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Onlinden

Onlinden
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  • MLPs Are Not Extremely Overvalued By Any Measure [View article]
    Jens -- I ditto the praise for your article. Great articulation of the attraction of the MLP sector. Please publish immediately if you hear any more about proposed tax changes.
    Aug 30 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bubble? It's All About The Dollar [View article]
    Interesting article. Thanks.
    Aug 29 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Plan Gains Momentum [View article]
    Your/Obama's idea does in fact hurt someone -- the owners of the mortgages that will be refi'd at uneconomic rates! There is no free lunch, and any government program of this sort is stealing from someone, whether it is taxpayers, banks, mortgage owners (remember that many many Fannie/Freddie backed mortgages are not owned by the "evil" banks but by other investors), or whoever else has to foot the bill. I'm sick and tired of this Administration riding roughshod over property rights and feeling entitled to change the economic rules to reward favored groups. If this idea goes forward, I hope every institutional mortgage owner sues the crap out of the Fed government!
    Aug 29 06:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Plan Gains Momentum [View article]
    Excellent thinking. This idea was embedded in TARP -- remember the warrants the Feds got from the banks? Homeowners should not get a freebie gift from the government once again.
    Aug 29 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement's 4% Rule: Why Mr. & Mrs. Income Don't Need It (Part 1) [View article]
    David -- great article, you speak directly to many of us by personalizing your narrative. I too am a big believer in the d-g strategy -- I admit I strayed from it in the recent short-lived bull market and came to regret it!! One important piece of analysis I'd love to see (that other comments here have also pointed to) is how a d-g portfolio keeps up with inflation over different inflation and rate environments. For example, how did the dividend stream fare from say 1970 to 1982, when inflation and interest rates were rising? My biggest fear with my income stream is that it withers in real terms if the Fed ultimately has to inflate our national debt away. The converse would be present day Japan -- I wonder how the prices of Japanese d-g stocks have done over the last two decades there in an environment with no inflation and very low interest rates, but in which stock prices have declined 75% generally? Just things I worry about.

    btw -- why no MLPs on your list of excellent stocks?

    Thanks and keep up the good work.
    Aug 29 12:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MLPs Are Extremely Overvalued As An Asset Class (Part 1) [View article]
    Consider one other thing -- if you agree that investors buy MLPs for their income, do you think that income stream has become more or less attractive in the current ultra-low interest rate environment? My biggest worry with all income investments is rate increases.
    Aug 26 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MLPs Are Extremely Overvalued As An Asset Class (Part 1) [View article]
    Fair point about telecoms James, and I'll offer two thoughts based on my own investing experience with these companies as well. First, I don't agree that telecoms will grow faster than MLPs in the future. The leaders (T, VZ) may grow modestly due to wireless and fiber, but the majority (e.g. CTL, WIN, FTR, ALSK, etc.) are flat to shrinking while many MLPs grow 3-7% consistently due to modest tariff and volume growth even excluding the impact of new capex projects. Second, I believe that the valuations of many dividend payers would rise if they paid out a higher % of their FCF. I believe this is partly due to the attractiveness to many investors of receiving a return on their investment every quarter through cash rather than having to reply heavily on capital appreciation (i.e. cold hard cash in the bank rather than relying entirely on the vicissitudes of eps, management missteps, and market multiples). I agree with you that CF based valuation is the most valuable metric. Consider these angles and GLTA.
    Aug 26 01:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MLPs Are Extremely Overvalued As An Asset Class (Part 1) [View article]
    Benzz (and a couple others) have said it exactly right -- James, your analysis is rigorous but you're missing the picture. Investors invest in MLPs for income, and the primary valuation metric is a combination of dividend yield and dividend growth. The business models are typically stable, and therefore MLP equities are a hybrid bond and equity security. And remember the tax bill is levied at the personal level not the corporate level -- which all other things being equal should boost valuations of MLPs by 35% vs corporates. If anyone is afraid their MLPs are 50% overvalued, I would be happy to buy them at a 25% discount to market and split the difference with you. :)
    Aug 26 11:39 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Still On Its Way To $5,000 [View article]
    Yeah, boy it would sure suck to return to the type of economic growth we enjoyed in the 1980s under Reagan. That trickle down sure was crazy! Obama's economic policies of vilification, confiscation and redistribution are working much better aren't they?!
    Aug 24 12:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Still On Its Way To $5,000 [View article]
    Marvin wrote: "Vice President Joe Biden was dispatched to China to tell US lenders that the vigorish will continue, on time, on our downgraded sovereign debt. His mission also is to inform our creditors that paying them is a “big f#@king deal.” Never mind the 70 – 80 members of the Lower House, or the sizable minority in the Upper House of Representatives in government, or the several declared Presidential candidates running in 2012, or the influential talking heads, that think it’s no big deal to default on the Chinese.
    When congress reconvenes in September, its unmanly variation of suicide-by-cop – let the super committee cut spending and if it doesn't and we don’t have the nerve to do the right thing and cut spending ourselves, automatic across-the-board cuts will kick in – might be interrupted by another hostage taking episode for the government to continue operating as the fiscal year-end is 9/30/2011."

    You don't think this is political opinion? This is a clear slap at the Tea Party members. I find it strange that an author who correctly (implicitly) criticizes our nation's over-dependence on debt fueled consumption (which has resulted in unsustainable debt levels, downgrade, slow growth and currency debasement) would find fault with the only political movement in the US which has the courage to actually attempt to stop our rush into fiscal oblivion. You don't like the policies of spending restraint espoused by the Tea Party? Take a look at Europe to see how our current policies will play out.
    Aug 24 12:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Still On Its Way To $5,000 [View article]
    Marvin, you make many excellent points that I agree with but you undercut your credibility when you go off the rails and start spouting political opinions. I disagree with your apparent political views. However, I am not going to engage in argument with you because this site is focused on espousing investing insights and I suggest you do the same -- you obviously have good insights to share.
    Aug 23 03:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The Sell-Off To Pick Up This 6% Yielder [View article]
    Yes, the termination of the Cushing-Houston JV was announced today (I believe). I was shocked because all you read about is how much oil is bottled up in Cushing and needs access to the refiners or open market on the Gulf Coast. Announcement said they could not sign up customers on commercial terms that would support the economics of the pipeline. Has anyone heard any more about this (anyone in the industry for instance)?

    Disclosue: Long EPD and ETP
    Aug 22 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How and Why I Am Playing Apple in This Market [View article]
    FWIW data point -- my kid's middle school requires each student to have a Macbook.
    Aug 19 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Presidential candidate Perry's crack linking QE and treason may be little more than flowery language from the man who threatened Texas' secession awhile back, but Bruce Krasting believes the statement is likely to tie Bernanke's hands. "There will be no more from the Fed."  [View news story]
    Why would Bernanke give a sh*t what a long-shot Prez candidate says when he ignored the screams from elected and powerful Congressional & Senatorial officials? I'm not arguing whether he's been right or wrong -- just that the idea he's scared of Rick f-ing Perry is ridiculous.
    Aug 17 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An economic crisis of this magnitude demands leadership, writes David Gergen, as he calls on President Obama to lead the country. Gergen's roadmap: (1) stop campaigning for 90 days; (2) bring Congress back from vacation; (3) fill in the empty top spot at the CEA; (4) flush the anger and self-pity from the WH.  [View news story]
    Jesus didn't advocate redistribution at the point of a gun...he advocated charity.
    Aug 11 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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