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jd7

jd7
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  • Expect A Dismal 2014 For Angie's List [View article]
    J, thanks for your continued efforts on ANGI -- this stock is perhaps the foremost example in 2013 of the collective intellect of SA revealing the dire shortcomings of professional analysts' groupthink: mythical narratives, elaborate conflicts of interest, backward-looking price targets, and their lofty calling to become sycophantic cheerleaders, herding around bombastic price targets while regurgitating the spoon-fed management tales that obscure the foundational fact that they are all financially and ideologically invested in a terrible business model indeed.
    Jan 14 09:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Are you trolling us? Out of all technologies ever created by humans, ONVO's represents the foremost improvement to the human condition?
    Jan 7 12:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Most Wonderful Time Of The Year [View article]
    Sorry for the harsh tone here, but this is yet another SA article that ignores rudimentary probability theory. The probability of getting three heads in a row with a fair coin is 1/8th, and considerably more if it's unfair (say p = # of up months of the SP500 /36). Ascribing much significance to this three in a row pattern seems absurd.
    You're trying to be Victor Niederhoffer without mathematics, which strikes me as a disastrous combination.

    From another perspective - did valuation ever cross your mind when writing this? What are the odds it rises 70%, even 20%, this month on top of its current astronomical valuation? I'll give you a gold star if it flirts with 400.
    Jan 6 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Alpha In ALFA? [View article]
    I find ALFA intriguing, and I've recommended it to friends. However, I am suspicious of its performance during a bear market or a crash:

    From the prospectus:

    The Index can vary from being 100% long to up to 50% short, also known as “market hedged,” based on market volatility targets defined by the methodology. The Index, and therefore the Fund, may take a defensive position and become market hedged (i.e., short) if one or more broad-based market indices close below their respective 200 day moving average at the end of any month. Short positions are used to hedge long positions and to seek positive returns.

    I wish there was more data and explanation regarding that specific hedging strategy. I think the theoretical downside protection might be the most attractive part of ALFA. But I'm worried about its effectiveness in stormy weather.
    Dec 19 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Almost Free May Be Better Than Free In Consumer Reviews [View article]
    I admire your turnaround on ANGI in that it takes wisdom and humility to switch ideologies from the bearish to bullish mindset, because we know these mindsets can be all-consuming. However, besides valuation, the other risks ANGI carries haven't changed much (dilution, business model, competitive threats from ebay etc.).

    I follow this stock closely, and it often behaves contrary to the rest of the market. However, on truly panicky days, investors flee from ANGI. Thus, this seems like a poor stock to carry if you anticipate significant market corrections or disturbances, QE related or otherwise. Its now lower price does not represent a safe price.

    Before I'd go long, I'd want to see a significantly lower price and a management epiphany about the flaws in the business model and potential solutions.
    Nov 27 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Will Send TearLab Sharply Lower [View article]
    He was correct in that there was in fact an equity offering. However, the stock was pumped so vigorously (Cramer boosted the stock 10-15% at one point) that TearLab didn't need to issue equity at the low price he predicted.

    What justifies the stock doubling in price? Bullish reports from Craig-Hallum, who stood to profit from an equity offering? Jim Cramer's infinite wisdom and sagacity, indeed, Cramer's "experience" with TearLab in its former guise as OccuLogix before it went off a precipitous cliff?
    Nov 8 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Will Send TearLab Sharply Lower [View article]
    Excellent work on calling around and gauging interest. It's pretty much a given that despite Craig-Hallum's relentless pumping, and even a pump from Cramer, the stock will eventually come back to earth.

    However, I'm less certain about this quarter in particular. Since there has been poor adoption by doctors for some time now, it seems the only new piece of evidence for an earnings miss is the Jensen hire. It does make sense that he'll be useful to mitigate the damage and disappointment from TearLab's unprofitability. I agree with you here, but you have additional rationale for why this quarter (in particular) will be so ugly?
    Nov 8 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Underwater And Deteriorating Further [View article]
    What kind of industrial solvents is the stock huffing today? Yikes.
    Sep 20 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Unenviably Positioned In A Brutal Macro Environment [View article]
    Nice work on this article. That said, you are more cautious and conservative than most in making grand judgments and prediction's on ANGI's future. One key "risk factor", more imminent than the ones you mentioned, is that ANGI will simply run out of money this year.
    Aug 27 07:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IntelliPharmaCeutics - Primed For An Easy Double [View article]
    I'm new to IPCI and started doing my DD today. I have a few questions:

    1. Are there any recent valuations for the company that don't come from Brean, Maxim, or Roth? Since these sell-side firms have recently helped IPCI offer equity, their analyses aren't exactly objective. I'd be interested in seeing their NPV calculations if someone has access to them, though.

    2. Reading articles from 2011-12, you'd believe that IPCI would have multiple revenue streams already. It's great to compare Rexista and Remoxy, but the overall fate of their many generics seems critical. What do you attribute the delays to? Excessive optimism, management, or other factors?

    3. In your estimation, how imminent is the generic Focalin XR?
    Aug 22 09:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bassett Furniture: Now Is The Time To Buy [View article]
    Thank for this well-researched article. Bassett is doing well as a company; however, the stock suffers from under-coverage and hopefully your piece will improve that situation somewhat.
    Aug 20 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hudson Technologies: Imminent Catalysts Could Lead To 100% Upside In 12 Months [View article]
    Hi Alpha Bet,

    I'd be curious about your thoughts on the earnings call and your resulting assessment on how long it will take Hudson to "get back on track" with where it was in early 2013.

    Thanks!
    Jul 31 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Underwater And Deteriorating Further [View article]
    I'd be curious to hear people's thoughts on the stock's last 48 hours. Are big funds buying in now (of all times) because of the discount? I personally agree with the highly negative SA consensus on ANGI, but I'm struggling to put myself in the shoes of a big buyer reacting to the earnings release and call.
    Jul 26 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Accepts New Drug Application And Creates A Catalyst For Durect Corporation [View article]
    Thank you for stewing over the various studies and giving your honest opinion on BESST. I take it that you'll wait till the earnings call before trying another valuation, because of the question of whether to assign Remoxy a value of zero. If you add up the value per share of the cash, ALZET, and LACTLE, plus a reasonable expected value for Posidur, I believe that would show DRRX to be somewhat undervalued today -- however, not as undervalued as when Remoxy seemed to have decent short-term odds of success.
    Jun 21 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge Ruling A Big Win For MGT Capital [View article]
    Even though the markman date news is a few days old, it's apparent from looking at the MGT chart from 10-11am today that your article broke the news to a bunch of people.
    Jun 21 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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