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Grey Swan

Grey Swan
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  • Philip Morris Is Addicted To Dividend Increases [View article]
    Good article! Short and sweet and hits the key points. It certainly is a great stock with stellar management. I think the E-cigarettes could provide a new avenue to stimulate revenue growth. As good capital allocators, management may use some free cash flow to purchase these smaller yet booming E-cigarette players. However, hiking dividends, borrowing at reasonable levels, and repurchasing cheap shares is just fine in the meantime.
    Sep 10 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Market Is Not Done Falling [View article]
    Good article. I have been waiting for years for their valuation to come down. I think their management team is second to none so if they come down a little more then I am a buyer. The next bear market may be the ultimate time to buy them. Who knows when that will be though? Thank you for your price targets as well. Put strategies work well in situations like these.
    May 8 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crown Holdings: Profiting From Your Summer BBQ [View article]
    Great article! I sold CCK last year and like it between 40-45. There Starbev acquisition was highly accretive. There annuity like stream of long term contracts is a great business as a large portion of earnings are all but guaranteed. Good defensive play with a nice yield in the current market environment as well.
    Mar 31 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Haemonetics Is A Steal At This Level [View article]
    Great summary! Thank you.
    Mar 3 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dalio: No gas left in QE tank [View news story]
    Tail wag the dog policy: Fed gooses asset prices first to boost employment/ growth rather than foster a stable environment that produces healthy employment and wages that in turn boost asset prices. Completely backwards.
    Nov 11 03:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    Volte-Face: Great article and wonderful responses to the message board. People get extremely fired up when their picks are targeted in an article. You clearly have done your research so good luck with future angry messages.
    Nov 11 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical Market Saturation Could Be Brief [View article]
    Good article. Another good point is that @55% of their revenue is now recurring. Hospitals can't just call anybody to service the Da Vinci machines. New parts, updated technology within the Da Vinci etc. bring a nice little annuity like annual stream to ISRG. I still think they have some room in low penetrated areas like colorectal etc. Great company with an unbelievable moat. Agree that $350-$400 is not a bad entry point for the long haul.
    Sep 9 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCI Group: Inadequate Reinsurance Coverage Poses Potentially Catastrophic Risks To Shareholders, Policyholders And Taxpayers [View article]
    Great article. I live in Tampa so that is very helpful info. Insider dealings + acquisition binge definitely tells me to stay away. Looks like a pretty tame hurricane season on the horizon though. Massive daily rainstorms have lowered Gulf waters quite a bit. Lower temperatures will make hurricanes less prone to gathering strength when entering the Gulf. That could change with late summer temps though. Regardless, I will look for other investment ideas. Thank you.
    Sep 5 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Up 40%, Another 35% More To Come To Shareholders [View article]
    I like the deal as a MSFT shareholder. I agree price should be much higher viewed from the Nokia side. Agree that doubtful this goes through. Good article.
    Sep 3 12:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Liquidation Value Far Lower Than Bulls Thought [View article]
    Just reading your article. Very timely given the August news on JCP. Great article and very well written and not as long and drawn out as most of Seeking Alpha.
    Aug 21 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Producers Look Expensive Even After Plunge [View article]
    I thought it potash was only 30%
    Aug 6 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: Sell-Off Provides Attractive Entry Point For Long Term Investors [View article]
    Good points on the headwinds. I agree. But also think there are more growth avenues than people think. Also believe that much of the headwinds are already baked into the stock price. That is why I will dip my toe in. Sometimes helps me follow the company a little closer.
    Jul 10 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: Sell-Off Provides Attractive Entry Point For Long Term Investors [View article]
    I would wait till more clarity in a week for their conference call. I do like the fact that almost 60% of revenue is now recurring instead of first time $1-$2 million dollar sales for the actual system. Parts replacement, servicing etc. is a nice annuity like revenue stream. They do have plenty of room to room in other areas especially colorectal, general, and pediatric surgery. Agreed that they are overweight in prostatectomy and hystorectomy so let's see if they can't make up for it by increasing revenue in other areas while increasing recurring as well. This is where a detailed study of management is key to see how they are efficiently deploying capital in their R&D departments and general strategy. I ISRG under $400 but I have passed too many times before so will dip my toes in here.
    Jul 10 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: Sell-Off Provides Attractive Entry Point For Long Term Investors [View article]
    Maybe best is to start tiptoeing in. Let's say you want to allocate $100,000 to ISRG then start with $25,000 here. I think this is a decent entry point but if you think it has room to go lower then grab a little here and more later.
    Jul 9 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panic In China: Malinvestment, Deflation, And The Next Emerging Market Crisis [View article]

    I have followed Chanos, Jim Grant etc. and the China "bubble" for a while now. I think your article is excellent! Well done.
    Jun 24 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment