Seeking Alpha

in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View in4thelonghaul's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Forbes Thinks Molycorp Is Oversold, Here Is Why They're Wrong [View article]
    Bravo Jesus, but I would of bet that Jesus Romeros was a Latino name - LOL

    A 'former' miner since you were 17...hmmm - And it's is a 'proud' black man btw..... ; )
    Sep 11 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Moving From Short To Long? [View article]
    Indeed, this is possible... would love to see a short squeeze of monumental proportions, but there is a good deal of time for shorty to have his way before those early sales figures are made available to us. I do think if MNKD's major holders would stop loaning out shares to the shorts, and instead accelerate their accumulation, we could have a different ballgame even before those first sales figures are made available. Are you expecting we will get preliminary figures by Feb/March?
    Aug 25 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Moving From Short To Long? [View article]
    Congratulations on a prescient call to the short side...no use arguing about that.

    In addition to a powerful and aggressive short position, I think MNKD's recent severe correction had much more to do with disappointment regarding the Sanofi deal structure overall - insultingly low upfront cash payment, no equity stake, lack of transparency regarding specific Sanofi game plan, possible dissatisfaction with the percentage split or milestone payments, initial confusion involving eventual reimbursement for Afrezza development, etc - than over optimistic retail euphoria.

    I personally don't feel the retail expectations regarding the BP deal were unrealistic given Afrezza's tremendous commercial potential, the supposed aggressive BP interest which was alluded to by MNKD, and the time spent by Greenhill working on achieving the best deal. Myself and colleagues felt the absolute minimum upfront cash infusion would be $300 million, and most expected $500 million. I still think that expectation, along with an equity stake by Sanofi, were realistic expectations which would have resulted in a share price rise towards $16 as the very significant short position began to cover; if nothing else, a floor of $10 would have been established.

    Regardless, the deal which emerged provided the perfect tailwind for the short cabal to capitalize on, which they did with renewed gusto.

    Realistic expectations or irrational exuberance aside - you made the right call.

    I personally would like to see the recently tested 200dma retested and hold during further market weakness, before I am convinced the recent share price downside is all in the past. Of course if this teflon market continues to power up past S&P 2000, with short share percentages diminishing for MNKD, then once again you likely will have called the proper inflection point.

    George Rho's (SA contributor) expectation of Afrezza sales reaching the $4 billion mark by 2018/2019 (from memory here) seem reasonably conservative, and with varying discounts applied, sans a serious, long overdue, market downturn in the next 6 months, I get a 1-year share price target of $12 to $16; throw in that market correction anytime soon, and I think the shorts will have no problem covering at $6 or below.
    Aug 25 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Hi Jeff....thanks for your thoughtful reply - greatly appreciate your prior coverage of MNKD.

    My disappointment aside, indeed, I can only assume MNKD/Greenhill got the best deal which Sanofi was willing to provide.
    Aug 25 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Yes George, the short interest has gone up... it has been obvious from the daily shares available for borrow, at increasing interest, coupled with the bi-weekly reports, that the shorts were significantly and steadily increasing their already very large bet - it isn't rocket science; truly don't understand why my contention so bothers you. As for my insinuation that this increase of an already extremely aggressive short position, heading into what all expected to be a share price elevating BP deal announcement, is likely indicative of some unsavory foreknowledge by the shorts....really? Such activity paints the shorts as either stupid (something they (as in large short hedge funds) are rarely not guilty of), foolishly reckless akin to one playing chicken with an oncoming freight train, or my contention - you don't have to agree, just an observation on a public forum.

    As for my comment to MS11791 regarding his apparent contention that the paltry upfront payment will help bring Afrezza to its full potential much more quickly, it was simply that, a request for elucidation as it is something I totally disagree with. You act as though my request incensed you for some reason.

    As for use of the $6 figure, or the increased potential for MNKD shares to drop to that figure (or below in a serious market correction)....that is just the next obvious support were shares to drop below the 200dma, nothing more; my criticism as it relates to the deal structure was that with very little additional expense MNKD shares would have likely never fallen below $10, and might easily have risen to $12 or $14.

    Do I honestly think that a company "with some $12 billion in annual cash flow cares about the $20 million? There is no way to know for certain, but judging by their reluctance to provide what I have termed as a truly win/win deal for MNKD, I do suspect that they were, and thus likely continue to play a very rough game with MNKD.

    You make the comment that I 'go on endlessly' about what MNKD should've done and what you should've done or shouldn't have done, with very little basis for anything'....I made one comment/criticism to you regarding your article (and it was based on my missing something, which I readily apologized for - even going back and quoting your remark). As for going on endlessly about what MNKD should have done, or for that matter what Sanofi 'should' have done - you yourself have expressed disappointment, at least initially, with the size of the upfront payment as well as the lack of transparency surrounding the milestone payments....but I guess if YOU acknowledge such short comings with the deal or subsequent transparency provided, well that's just different?
    As for very little basis....we will just have to disagree on that - but the market's reaction to the deal tends to validate my criticisms.

    You admonish me to be happy in the face of what I perceive as a very inadequate deal for MNKD and its shareholders....maybe we just have different 'recovery' periods; possibly related to the differing sizes of our MNKD holdings. My intent wasn't to fortuitously escape a significant negative market reaction to this long awaited BP partnership deal.

    Anyway....live long and prosper - reality is what it is.
    Aug 25 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Of course they will be accumulating.....the only question is do they start from the current $7 area, or do they wait in hopes that the shorts get a broad-market tailwind which affords the opportunity of accumulation under $6.

    You have made the observation that MNKD obviously knew that this deal would be received poorly, you must also realize that Sanofi was also quite aware of the exceptional deal they had made and thus its likely impact on MNKD share price; nice that you don't really care where MNKD shares are at over the short term, but many retail are not so fortunate - many held from the recent highs, never expecting such a poor deal with such a lack of transparency to even cushion the blow....I mean the insinuations from Al's previous few comments were that shareholders would be quite impressed with the eventual deal. I consider myself extremely lucky in that I sold on the AH's spike, fully cognizant of how this deal would be received - many retail were not so fortunate, especially those who had accumulated near-term options. Another item which strikes me as obvious...the shorts almost certainly knew ahead of time how poorly this deal would be received - nobody doubles down with such boldness the way they did in the weeks leading up to the announcement without having some information which they shouldn't have had.

    On another note.....thanks for the early coverage - your reports likely got a lot of people into MNKD at around $3, even less; hoping you can find another 'early' biotech with similar potential...I have been accumulating NWBO for awhile and just recently began with CLSN
    Aug 24 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    And exactly 'how' would a reasonable upfront cash payment, vs the 'blood in the water' one they received, have hindered Afrezza from reaching its full potentially as quickly as the deal they received.....if you don't mind elucidating a bit.
    Aug 24 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Allied Nevada Gold Second Quarter Edition [View article]
    Regardless the strengths and weaknesses of specific valuation metrics - the simple fact is that ANV "currently" struggles to produce positive Free Cash Flow with gold around $1300 - Hebba, utilizing this "all-in-cost" metric appears merely to provide a more accurate big-picture view of true costs....as far as I can see, 'current' true costs. He is quite upfront about the methodology....even stating: "Ultimately, this analysis is best used as a first step to further investigative work, and that is our purpose with releasing this series." Personally, I value the effort and insight offered from the analysis, while I understand this 'all-in' approach is just a tool, one tool, to be used in a process of evaluation. It really is up to the individual investor to understand the tool, and I find no attempt by the author to disguise, or mislead.....just the opposite in fact.
    Aug 24 12:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    My apologies George, was rushed - you did indeed express your view that the $150 million upfront "obviates any cash worries for the foreseeable future and....." - As for lowering my expectations....indeed, with Greenhill on the job for a year-plus, and considering at least one statement from Al regarding how the deal likely would be received, I did expect more; a little bit more would have made a big difference. Unfortunately, IMO, this deal allows a 'dead-money' anchor to be hung on MNKD for the next 6 to 8 months, and if by chance the broad market decides to finally roll over hard during this time, Shorty, sans a supporting equity stake by Sanofi, has the wind at his back to drop MNKD's share price to $6, if not lower, and that with almost certain relative ease. Short Interest out on 8/26 should give us a good indication on the short gameplan, but I suspect their aim is to take us further down before covering; it didn't have to be, and hopefully it won't be.

    Anyway, thanks for the article (lots of interesting facts) and the continuing coverage of MNKD. BTW, using your figures, with discounts applied, my calculations put MNKD's fair price at approx. $16 currently.
    Aug 20 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Thanks George for the article - but honestly it isn't quite up to what I have come to expect from you.

    Not hard to go ahead and apply say a ballpark discount rate of say 17%. In consideration of the insultingly absurd and paltry upfront $150M, you didn't address whether you expect a dilutive capital raise will now be required. What is your opinion of Sanofi providing the $175M line of credit (expected MNKD's 35% of the launch costs) at 8% interest? My view is that $175M is the bare minimum and should have been $300M at 3% interest. Why was there no equity stake, say 5% at $10(?) worked into the deal, something which likely would have gone a long long way towards dislodging the huge and intransigent short position by sending a giant indicator of Sanofi's confidence in this joint venture?

    It is my contention that this deal was a giant win for Sanofi, which granted should motivate them to give it their absolute best promotional effort, but a rather marginal deal for MNKD; the most annoying aspect of this partnership deal is that Sanofi could have easily, read that as very little additional expense to them, made this a giant win/win home run for MNKD and of course their shareholdrers, a deal which would have seen the shorts stampeding for the exits. Really, 8% interest on the $175 million dollar upfront loan!??

    It would have been pocket change for Sanofi to offer the barest expected upfront payment of $300 million, and it wouldn't have really been a big deal, in the long run, to offer $500 million upfront - I mean they walked in and gained 65% profit of something which cost over $2 billion and 10 years to develop and shepherd through the FDA gauntlet....a treatment which is likely to eventually produce annual revenues in excess $7 billion, possibly way in excess if they can make serious inroads into the pre-diabetic market of approx. 85 million persons in just the US alone.

    Sanofi appears to have risked little, and their reluctance to make this a truly win/win deal, a homerun for both companies, sent a blaring "No Confidence" indication to WS in general, and put no pressure on the short position what-so-ever......they saved so little by being so stingy - it is a genuine shame.
    Aug 20 01:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Well put....I would only say that it 'could' be as low as $2, or as high as $20 - depending on where it is trading on the 14th (at least on the high estimate).
    Jun 27 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Thanks for your article Debra...

    You stated: "EvaluatePharma, a provider of market intelligence on life sciences companies, reports that the consensus sales estimate for AFREZZA is near $600 million per year. That implies a sales multiple of 16.6 to reach a market cap near $10 billion (I am assuming all debt is converted and there is no excess cash). That hardly seems plausible."

    Personally, I suspect that at least 1 in 10 insulin dependent US diabetics will pretty much be calling their physicians requesting a switch to Afrezza right out of the gate at product launch; if true, Afrezza sales will achieve over $800 million annual sales on that alone....and that is predicated on just 10% of those already utilizing prandial insulin in their treatment regimen. So one can see that your cited figure of $600M annual sales likely represents an implausibly low market capture projection. My estimates put likely sales of Afrezza at $850 million by Q3/Q4 2015...a roughly 10% (US only) market capture, to be followed by another 10% market capture by Q2/2016; global market capture will likely lag US sales of course, and be dependent on a BP partner, but I would expect similar adoption rates from Europe & ROW to follow upon Afrezza availability in their respective regions.

    My estimate is for Afrezza to eventually capture at least 40% of the global prandial insulin market, and I think 60% is achievable in time - this is of an overall market which 'unfortunately' (well not for MNKD investors) appears to be expanding at roughly a 12% annual rate.

    *BTW...considering the positive effect on margin of MNKD's significant tax loss carryforward and their already expensed insulin in storage, a P/S ratio of 17 to 18 is quite reasonable. PCYC, with under $400M in revenue, sports a 17.5 P/S ratio, and I expect MNKD's margins and growth to easily exceed those of PCYC for many years to come.
    Jun 27 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflection Point For Stem Cells: An Interview With Advanced Cell Technology's Management [View article]
    Looking like WS considers STEM the new front-runner to beat in the AMD race.
    Jun 19 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short MannKind On Afrezza Approval? [View article]
    Highly unlikely, sans a very unfavorable/cumbersome label, that Al would even consider selling MNKD for anything under $40 p/sh - and even then, considering his past statements re. his views on the value of Afrezza, he likely would only 'consider' a $40 acquisition offer long enough get a good laugh with family and mngt. Professional surveys indicate Afrezza's potential to capture 40% of the prandial insulin market within 3 to 4 years...that is a market which apparently in increasing about 10% annually on a global basis; and then there is the value of the 'technosphere' platform which Afrezza approval will have totally validated.
    May 28 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Provectus: Strong Sell, Ties To Paid Stock Promoters, SEC Halt Risk, Price Target $0 [View article]
    Gee.....I thought Apple began operations out of a residential garage? Silly me!

    Oh, and isn't it odd that PVCT's PV-10 has achieved, at a couple of the most prestigious cancer research/treatment centers in the US, an amazing record of efficacy for advanced recurrent melanoma in patients who have failed multiple other treatments....think the ORR is over 50%! That is better than anything ever approved by FDA - these patients are approaching death's door with no options left, and here comes a treatment which achieves such results and even has a positive systemic effect on distant untreated tumors! Just odd that a 'scam' treatment, by a 'scam' company could achieve such results.....guess Moffitt, St. Lukes, M.D. Anderson are all involved in the scam - yeah, that explains it! ASCO guys must be involved too!! Boy what a 'service' you have provided with this article....your momma must be proud.
    May 22 09:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
248 Comments
377 Likes