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PeterPlan

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  • Is AMD Falling Into The Abyss? [View article]
    How is 32% a "healty gross margin" if it puts your net margin at -17%?
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Of The 3D Age: Intel, Micron And SanDisk Position For The Win [View article]
    I am not disagreeing with you. The schedule sounds realistic.
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Of The 3D Age: Intel, Micron And SanDisk Position For The Win [View article]
    Sure, just a reminder on how it's all about yield and economics. A year ago Intel had a laptop on stage with a 14nm chip up and running. Today we still don't have more than a handful of products in the market.
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Of The 3D Age: Intel, Micron And SanDisk Position For The Win [View article]
    Possible is not good enough. As William said it needs to be economic to make.

    Just like with TSMC's planar 20nm. It's clealy possible and shipping but questionable whether it makes much economic sense.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel FY 2015: Mid-Teen Earnings Growth Attainable [View article]
    RSA,

    I was being conservative with my calculations. Tax on capital gains is actually less than 25% because they don't tax the first 8000€ of your income if that is your only income. Maintenance of the apartment would be more than covered through renting out a room as I wouldn't want to live by myself.

    As for the rest I have already proven that I don't need more by happily living significantly below that budget for more than 4 years. The main differences between me and you in terms of spending seem to be:

    * Cars: I don't need one as I enjoy living in nice areas within larger European cities where you walk to buy groceries and everything else is within a 10 minute biking distance
    * Travel: For my trips I typically don't spend much more than what you spend only on souvenirs (on average significantly less than 500€)
    * Pets: No pets
    * Women: The feminist movement is strong in my generation. When I go on dates they always insist on splitting the bill or taking turns in ordering drinks. You can look generous by taking care of the first round and splitting in their favor. Sometimes you get to buy a girl dinner, but if you do it too often it would make er feel uncomfortable.
    * Cheaper health insurance
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel FY 2015: Mid-Teen Earnings Growth Attainable [View article]
    Interesting. This is my personal take on my retirement math: During the last 4 years I was living in Vienna working as a PhD student earning 1800€ a month after taxes and insurances.

    My lifestyle included:
    * Frequently going to bars and restaurants.
    * Inviting people over for dinner parties and poker or movie nights.
    * Playing sports multiple times a week (Squash, Tennis, Badminton, BJJ).
    * Multiple trips to other European countries including: Spain, France, Italy, Croatia, Germany, Czech Republic, England, Scotland, Iceland
    * Never saving money on food, cooking fancy dinners for me and my flatmate
    * Inviting the current girlfriend out for dinner every now and cooking for her

    Still I did not manage to spend all of my money and had an average savings rate of 300€ a month. I was earning more than I could spend on the things that I cared about.

    For retirement the only thing I would want to have differently would be to own a nice penthouse apparent in Berlin, which would cost 400.000€ and reduce my monthly spending by 650 euros (the rent I used to pay as a PhD student) and therefore reduce the income I would need to 850€. Just to be safe we could say that I would need 1200. Plus health and other insurances that would be 1500. For income I would invest in something like the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF that currently yields 2.67% or more like 2% after 25% tax. 1500€ * 12 / 0.02 = 900.000€. Add the apartment and we end up with 1.300.000€ or 1.6 million USD.
    Dec 3, 2014. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel FY 2015: Mid-Teen Earnings Growth Attainable [View article]
    4 million should last infinitely at an annual burn rate of 120-160K.

    What kind of lives do you guys intend to live that this would not be enough?
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: My Take On The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    Bruce,
    I did not mean to attack you, but I think you should listen to RSA:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    It's like in poker. Even when you are a long term winner and the bet you are currently making has positive expected value you are still gambling. The difference with stocks is that due to limited sample size and high complexity you can never know whether you are a long term winner or even whether the bet you are currently making has +EV. So be careful with your assumptions. In poker it typically takes more than 50.000 played hands to prove that you have a statistically significant probability of being a winning player.

    I don't have 5000 contracts, but own Intel stock and options worth half a million USD.
    Nov 30, 2014. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: My Take On The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    Eliminates Greed? Said the guy with (what I assume is) the majority of his retirement savings in stock options? This sounds seriously delusional to me.

    That being said I own a similar amount of Intel LEAPS but I am half your age so I am not gambling with retirement money.

    I still would consider myself a greedy bastard, but you sir are clearly worse! :)
    Nov 29, 2014. 06:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Valuation Analysis: Undervalued On Fundamentals [View article]
    It would be consistent with my own findings. I did my own DCF using similarly conservative assumptions yesterday and ended up with a present value of 42.89 per share :)
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel likely to rise 30% over next two years - Barron's [View news story]
    He goes by the name of Russ Fischer.
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:04 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: More Good News About The Mobile Losses [View article]
    Given the competitive situation with AMD being stuck at 28nm I would have expected the gross margin to increase in 2015 due to 14nm.

    But I am not entireley sure how this works out with startup cost and yield so maybe you are right. Thanks for the clue!
    Nov 21, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: More Good News About The Mobile Losses [View article]
    So how do you feel about the mobile losses after the investors meeting? Personally I was somewhat irritated by the guidance on gross margin. Would have expected it to be higher assuming a significant reduction in mobile losses.
    Nov 21, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip Technology: CEO Flubs A Warning Announcement [View article]
    I did.
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip Technology: CEO Flubs A Warning Announcement [View article]
    Same here, bought a bunch of $34 calls expiring on the 17th. Had been contemplating doing this for quite a while and this dip created the perfect opportunity :)
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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