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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • Northwest And ImmunoCellular Can Both Be Big Winners With Their Cancer Vaccines [View article]
    Congrats on the prescient timing Larry -

    NWBO(D) share price just went vertical today, ending up almost 100% at $10.95 on only roughly 220,000 shares...apparently spiked briefly to $20 at one point! Market cap has a bit more than doubled in just a few days since the split. Guess now they can raise that $25 M at a much much nicer s/p.
    Sep 28 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest And ImmunoCellular Can Both Be Big Winners With Their Cancer Vaccines [View article]
    Nice article Larry -

    Often cancer treatments are approved which achieve only minimal increases in overall survival, sometimes on no increase in OS but improvements in quality of life due to lessened side effect profiles - yet here we have a pretty much still under the radar treatment, in P-3 trial, potentially increasing median survival in GBM by 3 fold (though trial endpoint is PFS as you indicated) from a company with a MC under $150 M...pocket change for big pharma! I abslolutely love the fact they have wisely persued the dual tract approval approach involving both US and European trial sites - brilliant insurance against the potential of obstructionist goalpost moving tactics the FDA has become so infamous for.

    Seems a bit unrealistic to speculate that the cost of treatment might be equivalent in the US, Europe and rest of world... if one even reduces your s/p target estimate by 50%, which I do, the upside is still just amazing grand slam potential.

    I would be interested in the differece between cost of manufacturing DCVax-L vs IMUC's ICT-107...my guess is the tumor lysate approach cuts well into the profit margin potential. From your article it is clear that approx. 90% of GBM patients who undergo surgery will provide sufficient tumor for 3 years worth of vaccine....what about boosters for those who may live 4 and 5 years? My understanding is that from the 16 patient phase-1 trial, IMUC's vaccine has at least 6...maybe 8, (of 16) recipients who have lived for over 4 years with 3 of those achieving 5 year survival - so I had the impression that ICT-107 was in the lead as regards OS...of course there is that seeming detail which may limit IMUC's treatment to only about half the overall target population.

    As regards durability/storage...is there a marked difference regarding 'shelf life' btwn the two - for instance does one or both of these treatments need to remain refrigerated following production?

    *Interesting trading today immediately following the R/S....only roughly 10,000 shares traded, at least that we are privy to, with a 20% s/p appreciation! You mentioned the ' up to' $25 million capital raise upcoming....so maybe 6 million shares at $4?? Obviously the tutes weren't stampeding into Northwest today, but they sure weren't shorting it either. Considering the potential, the wise dual tract P-3 trial approach, and the inherent platform technology...astounding that BP hasn't just made them an offer already.

    Thanks for shedding a bit more light on Northwest Bio....for everyone involved, investors and patients - hopefully DCVax-L turns out to be even more effective than the P-1 trials suggest.
    Sep 26 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICT-107 Into Perspective: Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks Brian for all your efforts re. IMUC - truly you have gone the extra mile with this one.

    Looking forward to the updated article/interview when it is cleared for publication and any insights you have regarding NWBO as well.
    Aug 31 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics' DCVax Cancer Vaccines Could Lead To A Sea Change In Cancer Treatment [View article]
    Makes perfect sense to me - brilliant move if one has complete confidence in the likelihood of replicating stunning efficacy achieved in phase-1 trial....of course the concurrent European efforts is a very nice insurance policy when one is dealing with the FDA which allows them to more comfortably make such a jump. If you don't understand this, you don't understand the FDA reputation for absurd obstructionist, goal-post moving, treachery. Seems likely as well that NWBO will R/S at 6:1 or greater, and then dilute to raise money - waiting and watching as I expect one may be able to acquire shares at a 40 to 50 percent reduction with luck.
    Aug 23 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Flyer On This Cash-Rich Biotech With Recent Insider Buying [View article]
    SQNM mngt. definately doesn't act as a group which is worried about competition - instead they act as though they expect sales to continue to beat their guidance, or they are pretty confident that another major provider is close to signing on...or both.
    Aug 15 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A123 Systems: An Object Lesson In Toxic Financing [View article]
    Thanks John - not another author on SA I look forward to reading more than you.
    Aug 6 12:13 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Provenge Needs To Pull Itself Together Soon [View article]
    Ted, excellent response......always with such class.

    Who knows what comes along in that extra avg. year of quality life, life free from the terrible ravages of chemo.....one never knows who the lucky outliers will be which live for many years after Provenge treatment. I truly believe that the onco docs are only now even beginning to realize the true potential of Provenge administered at optimum times for best true efficacy - I look forward to the synergies which will be achieved as Provenge is combined with other new treatments soon to be available.
    Jul 25 09:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Provenge Needs To Pull Itself Together Soon [View article]
    MoneyHawk -
    Proven is not chemo.....not surprised you have made only 2 comments!

    A subset of individuals, individuals with advanced unresponsive prostate cancer who have on average about 18 months to live - this subset of persons receive tremendous benefit from Provenge treatment...they have been known to recover and live for 6 or 7 years!

    Imagine you have the choice of ineffective chemo which makes you so sick you likely despair of living anyway, or receiving Provenge which has only very mild transitory side effects like a mild case of the flu - and possibly living for years further.

    Guys at death's door, treated with Provenge, often feel so good once it kicks in they resume playing golf! Of course Provenge given earlier in the disease process, before chemo has about destroyed the immune system, will only increase the size of that recipient subset who live additional years. Now combine Provenge with another miracle treatment and you are likely to achieve the equivalent of complete remission.....think about it, try and educate yourself a bit, then engage brain before opening mouth - it works so much better that way and people don't laugh at you then.
    Jul 25 04:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Look At Galena's NeuVax While Lowering Analyst's Raised Red Flags [View article]
    Excellent Rich....that post says a lot.
    Jun 19 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trovagene: The 1 Stock That Could've Saved Steve Jobs' Life [View article]
    Tsk tsk tsk James! Truly a pathetic piece you have tried to foist off on the unwary. Are you familiar with the term intellectual honesty? As for a number of current TROV mngt. types coming from SQNM....I think most would consider that an overall negative. As regards TROV.....hope they can achieve all you envision for them - but honestly you might check into an integriy exam in the mean time. Still, sans the 'problems' with your piece, I do appreciate hearing of TROV for the first time...will definately do some proper DD and hope you are correct as regards their true potential.

    P.S. - why not do the 'right' thing and correct your statements regarding SQNM. The only thing holding SQNM back currently is the patent litigation cases - if they win a preliminary injunction in a couple of weeks the s/p appreciation will resume as the huge short interest is forced to cover. If they fail with the legal route, then all bets are off as the Ariosa/LabCorp test in much much cheaper.

    BTW....congrats on that INHX call - that was indeed outstanding.
    Jun 19 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoCellular Therapeutics ICT-107 To Impress At ASCO 2012 [View article]
    IMUC's ICT-107 indeed has achieved truly astounding efficacy results....small sample size or no, a near 4-fold 4-year survival increase over historic norms (and still counting) indicates they are onto something amazing. How IMUC languishes with a paltry market cap of roughly $130 million and has escaped BP acquisition is beyond me.
    Jun 10 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop-Start Realities And EV Fantasies [View article]
    Hi John, thanks again for another thought provoking article.....and of course the comment give-n-take is always fun as well.

    Any comments on MXWL's precipitous s/p slide since the recent earnings beat with minor downside guidance? Short interest has been slowly climbing, and recent s/p action would seem to indicate the next SI report will reflect no let-up on that front. Granted all the likely causative factors leading to a long overdue market correction at least, - still, seems from the start/stop projections you refer to that MXWL should have a bright future especially as the battery technology from AXPW doesn't appear quite ready for prime time (my assumption only for lack of that definitive first big auto contract win). I see you mentioned the pairing of the AGM battery with the MXWL supercapacitor module - yet the s/p action indicates the shorts are confident further blood can be wrung from this puppy. I am wondering if you think MXWL has begun to place on the acquisition short list of JCI or whoever? Or inversely have the shorts got wind of some major yet to be officially announced market setback looming for MXWL? Considering the recent very poor earnings report out of XIDE, I can see them being hammered into heavy oversold territory - yet they are just borderline on that front.....but look at MXWL on the RSI!

    Best2U always
    May 22 10:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Targeted Chemotherapy: The Perfect Balance Between Safety And Efficacy? [View article]
    >> I'll have a look and get back probably tonight..<<

    "probably tonight"?.......ummmm, we are waiting?
    May 19 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cell Therapeutics Has Huge Potential To Double Or Triple Soon [View article]
    May 10...
    >>Cell Therapeutics reports Pixuvri approved in EU as monotherapy to treat adults with multiply relapsed or refractory aggressive non-Hodgkin B-cell lymphomas<<

    CTIC closed at $1.15 for a 15% gain...well off the day's high of $1.35 - not exactly a real WS vote of confidence; would have thought the s/p would have at least hit $1.60ish! Appears there were around 28 M shares short going into this EU approval announcement, and the days volume approached 9 million....obviously the shorts didn't panic.
    May 10 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vical Inc.: A $3 Biotech Lottery Ticket I Am Buying Now [View article]
    >>Vical files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering - 4/04/2012

    Interesting......hmmmmm
    May 4 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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