Seeking Alpha

in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View in4thelonghaul's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Human Genome Sciences Gets EU Approval for Benlysta [View article]
    Good call to wait on sales ramp, as HGSI at $12.40ish, has now cratered on speculation that July sales barely increased over June sales.....of course the company is silent. Seems to be some speculation that the target population is quite a bit smaller than the company had projected...maybe it is just getting as slow start though. Would love to see GSK just make an offer of $18 for the rest of HGSI...maybe with they sweeten it and take it for $21.
    Aug 25 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis: Still Promising, Still Controversial [View article]
    Ask any patient unfortunate enough to be afflicted with mets to the bone whether sig. pain reduction is a worthwhile criteria.....obviously solid evidence of complete bone mets eradication or sig. shrinkage would be better, but sig. pain reduction sans powerful & dangerous narcotics is a very big deal which justifies FDA approval. Of course, this is the FDA we are dealing with, the one's which denied DNDN's Provenge from terminal patients for years due to a .002 endpoint miss! And of course later Provenge was approved...but oh well, too bad for 50,000 plus terminal prostate cancer patients who had no other effective treatment and died without access to Provenge. Yeah, that same FDA.
    Aug 22 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech's Wild Ride for the Second Half of 2011 [View article]
    Realize space is at a premium, but I would definately include SQNM in your list....their T-21 test for Down Syndrome (Q42011-Q12012 target launch) stands to be a game changer, and previously the s/p rocketed towards near $30 as test launch time approached. Granted, rough patch for stocks...maybe to get a lot rougher quickly, but $15 target for SQNM seems an absolute no brainer. Hefty short interest a bit over 20%, and in this dicey market that could spell a further s/p drop before they are ready to cover; still, approx. 6 months isn't long to double or triple ones money.
    Aug 8 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Oversold, Undervalued Stocks With Impressive Profitability [View article]
    On 6-15 RBCN reaffirmed Q2 guidance, indicating that revenue & pre-tax earnings should come in at the high end of previously provided figures...but RBCN's CFO has indicated the company will begin accruing for federal income tax beginning the 2nd Qtr 2011 which will result in an effective tax rate of near 40 percent. I believe their previous tax rate was approx 7% for state tax. Previously EPS guidance is thus adjusted down to btwn .53 and .55 As of 7-15, op-ex Friday, shorts don't appear interested in covering.....in fact RBCN Aug. $15 puts appear active and up about 20% in price.
    Wondering if the shorts expect disappointing guidance come Aug 4th earnings release, or maybe just a market-wide, debt ceiling related, sell-off soon.
    Jul 15 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Shorts Create a Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Usually appreciate your efforts, as far as they go, but I find your articles are often lacking depth and frequently paint an incomplete picture due to lack of pertinent, sometimes even basic and easily included information; don't know whether to chalk that up to sloppy DD, laziness, or what.
    Jul 13 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Telling Insider Trades Worth Investigating [View article]
    "AVI BioPharma and the Naval Medical Research Center in Silver Spring, MD, announced the successful completion of a formal rapid-response exercise conducted by the Joint Project Manager Transformational Medical Technologies of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. The exercise involved two undisclosed bacterial and viral threats and exhibited AVI's continued success in the development of a credible rapid response capability utilizing its RNA-based therapeutic technologies against pathogenic threats. Previously, AVI successfully completed its first formal rapid-response exercise against the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in 2009 and one against the dengue virus in 2010. The key outcome of this newest rapid response exercise was AVI's simultaneous conception, design and manufacture in 18 days of two novel RNA-based drug candidates, one against a gram negative bacterial target and the second against a viral target."

    *AVII - Lots of irons in the fire....tremendous potential, and a quite a few shorts in a bad spot as well.
    Jul 6 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere's Extraordinary Growth Potential in Medical Diagnostics [View article]
    torontodoc - your statement: "it's not clear what competitive advantage an ER would see in such a test, however, unless it's priced significantly cheaper than the current troponin assays...i do not know if the higher sensitivity alone would warrant a switch to a newer system unless much cheaper..." seems quite odd. Maybe there is some basic disconnect btwn Canadian medicine and US, but I assure you that US hospitals will widely & quickly adopt such a vastly improved offering. Time is money, in healthcare as elsewhere...quicker more accurate diagnosis translates to cost savings and of course improved patient outcomes.

    As was pointed out in the article, the competitive advantage is speed and sensitivity....and the troponin test doesn't have to be 'priced significantly cheaper' either, it would be a no-brainer if the test cost was roughly equivalent. Don't know what kind of doc you are, but I doubt you specialize in cardiac care or even work routinely in the ER.
    Jun 23 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Savient Pharma: Cheap Biotech Without FDA Approval Risk [View article]
    With 30% + SI, and impressive % inst. holdings... Risk/Reward seems highly favorable here. Even at say 'only' 35,000 patients in the U.S., it seems SVNT is undervalued by a huge amount. Risk, with continued short intransigence, is maybe a drop to $6 (?), but at any time a buyout for $12 plus could surface; those shorts are gonna have to cover eventually.

    As far as I can see, the lower the shorts can force the s/p down, the better; would love to pick up SVNT for $6, before next earnings in August, or some positive news out of Europe emerges. No guarantees with biotech of course; there is competition waiting in the wings, the market could enter a renewed meltdown at any time, and of course the BB warning doesn't help...but the target population is almost certainly willing to endure reasonable controlled risk to gain the relief they so desperately seek. Appears about as close a 'no-brainer' buy at $6.85ish as one can find......not like the FDA can torpedo SVNT with a CRL letter - Krystexxa is already approved. Looking forward to a slow ramp/increasing sales, positive news out of Europe, and eventual clear sailing as regards reimbursement...may take another 6 months or so though.
    Jun 21 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom Announces a Launch Date for Its Non-Invasive Down Syndrome Test [View article]
    If you don't know what has 'changed'.....you are not paying attention. Sorry for your previous loss, unfortunate you didn't double down when the opportunity presented itself. SQNM is likely headed for $30 per share though, so hopefully you still have the resources to make a very respectable profiit.
    Jun 21 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point to Dell Acquiring Brocade - What It Might Mean for Competitors [View article]
    I agree that a DELL/BRCD hookup makes excellent sense, but what makes you think that the other players are just going to roll over and allow DELL to have BRCD without a fight, or are you not making that assumption? I expect the first bid to surface will only be the starters gun for what could easily be a 3-way competition. DELL is executing well, cash rich, and in much better position to fight for BRCD than previously, but HPQ, IBM and others would seem to have an interest in BRCD, or at least making certain that BRCD doesn't come too cheaply.

    I was buying QLGC calls today, already was loaded with BRCD calls....hadn't thought about ELX though.
    Jun 3 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Speculative Biotech Stocks Smart Money Loves [View article]
    Gotta agree about the ASTM comments....if you are going to mention a company, at least spend a modicum of effort describing why one might wish to invest?? ASTM has a tremendous amount of potential which warrants a bit more depth.
    May 24 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brocade Racing to Eat Some of Cisco's Lunch [View article]
    Nice link....thx
    May 9 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brocade Racing to Eat Some of Cisco's Lunch [View article]
    Frank....any response to the already numerous posters indicating that you have understated CSCO's position in the 'Fabric' space? Anybody can get things wrong, slightly or majorly....were you unaware of CSCO's efforts in this area, or do you still feel that CSCO lags BRCD in this area?

    Seems to me that a number of larger players wishing to compete with CSCO, maybe even get a jump on them if BRCD is out front as you indicate, would be looking desiriously upon BRCD as an ever more sumptuous acquisition target. I had never really considered Dell as having enough muscle to win in a tussle to acquire BRCD...had favored HP when that rumor was circulating. What is your take on the constant acquisition rumors swirling, and do you have any thoughts as regards one most likely to make first bid on them? Seems IBM might have quite an interest.
    May 9 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brocade First-to-Market With Fabric Adapter Technology [View article]
    They may be a winner eventually, more likely a survivor...shareholders won't be winners of much until BRCD finally, if ever, is in play.
    May 2 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dirt Cheap Plays on Energy [View article]
    Well, BCON has filed for $100 million shelf offering. Congratulations to those who correctly analyzed their need to dilute. Without some positive news, looks like BCON s/p is headed for a swift trip south.
    Apr 27 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
234 Comments
336 Likes