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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • Losing Confidence In MannKind [View article]
    From prior reading, and statements out of MannKind, there are approximately 4.5 million US diabetics currently utilizing RAA insulin, with approximately 30% of those who dread the need for their current injections, and you can pretty much guess the remaining 70%, while they may have grown to accept the necessity without dread, don't exactly look forward to the discomfort and inconvenience involved. There are also approx. 6 million diabetics who are seriously failing to control their BG levels with orals alone....obviously these are T2s - my guess is a large percentage of these individuals will welcome the opportunity to achieve control using Afrezza while avoiding injections. Afrezza will be priced comparably to insulin pens....so where pens are paid for in Europe, Afrezza should also be covered - apparently Sanofi isn't worried since the latest I heard is they expect European approval in 2017 or sooner.
    Dec 5, 2014. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Confidence In MannKind [View article]
    My comment appears to have been deleted by SA, likely at the request of the author -

    SNY has recently stated they project $6.2 billion in US revenue from Afrezza, MNKD CFO has stated their partnership deal equates to a "mid-twenty" percent revenue split falling to MNKD. So, 25% of $6 billion is $1.5 billion.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Confidence In MannKind [View article]
    *Noticed you or SA deleted my response - so I will try again.

    Wow, a rather sparse article, if you can even call it that....did you even bother to check on the increasing short interest? How about mentioning that recently Sanofi provided their projections that Afrezza will pull in roughly $6.2 billion on just their primary US target population of 3.1 million US diabetics?

    MNKD's CFO M. Pfeffer has stated the recent deal with Sanofi is equivalent to a mid-twenty percent revenue split for MNKD. Thus, assuming SNY knows the diabetes/insulin market reasonably well and their projections are relatively accurate, the $6.2 billion equates to roughly $1.5 billion (in time) to MNKD, again assuming Mr. Pfeffer's comments are accurate. Taking that $1.5 billion (just US sales btw), and applying a revenue multiple of 15 results in $22.5 billion....now dividing by 450 million shares results in a share price of $50. Assuming Sanofi's target population capture is achieved by say 2019 (and I expect it will actually be achieved much sooner), and applying a 15% annual discount results in a NPV for MNKD shares of roughly $26.

    We can likely expect Afrezza to be available in Europe sometime in 2017, if not sooner, so one can make their own assumptions about how those sales will add to the figures presented here re. MNKD's projected share price from US sales, and then there is the ROW (rest of world) sales above and beyond US and Europe to figure in.

    *Of course were one to utilize a P/Rev multiple of say 20 instead of 15 (keep in mind that MNKD won't be paying taxes for quite awhile and the use of fast or rapid acting insulin is increasing at roughly 10% annually) then these share price figures can be adjusted upward 25% resulting in a NPV of MNKD shares of $32.50

    The above share price projections don't even consider the roughly $900 million (from memory) in milestone payments which MNKD will receive from Sanofi over the coming few years, nor is any value ascribed to the Technosphere platform...though Matt Pfeffer has recently indicated that in February he expects to update shareholders on a couple of potential opportunities in this area.

    So honestly, if your 'confidence is fading' of late, maybe it is simply because you don't know how to perform proper due diligence.

    Personally, I consider a stock selling for 75% discount to NPV, with multiple irons in the fire soon to be announced, a Screaming Buy - but that's just me; maybe you should place your bets with CDs or maybe in US Treasury Bonds since biotech is definitely no place for lightweights who lose their confidence every time a short interest spike causes their stock to drop a bit, or an insider executes a planned sale for that matter.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Confidence In MannKind [View article]
    Sanofi has recently stated their projections for US sales of Afrezza to be $6.2 billion. MNKD's CFO has stated the profit sharing deal with Sanofi is equivalent to a 'mid-twenty' percent revenue split (25%). 25% of $6.2 billion is ~ $1.5 billion. As I stated, these projections are dependent on the accuracy of the statements coming from Sanofi and MNKD's CFO - if the deal results in less the 25% falling to MNKD, say it actually works out to 22.5%, then of course the projections would have to be reduced by a corresponding percentage (in this example 25% vs say 22.5%...the NPV reduction would be 10%). We can only project ballpark figures at this time since we have been given so little to go on and of course sales haven't even commenced.
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Confidence In MannKind [View article]
    Wow, a rather sparse article, if you can even call it that....did you even bother to check on the increasing short interest? How about mentioning that recently Sanofi provided their projections that Afrezza will pull in $roughly $6.2 billion on just their primary US target population of 3.1 million US diabetics?

    MNKD's CFO M. Pfeffer has stated the recent deal with Sanofi is equivalent to a mid-twenty percent revenue split for MNKD. Thus, assuming SNY knows the diabetes/insulin market reasonably well and their projections are relatively accurate, the $6.2 billion equates to roughly $1.5 billion (in time) to MNKD, again assuming Mr. Pfeffer's comments are accurate. Taking that $1.5 billion (just US sales btw), and applying a revenue multiple of 15 results in $22.5 billion....now dividing by 450 million shares results in a share price of $50. Assuming Sanofi's target population capture is achieved by say 2019 (and I expect it will actually be achieved much sooner), and applying a 15% annual discount results in a NPV for MNKD shares of roughly $26.

    We can likely expect Afrezza to be available in Europe sometime in 2017, if not sooner, so one can make their own assumptions about how those sales will add to the figures presented here re. MNKD's projected share price from US sales, and then there is the ROW (rest of world) sales above and beyond US and Europe to figure in.

    *Of course were one to utilize a P/Rev multiple of say 20 instead of 15 (keep in mind that MNKD won't be paying taxes for quite awhile and the use of fast or rapid acting insulin is increasing at roughly 10% annually) then these share price figures can be adjusted upward 25% resulting in a NPV of MNKD shares of $32.50

    The above share price projections don't even consider the roughly $900 million (from memory) in milestone payments which MNKD will receive from Sanofi over the coming few years, nor is any value ascribed to the Technosphere platform...though Matt Pfeffer has recently indicated that in February he expects to update shareholders on a couple of potential opportunities in this area.

    So honestly, if your 'confidence is fading' of late, maybe it is simply because you don't know how to perform proper due diligence.

    Personally, I consider a stock selling for 75% discount to NPV, with multiple irons in the fire soon to be announced, a Screaming Buy - but that's just me; maybe you should place your bets with CDs or maybe in US Treasury Bonds since biotech is definitely no place for lightweights who lose their confidence every time a short interest spike causes their stock to drop a bit, or an insider executes a planned sale for that matter.
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:01 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Allied Nevada Earnings Show The Company Is In Serious Trouble [View article]
    Exactly....well put.
    Nov 5, 2014. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing North America's 3 Largest Silver Companies [View article]
    Nice work Joseph - appreciate the effort. Personally, hoping for a bit further weakness in silver before jumping in.
    Nov 5, 2014. 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Medusa Mining Provides An Updated Production Guidance [View article]
    >>Even though the company isn’t extremely expensive (anymore) I’d prefer to invest in companies in safer regions if the cost will indeed be $1000/oz.<<

    Okay, so would you be willing to share your favorites at this time?
    Nov 4, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Favorite Gold And Silver Potential Takeover Candidates (Part 1) [View article]
    I think AUY is a no-brainer at roughly $4.....could it drop a good bit lower in the short run - of course, especially with that just announced serious miss, but any outfit on the prowl for acquisition has to have added AUY to the list.
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Is Now For Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Simply an outstanding piece of work Steve -
    Oct 30, 2014. 07:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insuline: Significant Upside, Alternative Diabetes Play With A Population Based Cost-Reduction Platform In Diabetes [View article]
    We think the suggestion of SNY sandbagging Afrezza promotion & MNKD shares thus likely remaining static over the coming years is absolutely absurd. First off, Afrezza compliments the offerings of Sanofi, and the simple fact that no other RAA insulin so closely matches the workings of a healthy pancreas argues for widespread acceptance.

    As for concerns regarding... "low visibility on physicians' willingness to prescribe and try Afrezza before long term outcomes trials are completed" - apparently you were unaware of this survey:

    "Diabetes In Control” Medical Professional Survey Recommends Afrezza
    - January 28, 2014

    *Obviously this survey was pre-Afrezza approval...note that the AdCom vote recommending FDA approval was 27 to 1 - and that the AdCom was made up of physicians and diabetic experts.

    "Below is the results of a poll on their website, that asks the question: “Will you recommend MannKind's inhaled insulin Afrezza, if approved?” Poll results: 67.9% vote YES, they will recommend Afrezza 26.4% vote NOT SURE only 5.7% vote NO The poll may be found by doing a google search using the question asked (see above). Below is further information about “Diabetes In Control”: – Quoting from their site: “The Mission of Diabetes In Control is to be the world leader of current and accurate on-line diabetes information for medical professionals, and to promote increased understanding of the care and treatment of diabetes, ultimately helping the medical professional to empower the patient to better self-care.” – ISMP, the Institute for Safe Medication Practices”, has established a partnership with “Diabetes In Control”. ISMP “is the nations only 501c (3) nonprofit organization devoted entirely to medication error prevention and safe medication use. ISMP represents over 35 years of experience in helping healthcare practitioners keep patients safe, and continues to lead efforts to improve the medication use process. The organization is known and respected worldwide as the premier resource for impartial, timely, and accurate medication safety information.” – Quoting Steven V. Edelman, MD, Founder, Taking Control of Your Diabetes (TCOYD), and 2009 ADA Diabetes Educator of the Year: “I appreciate what Steve Freed, Dave Joffe, and Andrew Young are doing at Diabetes in Control to keep timely and important information easily at the fingertips of providers caring for those with diabetes. Those that think, the medical community is not already starting to promote Afrezza, need to think again… "

    *Attribution - the above content is taken directly from a 10/12/14 posting by 'kevinmik' on the YHOO MNKD board.

    So it seems your contentions regarding MNKD's Afrezza are quite flawed. As regards Insuline Medicals's product - time will tell.
    Oct 28, 2014. 05:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How MannKind Long Investors Can Profit From Short Raids [View article]
    Unfortunately, I do not have this. Read of this quite awhile back, but will try and find a reference.
    Oct 28, 2014. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How MannKind Long Investors Can Profit From Short Raids [View article]
    Surveys indicate, just in the US, there are roughly 1.5M current RAA (Rapid Acting Analog..Afrezza) users who have expressed absolute disdain for their 'injection' regimen; my guess is most of the remaining ~ 70% Wouldn't be described as looking forward to injections.

    Now it is a pretty safe bet that most of these individuals will be highly motivated, as in calling their physicians within months (more likely weeks) of Afrezza availability, to request an Afrezza RX and make the switch away from injections. But let's be conservative and just take 1M of this ~ 1.5M group (some of course will be smokers or have pulmonary conditions which preclude Afrezza use) - taking this group and figuring say $1700 annual cost for Afrezza (some have guesstimated the actual figure at closer to $2,000) results in ~ $1.7B annual revenue to Sanofi. The partnership deal btwn SNY and MNKD is apparently roughly equivalent to a 'mid-20%' revenue take for MNKD (per MNKD's CFO Matt PFeffer), but let's again be a bit conservative and figure 22%....this results in approx. $375M falling to MNKD from just this highly motivated (to switch from injections) group. Now this group is just US RAA users who absolutely hate to inject...now figure in those who just don't wish to keep injecting when there is a superior alternative which doesn't involve any pain what-so-ever, then figure in similar groups ex-US (of course this will take a bit of time depending on how quickly SNY can get ROW approval). But wait....there is more - remember that studies indicate RAA Insulin use is increasing at roughly 10% annually. And of course don't forget those juicy milestone payments totaling ~ $900M flowing to MNKD as Afrezza users accumulate. And then of course there is the Technosphere platform. And then there is that large group of roughly 6 to 7 million diabetics (again US only) which are currently achieving very poor control with oral meds alone, not to mention the huge group of 75M-plus 'prediabetics' (again just US) who might actually be able, with Afrezza use, to stop their 'condition' from advancing to full-blown diabetes.

    Hmmmm.....greatly reduced need for refrigeration, elimination of injection pain and inconvenience, efficacy which closely mimics that of a healthy pancreas, reduction of the dreaded and potentially fatal hypo-attack (when Afrezza use is optimized - *go ahead and argue shorts but the reduction is genuine per actual Afrezza trial participants, even if FDA refused to acknowledge it).....oh, it is a real tough decision!

    Can you say 'Absolute Blockbuster' (this will be very hard for those short).....for the shorts I recommend starting with the phrase 'Significantly Increasing Revenues for Years to Come'.

    *And from what I am hearing, MNKD is already working on follow-up products and licenses utilizing the Technosphere platform.

    One almost feels sorry for the shorts.....almost like taking candy from a baby - well not quite that bad, but close. Easiest, safest, bet in biotech going.
    Oct 28, 2014. 01:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India picks Israeli anti-tank missile over U.S. model [View news story]
    Congratulations to Israel - I absolutely love it when Israel/Rafael manages to produce a superior product and then can actually win out in the market place as well. The growing ties which are evident between India and Israel is a thing of interest and I think a very fortunate developing trend; the less Israel is reliant and thus controlled by Washington the better for Israel.
    Oct 26, 2014. 06:39 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NewLink Genetics Takes A Shot At Combating Deadly Ebolavirus Infections: Diversification Strategy? [View article]
    I figured it was the same....how many are they likely to have? Anyway, bought on that same news blip....only stock wasn't reacting at first, was really puzzled. Came back and see a 23% spike! Back in the price channel and hopefully follow-thru takes us at least back to recent resistance. Future is quite bright for NLNK, and if they can deliver on the Ebola vaccine, future will be extremely bright. Now if only the Big Money would decide to trigger a long-overdue short squeeze in MNKD; its getting close!
    Oct 13, 2014. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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