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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • MannKind Stock Approaching Pre-FDA Approval Price: Is A Bottom Coming? [View article]
    "Since AL went out of his way to make retail investors believe that the Pfizer insulin was a hugh liquid asset, post approval, and it is not; he should personally take an interest in fixing the capital structure before he fully disengages from the company."

    Agreed, without question - also, without question, don't hold your breath.
    Mar 28, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Biased Analysts, Diabetics Love MannKind's Afrezza [View article]
    Here is a recent (3/2/15) Twitter comment from Brian Sharp, a pilot and T1 diabetic, representative of many Afrezza 'early adopters' experiences which are popping up on Twitter, other social media sites, and diabetic groups: "My 7 day average is 119.4, the lowest I had in 16 years! Go Afrezza! Yesterdays average was 94.6, You can super control your BG with Afrezza"

    Such reports indicating Afrezza efficacy far surpassing that achieved in the FDA approval trials, and indicating quite superior efficacy to any other competing RAA available, are quickly finding their way back to the prescribing Endos and PCPs as well; soon it will be hard to find a doubting Endo.

    Soon this initial trickle of reports, will become a stream, then a flood...Afrezza will then be in such demand I wonder if MNKD will be able to produce it fast enough. Imagine a painless, vastly superior alternative to the 'buggy whip' barbarity of jabbing metal shafts into one's belly 3 or 4 times per day - wait, you don't have to imagine it since it is already available.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Is Tripling Production To Meet Future Demand [View article]
    Thanks for your input doc - very valuable.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Oh and yeah, you definitely don't do PC well. LOL
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    No Robert.....it wasn't a 'homerun', nor balanced, but it is true to PA's 'form' of late - intentionally biased to the downside. Try using a realistic PE multiple of between 35 and 55 (REGNs - PCYC), and not casting innuendos of Matt Pfeffer's lack of accuracy in describing the partnership as equating to a 'mid-twenty' percent royalty stream.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:19 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Outstanding reply!
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:18 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Oh so Matt Pfeffer, MNKD's CFO, is a liar? Or just confused? But you know better?
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:50 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    A multiple of between 35 and 55 is much more realistic for a developmental biotech addressing such a large and growing market with a product which early adopters are reporting is actually a good bit superior to any available competition - that is verifiable if you bother to look.

    Now go back and refigure with say a 55 PE like PCYC is sporting. You aren't fooling anyone btw.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Not WS...only short tools - long investors have been and continue to be very patient - realizing that it can take months for most diabetics just to get in to see their Endo for an Afrezza RX. Sanofi isn't even promoting Afrezza yet. Wait until Sanofi starts the TV commercials in a few months.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp Fourth Quarter Edition [View article]
    6034700 - Elucidate man...

    The author and another have asked you to be more specific as regards the "alluded" to problem, and yet you refuse. The author has, in an attempt to address your concerns, stated: "In terms of Eleonore, according to the company the problems with the Tailings Filter Press have been corrected and GG expects to produce 330,000 ounces in FY2015.

    What's the issues with Eleonore you're referring to?"

    Yet you refuse to clarify your position. Is that because you can't really substantiate your position?
    Feb 21, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Investors: Don't Screw Up The Afrezza Launch [View article]
    Wow - Simply Outstanding and Classy response AU....Sanofi should hire you forthwith! ; )
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    Sorry, that was supposed to read "...the huge [pre-diabetic] population of roughly 86 million in the US...."
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    Like your response, except a realistic market capture for Afrezza, on a global basis, is far more than 3 million. Sanofi's "initial" target population is 3.1 million in the US alone. There are roughly 15 to 16 million diabetics using only oral meds, and 40% of those are failing significantly to maintain their BG levels within acceptable range....so you have those 6 million who could greatly benefit from Afrezza, plus the roughly 1.5 million, out of the current ~ 4.6 million current US RAA injectors, who surveys have indicated simply dread their need to inject 3 or 4 times per day. Then you have the huge population of roughly 86 million in the US (latest figures from the CDC). Up to 30% of these individuals, without effective intervention, will develop full-blown diabetes within 5-years.

    It is pretty easy to see that when Sanofi said "initial" US target population for Afrezza is 3.1 million persons - they truly meant "initial".

    The actual US adopters of Afrezza, given a good number of years time for its effectiveness to become widely known among physicians and the diabetic community, could easily reach 9 million. With the estimated global diabetic population in the vicinity of 365 million (depending on statistical source), and currently increasing at ~ 6.5 %, one can easily see how Afrezza adopters globally can eventually surpass 20 million.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    I find your choice of a PE of 15 as valuation metric to be bordering on absurdly conservative....so much so as to be unrealistic and misleading.

    Let's look at some PE of a few other in the biotech/pharma space for comparison.

    PCYC, a dev. biotech similar to MNKD, with revenue, according to Yahoo, of approx. $563 million, but with a profit margin of only 15%, sports a Trailing PE of 147 and a Forward PE of 295!

    REGN, with revenue of approx. $2.63 billion and a profit margin of approx 13%, sports a Trailing PE of approx. 145 and a Forward PE of approx 36.

    CELG, more established, with a revenue of approx. $7.34 billion and a profit margin of approx. 22%, sports a Trailing PE of ~ 65 and a Forward PE of ~ 25.5

    Sanofi, a Big Pharma thrown in just for comparison, has a revenue of approx. $38 billion and profit margin of 'only' approx. 12%, sports a Trailing PE of 26.5 and a Forward PE of approx. 14.5

    So you used a PE metric similar to that commonly applied to Big Pharmas to base your price projections for MNKD share price on? Why would anyone intentionally do that? You are an experienced SA contributor and there is no way you did that by accident.

    Try re-figuring your estimates using a realistic PE commonly used for developmental biotechs, or better, use a P/S of say 16 (similar to that of REGN) or a P/S of 21 (similar to that of PCYC).

    * I find your use of a '15 PE' absurdly misleading.
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:44 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    *Another view, by 'finallyinthemoney' on the YHOO MNKD board - estimates MNKD NPV at $22.15

    "Recently a poster mentioned a quote of approx. $235 for a 90-count box of 4 unit Afrezza cartridges...so I will calculate from that and assume that is a 1-month supply.

    $235 X 12 = $2820.00 annual...rounded to $2800. $2800.00 X Sanofi's 'initial' US target population of 3.1 million Afrezza adopters = $8.68 billion to Sanofi. I will use 24% to approximate Matt's claim of a near 'mid-twenty percent' revenue royalty being the equivalent of the 35% profit sharing arrangement btwn MNKD and Sanofi.
    So, we take $8.68 billion X .24 = $2.08 billion falling to MNKD. Applying the P/S (P/Rev) metric of 16, as REGN is sporting currently, results in $33.28 billion. All left to do is divide by number of MNKD shares outstanding. I decided to use a 475M fully diluted share count (adjust up or down a bit according to your view of the true shares outstanding). So, $33.28 billion divided by 475 million shares = $70 p/share.

    *Utilizing a P/Rev of 18 yields a s/price of ~ $78.82
    *Utilizing a P/Rev of 21, similar to that of PCYC, yields a s/p of $91.96

    Assuming that Sanofi will be able to meet their 'initial' US target....then what is a realistic NPV for MNKD shares? Of course this depends on the time to reach their 3.1M adopters and the discount one wishes to apply to each year. So going with the $70 p/sh (P/Rev of 16), assuming 4 years to target achievement ($70 by 2019), and utilizing a 25% discount p/yr results in a NPV of $22.15

    *Important - we are expecting Afrezza to be available in Europe, and who knows where else, by probably sometime in 2017....these share price projections don't include the additional revenue from expected ROW Afrezza future sales, nor do they attempt to figure for added eventual income from future products or licensing deals involving the Technosphere platform technology.

    One can argue that it won't take 4 years to reach SNY's target, and/or that a 25% discount is too high - regardless, MNKD is obviously way undervalued at ~ $5.75"
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:53 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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