in4thelonghaul

17 Comments

    • ON: Sun Sep 14th 16:14 PM
      Commented on:
      Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom
      That was supposed to read BIIB & ELN....NOT "BIIG"....Bi... and Elan.
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    • ON: Sun Sep 14th 15:54 PM
      Commented on:
      Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom
      Another factor involved in the motivation of BP to acquire smaller developmental biotechs, besides existing drugs and the pipeline, is the repatriation of huge amounts of cash currently being held overseas as well as the debt which these biotechs have accrued over the years...these can be directly applied as tax deductions to BP.

      A few examples of likely acquisitions are BIIG & ELN for the Tysabri franchise and the attractive pipeline.

      Dendreon (DNDN) is another independent biotech which BP has been closely watching; their lead candidate 'Provenge', for the treatment of end-stage prostate cancer, has multi-billion dollar potential not to mention the incredible value of their cassette technology which may hold promise for multiple types of cancer. Results of the interim evaluation for Provenge are expected in October...if sufficiently positive, Provenge could receive an FDA decision by 1Q09. Considering DNDN's SPA with FDA, seems highly likely that numerous BP players will be tripping over one another to either cinch a ROW partnership with Dendreon or make an outright acquisition upon very positive interim results. Upon positive interim, DNDN's sh/pr could easily reach $25.00 as it did once before following the FDA's Advisory Committee results in 2007. In the event of interim results only sufficient to guarantee trial continuation to its likely 2009 conclusion, the high short interest, stable financial base (for a bio-tech), healthy inst. support, plus incredible prior efficacy indications are likely to insure a sh/pr floor of approx. $3.00...where it will be the opportunity of a lifetime.

      GNVC is another small biotech whose upcoming results with TNFerade could create an overnight 5-bagger or trigger a buyout offer...at $1.35sh the risk/reward seems highly favorable considering the pipeline and past preliminary indications of efficacy.
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    • ON: Sun Aug 17th 14:13 PM
      Commented on:
      5 Potential Buyout Targets in Biotech - Barron's
      I would add to that list BIIB...considering the absurd sh/pr hit which Biogen has taken on Tysabri and the fact that Carl Icahn is accumulating. ELN is of course caught up in the same recent events and is also a prime target for acquisition by either Wyeth (WYE) or Biogen Idec (BIIB).

      Add Dendreon (DNDN) to the list if their interim analysis of Provenge (October estimate) for end-stage prostate cancer is sufficiently positive to allow for immediate trial cessation and refiling of BLA...I would give them roughly a 75% chance of sufficient success at the interim btw.
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    • ON: Mon Aug 4th 14:54 PM
      Commented on:
      Elan Corp.: Bounce on Goldman Positivity?
      Post below from the IV ELN board...think about its implications.

      "apoe4 carrier status and VE, efficacy measures put differently
      this is a repost with a correction

      apoe4 carrier status and VE, efficacy measures put differently
      been further exploring the data, and trying to get out of what I can

      these snippets may be of use to people

      the occurrence of vasogenic oedema was not statistically associated with carrier status (10 carriers vs 2 non-carriers, compared with 72 carrier vs 47 noncarrier treated patients, p=0.2). Therefore I reject that association. It is however, highly correlated with dose and statistically significant

      for those who are concerned about efficacy I have calculated a % reduction in decline using the 0.5mg dose of completers (e4- and e4) and converted the difference to placebo scores over all doses to a % reduction estimated from performance of e4- placebo. This comparison if anything should be conservative as e4 carriers are thought to decline a bit faster and historically the e4- seemed to decline a bit worse in the bap study. it should be noted that the 0.15mg dose wasnt far off this performance.

      the % reductions in decline are,
      ADAScog 60%
      NTB 86%
      DAD 64%
      CDR 54%

      all quite consistent and pretty impressive and should be conservative from the point of view of placebo decline. the completer analysis is a reasonable look at how effective a drug might be in phase III.

      regarding a dose response the ranking is clear across the 4 tests, again completers
      0.5mg dose was best at all tests
      0.15mg was 2nd best at 3 from 4 tests
      1mg was 3rd or 4th ranked in all tests
      2mg was 3rd or 4th ranked in 3 from 4 tests

      i.e. the doses not associated with VE do better, and 0.5mg does better than 0.15mg
      the best dose is 0.5mg I think this is clear. My bet is "subclincal" VE in the higher doses is the problem, or "weaknesses are strengths taken to excess"

      shame about the fogginess, but its all there, and damn impressive.
      how could this wall street interpretation have happened I just cant believe it! this drug is going to have incredible impact.

      they have to get the paper out. I cant believe I still dont know how the placebos did overall, such a basic bit of info.





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    • ON: Fri Jul 18th 21:21 PM
      Commented on:
      Earnings Preview: Bank of America
      The nice thing about the recent runup in sh/pr...even if BAC misses, there is now a solid floor. It would take a pretty big miss, combined with poor guidance, to even result in BAC retracing to $22.00 let alone breaking $20.00. With the shorts apparently muzzled, at least to a degree (since the OMM retains their dirty exemption and can thus print airshares at will), BAC will not see the unimpeded stampede to the downside which was a real likely prospect upon an earnings disappointment hitherto.

      GL to all longs...
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    • ON: Thu Jun 12th 09:28 AM
      Commented on:
      Dendreon's Provenge: Government Agencies Play Hide and Seek With Facts
      Outstanding effort to right a terrible wrong. The FDA is a totally corrupt organization which has escaped proper oversight and accountability for many many years. Thank God that some group has finally stood up and is at least exposing them.

      PCa patients are suffering and dying needlessly while a far safer and proven superior treatment is sidelined for years by these fools at the FDA. I honestly think the term "wicked" is one which most aptly describes these government scum.

      They have stolen hope and life itself. These FDA officials are criminals of the worst sort and should, in truth, be brought up on criminal charges.
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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 21:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Indevus Pharmaceuticals: Nebido Has Lost Its Libido
      The simple fact is that the FDA is out of control. There is simply no logical reason for such absurd indications, as apparently is the case, to be coming from FDA. The product has been available in Europe from 2003, the minor potential side effects are well documented, easily dealt with, and could be adequately addressed with appropriate labeling warnings. These fascists big brother types would no doubt ban aspirin were it presented to them for approval at this time. At least in this case people are not dying needlessly due to the FDA's decision...not so for end-stage prostate cancer victims denied Dendreon's Provenge.

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    • ON: Sun Jun 1st 15:55 PM
      Commented on:
      10 Biotechs in Stem Cells that Could Profit Under the Democrats
      Other criteria one should consider before investing in these companies is cash on hand to burn rate, and patents...most stem cell plays are on very shaky financial footings. GERN is an exception, they are well funded. GERN's sh/pr has recently taken a 20% hit due to the FDA placing a clinical hold on its experimental treatment for spinal injury. The stock has recovered a bit from already, but likely will regain the $5.00 level when the FDA comes to its senses or Bush is booted out of office. Expect McCain to be as, or nearly as favorably disposed towards stem cell research as the Democrats...he isn't exactly beholden to or a champion of the views held by the religious right. GERN has a rather large collection of patents holdings as well...I suspect BP would like to acquire these on the cheap. Jan. calls on GERN are my bet.
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    • ON: Mon Apr 21st 11:48 AM
      Commented on:
      Dendreon: The FDA's Commissioner Doth Protest Too Much!
      FDA Commissioner Andy is obviously a shill and a liar to boot.

      Provenge has demonstrated repeatedly that it is both far far safer and has superior efficacy over any FDA approved treatment for end-stage prostate cancer.

      Yet the FDA claims that Overall Survival is the Gold Standard!!

      Andy...you are a contemptable disgrace. You will stand before your Creator with the blood of the innocent staining your conscience and those same souls will condemn you for what you have wrought.

      You had the power to speak for those who had no acceptable alternative; instead you allowed their last hope to be stolen.

      Sooner or later, probably when Dendreon gets a CEO with some vision, Provenge will be approved...if not in the U.S., then in Europe. Its efficacy will be evident to the world soon thereafter.

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    • ON: Fri Apr 4th 21:45 PM
      Commented on:
      How Much Can We Blame the Uptick Rule?
      If you doubt the overall detrimental effect of uptick rule suspension, you merely demonstrate your ignorance of the real world trading environment as it exists today, a time when specialty short hedge funds cooperate in ever more aggressive and illegal tactics than even a couple of years ago. Anyone with a lick of common sense and experience can understand why the rule was implemented originally, and why it is still needed.

      You first need to educate yourself regarding the whole "naked shorting" epidemic and understand that the reporting of such 'failures to deliver' is voluntary and currently completely tolerated by the SEC stooges. The combination of FTDs and bear raids fascilitated by uptick elimination is rapidly turning the market into a rule of the jungle casino which will eventually lead to a mass exodus from American exchanges by both companies and individual investors.

      I trade professionally, specializing in biotechnology stocks; this niche along with microcap technology has been especially hard hit by the SEC's absurd decision to eliminate the uptick rule. Remember, there are lies, damn lies, and then statistics...ask any honest professional pollster. Those so-called test securities which you allude to don't prove anything. I am tempted to speculate that only an couple of eggheads with little actual trading experience would cite that stuff in the face of real world experience. I guarantee you, from first hand experience, until the SEC seriously acts to eliminate the possibility of naked short sells...I mean "serious" as in felony status, jail time, and/or very severe fines for offenders, the uptick rule is absolutely needed; even then it should be reinstated immediately.

      Those who say that bear raids don't affect long-term performance of good quality stocks are either naive, inexperienced with small cap stocks which are favorite targets, or simply individuals who are often short. It is one thing to bring a well capitalized large cap stock down 10 or 15 percent...quite another to bring a financially strapped biotech micro-cap, which may be working on a cure for a deadly cancer, down 60 or 70 percent and then hold it there for weeks or months...damaging investors and starving it of the possibility to raise capital at realistic rates.

      It is said that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing...those who honestly don't recognize the need for the uptick rule have little knowledge, or they simply find the uptick rule an impediment to their goal of making money.
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    • ON: Wed Apr 2nd 00:47 AM
      Commented on:
      Internet Hoax Gooses Stock Market
      Those links don't connect to any evidence supporting this story...so it looks like the April Fools joke is by Barry.

      Doug seems to have written these things...but I can't see that it was picked up and widely distributed.

      Very funny...jerk.
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    • ON: Sat Mar 22nd 05:46 AM
      Commented on:
      Is Palm Management Doing Enough to Get Back on Track?
      With the earnings disappointment and S&P placing PALM ratings on 'CreditWatch', expect PALM to receive the BSC treatment...probably about $2.00 per/sh as well. Tough market, even tougher competitors.
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    • ON: Sun Feb 24th 21:32 PM
      Commented on:
      High Tide for SiRF Technology
      Recommending that speculators wait until sh/pr rises to IPO level?? Sorry, but that is absolutely absurd advice. SIRF went in with a fairly heavy short interest, and that has likely increased significantly considering volume on the downside and the recent pattern of hedgie shorting since the 'uptick' rule elimination. If the market continues heading South in the coming week, the less adventuresome (non-traders) might wish to wait and see if $6.50sh holds, but anyone wanting the comfort of IPO prices should put his money in a mutual fund.
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    • ON: Wed Feb 20th 00:09 AM
      Commented on:
      NutriSystem Looks Sweet Heading Into Earnings
      Interesting that in spite of going into earnings with roughly 70% SI, there was a 24% drop in sh/pr AH...and no significant covering bounce near the end of AH trading.

      NTRI guided FY08 adj. EBIDTA at 125-135 mln, but only 18-22 mln adj. EBIDTA for 1Q08 while acknowledging that the economy was a factor influencing consumer discretionary spending. Well, if the economy continues under pressure into 2008, then it is logical to speculate that their projection of FY08 adj. EBIDTA of 125-135 mln may be overly optimistic, again setting up for a further downward revision.

      One would assume that the shorts will "need" to cover soon, but should upcoming reports indicate a worsening economy, I'm wondering if they might even redouble their attack...driving this company down towards $12.00 range.

      Will be interesting to see if any significant short covering develops within the next few days.

      No current position in NTRI.
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    • ON: Sat Oct 13th 15:23 PM
      Commented on:
      Buy LDK Solar's Panic Selling Drop
      I don't now, nor ever have I held a position in this company. I have to admit, that I am tempted to go long on Monday, depending first on how the market reacts to the Barron's piece.

      You make a revealing statement in your write-up: "I will add to my position on any weakness from here. I am investing in this company based on my 'faith' in management, I just 'hope' they don't deceive their shareholders."

      You express "faith" in a mngt. you don't actually know (apparently)..and you express uncertainty by your use of the word "hope".

      You seem to reason (somewhat logically) that mngt.'s immediate promise of an 'independent' audit, and the CFO's assurances are indicative of the accuracy of the company's version or position...since the CFO is exposing himself to possible legal entanglements if he is lying.

      Yet I would point out that Mr. Situ must be as aware of the potential legal penalties which may await him were his charges proven to be false....and possibly even if they are true.

      I suspect it is a rare occurrence where someone making false accusations bothers to send copious documentation to the SEC and other outlets.

      I suspect the "truth" lies somewhere in the middle.

      My guess is that yes indeed...LDK's mngt. tried to play 'fast and loose' with the 'scrap' inventory...this is simply deceptive when not revealed upfront (at least in footnotes). My suspicion is that such loose interpretation of the facts is more common among Chinese firms than American firms (simple supposition on my part from various stories I have heard and read over the years).

      The real question is - if true...if mngt. was using a bit of 'fuzzy' math, if they were painting an unjustifiably rosy picture...how inaccurate were they?? Does the 'truth' justify a 40/50 % haircut? Is LDK a screaming buy now, or will further revelations cut the sh/pr further...and by how much?

      One thing is certain...a cloud now hangs over LDK mngt. Their decision to (apparently) be less than absolutely transparent in their reportings has left a stain of doubt as to how credible other figures might be as well.

      I don't pretend to be able to discern with certainty whether there is any serious malfeasance here...or simply an honest misunderstanding, or acceptable difference of opinion.

      My plan is to wait for the market's reaction on Monday to the Barron's piece and then go long...but not very long. Only a fool or an aggressive speculator in search of riches, rushes into a cloud of smoke assuming the reports of fire are mere poppycock.

      Of course, there are a lot of very rich individuals, who have achieved that status by aggressive speculation.
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