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in4thelonghaul

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  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Yes George, the short interest has gone up... it has been obvious from the daily shares available for borrow, at increasing interest, coupled with the bi-weekly reports, that the shorts were significantly and steadily increasing their already very large bet - it isn't rocket science; truly don't understand why my contention so bothers you. As for my insinuation that this increase of an already extremely aggressive short position, heading into what all expected to be a share price elevating BP deal announcement, is likely indicative of some unsavory foreknowledge by the shorts....really? Such activity paints the shorts as either stupid (something they (as in large short hedge funds) are rarely not guilty of), foolishly reckless akin to one playing chicken with an oncoming freight train, or my contention - you don't have to agree, just an observation on a public forum.

    As for my comment to MS11791 regarding his apparent contention that the paltry upfront payment will help bring Afrezza to its full potential much more quickly, it was simply that, a request for elucidation as it is something I totally disagree with. You act as though my request incensed you for some reason.

    As for use of the $6 figure, or the increased potential for MNKD shares to drop to that figure (or below in a serious market correction)....that is just the next obvious support were shares to drop below the 200dma, nothing more; my criticism as it relates to the deal structure was that with very little additional expense MNKD shares would have likely never fallen below $10, and might easily have risen to $12 or $14.

    Do I honestly think that a company "with some $12 billion in annual cash flow cares about the $20 million? There is no way to know for certain, but judging by their reluctance to provide what I have termed as a truly win/win deal for MNKD, I do suspect that they were, and thus likely continue to play a very rough game with MNKD.

    You make the comment that I 'go on endlessly' about what MNKD should've done and what you should've done or shouldn't have done, with very little basis for anything'....I made one comment/criticism to you regarding your article (and it was based on my missing something, which I readily apologized for - even going back and quoting your remark). As for going on endlessly about what MNKD should have done, or for that matter what Sanofi 'should' have done - you yourself have expressed disappointment, at least initially, with the size of the upfront payment as well as the lack of transparency surrounding the milestone payments....but I guess if YOU acknowledge such short comings with the deal or subsequent transparency provided, well that's just different?
    As for very little basis....we will just have to disagree on that - but the market's reaction to the deal tends to validate my criticisms.

    You admonish me to be happy in the face of what I perceive as a very inadequate deal for MNKD and its shareholders....maybe we just have different 'recovery' periods; possibly related to the differing sizes of our MNKD holdings. My intent wasn't to fortuitously escape a significant negative market reaction to this long awaited BP partnership deal.

    Anyway....live long and prosper - reality is what it is.
    Aug 25, 2014. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Of course they will be accumulating.....the only question is do they start from the current $7 area, or do they wait in hopes that the shorts get a broad-market tailwind which affords the opportunity of accumulation under $6.

    You have made the observation that MNKD obviously knew that this deal would be received poorly, you must also realize that Sanofi was also quite aware of the exceptional deal they had made and thus its likely impact on MNKD share price; nice that you don't really care where MNKD shares are at over the short term, but many retail are not so fortunate - many held from the recent highs, never expecting such a poor deal with such a lack of transparency to even cushion the blow....I mean the insinuations from Al's previous few comments were that shareholders would be quite impressed with the eventual deal. I consider myself extremely lucky in that I sold on the AH's spike, fully cognizant of how this deal would be received - many retail were not so fortunate, especially those who had accumulated near-term options. Another item which strikes me as obvious...the shorts almost certainly knew ahead of time how poorly this deal would be received - nobody doubles down with such boldness the way they did in the weeks leading up to the announcement without having some information which they shouldn't have had.

    On another note.....thanks for the early coverage - your reports likely got a lot of people into MNKD at around $3, even less; hoping you can find another 'early' biotech with similar potential...I have been accumulating NWBO for awhile and just recently began with CLSN
    Aug 24, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    And exactly 'how' would a reasonable upfront cash payment, vs the 'blood in the water' one they received, have hindered Afrezza from reaching its full potentially as quickly as the deal they received.....if you don't mind elucidating a bit.
    Aug 24, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Allied Nevada Gold Second Quarter Edition [View article]
    Regardless the strengths and weaknesses of specific valuation metrics - the simple fact is that ANV "currently" struggles to produce positive Free Cash Flow with gold around $1300 - Hebba, utilizing this "all-in-cost" metric appears merely to provide a more accurate big-picture view of true costs....as far as I can see, 'current' true costs. He is quite upfront about the methodology....even stating: "Ultimately, this analysis is best used as a first step to further investigative work, and that is our purpose with releasing this series." Personally, I value the effort and insight offered from the analysis, while I understand this 'all-in' approach is just a tool, one tool, to be used in a process of evaluation. It really is up to the individual investor to understand the tool, and I find no attempt by the author to disguise, or mislead.....just the opposite in fact.
    Aug 24, 2014. 12:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    My apologies George, was rushed - you did indeed express your view that the $150 million upfront "obviates any cash worries for the foreseeable future and....." - As for lowering my expectations....indeed, with Greenhill on the job for a year-plus, and considering at least one statement from Al regarding how the deal likely would be received, I did expect more; a little bit more would have made a big difference. Unfortunately, IMO, this deal allows a 'dead-money' anchor to be hung on MNKD for the next 6 to 8 months, and if by chance the broad market decides to finally roll over hard during this time, Shorty, sans a supporting equity stake by Sanofi, has the wind at his back to drop MNKD's share price to $6, if not lower, and that with almost certain relative ease. Short Interest out on 8/26 should give us a good indication on the short gameplan, but I suspect their aim is to take us further down before covering; it didn't have to be, and hopefully it won't be.

    Anyway, thanks for the article (lots of interesting facts) and the continuing coverage of MNKD. BTW, using your figures, with discounts applied, my calculations put MNKD's fair price at approx. $16 currently.
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Thanks George for the article - but honestly it isn't quite up to what I have come to expect from you.

    Not hard to go ahead and apply say a ballpark discount rate of say 17%. In consideration of the insultingly absurd and paltry upfront $150M, you didn't address whether you expect a dilutive capital raise will now be required. What is your opinion of Sanofi providing the $175M line of credit (expected MNKD's 35% of the launch costs) at 8% interest? My view is that $175M is the bare minimum and should have been $300M at 3% interest. Why was there no equity stake, say 5% at $10(?) worked into the deal, something which likely would have gone a long long way towards dislodging the huge and intransigent short position by sending a giant indicator of Sanofi's confidence in this joint venture?

    It is my contention that this deal was a giant win for Sanofi, which granted should motivate them to give it their absolute best promotional effort, but a rather marginal deal for MNKD; the most annoying aspect of this partnership deal is that Sanofi could have easily, read that as very little additional expense to them, made this a giant win/win home run for MNKD and of course their shareholdrers, a deal which would have seen the shorts stampeding for the exits. Really, 8% interest on the $175 million dollar upfront loan!??

    It would have been pocket change for Sanofi to offer the barest expected upfront payment of $300 million, and it wouldn't have really been a big deal, in the long run, to offer $500 million upfront - I mean they walked in and gained 65% profit of something which cost over $2 billion and 10 years to develop and shepherd through the FDA gauntlet....a treatment which is likely to eventually produce annual revenues in excess $7 billion, possibly way in excess if they can make serious inroads into the pre-diabetic market of approx. 85 million persons in just the US alone.

    Sanofi appears to have risked little, and their reluctance to make this a truly win/win deal, a homerun for both companies, sent a blaring "No Confidence" indication to WS in general, and put no pressure on the short position what-so-ever......they saved so little by being so stingy - it is a genuine shame.
    Aug 20, 2014. 01:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Well put....I would only say that it 'could' be as low as $2, or as high as $20 - depending on where it is trading on the 14th (at least on the high estimate).
    Jun 27, 2014. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Thanks for your article Debra...

    You stated: "EvaluatePharma, a provider of market intelligence on life sciences companies, reports that the consensus sales estimate for AFREZZA is near $600 million per year. That implies a sales multiple of 16.6 to reach a market cap near $10 billion (I am assuming all debt is converted and there is no excess cash). That hardly seems plausible."

    Personally, I suspect that at least 1 in 10 insulin dependent US diabetics will pretty much be calling their physicians requesting a switch to Afrezza right out of the gate at product launch; if true, Afrezza sales will achieve over $800 million annual sales on that alone....and that is predicated on just 10% of those already utilizing prandial insulin in their treatment regimen. So one can see that your cited figure of $600M annual sales likely represents an implausibly low market capture projection. My estimates put likely sales of Afrezza at $850 million by Q3/Q4 2015...a roughly 10% (US only) market capture, to be followed by another 10% market capture by Q2/2016; global market capture will likely lag US sales of course, and be dependent on a BP partner, but I would expect similar adoption rates from Europe & ROW to follow upon Afrezza availability in their respective regions.

    My estimate is for Afrezza to eventually capture at least 40% of the global prandial insulin market, and I think 60% is achievable in time - this is of an overall market which 'unfortunately' (well not for MNKD investors) appears to be expanding at roughly a 12% annual rate.

    *BTW...considering the positive effect on margin of MNKD's significant tax loss carryforward and their already expensed insulin in storage, a P/S ratio of 17 to 18 is quite reasonable. PCYC, with under $400M in revenue, sports a 17.5 P/S ratio, and I expect MNKD's margins and growth to easily exceed those of PCYC for many years to come.
    Jun 27, 2014. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflection Point For Stem Cells: An Interview With Advanced Cell Technology's Management [View article]
    Looking like WS considers STEM the new front-runner to beat in the AMD race.
    Jun 19, 2014. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short MannKind On Afrezza Approval? [View article]
    Highly unlikely, sans a very unfavorable/cumbersome label, that Al would even consider selling MNKD for anything under $40 p/sh - and even then, considering his past statements re. his views on the value of Afrezza, he likely would only 'consider' a $40 acquisition offer long enough get a good laugh with family and mngt. Professional surveys indicate Afrezza's potential to capture 40% of the prandial insulin market within 3 to 4 years...that is a market which apparently in increasing about 10% annually on a global basis; and then there is the value of the 'technosphere' platform which Afrezza approval will have totally validated.
    May 28, 2014. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Provectus: Strong Sell, Ties To Paid Stock Promoters, SEC Halt Risk, Price Target $0 [View article]
    Gee.....I thought Apple began operations out of a residential garage? Silly me!

    Oh, and isn't it odd that PVCT's PV-10 has achieved, at a couple of the most prestigious cancer research/treatment centers in the US, an amazing record of efficacy for advanced recurrent melanoma in patients who have failed multiple other treatments....think the ORR is over 50%! That is better than anything ever approved by FDA - these patients are approaching death's door with no options left, and here comes a treatment which achieves such results and even has a positive systemic effect on distant untreated tumors! Just odd that a 'scam' treatment, by a 'scam' company could achieve such results.....guess Moffitt, St. Lukes, M.D. Anderson are all involved in the scam - yeah, that explains it! ASCO guys must be involved too!! Boy what a 'service' you have provided with this article....your momma must be proud.
    May 22, 2014. 09:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Confidence And Cancer [View article]
    Possibly wrong here, but my understanding is that Afrezza use by trial participants resulted in a very small reduction in lung function, forget if it was like 1% or 3%, but it was quite small....also it was my understanding that upon cessation of Afrezza use, the lung function returned to normal - so there was NO Evidence of lung damage whatsoever. Got that? No Lung Damage.

    Now as for long-term use and the potential for some type of lung function reduction or cancer, over and above what transpires with normal aging, that is what the likely periodic monitoring and registry is for. Obviously, regardless of how 'natural' insulin is, it isn't 'natural' to be delivered directly to the lungs.....so any honest person has to allow for some possibility that a 'problem' may arise with long-term use in some people.

    *BTW..From what I have read in the past, daily exposure to the air pollution one encounters in a number of metropolitan areas of California or possibly Texas is equivalent to smoking a number of cigarettes a day (of course it varies by area, whether one exercises a lot during the worst smog, and time of year).

    What one would do well to keep in mind, is that poor control of one's blood glucose (including wild 'swings') i.e., 'compliance' with one's diabetes/insulin treatment regimen can be devastating to one's overall health - that is a guarantee! So one has to weigh, as best as possible, the benefits of likely increased compliance among most users of Afrezza, and the real likelihood of getting insulin treatment started sooner (proven that many delay insulin treatment due to resistance to the idea of starting injections), against the possibility that a problem may arise from long-term use. All studies/trials to date, animal and with people, indicate NO increased cancer risk, and NO permanent lung function reduction.
    May 19, 2014. 09:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Semantic Search Vringo's Next Play? [View article]
    In L.A.Rick's defense....he said '$600 million +'......that statement is sooo obvious that it is of course a bit odd, but technically it covers an acquisition for say somewhere between $2 to $3 billion; of course there will be no buyout before we get finality on the laches ruling.
    May 3, 2014. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MLV Sees A Good Chance Of FDA Approval For MannKind's Afrezza And 60% Upside [View article]
    It is interesting to note that of those who write 'positive' articles regarding MNKD's Afrezza, all appear to have solid credentials such as yourself and George RHO....obviously one would be hard pressed to make such an argument for those who write 'negative' articles. That said, I must take exception with your ridiculously low s/p projection....'5% terminal growth' seems an absurd projection - but I guess that might at least partly explain your $9 s/p target.

    Honestly, when one considers that Afrezza is not subject to the stringent refrigeration requirements of 'normal insulin', is safer by far in that it nearly eliminates to the potential for the dangerous, even fatal, hypoglycemic attack/insulin shock occurrence which those injecting insulin are subject to, has such obvious implications for increased compliance, and has been demonstrated to be superior to any other rapid acting prandial insulin in almost every metric (equivalent in the others)...it seems a 40% market capture may be quite low.

    Your readers should be aware that insulin sales are increasing globally at approx. a 12% rate, with recent US figures approaching 15%. All professionally done surveys which I have run across indicate Afrezza will achieve a minimum 40% market capture when available. It is also of pertinent interest that although the US accounts for somewhere less than 25% of the global diabetic population, by dollar sales volume it accounts for approximately 50%.

    *BTW.... US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010 - granted that not all of these sales are prandial insulin (pre-meal), but likely about 75% are.

    By simple extrapolation, 2016 US prandial insulin sales are projected to reach $9 billion...a 40% capture rate would equate to a revenue stream in excess of $3.5 billion; this figure doesn't even include 'rest of world' market capture among the global diabetic population.

    Appreciate your article and your views regarding the high likelihood of imminent FDA approval.....but you need to refigure your share price projections using a realistic P/S metric; hint - consider Celgene's P/S metric of ~ 10, or since MNKD has considerable tax loss to carry forward against future sales one might go more for a P/S metric of say 15 such as REGN is sporting. And there is that significant fact of MNKD's already expensed insulin in storage....I think they project it is sufficient to produce the first $10 billion worth of product. And then of course you are aware that once Afrezza is approved, this will validate their underlying 'technosphere' platform....so I wondering why you didn't ascribe any worth to that.

    I think your readers would be well served to read G. Rho's past articles where he places a s/p target closer to $40 than your $9.
    Mar 18, 2014. 01:40 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard Fails To Have Worlds Patents Ruled Completely Invalid; Case Marches On [View article]
    It's all in one's relative perspective isn't it? Granted, there is still enough potential in the WDDD case, stemming from the relatively low MC as has been argued, to make WDDD a decent investment given a few years and a string of legal victories, but to argue that 'losing' damages from ~ 15-plus years of past infringement....to be left with only ~ 3 years 'worth' seems particularly ludicrous; sure, I guess compared to having the patents totally invalidated because of some clerical error, but this ruling tremendously reduces the potential for profit from holding this investment. My guess is that WDDD will now be subject to the infuriating and withering 'dead-money' shorting tactics which some entity (I wonder who) has been employing so successfully against VRNG. ATVI would have to have rocks for brains to settle now for anything except pennies on the dollar vs what they were facing before the judge invalidated such a huge chunk of past damages. Oh well....luckily I was out of WDDD when this all hit, and was able to enter at 10 cents. As is so frequently the case, it is really the United States' IN-justice system which should be indicted.
    Mar 14, 2014. 07:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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