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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • Grid-Scale Energy Storage: Lux Predicts $113.5B Global Demand By 2017 [View article]
    Thanks for all your articles John - always look forward to them and the discussions which follow.

    Has AXPW given indications that the seemingly ever present technical production glitches have finally been satisfactorily addressed? And considering the tremendous potential of Axion's lead-carbon technology, I find it odd that JCI or an established industrial player hasn't just bought AXPW out for petty cash by now - any thoughts along these lines? It seems that were Axion to land a commercial order from NS or BMW that their recent capital raise would prove quite insufficient for ramp-up requirements as well.
    Apr 4 06:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx: Strong Upside Potential From Perifosine [View article]
    Do they pay you for this stuff?
    Mar 30 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mannkind: Slow, Methodical Short Covering, Or Will It Squeeze? [View article]
    Well put my friend.....FDA is thoroughly corrupt. Sad that A.Mann wasn't aware before hand, as the there was more than ample evidence in a long history of FDA duplicity and corruption - but things are as they are...hopefully he is a bit wiser this time around.
    Jan 18 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex A Steal Based On Blockbuster Hepatitis C Drug Sales [View article]
    To the uninitiated as regards this space, check out INHX's oral treatment, compare market cap, consider the recent price targets....do your proper due diligence before jumping in. Mind you, VRTX was just downgraded and is at 2-year support at market open this day.
    Nov 8 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Contenders To Be The First Profitable Stem Cell Company [View article]
    As one poster has already mentioned....you can not justifiably ignore ASTM - it is in P-3 for crying out loud! Any other stem cell plays you know of which are running phase 3 trials? See, there is a HUGE difference between phase one trials and phase 3 trials. Here is a clue for you if you are going to the trouble of writing an article......why not include just a bit about the current state of company specific finances????
    Oct 11 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sangamo's Late Breaking, Game Changing News At ICAAC [View article]
    If the results are imprsessive enough and considering the HIV lobby's political clout...possibly they can jump straight to a P-3 trial. The big questions of course are cost/efficacy and durability, which relates directly. Hopefully we will get up to date and encouraging information regarding these issues. Haven't followed SGMO closely but, at the risk of displaying my ignorance, always wondered whether these cells can reproduce or does the approach need to some way involve the bone marrow? Important to remember that SGMO is not a one-shot wonder but has a number of irons in the fire; their IP, platform technology & business model has the potential to eventually launch SGMO into the ranks of a biotech powerhouse...this is no sprint to such status though. Last I read, the City of Hope was running a trial along similar lines, actually with what appeared to be a superior trial structure, but haven't heard anything regarding this...but then I haven't been following the company for a while. As seems so common with these small developmental biotechs, SGMO has at least one instance, in the not so distant past, of claiming plenty of running capital to last for an extended period of time only to turn around and quickly engage in a dilutive financing deal.....so buyer beware of claims made by SGMO mngt.
    Sep 3 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Human Genome Sciences Gets EU Approval for Benlysta [View article]
    Good call to wait on sales ramp, as HGSI at $12.40ish, has now cratered on speculation that July sales barely increased over June sales.....of course the company is silent. Seems to be some speculation that the target population is quite a bit smaller than the company had projected...maybe it is just getting as slow start though. Would love to see GSK just make an offer of $18 for the rest of HGSI...maybe with they sweeten it and take it for $21.
    Aug 25 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis: Still Promising, Still Controversial [View article]
    Ask any patient unfortunate enough to be afflicted with mets to the bone whether sig. pain reduction is a worthwhile criteria.....obviously solid evidence of complete bone mets eradication or sig. shrinkage would be better, but sig. pain reduction sans powerful & dangerous narcotics is a very big deal which justifies FDA approval. Of course, this is the FDA we are dealing with, the one's which denied DNDN's Provenge from terminal patients for years due to a .002 endpoint miss! And of course later Provenge was approved...but oh well, too bad for 50,000 plus terminal prostate cancer patients who had no other effective treatment and died without access to Provenge. Yeah, that same FDA.
    Aug 22 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech's Wild Ride for the Second Half of 2011 [View article]
    Realize space is at a premium, but I would definately include SQNM in your list....their T-21 test for Down Syndrome (Q42011-Q12012 target launch) stands to be a game changer, and previously the s/p rocketed towards near $30 as test launch time approached. Granted, rough patch for stocks...maybe to get a lot rougher quickly, but $15 target for SQNM seems an absolute no brainer. Hefty short interest a bit over 20%, and in this dicey market that could spell a further s/p drop before they are ready to cover; still, approx. 6 months isn't long to double or triple ones money.
    Aug 8 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Oversold, Undervalued Stocks With Impressive Profitability [View article]
    On 6-15 RBCN reaffirmed Q2 guidance, indicating that revenue & pre-tax earnings should come in at the high end of previously provided figures...but RBCN's CFO has indicated the company will begin accruing for federal income tax beginning the 2nd Qtr 2011 which will result in an effective tax rate of near 40 percent. I believe their previous tax rate was approx 7% for state tax. Previously EPS guidance is thus adjusted down to btwn .53 and .55 As of 7-15, op-ex Friday, shorts don't appear interested in covering.....in fact RBCN Aug. $15 puts appear active and up about 20% in price.
    Wondering if the shorts expect disappointing guidance come Aug 4th earnings release, or maybe just a market-wide, debt ceiling related, sell-off soon.
    Jul 15 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Shorts Create a Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Usually appreciate your efforts, as far as they go, but I find your articles are often lacking depth and frequently paint an incomplete picture due to lack of pertinent, sometimes even basic and easily included information; don't know whether to chalk that up to sloppy DD, laziness, or what.
    Jul 13 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Telling Insider Trades Worth Investigating [View article]
    "AVI BioPharma and the Naval Medical Research Center in Silver Spring, MD, announced the successful completion of a formal rapid-response exercise conducted by the Joint Project Manager Transformational Medical Technologies of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. The exercise involved two undisclosed bacterial and viral threats and exhibited AVI's continued success in the development of a credible rapid response capability utilizing its RNA-based therapeutic technologies against pathogenic threats. Previously, AVI successfully completed its first formal rapid-response exercise against the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in 2009 and one against the dengue virus in 2010. The key outcome of this newest rapid response exercise was AVI's simultaneous conception, design and manufacture in 18 days of two novel RNA-based drug candidates, one against a gram negative bacterial target and the second against a viral target."

    *AVII - Lots of irons in the fire....tremendous potential, and a quite a few shorts in a bad spot as well.
    Jul 6 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere's Extraordinary Growth Potential in Medical Diagnostics [View article]
    torontodoc - your statement: "it's not clear what competitive advantage an ER would see in such a test, however, unless it's priced significantly cheaper than the current troponin assays...i do not know if the higher sensitivity alone would warrant a switch to a newer system unless much cheaper..." seems quite odd. Maybe there is some basic disconnect btwn Canadian medicine and US, but I assure you that US hospitals will widely & quickly adopt such a vastly improved offering. Time is money, in healthcare as elsewhere...quicker more accurate diagnosis translates to cost savings and of course improved patient outcomes.

    As was pointed out in the article, the competitive advantage is speed and sensitivity....and the troponin test doesn't have to be 'priced significantly cheaper' either, it would be a no-brainer if the test cost was roughly equivalent. Don't know what kind of doc you are, but I doubt you specialize in cardiac care or even work routinely in the ER.
    Jun 23 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Savient Pharma: Cheap Biotech Without FDA Approval Risk [View article]
    With 30% + SI, and impressive % inst. holdings... Risk/Reward seems highly favorable here. Even at say 'only' 35,000 patients in the U.S., it seems SVNT is undervalued by a huge amount. Risk, with continued short intransigence, is maybe a drop to $6 (?), but at any time a buyout for $12 plus could surface; those shorts are gonna have to cover eventually.

    As far as I can see, the lower the shorts can force the s/p down, the better; would love to pick up SVNT for $6, before next earnings in August, or some positive news out of Europe emerges. No guarantees with biotech of course; there is competition waiting in the wings, the market could enter a renewed meltdown at any time, and of course the BB warning doesn't help...but the target population is almost certainly willing to endure reasonable controlled risk to gain the relief they so desperately seek. Appears about as close a 'no-brainer' buy at $6.85ish as one can find......not like the FDA can torpedo SVNT with a CRL letter - Krystexxa is already approved. Looking forward to a slow ramp/increasing sales, positive news out of Europe, and eventual clear sailing as regards reimbursement...may take another 6 months or so though.
    Jun 21 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom Announces a Launch Date for Its Non-Invasive Down Syndrome Test [View article]
    If you don't know what has 'changed'.....you are not paying attention. Sorry for your previous loss, unfortunate you didn't double down when the opportunity presented itself. SQNM is likely headed for $30 per share though, so hopefully you still have the resources to make a very respectable profiit.
    Jun 21 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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