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in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
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  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    First off a P/S multiple of 8 seems oddly and unrealistically low - why not utilize a P/S multiple of say 16ish, similar to that of REGN, or maybe the 27ish P/S multiple of PCYC, or even the 36ish P/S multiple which ISIS is sporting? Anyway - it's your model, but it of course makes a huge difference.

    Also, as you are likely aware, or should be, the reports beginning to accumulate from early Afrezza adopters indicate efficacy far surpassing what was achieved in the recent approval trials, not to mention superior safety (as one has to really try to get a hypo while using Afrezza), and superior convenience (translate that as increased compliance); afrezzauser (Sam Finta...Afrezza trial participant and AdCom Speaker) and others are reporting non-diabetic BG levels and 'time within range' numbers which they never have achieved previously. So considering this amazing efficacy, it seems reasonably logical that Afrezza could easily capture 60% of the existing RAA market in the US and Europe within 4 or 5 years, let alone 8 years; then there is the Asian market as well.

    Honestly, what percentage of people (except those medically contraindicated) will choose to continue forcing a metal shaft into their flesh 3 or 4 times per day when there is a superior product available which doesn't require it? And for any who would argue whether Afrezza is superior in efficacy and safety - don't bother as you will just look foolish or biased.

    So 60% of a global market which is increasing at roughly 7% annually (some studies indicate RAA adoption is outpacing diabetes incidence significantly) seems quite achievable.

    Still....appreciate the effort you put into this article.
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    Of course one has to keep in mind that "currently" a large percentage of the diagnosed US diabetics aren't utilizing insulin (though many more 'should' be than are). And then of course there is the huge 'pre-diabetic' US market which apparently numbers in excess of 80 million - time will tell on that front.

    Considering Afrezza's potential and ascribing some value to the underlying TS platform, a P/E metric of 35 seems justifiable, though I prefer using the P/S metric.

    REGN is currently sporting a P/E of 35ish, and PCYC is currently at a Forward P/E of 59ish, so there is indeed precedence for using a sig. higher P/E than 20.

    Also, considering the astounding reports, from early adopters, of Afrezza's superior efficacy and safety, not to mention convenience (translate that to increased compliance), it seems quite logical that Afrezza could easily capture 60% of the US RAA market; in 'real-world' use, Afrezza IS
    proving superior to any RAA competition, regardless of what the recent trials indicated - that fact will become ever more evident as early adopters begin turning in their latest A1C test results (new users must be on Afrezza at least 12 weeks before they can test accurately).

    *Note that Sanofi, previously has gone on record indicating that their "initial" target for US Afrezza adoption is roughly 3 million users; one should be able to assume at least an equal amount of 'initial' users from Europe as well....granted Afrezza may not be available in Europe 2016/2017.
    Mar 31, 2015. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Stock Approaching Pre-FDA Approval Price: Is A Bottom Coming? [View article]
    "Since AL went out of his way to make retail investors believe that the Pfizer insulin was a hugh liquid asset, post approval, and it is not; he should personally take an interest in fixing the capital structure before he fully disengages from the company."

    Agreed, without question - also, without question, don't hold your breath.
    Mar 28, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Biased Analysts, Diabetics Love MannKind's Afrezza [View article]
    Here is a recent (3/2/15) Twitter comment from Brian Sharp, a pilot and T1 diabetic, representative of many Afrezza 'early adopters' experiences which are popping up on Twitter, other social media sites, and diabetic groups: "My 7 day average is 119.4, the lowest I had in 16 years! Go Afrezza! Yesterdays average was 94.6, You can super control your BG with Afrezza"

    Such reports indicating Afrezza efficacy far surpassing that achieved in the FDA approval trials, and indicating quite superior efficacy to any other competing RAA available, are quickly finding their way back to the prescribing Endos and PCPs as well; soon it will be hard to find a doubting Endo.

    Soon this initial trickle of reports, will become a stream, then a flood...Afrezza will then be in such demand I wonder if MNKD will be able to produce it fast enough. Imagine a painless, vastly superior alternative to the 'buggy whip' barbarity of jabbing metal shafts into one's belly 3 or 4 times per day - wait, you don't have to imagine it since it is already available.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Is Tripling Production To Meet Future Demand [View article]
    Thanks for your input doc - very valuable.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Oh and yeah, you definitely don't do PC well. LOL
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    No Robert.....it wasn't a 'homerun', nor balanced, but it is true to PA's 'form' of late - intentionally biased to the downside. Try using a realistic PE multiple of between 35 and 55 (REGNs - PCYC), and not casting innuendos of Matt Pfeffer's lack of accuracy in describing the partnership as equating to a 'mid-twenty' percent royalty stream.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:19 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Outstanding reply!
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:18 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Oh so Matt Pfeffer, MNKD's CFO, is a liar? Or just confused? But you know better?
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:50 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    A multiple of between 35 and 55 is much more realistic for a developmental biotech addressing such a large and growing market with a product which early adopters are reporting is actually a good bit superior to any available competition - that is verifiable if you bother to look.

    Now go back and refigure with say a 55 PE like PCYC is sporting. You aren't fooling anyone btw.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Not WS...only short tools - long investors have been and continue to be very patient - realizing that it can take months for most diabetics just to get in to see their Endo for an Afrezza RX. Sanofi isn't even promoting Afrezza yet. Wait until Sanofi starts the TV commercials in a few months.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp Fourth Quarter Edition [View article]
    6034700 - Elucidate man...

    The author and another have asked you to be more specific as regards the "alluded" to problem, and yet you refuse. The author has, in an attempt to address your concerns, stated: "In terms of Eleonore, according to the company the problems with the Tailings Filter Press have been corrected and GG expects to produce 330,000 ounces in FY2015.

    What's the issues with Eleonore you're referring to?"

    Yet you refuse to clarify your position. Is that because you can't really substantiate your position?
    Feb 21, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Investors: Don't Screw Up The Afrezza Launch [View article]
    Wow - Simply Outstanding and Classy response AU....Sanofi should hire you forthwith! ; )
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    Sorry, that was supposed to read "...the huge [pre-diabetic] population of roughly 86 million in the US...."
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    Like your response, except a realistic market capture for Afrezza, on a global basis, is far more than 3 million. Sanofi's "initial" target population is 3.1 million in the US alone. There are roughly 15 to 16 million diabetics using only oral meds, and 40% of those are failing significantly to maintain their BG levels within acceptable range....so you have those 6 million who could greatly benefit from Afrezza, plus the roughly 1.5 million, out of the current ~ 4.6 million current US RAA injectors, who surveys have indicated simply dread their need to inject 3 or 4 times per day. Then you have the huge population of roughly 86 million in the US (latest figures from the CDC). Up to 30% of these individuals, without effective intervention, will develop full-blown diabetes within 5-years.

    It is pretty easy to see that when Sanofi said "initial" US target population for Afrezza is 3.1 million persons - they truly meant "initial".

    The actual US adopters of Afrezza, given a good number of years time for its effectiveness to become widely known among physicians and the diabetic community, could easily reach 9 million. With the estimated global diabetic population in the vicinity of 365 million (depending on statistical source), and currently increasing at ~ 6.5 %, one can easily see how Afrezza adopters globally can eventually surpass 20 million.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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