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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    No Robert.....it wasn't a 'homerun', nor balanced, but it is true to PA's 'form' of late - intentionally biased to the downside. Try using a realistic PE multiple of between 35 and 55 (REGNs - PCYC), and not casting innuendos of Matt Pfeffer's lack of accuracy in describing the partnership as equating to a 'mid-twenty' percent royalty stream.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:19 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Outstanding reply!
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:18 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Oh so Matt Pfeffer, MNKD's CFO, is a liar? Or just confused? But you know better?
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:50 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    A multiple of between 35 and 55 is much more realistic for a developmental biotech addressing such a large and growing market with a product which early adopters are reporting is actually a good bit superior to any available competition - that is verifiable if you bother to look.

    Now go back and refigure with say a 55 PE like PCYC is sporting. You aren't fooling anyone btw.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Not WS...only short tools - long investors have been and continue to be very patient - realizing that it can take months for most diabetics just to get in to see their Endo for an Afrezza RX. Sanofi isn't even promoting Afrezza yet. Wait until Sanofi starts the TV commercials in a few months.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp Fourth Quarter Edition [View article]
    6034700 - Elucidate man...

    The author and another have asked you to be more specific as regards the "alluded" to problem, and yet you refuse. The author has, in an attempt to address your concerns, stated: "In terms of Eleonore, according to the company the problems with the Tailings Filter Press have been corrected and GG expects to produce 330,000 ounces in FY2015.

    What's the issues with Eleonore you're referring to?"

    Yet you refuse to clarify your position. Is that because you can't really substantiate your position?
    Feb 21, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Investors: Don't Screw Up The Afrezza Launch [View article]
    Wow - Simply Outstanding and Classy response AU....Sanofi should hire you forthwith! ; )
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    Sorry, that was supposed to read "...the huge [pre-diabetic] population of roughly 86 million in the US...."
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    Like your response, except a realistic market capture for Afrezza, on a global basis, is far more than 3 million. Sanofi's "initial" target population is 3.1 million in the US alone. There are roughly 15 to 16 million diabetics using only oral meds, and 40% of those are failing significantly to maintain their BG levels within acceptable range....so you have those 6 million who could greatly benefit from Afrezza, plus the roughly 1.5 million, out of the current ~ 4.6 million current US RAA injectors, who surveys have indicated simply dread their need to inject 3 or 4 times per day. Then you have the huge population of roughly 86 million in the US (latest figures from the CDC). Up to 30% of these individuals, without effective intervention, will develop full-blown diabetes within 5-years.

    It is pretty easy to see that when Sanofi said "initial" US target population for Afrezza is 3.1 million persons - they truly meant "initial".

    The actual US adopters of Afrezza, given a good number of years time for its effectiveness to become widely known among physicians and the diabetic community, could easily reach 9 million. With the estimated global diabetic population in the vicinity of 365 million (depending on statistical source), and currently increasing at ~ 6.5 %, one can easily see how Afrezza adopters globally can eventually surpass 20 million.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    I find your choice of a PE of 15 as valuation metric to be bordering on absurdly conservative....so much so as to be unrealistic and misleading.

    Let's look at some PE of a few other in the biotech/pharma space for comparison.

    PCYC, a dev. biotech similar to MNKD, with revenue, according to Yahoo, of approx. $563 million, but with a profit margin of only 15%, sports a Trailing PE of 147 and a Forward PE of 295!

    REGN, with revenue of approx. $2.63 billion and a profit margin of approx 13%, sports a Trailing PE of approx. 145 and a Forward PE of approx 36.

    CELG, more established, with a revenue of approx. $7.34 billion and a profit margin of approx. 22%, sports a Trailing PE of ~ 65 and a Forward PE of ~ 25.5

    Sanofi, a Big Pharma thrown in just for comparison, has a revenue of approx. $38 billion and profit margin of 'only' approx. 12%, sports a Trailing PE of 26.5 and a Forward PE of approx. 14.5

    So you used a PE metric similar to that commonly applied to Big Pharmas to base your price projections for MNKD share price on? Why would anyone intentionally do that? You are an experienced SA contributor and there is no way you did that by accident.

    Try re-figuring your estimates using a realistic PE commonly used for developmental biotechs, or better, use a P/S of say 16 (similar to that of REGN) or a P/S of 21 (similar to that of PCYC).

    * I find your use of a '15 PE' absurdly misleading.
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:44 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    *Another view, by 'finallyinthemoney' on the YHOO MNKD board - estimates MNKD NPV at $22.15

    "Recently a poster mentioned a quote of approx. $235 for a 90-count box of 4 unit Afrezza cartridges...so I will calculate from that and assume that is a 1-month supply.

    $235 X 12 = $2820.00 annual...rounded to $2800. $2800.00 X Sanofi's 'initial' US target population of 3.1 million Afrezza adopters = $8.68 billion to Sanofi. I will use 24% to approximate Matt's claim of a near 'mid-twenty percent' revenue royalty being the equivalent of the 35% profit sharing arrangement btwn MNKD and Sanofi.
    So, we take $8.68 billion X .24 = $2.08 billion falling to MNKD. Applying the P/S (P/Rev) metric of 16, as REGN is sporting currently, results in $33.28 billion. All left to do is divide by number of MNKD shares outstanding. I decided to use a 475M fully diluted share count (adjust up or down a bit according to your view of the true shares outstanding). So, $33.28 billion divided by 475 million shares = $70 p/share.

    *Utilizing a P/Rev of 18 yields a s/price of ~ $78.82
    *Utilizing a P/Rev of 21, similar to that of PCYC, yields a s/p of $91.96

    Assuming that Sanofi will be able to meet their 'initial' US target....then what is a realistic NPV for MNKD shares? Of course this depends on the time to reach their 3.1M adopters and the discount one wishes to apply to each year. So going with the $70 p/sh (P/Rev of 16), assuming 4 years to target achievement ($70 by 2019), and utilizing a 25% discount p/yr results in a NPV of $22.15

    *Important - we are expecting Afrezza to be available in Europe, and who knows where else, by probably sometime in 2017....these share price projections don't include the additional revenue from expected ROW Afrezza future sales, nor do they attempt to figure for added eventual income from future products or licensing deals involving the Technosphere platform technology.

    One can argue that it won't take 4 years to reach SNY's target, and/or that a 25% discount is too high - regardless, MNKD is obviously way undervalued at ~ $5.75"
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:53 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: A Dangerous Time To Be Short MannKind [View article]
    I believe he is 90 years young and still going strong.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: A Dangerous Time To Be Short MannKind [View article]
    Okay Trevor....let's take a 'best case' scenario which would support 'Feinlawyer's statement of a 'possible' MNKD share price of $100 'or more' within a 'few years' time.

    Sanofi has already stated that their 'initial' target population for US sales of Afrezza is 3.1M users - again that is "initial". Supposing Afrezza sells for $2200 annual per user (I have seen estimates for the annual cost of Afrezza from $1700 to $2800). Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) currently appears to be sporting a P/S metric of 28.5 (YHOO figures btw). So let's just do some simple math. 3.1 million users of Afrezza times $2200 annual equals $6.82 billion revenue to Sanofi from just reaching their initial US target population (granted they did not provide a timetable for achieving this goal). Mathew Pfeffer, CFO of MNKD has previously stated that their deal with SNY is the equivalent of a "mid-twenty percent" revenue stream. So let's take Sanofi's assumed $6.82 billion from above and multiply by say .24 (just a touch under the mid-twenty percent Matt alluded to). This gives us roughly $1.637 billion falling to MNKD. Now let's take that ~ $1.637 billion and multiply by a Price to Revenue (P/R) metric of 28 (similar to the P/S metric of AVNR). This results in a figure of approximately $46 billion. Now let's simply divide that $46 billion by say 450 million shares of MNKD (I think this ballpark for MNKD shares outstanding...fully diluted - if it's off, one would have to adjust up or down a bit accordingly). This results in a MNKD share price of approx. $102.

    Now one can easily argue that the P/R metric I used is quite excessive, and I will grant that it is at the upper end of what one generally encounters....and yet if AVNR, a company yet to turn a profit, is sporting such a valuation, then why not MNKD, a company which will likely not even pay taxes for the first couple years following Afrezza launch? So, I think 'few' usually means at least 3 years....thus one can see that Feinlawyer's projections are indeed plausible; mind you that this exercise is based only on Sanofi's estimates for initial US sales, and thus doesn't include any Afrezza sales which might be achieved ex-US in the first 3 years following launch. Also, these figures don't reflect any additional share price value for the full ~ $900 million in milestone payments to MNKD, nor is there any attempt here made to value any additional revenue to MNKD which the Technosphere platform might bring in.

    Assuming say 500,000 Afrezza adopters by end of Q4/2015, and then an additional roughly 275,000 users every quarter for the next 9 to 10 quarters - well there you have it. And heck, maybe it takes 4 years instead of 3, or maybe Afrezza becomes available in Europe by Q1 2017, or maybe in Europe and China as well. Hmmm, now that I think of it, given say 4 years from launch, maybe $100 p/share is too conservative; seems I recall MNKD has been working on a Technosphere based revolutionary pain reliever for quite some time.
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Earns $50 Million in Milestone Payments From Sanofi [View article]
    Let's not be too hard on the likes of Cramer and Karp......if not for their efforts we likely wouldn't have had the opportunity to add shares down nearly as low; and who would willingly want to be like that? Notice the short count is only a bit short of all time highs; gonna be pretty funny to watch those guys fighting for shares with the long inst. and retail once positive sales trajectory indicate huge market capture.
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Internist's Glance At MannKind's Afrezza [View article]
    Actually you can indeed do just that.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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