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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • The Time Is Now For Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Simply an outstanding piece of work Steve -
    Oct 30, 2014. 07:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insuline: Significant Upside, Alternative Diabetes Play With A Population Based Cost-Reduction Platform In Diabetes [View article]
    We think the suggestion of SNY sandbagging Afrezza promotion & MNKD shares thus likely remaining static over the coming years is absolutely absurd. First off, Afrezza compliments the offerings of Sanofi, and the simple fact that no other RAA insulin so closely matches the workings of a healthy pancreas argues for widespread acceptance.

    As for concerns regarding... "low visibility on physicians' willingness to prescribe and try Afrezza before long term outcomes trials are completed" - apparently you were unaware of this survey:

    "Diabetes In Control” Medical Professional Survey Recommends Afrezza
    - January 28, 2014

    *Obviously this survey was pre-Afrezza approval...note that the AdCom vote recommending FDA approval was 27 to 1 - and that the AdCom was made up of physicians and diabetic experts.

    "Below is the results of a poll on their website, that asks the question: “Will you recommend MannKind's inhaled insulin Afrezza, if approved?” Poll results: 67.9% vote YES, they will recommend Afrezza 26.4% vote NOT SURE only 5.7% vote NO The poll may be found by doing a google search using the question asked (see above). Below is further information about “Diabetes In Control”: – Quoting from their site: “The Mission of Diabetes In Control is to be the world leader of current and accurate on-line diabetes information for medical professionals, and to promote increased understanding of the care and treatment of diabetes, ultimately helping the medical professional to empower the patient to better self-care.” – ISMP, the Institute for Safe Medication Practices”, has established a partnership with “Diabetes In Control”. ISMP “is the nations only 501c (3) nonprofit organization devoted entirely to medication error prevention and safe medication use. ISMP represents over 35 years of experience in helping healthcare practitioners keep patients safe, and continues to lead efforts to improve the medication use process. The organization is known and respected worldwide as the premier resource for impartial, timely, and accurate medication safety information.” – Quoting Steven V. Edelman, MD, Founder, Taking Control of Your Diabetes (TCOYD), and 2009 ADA Diabetes Educator of the Year: “I appreciate what Steve Freed, Dave Joffe, and Andrew Young are doing at Diabetes in Control to keep timely and important information easily at the fingertips of providers caring for those with diabetes. Those that think, the medical community is not already starting to promote Afrezza, need to think again… "

    *Attribution - the above content is taken directly from a 10/12/14 posting by 'kevinmik' on the YHOO MNKD board.

    So it seems your contentions regarding MNKD's Afrezza are quite flawed. As regards Insuline Medicals's product - time will tell.
    Oct 28, 2014. 05:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How MannKind Long Investors Can Profit From Short Raids [View article]
    Unfortunately, I do not have this. Read of this quite awhile back, but will try and find a reference.
    Oct 28, 2014. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How MannKind Long Investors Can Profit From Short Raids [View article]
    Surveys indicate, just in the US, there are roughly 1.5M current RAA (Rapid Acting Analog..Afrezza) users who have expressed absolute disdain for their 'injection' regimen; my guess is most of the remaining ~ 70% Wouldn't be described as looking forward to injections.

    Now it is a pretty safe bet that most of these individuals will be highly motivated, as in calling their physicians within months (more likely weeks) of Afrezza availability, to request an Afrezza RX and make the switch away from injections. But let's be conservative and just take 1M of this ~ 1.5M group (some of course will be smokers or have pulmonary conditions which preclude Afrezza use) - taking this group and figuring say $1700 annual cost for Afrezza (some have guesstimated the actual figure at closer to $2,000) results in ~ $1.7B annual revenue to Sanofi. The partnership deal btwn SNY and MNKD is apparently roughly equivalent to a 'mid-20%' revenue take for MNKD (per MNKD's CFO Matt PFeffer), but let's again be a bit conservative and figure 22%....this results in approx. $375M falling to MNKD from just this highly motivated (to switch from injections) group. Now this group is just US RAA users who absolutely hate to inject...now figure in those who just don't wish to keep injecting when there is a superior alternative which doesn't involve any pain what-so-ever, then figure in similar groups ex-US (of course this will take a bit of time depending on how quickly SNY can get ROW approval). But wait....there is more - remember that studies indicate RAA Insulin use is increasing at roughly 10% annually. And of course don't forget those juicy milestone payments totaling ~ $900M flowing to MNKD as Afrezza users accumulate. And then of course there is the Technosphere platform. And then there is that large group of roughly 6 to 7 million diabetics (again US only) which are currently achieving very poor control with oral meds alone, not to mention the huge group of 75M-plus 'prediabetics' (again just US) who might actually be able, with Afrezza use, to stop their 'condition' from advancing to full-blown diabetes.

    Hmmmm.....greatly reduced need for refrigeration, elimination of injection pain and inconvenience, efficacy which closely mimics that of a healthy pancreas, reduction of the dreaded and potentially fatal hypo-attack (when Afrezza use is optimized - *go ahead and argue shorts but the reduction is genuine per actual Afrezza trial participants, even if FDA refused to acknowledge it).....oh, it is a real tough decision!

    Can you say 'Absolute Blockbuster' (this will be very hard for those short).....for the shorts I recommend starting with the phrase 'Significantly Increasing Revenues for Years to Come'.

    *And from what I am hearing, MNKD is already working on follow-up products and licenses utilizing the Technosphere platform.

    One almost feels sorry for the shorts.....almost like taking candy from a baby - well not quite that bad, but close. Easiest, safest, bet in biotech going.
    Oct 28, 2014. 01:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India picks Israeli anti-tank missile over U.S. model [View news story]
    Congratulations to Israel - I absolutely love it when Israel/Rafael manages to produce a superior product and then can actually win out in the market place as well. The growing ties which are evident between India and Israel is a thing of interest and I think a very fortunate developing trend; the less Israel is reliant and thus controlled by Washington the better for Israel.
    Oct 26, 2014. 06:39 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NewLink Genetics Takes A Shot At Combating Deadly Ebolavirus Infections: Diversification Strategy? [View article]
    I figured it was the same....how many are they likely to have? Anyway, bought on that same news blip....only stock wasn't reacting at first, was really puzzled. Came back and see a 23% spike! Back in the price channel and hopefully follow-thru takes us at least back to recent resistance. Future is quite bright for NLNK, and if they can deliver on the Ebola vaccine, future will be extremely bright. Now if only the Big Money would decide to trigger a long-overdue short squeeze in MNKD; its getting close!
    Oct 13, 2014. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    MNKD stock closed at $4.68 today....October 10th - was above $7 when I told you this BP deal with SNY was negative and the share price was headed south to $6 and below, that shorty was going to cover well below that if the market rolled over.

    What does all your 25 years of being a Professional Analyst tell you now? Still such a great deal George? You may be a great fundamental analyst but you are a very poor trader.....anyone with experience could have told you that the deal with SNY was 'blood in the water' to the shorts and there was trouble ahead.

    Hope you learned not to be quite so arrogant with those who politely disagree with you - but somehow I honestly doubt you have or will. And no I don't expect you to even allow this to be posted, not that anyone would read it if it was.

    I jumped back in today btw, at $4.73 - though I think there is a good chance the shorts can drive the share price down further.....plenty of dry powder.
    Oct 10, 2014. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forbes Thinks Molycorp Is Oversold, Here Is Why They're Wrong [View article]
    Bravo Jesus, but I would of bet that Jesus Romeros was a Latino name - LOL

    A 'former' miner since you were 17...hmmm - And it's is a 'proud' black man btw..... ; )
    Sep 11, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Moving From Short To Long? [View article]
    Indeed, this is possible... would love to see a short squeeze of monumental proportions, but there is a good deal of time for shorty to have his way before those early sales figures are made available to us. I do think if MNKD's major holders would stop loaning out shares to the shorts, and instead accelerate their accumulation, we could have a different ballgame even before those first sales figures are made available. Are you expecting we will get preliminary figures by Feb/March?
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Moving From Short To Long? [View article]
    Congratulations on a prescient call to the short side...no use arguing about that.

    In addition to a powerful and aggressive short position, I think MNKD's recent severe correction had much more to do with disappointment regarding the Sanofi deal structure overall - insultingly low upfront cash payment, no equity stake, lack of transparency regarding specific Sanofi game plan, possible dissatisfaction with the percentage split or milestone payments, initial confusion involving eventual reimbursement for Afrezza development, etc - than over optimistic retail euphoria.

    I personally don't feel the retail expectations regarding the BP deal were unrealistic given Afrezza's tremendous commercial potential, the supposed aggressive BP interest which was alluded to by MNKD, and the time spent by Greenhill working on achieving the best deal. Myself and colleagues felt the absolute minimum upfront cash infusion would be $300 million, and most expected $500 million. I still think that expectation, along with an equity stake by Sanofi, were realistic expectations which would have resulted in a share price rise towards $16 as the very significant short position began to cover; if nothing else, a floor of $10 would have been established.

    Regardless, the deal which emerged provided the perfect tailwind for the short cabal to capitalize on, which they did with renewed gusto.

    Realistic expectations or irrational exuberance aside - you made the right call.

    I personally would like to see the recently tested 200dma retested and hold during further market weakness, before I am convinced the recent share price downside is all in the past. Of course if this teflon market continues to power up past S&P 2000, with short share percentages diminishing for MNKD, then once again you likely will have called the proper inflection point.

    George Rho's (SA contributor) expectation of Afrezza sales reaching the $4 billion mark by 2018/2019 (from memory here) seem reasonably conservative, and with varying discounts applied, sans a serious, long overdue, market downturn in the next 6 months, I get a 1-year share price target of $12 to $16; throw in that market correction anytime soon, and I think the shorts will have no problem covering at $6 or below.
    Aug 25, 2014. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Hi Jeff....thanks for your thoughtful reply - greatly appreciate your prior coverage of MNKD.

    My disappointment aside, indeed, I can only assume MNKD/Greenhill got the best deal which Sanofi was willing to provide.
    Aug 25, 2014. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Yes George, the short interest has gone up... it has been obvious from the daily shares available for borrow, at increasing interest, coupled with the bi-weekly reports, that the shorts were significantly and steadily increasing their already very large bet - it isn't rocket science; truly don't understand why my contention so bothers you. As for my insinuation that this increase of an already extremely aggressive short position, heading into what all expected to be a share price elevating BP deal announcement, is likely indicative of some unsavory foreknowledge by the shorts....really? Such activity paints the shorts as either stupid (something they (as in large short hedge funds) are rarely not guilty of), foolishly reckless akin to one playing chicken with an oncoming freight train, or my contention - you don't have to agree, just an observation on a public forum.

    As for my comment to MS11791 regarding his apparent contention that the paltry upfront payment will help bring Afrezza to its full potential much more quickly, it was simply that, a request for elucidation as it is something I totally disagree with. You act as though my request incensed you for some reason.

    As for use of the $6 figure, or the increased potential for MNKD shares to drop to that figure (or below in a serious market correction)....that is just the next obvious support were shares to drop below the 200dma, nothing more; my criticism as it relates to the deal structure was that with very little additional expense MNKD shares would have likely never fallen below $10, and might easily have risen to $12 or $14.

    Do I honestly think that a company "with some $12 billion in annual cash flow cares about the $20 million? There is no way to know for certain, but judging by their reluctance to provide what I have termed as a truly win/win deal for MNKD, I do suspect that they were, and thus likely continue to play a very rough game with MNKD.

    You make the comment that I 'go on endlessly' about what MNKD should've done and what you should've done or shouldn't have done, with very little basis for anything'....I made one comment/criticism to you regarding your article (and it was based on my missing something, which I readily apologized for - even going back and quoting your remark). As for going on endlessly about what MNKD should have done, or for that matter what Sanofi 'should' have done - you yourself have expressed disappointment, at least initially, with the size of the upfront payment as well as the lack of transparency surrounding the milestone payments....but I guess if YOU acknowledge such short comings with the deal or subsequent transparency provided, well that's just different?
    As for very little basis....we will just have to disagree on that - but the market's reaction to the deal tends to validate my criticisms.

    You admonish me to be happy in the face of what I perceive as a very inadequate deal for MNKD and its shareholders....maybe we just have different 'recovery' periods; possibly related to the differing sizes of our MNKD holdings. My intent wasn't to fortuitously escape a significant negative market reaction to this long awaited BP partnership deal.

    Anyway....live long and prosper - reality is what it is.
    Aug 25, 2014. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Of course they will be accumulating.....the only question is do they start from the current $7 area, or do they wait in hopes that the shorts get a broad-market tailwind which affords the opportunity of accumulation under $6.

    You have made the observation that MNKD obviously knew that this deal would be received poorly, you must also realize that Sanofi was also quite aware of the exceptional deal they had made and thus its likely impact on MNKD share price; nice that you don't really care where MNKD shares are at over the short term, but many retail are not so fortunate - many held from the recent highs, never expecting such a poor deal with such a lack of transparency to even cushion the blow....I mean the insinuations from Al's previous few comments were that shareholders would be quite impressed with the eventual deal. I consider myself extremely lucky in that I sold on the AH's spike, fully cognizant of how this deal would be received - many retail were not so fortunate, especially those who had accumulated near-term options. Another item which strikes me as obvious...the shorts almost certainly knew ahead of time how poorly this deal would be received - nobody doubles down with such boldness the way they did in the weeks leading up to the announcement without having some information which they shouldn't have had.

    On another note.....thanks for the early coverage - your reports likely got a lot of people into MNKD at around $3, even less; hoping you can find another 'early' biotech with similar potential...I have been accumulating NWBO for awhile and just recently began with CLSN
    Aug 24, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    And exactly 'how' would a reasonable upfront cash payment, vs the 'blood in the water' one they received, have hindered Afrezza from reaching its full potentially as quickly as the deal they received.....if you don't mind elucidating a bit.
    Aug 24, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Allied Nevada Gold Second Quarter Edition [View article]
    Regardless the strengths and weaknesses of specific valuation metrics - the simple fact is that ANV "currently" struggles to produce positive Free Cash Flow with gold around $1300 - Hebba, utilizing this "all-in-cost" metric appears merely to provide a more accurate big-picture view of true costs....as far as I can see, 'current' true costs. He is quite upfront about the methodology....even stating: "Ultimately, this analysis is best used as a first step to further investigative work, and that is our purpose with releasing this series." Personally, I value the effort and insight offered from the analysis, while I understand this 'all-in' approach is just a tool, one tool, to be used in a process of evaluation. It really is up to the individual investor to understand the tool, and I find no attempt by the author to disguise, or mislead.....just the opposite in fact.
    Aug 24, 2014. 12:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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