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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • Thank You For Riding The MannKind Catalyst Train - Please Exit Safely At The Next Available Station [View article]
    G.Rho.....thanks for shedding a bit of light on the author's 'methods', as per his prior admission to you. - LOL

    Not that anyone would be the least bit influenced by this 'article'.

    For newbies possibly unfamiliar with Afrezza's commercial potential (assuming approval of course), I have included one recent message board post.

    "US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010" by richlittle

    "Using these figures one can extrapolate, using a more conservative say 10% annual increase, that US insulin sales in 2014 should reach ~ $11.5 B....now that may be low and of course not all of that is prandial insulin sales. 2015 figures should be about $12.6 B-plus, again this will be low if the yearly increase is closer to the 15% jump reported from 2010 to 2011.

    Just thought I would throw these figures out there for others. Seems that 2015 US 'prandial' insulin sales might likely be around $9.5 B.....so a 20% capture should be around the $2 B figure just for the US come sometime in 2015.

    Feel free to apply a P/S ratio to that figure....say 10 X like CELG, 12 X like Jazz, or even 16 X like REGN.
    *Just ballpark figures....guessing 75% of insulin sales fall into the prandial market. Apologies if these figures are off by a sig. amount.

    **Using a 10 X P/S metric similar to CELG's....let us assume the US 'prandial' insulin market is $10 billion sometime in 2015 (prandial only..roughly 75% of the total insulin market) - some consider this figure low btw. A 20% capture rate would equate to a $2 billion revenue stream at that point. Now applying our P/S metric of 10 X and you have a MC of $20 billion. Lets say MNKD has 400 million shares, so we divide our $20 B MC by the 400 M shares and we get a share price of $50; if by chance we have 500 M shares, then the s/p with that P/S metric of 10 is $40. Now keep in mind that these figures are for a 20% capture of just the US market. It seems that though 70% plus of the global diabetic population resides outside the US (sorry can't remember the exact figure - it may be over 75%), the US accounts for ~ 50% by $ amount of insulin sales....so we can safely double the s/p for a 20% 'global' prandial insulin market capture. That gives us a s/p of somewhere around $100 if we have 400 M shares, or $80 p/sh if we go with the 500 M shares. You do the math for 2016, 2017, etc. I'm expecting a min. 40% capture rate btw."
    Feb 27, 2014. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of MannKind: Reach For The Technosphere [View instapost]
    After demonstrating over and over and over Afrezza's superior safety and efficacy profiles, not to mention the likely very significant positive impact on compliance, especially for the young and newly insulin dependent (my supposition here), MNKD once again finds itself before the FDA. Afrezza should have been approved years ago, but hopefully this time the FDA will actually do the right thing for the world's diabetics. It is my contention, and I think the evidence clearly indicates as much, that Afrezza will actually not just increase quality of life and overall health through superior glucose control (read that as saving society vast sums on health care which will now NOT be needed), but actually save lives by effectively decreasing the incidence of severe low blood glucose episodes (hypoglycemic shock) among those who switch over to Afrezza. One could, I guess, extrapolate that the 'unavailability' of Afrezza for the last couple of years has actually cost lives - but then what is done is done. Such a shame that we are all holding our breath, hoping the FDA will actually do the right thing and approve what is clearly a safer and superior treatment.
    Feb 24, 2014. 11:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo's Shareholder Update And What Investors Need To Know About Patent Reform And This Patent Hero [View article]
    Absolutely love your integrity Justin....your track record speaks for itself.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Slays Goliath: Vringo Awarded Billion-Dollar Victory Over Google [View article]
    Appreciate your precision KP.....
    Jan 29, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    "And please note--5.7% of the patient discontinued the drug because of coughs. Don't you think that attending physicians will have an issue with this problem--they sure did with Exubera."

    Oh puleeeze - and you don't think that 6% of any given patient population will discontinue a certain treatment for a variety of reasons....that "5.7%" figure actually argues in favor of Afrezza's likely commercial success! You don't think, were Afrezza the current standard of care, and there was a trial of injectable insulin, that 6% would quit the trial due to the pain and inconvenience of the injections!! Think about the absurdity of your argument. It turns out that the 'cough' which you site goes away after the first week or so....had these trial participants hung in there just a bit longer it is likely their coughs would have vanished as well. Let's suppose, for arguments sake, that 6% of potential Afrezza users just can't shake the cough.....so what? Nobody ever said that Afrezza would capture 100% of the market. Do you realize that Afrezza will be a blockbuster if it captures 5% of the market? By my figures/extrapolation sometime in 2017 global prandial insulin sales are projected to be in the vicinity of $23.5 billion - just a 25% capture equates to roughly $6 billion in revenue....for comparison consider CELG with a current similar share count to MNKD and a current annual revenue of approx. $6 billion. Slap on CELG's P/S metric of ~ 11.....you get a s/p of ~ $170. Split it in two so as to account for a partner if you like....still indicates a s/p in the vicinity of $80. Now if Afrezza were to capture 40% by then, which I consider is easily achievable, and you then have a potential annual revenue stream of $9 billion by 2017/2018; keep in mind that insulin use has been increasing globally about 12% each year. Also keep in mind that a number of the world's diabetes experts are thinking that much earlier use of insulin might keep the huge population of pre-diabetics from ever progressing into full blown diabetes.
    Jan 23, 2014. 12:46 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    Your apparent implication that Exubera and Afrezza are so similar as to almost certainly receive the same degree of acceptance among physicians and potential recipients couldn't be further from accurate....Exubera simply was a commercial flop which by chemical/physical design is inferior to Afrezza in efficacy, convenience, and safety (the diminished lung function/residue from Exubera use vs. Afrezza). As regards your apparent adamant belief that physicians will be overwhelmingly resistant to prescribing Afrezza....numerous large professionally conducted surveys, one involving over 600 physician responses, indicates just the opposite of what you contend; to save you the trouble indications are that over 80% (from memory) of physician respondents expect to prescribe Afrezza to their insulin dependent diabetics (except where contraindicated by label restrictions of course). You fail totally to back up your contentions with facts, simply because the facts argue against your position.

    Seems bizarre to honestly doubt that 2 out of ten insulin dependent diabetics will almost immediately upon Afrezza availability (give that percentage maybe 2 to 3 months) be contacting their physicians for a prescription....from there, as word of mouth and advertising kicks in, I expect Afrezza to easily capture at least 40% of the prandial insulin market; granted, to reach 60% market capture will likely take a few years. Imagine no more pre-meal injections, no refrigeration, superior efficacy, and sig. increased safety.
    Jan 22, 2014. 10:29 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rexahn Pharmaceutical Shares Are Still A Buy Despite Recent Volatility [View article]
    The recent capital raise at $1.05 (plus warrants) seems likely to put a floor under the s/p at around the $.95 area - but as regards the very early stages and the lengthy timeline involved to bring even the most advanced pipeline candidate to commercial success are likely spot on. One has to wonder if that recent meteoric s/p rise wasn't pretty much connected to and coordinated with Roth.....was it a pump-n-dump(?) - not in the classical nefarious sense, but is it way early to expect only a short consolidation before the 2nd stage ignition sends the s/p past $2...yeah, I would think so. OTOH when a developmental biotech hooks up with an aggressive 'patron', even at such early stage (pre-P2 results), then one can never be sure; in other words, I wouldn't be too quick to label this the proverbial dead-money.
    Jan 20, 2014. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    And that, the well known//well deserved reputation for corruption within FDA, unfortunately is the real fear for all who wish to see Afrezza available to the US diabetic population. Whose ox stands to be most severely gored, and the political influence, direct or indirect, which they have with FDA. I am doubting they will outright refuse approval, but I can see them cluttering up the label sufficiently to greatly hinder Afrezza's market penetration - and sadly, I think they would do this intentionally. Luckily, there is always the EMEA and rest of world as well.
    Jan 8, 2014. 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    C S Strum - pure BS

    What an absurd ridiculous comment.....the average insulin dependent diabetic requires from 3 to 5 prandial injections and 1 or 2 basal injections per day.

    Only roughly 5% of the diabetic population fall into the Type-1 category.

    Nice try Shorty - you better cover soon, as Afrezza is both superior in efficacy and safety to any other fast acting insulin on the market; it will quickly capture 20% of any market where it is available, eventually capturing over 40% of the market.
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    Absolutely dynamite first effort on this MNKD report.....just a bit of advice though - you shouldn't try to cram everything into too few paragraphs, it is okay to write a bit more in depth! LOL : )
    Jan 6, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Minerals: An Interesting Bullish Case But Major Risk Remain [View article]
    Excellent point regarding the tax credits.....puts a different spin on the potential attractiveness of RBY as an acquisition.
    Dec 19, 2013. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Race To Treat Stage III Melanoma Just Got A Lot More Interesting [View article]
    Agreed re. Provectus Pharmaceuticals (OTCQB:PVCT) and the apparent phenomenal efficacy of PV-10 in MM; this company, in spite of the recent attention and share price appreciation, still sports a MC of ~ $200M and appears to be flying under the radar of most.

    Latest P2 indications, presented recently at ECCO, have PV-10 achieving a 51% ORR (26% CR & 25% PR) among melanoma patients (stage III - IV) refractory to a median of 6 prior interventions!

    My understanding is that PVCT has been awarded orphan drug status and has just concluded a meeting with FDA Oncology Division...so investors have to wait until specifics are released as regards the path to be designated for eventual approval; some indications the company has sought 'breakthrough therapy designation', or there is the 'accelerated approval' route as well. With such stunning indications of efficacy in a trial population which has proved wholly resistant to numerous other treatment interventions, one could speculate that the FDA might just grant the breakthrough therapy designation outright and forego the need for a larger P3 trial. It should be noted that Pfizer now has 2 senior persons on the PVCT board, and that PVCT leadership has apparently not been shy in expressing their intention to eventually sell the company.

    *Indications that PV-10 may have efficacy with liver and lung cancers as well.
    **There appears to be some rumor that PV-10 has achieved even more impressive indications for efficacy among recipients in their compassionate use program (CUP).

    From a 10/02/2013 'pharmiweb' writeup - "Metastatic Melanoma: blistering in PV-10 treatment predicts good outcome" :

    "The take home message is that if you have injectable tumours and inject them with PV-10 there’s a one in two chance that you will achieve a clinical response, and for these patients an additional one in two chance that a non injected (bystander) lesion will respond,” said Sanjiv Agarwala, the Principal Investigator of the study from St. Luke's Hospital Bethlehem, Pennsylvania."

    http://bit.ly/1c2FG7V
    Dec 18, 2013. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Minerals: An Interesting Bullish Case But Major Risk Remain [View article]
    Thanks for your input S.E.Wells - you never fail to bring valuable insight to the discussion at hand.
    Dec 18, 2013. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brigus Gold Will Need More Cash [View article]
    Considering those latest drill results....a buyout of BRD seems a no-brainer. Besides AUY, who do you suppose is likely to be most interested in BRD?
    Dec 3, 2013. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Provectus Pharmaceuticals Up 17% In A Month; Potential Still Huge [View article]
    Just beginning some DD, but have to admit that a 3-year delay stretches the bounds of credulity here.....I mean considering the apparent efficacy - still, stranger things have happened, especially when dealing with a basically green mngt. team; at least they have the guy from PFE on board. An genuine update with some hard verifiable stats on the CUP results might go a long way to dispel doubt.
    Nov 28, 2013. 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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