeroHedge:

    Scariest Number For The Oil Industry: $550 Billion

    The S-hit hasn't hit the fan yet! P.s. I can't forecast depressions.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Put Reserves Into Banking System During Week Of Stock Market Declines [View article]
    Never said you did. But the H.4.1 doesn't give you as much information as the clearing collateral or RRP data (temporary OMOs). It's just like 911. Reserves (liquidity), were injected and never used.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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