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dougporetz

dougporetz
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  • LLLL, OSIS AND MICHAEL CHERTOFF AND AIRPORT GROIN GROPES [View instapost]
    The TSA's handling of the pat-down issue is a lesson in bad PR -- it's execution lacks credibility and understanding, is basically arrogant about the superiority of its views versus the travelling public's, and is therefore counter-productive. Some more thoughts here: www.nuuko.com/2010/11/.../
    Nov 22, 2010. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deteriorating Macro Picture [View article]
    Shortly after the market crash of 2008, I wrote, from the perspective of a guy with 40+ years in corporate communications, largely focused on investor relations, that every good IR guy knew that the flip side of a disaster is the future ability to compare results to the disaster. So when we see "improved results" what are the results are improvement over?

    Similarly, with stocks at all time lows, you could also expect that the IR guys went into the CEO's office to say "boss .... Let's bring earnings expectations way down ... It won't matter to The Street because they aren't going to buy our stock now anyhow." When the boss responded with a suggested new estimate, the good IR guy said "lower lower.". And that is how corporate America sandbagged investors. So, when a company "beats" estimates, it is at least partly due to the fact that those estimates were created by corporations that guided the analysts and investors way way down precisely so they could beat estimates later, as they are now reporting.

    I haven't done it myself, but I'd love to see an analysis of earnings compared not to prior year results when the economy was still reeling from the debt dougporetz@nuuko.com and the market crash, nor compared to estimates that are very possibly set artificially low, but to a prior period when things were closer to normal, maybe 2008 or even 2007 results and the estimates for growth that then existed.

    Current comparisons are misleading and mask that relative to a more normal economy and more realistic earnings expectations, American corporations are doing even worse than it appears.
    Aug 31, 2010. 07:45 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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