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  • Activision Blizzard Fails To Have Worlds Patents Ruled Completely Invalid; Case Marches On [View article]
    It's all in one's relative perspective isn't it? Granted, there is still enough potential in the WDDD case, stemming from the relatively low MC as has been argued, to make WDDD a decent investment given a few years and a string of legal victories, but to argue that 'losing' damages from ~ 15-plus years of past be left with only ~ 3 years 'worth' seems particularly ludicrous; sure, I guess compared to having the patents totally invalidated because of some clerical error, but this ruling tremendously reduces the potential for profit from holding this investment. My guess is that WDDD will now be subject to the infuriating and withering 'dead-money' shorting tactics which some entity (I wonder who) has been employing so successfully against VRNG. ATVI would have to have rocks for brains to settle now for anything except pennies on the dollar vs what they were facing before the judge invalidated such a huge chunk of past damages. Oh well....luckily I was out of WDDD when this all hit, and was able to enter at 10 cents. As is so frequently the case, it is really the United States' IN-justice system which should be indicted.
    Mar 14, 2014. 07:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Subconscious Issues Influence FDA AdCom Voting On Afrezza? [View article] should really quit with the 'betrayal thing' - it is laughable and completely unjustifiable. Have you ever heard of the journalistic phrase - 'this is off the record'?? You think there might be a reason for such precautions? You seem quite enamored of the martyrs' mantle, viewing yourself as quite the victim and supremely annoyed, or is it embarrassed, that Mr. Rho revealed that you use tarot cards in making your investing decisions and recommendations. If it was such a secret, why did you reveal it. George Rho did everyone a great service by revealing that fact, a fact which you should have revealed upfront to your readers btw. If you want things kept secret, then you reveal them to only your lawyer and your priest....pretty much everyone else has, to varying degrees, a duty to the truth first and the public at large, especially journalists who write with the intent of influencing the decisions of others.
    Mar 7, 2014. 05:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Subconscious Issues Influence FDA AdCom Voting On Afrezza? [View article]
    pranamyay -

    That my friend is just the point and beauty of Afrezza - it greatly reduces the need for such insulin dose micro-management which is required for optimum results from insulin injections!

    In all of my DD research (quite extensive btw) I have run across a number of those who have actually used Afrezza in the trial setting, or rather I have read of their experiences and impressions, and they have all been extremely positive; they have all reported superior blood glucose control using Afrezza...not to mention the tremendous convenience advantages.

    You may indeed be a pharmacist - if so you should be expected to report even a bit more accurately about Pfizer's 'failed' inhalation insulin 'Exubera', instead of implying that such failure was the result of it not working and then trying to extrapolate a likely failure for MNKD's Afrezza. Exubera, with its huge bong like delivery device, was a "commercial" failure because the delivery device was 10 times larger than MNKD's whistle size device and as such only a small percentage of insulin dependent diabetics were willing to make the switch. BTW, my research leads me to believe that MNKD's technosphere-insulin product 'Afrezza' is not only magnitudes more convenient than Exubera, but technically it is just a significant improvement over Pfizer' simply, for a number of technical/chemical reasons, works much better and leaves almost no residue in the lungs. For those who wish to persue this you can start by researching the difference in 'monomer' chemical structure to 'hexamer' chemical structure as it relates insulin and the diffusibility of the two into the blood stream....Afrezza is of the monomer structure vs Eubera's hexamer structure.

    You also make the interesting statement that 'Pfizer already failed, why even try'.....are you serious? Gee, I guess once something has been tried and it hasn't worked....well I guess by your reasoning that one should just quit! Quite lucky aren't we that the early pioneers of flight such as the Wright Brothers didn't ascribe to your philosophy. Of course you are welcome to your opinion.....but my research indicates your opinion isn't based on any serious due diligence whatsoever.
    Mar 7, 2014. 05:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Subconscious Issues Influence FDA AdCom Voting On Afrezza? [View article]
    Excellent comment yazzbro -

    Another superb example of FDA sabotaging a developmental biotech's AdCom meeting was Arena's first one a few years back. They stacked the AdCom with unqualified participants, some of which admitted that they couldn't even interpret the data and wondered why they were picked for the panel. The FDA also of course not only chooses the questions to be answered by the AdCom participants, but also it is an FDA employee who chairs the meeting....and who can be extremely biased if they choose. Since the unexpected AdCom requirement surfaced, the shorts have been unusually bold in increasing their bets. It is such a total shame that even though Afrezza has been demonstrated, on approximately 6,000 trial participants over a number of years, to be both safer and superior in a number of metrics than anything on the market, that our greatest fear is that of a captured FDA who may willingly put the financial interests of one or two Big Pharma outfits above those of tens millions of diabetics.

    Personally I see little to no need for an AdCom at all; Afrezza has never missed an endpoint and it will, through superior glucose control, near elimination of the dreaded insulin induced hypoglycemic shock or low blood sugar attack, and increased compliance, actually save lives - IF the FDA does the obvious and right thing. The FDA's reputation is so tarnished by so many instances....we can only hope that the current FDA Commissioner is aware and determined not to allow past abuses to be repeated at MNKD's upcoming AdCom. Lives will be literally saved by Afrezza approval...and inversely, lives will be lost needlessly if it is again kept from the US insulin dependent diabetic population. BTW, there is considerable speculation among numerous highly qualified experts in diabetic care that early use of Afrezza among the huge 'pre-diabetic' population might actually keep them from ever progressing into full blown T2 diabetes.
    Mar 6, 2014. 05:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argos Therapeutics: Cancer Immunotherapy Using A Nobel Prize Winning Discovery [View article]
    It seems Needham just initiated ARGS at a 'Buy' with a $17 target; Stifel with a $17 target; Piper Jaffray with an $18 target; and JMP with a $17 target. It seems most are expecting positive trial results for AGS-003, which is in the pivotal study for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC); but then 1H2016 is a long ways off. It seems to me they are likely going to be seeking, or are already shopping for, more capital. Obviously DNDN has had a very tough time turning a profit with their technology.....I wonder how the ARGS model, assuming P3 success and FDA thumbs up in 2017, differs. Too early for me to invest in this here. NWBO looks to be along quite a bit further with their technology and P3 trial, but of course their's is not for mRCC....though the technologies appear similar.
    Mar 4, 2014. 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank You For Riding The MannKind Catalyst Train - Please Exit Safely At The Next Available Station [View article]
    G.Rho.....thanks for shedding a bit of light on the author's 'methods', as per his prior admission to you. - LOL

    Not that anyone would be the least bit influenced by this 'article'.

    For newbies possibly unfamiliar with Afrezza's commercial potential (assuming approval of course), I have included one recent message board post.

    "US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010" by richlittle

    "Using these figures one can extrapolate, using a more conservative say 10% annual increase, that US insulin sales in 2014 should reach ~ $11.5 that may be low and of course not all of that is prandial insulin sales. 2015 figures should be about $12.6 B-plus, again this will be low if the yearly increase is closer to the 15% jump reported from 2010 to 2011.

    Just thought I would throw these figures out there for others. Seems that 2015 US 'prandial' insulin sales might likely be around $9.5 a 20% capture should be around the $2 B figure just for the US come sometime in 2015.

    Feel free to apply a P/S ratio to that figure....say 10 X like CELG, 12 X like Jazz, or even 16 X like REGN.
    *Just ballpark figures....guessing 75% of insulin sales fall into the prandial market. Apologies if these figures are off by a sig. amount.

    **Using a 10 X P/S metric similar to CELG's....let us assume the US 'prandial' insulin market is $10 billion sometime in 2015 (prandial only..roughly 75% of the total insulin market) - some consider this figure low btw. A 20% capture rate would equate to a $2 billion revenue stream at that point. Now applying our P/S metric of 10 X and you have a MC of $20 billion. Lets say MNKD has 400 million shares, so we divide our $20 B MC by the 400 M shares and we get a share price of $50; if by chance we have 500 M shares, then the s/p with that P/S metric of 10 is $40. Now keep in mind that these figures are for a 20% capture of just the US market. It seems that though 70% plus of the global diabetic population resides outside the US (sorry can't remember the exact figure - it may be over 75%), the US accounts for ~ 50% by $ amount of insulin we can safely double the s/p for a 20% 'global' prandial insulin market capture. That gives us a s/p of somewhere around $100 if we have 400 M shares, or $80 p/sh if we go with the 500 M shares. You do the math for 2016, 2017, etc. I'm expecting a min. 40% capture rate btw."
    Feb 27, 2014. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of MannKind: Reach For The Technosphere [View instapost]
    After demonstrating over and over and over Afrezza's superior safety and efficacy profiles, not to mention the likely very significant positive impact on compliance, especially for the young and newly insulin dependent (my supposition here), MNKD once again finds itself before the FDA. Afrezza should have been approved years ago, but hopefully this time the FDA will actually do the right thing for the world's diabetics. It is my contention, and I think the evidence clearly indicates as much, that Afrezza will actually not just increase quality of life and overall health through superior glucose control (read that as saving society vast sums on health care which will now NOT be needed), but actually save lives by effectively decreasing the incidence of severe low blood glucose episodes (hypoglycemic shock) among those who switch over to Afrezza. One could, I guess, extrapolate that the 'unavailability' of Afrezza for the last couple of years has actually cost lives - but then what is done is done. Such a shame that we are all holding our breath, hoping the FDA will actually do the right thing and approve what is clearly a safer and superior treatment.
    Feb 24, 2014. 11:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo's Shareholder Update And What Investors Need To Know About Patent Reform And This Patent Hero [View article]
    Absolutely love your integrity Justin....your track record speaks for itself.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Appreciate your precision KP.....
    Jan 29, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    "And please note--5.7% of the patient discontinued the drug because of coughs. Don't you think that attending physicians will have an issue with this problem--they sure did with Exubera."

    Oh puleeeze - and you don't think that 6% of any given patient population will discontinue a certain treatment for a variety of reasons....that "5.7%" figure actually argues in favor of Afrezza's likely commercial success! You don't think, were Afrezza the current standard of care, and there was a trial of injectable insulin, that 6% would quit the trial due to the pain and inconvenience of the injections!! Think about the absurdity of your argument. It turns out that the 'cough' which you site goes away after the first week or so....had these trial participants hung in there just a bit longer it is likely their coughs would have vanished as well. Let's suppose, for arguments sake, that 6% of potential Afrezza users just can't shake the what? Nobody ever said that Afrezza would capture 100% of the market. Do you realize that Afrezza will be a blockbuster if it captures 5% of the market? By my figures/extrapolation sometime in 2017 global prandial insulin sales are projected to be in the vicinity of $23.5 billion - just a 25% capture equates to roughly $6 billion in revenue....for comparison consider CELG with a current similar share count to MNKD and a current annual revenue of approx. $6 billion. Slap on CELG's P/S metric of ~ get a s/p of ~ $170. Split it in two so as to account for a partner if you like....still indicates a s/p in the vicinity of $80. Now if Afrezza were to capture 40% by then, which I consider is easily achievable, and you then have a potential annual revenue stream of $9 billion by 2017/2018; keep in mind that insulin use has been increasing globally about 12% each year. Also keep in mind that a number of the world's diabetes experts are thinking that much earlier use of insulin might keep the huge population of pre-diabetics from ever progressing into full blown diabetes.
    Jan 23, 2014. 12:46 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    Your apparent implication that Exubera and Afrezza are so similar as to almost certainly receive the same degree of acceptance among physicians and potential recipients couldn't be further from accurate....Exubera simply was a commercial flop which by chemical/physical design is inferior to Afrezza in efficacy, convenience, and safety (the diminished lung function/residue from Exubera use vs. Afrezza). As regards your apparent adamant belief that physicians will be overwhelmingly resistant to prescribing Afrezza....numerous large professionally conducted surveys, one involving over 600 physician responses, indicates just the opposite of what you contend; to save you the trouble indications are that over 80% (from memory) of physician respondents expect to prescribe Afrezza to their insulin dependent diabetics (except where contraindicated by label restrictions of course). You fail totally to back up your contentions with facts, simply because the facts argue against your position.

    Seems bizarre to honestly doubt that 2 out of ten insulin dependent diabetics will almost immediately upon Afrezza availability (give that percentage maybe 2 to 3 months) be contacting their physicians for a prescription....from there, as word of mouth and advertising kicks in, I expect Afrezza to easily capture at least 40% of the prandial insulin market; granted, to reach 60% market capture will likely take a few years. Imagine no more pre-meal injections, no refrigeration, superior efficacy, and sig. increased safety.
    Jan 22, 2014. 10:29 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rexahn Pharmaceutical Shares Are Still A Buy Despite Recent Volatility [View article]
    The recent capital raise at $1.05 (plus warrants) seems likely to put a floor under the s/p at around the $.95 area - but as regards the very early stages and the lengthy timeline involved to bring even the most advanced pipeline candidate to commercial success are likely spot on. One has to wonder if that recent meteoric s/p rise wasn't pretty much connected to and coordinated with Roth.....was it a pump-n-dump(?) - not in the classical nefarious sense, but is it way early to expect only a short consolidation before the 2nd stage ignition sends the s/p past $2...yeah, I would think so. OTOH when a developmental biotech hooks up with an aggressive 'patron', even at such early stage (pre-P2 results), then one can never be sure; in other words, I wouldn't be too quick to label this the proverbial dead-money.
    Jan 20, 2014. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    And that, the well known//well deserved reputation for corruption within FDA, unfortunately is the real fear for all who wish to see Afrezza available to the US diabetic population. Whose ox stands to be most severely gored, and the political influence, direct or indirect, which they have with FDA. I am doubting they will outright refuse approval, but I can see them cluttering up the label sufficiently to greatly hinder Afrezza's market penetration - and sadly, I think they would do this intentionally. Luckily, there is always the EMEA and rest of world as well.
    Jan 8, 2014. 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    C S Strum - pure BS

    What an absurd ridiculous comment.....the average insulin dependent diabetic requires from 3 to 5 prandial injections and 1 or 2 basal injections per day.

    Only roughly 5% of the diabetic population fall into the Type-1 category.

    Nice try Shorty - you better cover soon, as Afrezza is both superior in efficacy and safety to any other fast acting insulin on the market; it will quickly capture 20% of any market where it is available, eventually capturing over 40% of the market.
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    Absolutely dynamite first effort on this MNKD report.....just a bit of advice though - you shouldn't try to cram everything into too few paragraphs, it is okay to write a bit more in depth! LOL : )
    Jan 6, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment