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very_thirsty_for_income

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  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Dear James and Bert -Would one then presume that from UBS's perspective an MORL call is far from imminent- or that UBS is simply manipulating investors and would offer more MORL but think nothing of calling MORL. VTFI
    Jul 4, 2015. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Dear 31October:

    I was just wondering - if MORL drops to $6.00 then goes ex in July, Oct,Jan, Apr - would MORL be called at $5.00 due to a major dividend declaration ?

    Thanks, VTFI
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Dear James:

    I think that it is part of an investor's journey to break many (crystal) balls in the process of learning to become a more informed decision maker- it does make you grow stronger.

    Best, VTFI
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Dear James:

    I also think you can use AGNC as at least a partial proxy also, as I have discussed above.

    Regards, VTFI
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Dear Seattleview:

    This behavior is true for the major components of MORL. For example, AGNC had a similar pattern. The interim peaks and troughs for AGNC matched those of MORL ( they occurred at the same time)-- AGNC reached 36.77 and then declined to 18.84, rose back to 24.3 , reversed course and now broke through the last low and is forming ( ?? ) another low . If you overlay the two charts, the matching behavior for the timing of the peaks and troughs is very evident. Of course, since MORL is 2X, the effect is magnified in the percentage changes in the peaks and troughs.

    Therefore, your question can in turn be looked upon as why did AGNC, NLY perform in this manner over this time period given the market conditions that prevailed from 2012 until the present timeframe- the answer to this question I think relates to the basic metrics and management decisions which determine the performance of these mreits- interest rate spread, leverage , hedging, estimated reit taxable income, book value,dollar roll income. I think also some of the explanation is just simply the way wall street has regarded these investments- there has always been a strong conviction (especially since mid- 2013) that these investments are bad because " you lose principal faster than you accumulate dividends " - therefore the price performance has been continuing to decline as a result of the belief that this behavior will persist indefinitely.

    However,of course all investors' long-term objectives should play a principal role in determining what ultimately will play out . I maintain that mreits are cyclical and their price and dividends will always rise and fall- but in the long term mreits provide a good income stream especially if you consistently reinvest a portion of the dividends and add fresh money at regular intervals. The big question in the interim is how much lower and how rapidly will the major mreits drop and when will the bottom occur.

    Your plan is certainly a measured and sensible one and I wish you the best.

    Regards,

    VTFI
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after jobs; dollar falls [View news story]
    Dear Vivian:

    I only said that this is an investor's optimistic perception of the backdrop for corporate profitability. I personally believe that the economy , gdp and profits are going to be quite weak going forward as I believe that we are in a sustained disinflationary era where everything continues to be devalued ,driven by technology which is keeping prices low and displacing the workforce.

    VTFI
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures add to gains after jobs; dollar falls [View news story]
    It is good news from an investor's point of view. The markets are driven higher by the perception of the likelihood of sustained corporate profitability , continued low interest rates for borrowing and a strong dollar.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Dear James:

    I appreciate your article and I look forward to your future ones. It seems to me that AGNC as a major component of MORL is being much more severely sold off relative to the other components of MORL, and for that matter, many of the stocks in the mreit space. I wonder what is the underlying factor in this -- is it leverage, spread, anticipated dividend reductions?? This pattern really seems to be driving MORL downward, and MORL and AGNC stick out as the major daily declining merit investments this past week.

    Thanks again,

    VTFI
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs tumble as 10-year yield hits 2015 high [View news story]
    Dear Mevo,

    Here is the link:

    http://tinyurl.com/qf6...
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs tumble as 10-year yield hits 2015 high [View news story]
    Dear Cobeeman:

    I was wondering how much of the current drop in mreits is already a priced in panic drop ,so that by the time an announcement is made, mreit prices might be on the way up. I think its difficult to know where and when the bottoming is going to be nearly complete.

    VTFI
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs tumble as 10-year yield hits 2015 high [View news story]
    Dear Mevo:

    Its listed as an "sec filing" under investor relations. In any case,I found out that this is defnitely not a public offering ( why would AGNC do this at such a large discount to book value )but a periodic clarification regarding dividend reinvestment option with AGNC. I'll provide the link tomorrow.

    VTFI
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs tumble as 10-year yield hits 2015 high [View news story]
    I checked AGNC's website this morning and I noticed an SEC filing announcement for an offering of approx 22 million shares dated 6/26/2015. I wonder how to interpret the reasoning and significance of this filing. Did I read ths incorrectly? Thanks all.
    Jun 29, 2015. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Punishment continues for income favorites [View news story]
    Dear speculative:

    Sometimes some of the mreits drop the day before they go ex, as there is some selling on that day to avoid being taxed on a dividend distribution, and then buying back shares the day after to "capture" the reduced ex price- in an attempt to recover the dividend without paying tax on the dividend distribution -- this is an iffy procedure which I wouldn't attempt to engage in.

    MTGE, NLY, AGNC are going ex tomorrow. NLY and AGNC are major components of the mreit sector.

    The discounts to book value and the yields for these mreits are going to be so large tomorrow that hopefully there will be some buying back-- this happened with WMC which went ex today, (although WMC actually traded above its book value.). WMC's yield was 17.4% when the market opened today.

    Regards,VTFI
    Jun 25, 2015. 04:46 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Punishment continues for income favorites [View news story]
    WMC went ex today, so it was actually up 1.5%, not down 2.7%.
    Jun 25, 2015. 04:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Are MORL - And All mREITs - Doomed By Rising Rates? [View article]
    Dear Mr. Bjorkman:

    My current focus is definitely income and dividend income flow and I have learned through experience that patience and well defined strategies pay off tremendously. As long as stock prices recover in a cyclic pattern-- the worst thing is when a stock price declines 80% and never rebounds.

    Yours, VTFI
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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