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  • Losing Confidence In MannKind [View article]
    Wow, a rather sparse article, if you can even call it that....did you even bother to check on the increasing short interest? How about mentioning that recently Sanofi provided their projections that Afrezza will pull in $roughly $6.2 billion on just their primary US target population of 3.1 million US diabetics?

    MNKD's CFO M. Pfeffer has stated the recent deal with Sanofi is equivalent to a mid-twenty percent revenue split for MNKD. Thus, assuming SNY knows the diabetes/insulin market reasonably well and their projections are relatively accurate, the $6.2 billion equates to roughly $1.5 billion (in time) to MNKD, again assuming Mr. Pfeffer's comments are accurate. Taking that $1.5 billion (just US sales btw), and applying a revenue multiple of 15 results in $22.5 dividing by 450 million shares results in a share price of $50. Assuming Sanofi's target population capture is achieved by say 2019 (and I expect it will actually be achieved much sooner), and applying a 15% annual discount results in a NPV for MNKD shares of roughly $26.

    We can likely expect Afrezza to be available in Europe sometime in 2017, if not sooner, so one can make their own assumptions about how those sales will add to the figures presented here re. MNKD's projected share price from US sales, and then there is the ROW (rest of world) sales above and beyond US and Europe to figure in.

    *Of course were one to utilize a P/Rev multiple of say 20 instead of 15 (keep in mind that MNKD won't be paying taxes for quite awhile and the use of fast or rapid acting insulin is increasing at roughly 10% annually) then these share price figures can be adjusted upward 25% resulting in a NPV of MNKD shares of $32.50

    The above share price projections don't even consider the roughly $900 million (from memory) in milestone payments which MNKD will receive from Sanofi over the coming few years, nor is any value ascribed to the Technosphere platform...though Matt Pfeffer has recently indicated that in February he expects to update shareholders on a couple of potential opportunities in this area.

    So honestly, if your 'confidence is fading' of late, maybe it is simply because you don't know how to perform proper due diligence.

    Personally, I consider a stock selling for 75% discount to NPV, with multiple irons in the fire soon to be announced, a Screaming Buy - but that's just me; maybe you should place your bets with CDs or maybe in US Treasury Bonds since biotech is definitely no place for lightweights who lose their confidence every time a short interest spike causes their stock to drop a bit, or an insider executes a planned sale for that matter.
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:01 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLV Sees A Good Chance Of FDA Approval For MannKind's Afrezza And 60% Upside [View article]
    It is interesting to note that of those who write 'positive' articles regarding MNKD's Afrezza, all appear to have solid credentials such as yourself and George RHO....obviously one would be hard pressed to make such an argument for those who write 'negative' articles. That said, I must take exception with your ridiculously low s/p projection....'5% terminal growth' seems an absurd projection - but I guess that might at least partly explain your $9 s/p target.

    Honestly, when one considers that Afrezza is not subject to the stringent refrigeration requirements of 'normal insulin', is safer by far in that it nearly eliminates to the potential for the dangerous, even fatal, hypoglycemic attack/insulin shock occurrence which those injecting insulin are subject to, has such obvious implications for increased compliance, and has been demonstrated to be superior to any other rapid acting prandial insulin in almost every metric (equivalent in the others) seems a 40% market capture may be quite low.

    Your readers should be aware that insulin sales are increasing globally at approx. a 12% rate, with recent US figures approaching 15%. All professionally done surveys which I have run across indicate Afrezza will achieve a minimum 40% market capture when available. It is also of pertinent interest that although the US accounts for somewhere less than 25% of the global diabetic population, by dollar sales volume it accounts for approximately 50%.

    *BTW.... US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010 - granted that not all of these sales are prandial insulin (pre-meal), but likely about 75% are.

    By simple extrapolation, 2016 US prandial insulin sales are projected to reach $9 billion...a 40% capture rate would equate to a revenue stream in excess of $3.5 billion; this figure doesn't even include 'rest of world' market capture among the global diabetic population.

    Appreciate your article and your views regarding the high likelihood of imminent FDA approval.....but you need to refigure your share price projections using a realistic P/S metric; hint - consider Celgene's P/S metric of ~ 10, or since MNKD has considerable tax loss to carry forward against future sales one might go more for a P/S metric of say 15 such as REGN is sporting. And there is that significant fact of MNKD's already expensed insulin in storage....I think they project it is sufficient to produce the first $10 billion worth of product. And then of course you are aware that once Afrezza is approved, this will validate their underlying 'technosphere' I wondering why you didn't ascribe any worth to that.

    I think your readers would be well served to read G. Rho's past articles where he places a s/p target closer to $40 than your $9.
    Mar 18, 2014. 01:40 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    I find your choice of a PE of 15 as valuation metric to be bordering on absurdly much so as to be unrealistic and misleading.

    Let's look at some PE of a few other in the biotech/pharma space for comparison.

    PCYC, a dev. biotech similar to MNKD, with revenue, according to Yahoo, of approx. $563 million, but with a profit margin of only 15%, sports a Trailing PE of 147 and a Forward PE of 295!

    REGN, with revenue of approx. $2.63 billion and a profit margin of approx 13%, sports a Trailing PE of approx. 145 and a Forward PE of approx 36.

    CELG, more established, with a revenue of approx. $7.34 billion and a profit margin of approx. 22%, sports a Trailing PE of ~ 65 and a Forward PE of ~ 25.5

    Sanofi, a Big Pharma thrown in just for comparison, has a revenue of approx. $38 billion and profit margin of 'only' approx. 12%, sports a Trailing PE of 26.5 and a Forward PE of approx. 14.5

    So you used a PE metric similar to that commonly applied to Big Pharmas to base your price projections for MNKD share price on? Why would anyone intentionally do that? You are an experienced SA contributor and there is no way you did that by accident.

    Try re-figuring your estimates using a realistic PE commonly used for developmental biotechs, or better, use a P/S of say 16 (similar to that of REGN) or a P/S of 21 (similar to that of PCYC).

    * I find your use of a '15 PE' absurdly misleading.
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:44 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India picks Israeli anti-tank missile over U.S. model [View news story]
    Congratulations to Israel - I absolutely love it when Israel/Rafael manages to produce a superior product and then can actually win out in the market place as well. The growing ties which are evident between India and Israel is a thing of interest and I think a very fortunate developing trend; the less Israel is reliant and thus controlled by Washington the better for Israel.
    Oct 26, 2014. 06:39 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    Your apparent implication that Exubera and Afrezza are so similar as to almost certainly receive the same degree of acceptance among physicians and potential recipients couldn't be further from accurate....Exubera simply was a commercial flop which by chemical/physical design is inferior to Afrezza in efficacy, convenience, and safety (the diminished lung function/residue from Exubera use vs. Afrezza). As regards your apparent adamant belief that physicians will be overwhelmingly resistant to prescribing Afrezza....numerous large professionally conducted surveys, one involving over 600 physician responses, indicates just the opposite of what you contend; to save you the trouble indications are that over 80% (from memory) of physician respondents expect to prescribe Afrezza to their insulin dependent diabetics (except where contraindicated by label restrictions of course). You fail totally to back up your contentions with facts, simply because the facts argue against your position.

    Seems bizarre to honestly doubt that 2 out of ten insulin dependent diabetics will almost immediately upon Afrezza availability (give that percentage maybe 2 to 3 months) be contacting their physicians for a prescription....from there, as word of mouth and advertising kicks in, I expect Afrezza to easily capture at least 40% of the prandial insulin market; granted, to reach 60% market capture will likely take a few years. Imagine no more pre-meal injections, no refrigeration, superior efficacy, and sig. increased safety.
    Jan 22, 2014. 10:29 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Price Estimate Now That Afrezza Is Launching [View article]
    *Another view, by 'finallyinthemoney' on the YHOO MNKD board - estimates MNKD NPV at $22.15

    "Recently a poster mentioned a quote of approx. $235 for a 90-count box of 4 unit Afrezza I will calculate from that and assume that is a 1-month supply.

    $235 X 12 = $2820.00 annual...rounded to $2800. $2800.00 X Sanofi's 'initial' US target population of 3.1 million Afrezza adopters = $8.68 billion to Sanofi. I will use 24% to approximate Matt's claim of a near 'mid-twenty percent' revenue royalty being the equivalent of the 35% profit sharing arrangement btwn MNKD and Sanofi.
    So, we take $8.68 billion X .24 = $2.08 billion falling to MNKD. Applying the P/S (P/Rev) metric of 16, as REGN is sporting currently, results in $33.28 billion. All left to do is divide by number of MNKD shares outstanding. I decided to use a 475M fully diluted share count (adjust up or down a bit according to your view of the true shares outstanding). So, $33.28 billion divided by 475 million shares = $70 p/share.

    *Utilizing a P/Rev of 18 yields a s/price of ~ $78.82
    *Utilizing a P/Rev of 21, similar to that of PCYC, yields a s/p of $91.96

    Assuming that Sanofi will be able to meet their 'initial' US target....then what is a realistic NPV for MNKD shares? Of course this depends on the time to reach their 3.1M adopters and the discount one wishes to apply to each year. So going with the $70 p/sh (P/Rev of 16), assuming 4 years to target achievement ($70 by 2019), and utilizing a 25% discount p/yr results in a NPV of $22.15

    *Important - we are expecting Afrezza to be available in Europe, and who knows where else, by probably sometime in 2017....these share price projections don't include the additional revenue from expected ROW Afrezza future sales, nor do they attempt to figure for added eventual income from future products or licensing deals involving the Technosphere platform technology.

    One can argue that it won't take 4 years to reach SNY's target, and/or that a 25% discount is too high - regardless, MNKD is obviously way undervalued at ~ $5.75"
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:53 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Troubles Beyond Provenge Test [View article]
    After reading your pathetic and absurdly illogical critique of Dendreon's Provenge, denigrating its commercial viability...I have to conclude you are just another badly bruised short, as it is hard to believe anyone can be truly as stupid as you sound in your article.

    Provenge has demonstrated superiority in efficacy and side-effect profile by a wide margin in 3 phase-3 trials. It is obvious to any intelligent and unbiased observer (you are obviously excluded here), that Provenge represents an extreme financial threat to the multi-billion dollar chemo dynasties of the giant pharmaceutical corporations which make such extreme profit from promoting cheap, higthly dangerous and relatively ineffective chemicals (not all of course) as cancer treatments.

    Get used to it pal...Dendreon's technology has been validated and a new age is upon us. BTW...all indications are that active immunotherapies such as Provenge work better the sooner in the disease process they are used, and their efficacy is almost certainly greatly enhanced by the timely use of a "booster" infusion. Provenge is vastly superior to Taxotere, which is a truly dangerous and minimally effective treatment for end-stage prostate cancer when used as a mono-therapy. Some Provenge recipients from the earlier phase-3 trials are still alive over 7 years later!

    You are on the wrong side of this issue, and I suspect your agenda blinds you to not only the facts regarding Provenge, but also your responsibility for honest communication which all decent human beings share...go back and do some serious research before spouting off next time.

    Long DNDN because it is vastly superior to the current SOC.
    Apr 16, 2009. 12:04 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    "And please note--5.7% of the patient discontinued the drug because of coughs. Don't you think that attending physicians will have an issue with this problem--they sure did with Exubera."

    Oh puleeeze - and you don't think that 6% of any given patient population will discontinue a certain treatment for a variety of reasons....that "5.7%" figure actually argues in favor of Afrezza's likely commercial success! You don't think, were Afrezza the current standard of care, and there was a trial of injectable insulin, that 6% would quit the trial due to the pain and inconvenience of the injections!! Think about the absurdity of your argument. It turns out that the 'cough' which you site goes away after the first week or so....had these trial participants hung in there just a bit longer it is likely their coughs would have vanished as well. Let's suppose, for arguments sake, that 6% of potential Afrezza users just can't shake the what? Nobody ever said that Afrezza would capture 100% of the market. Do you realize that Afrezza will be a blockbuster if it captures 5% of the market? By my figures/extrapolation sometime in 2017 global prandial insulin sales are projected to be in the vicinity of $23.5 billion - just a 25% capture equates to roughly $6 billion in revenue....for comparison consider CELG with a current similar share count to MNKD and a current annual revenue of approx. $6 billion. Slap on CELG's P/S metric of ~ get a s/p of ~ $170. Split it in two so as to account for a partner if you like....still indicates a s/p in the vicinity of $80. Now if Afrezza were to capture 40% by then, which I consider is easily achievable, and you then have a potential annual revenue stream of $9 billion by 2017/2018; keep in mind that insulin use has been increasing globally about 12% each year. Also keep in mind that a number of the world's diabetes experts are thinking that much earlier use of insulin might keep the huge population of pre-diabetics from ever progressing into full blown diabetes.
    Jan 23, 2014. 12:46 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    C S Strum - pure BS

    What an absurd ridiculous comment.....the average insulin dependent diabetic requires from 3 to 5 prandial injections and 1 or 2 basal injections per day.

    Only roughly 5% of the diabetic population fall into the Type-1 category.

    Nice try Shorty - you better cover soon, as Afrezza is both superior in efficacy and safety to any other fast acting insulin on the market; it will quickly capture 20% of any market where it is available, eventually capturing over 40% of the market.
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Leg of Home Price Declines Is Afoot [View article]
    "In other words, houses are fairly priced -- not exactly cheap by historical standards, but not way overvalued, either."

    Oh that is a lost any credibility you had with that silly claim. Housing prices in California need to fall at least an additional 20% for that to be accurate. Take a comparative look at avg. purchasing power, inflation adjusted take home pay, vs. housing price appreciation in California since say the year 2000.
    Nov 30, 2010. 10:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma’s Diet Pill and Tumors: A Big Rat? [View article]
    Unfortunately, the FDA can indeed be blatantly biased, intentionally misrepresent scientific findings, ie., combine cancerous and non-cancerous tumor stats so as to "demonstrate" statistical relevancy where none really exists by accepted industry protocol, and intimidate unqualified advisory committee members...they can do this because they are aware that no genuine oversight exists within the agency or by those outside the agency tasked with that authority. Absolute power corrupts absolutely...the FDA is an absolutely corrupt organization without the will to expose or overrule those among them which resort to even blatant disregard for truth, fairness, and accepted scientific process. Sounds a bit like the SEC, and so many other sectors of the Federal government...simply out of control and without accountability regardless how glaring their failures; this aint your father's America. Hopefully officials in Europe, the one's who recently banned Meridia for the tremendous risk it poses, will fairly evaluate Lorcaserin. Sadly, America is simply becoming a cesspool of corruption.
    Sep 20, 2010. 06:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Manic Monday: Greenspan Finally Agrees With Me [View article]
    Ahh, the blissful ignorance of the clueless. Bush and the stupid Republicans were a disaster, spent like drunken WallStreet hedge fund traders, but Obama has taken a bad situation and made it 3 X worse! What you fail to understand is that the Piper has to be paid, the more money you print to try and escape the natural consequences of the a bubble deflation, just makes the eventual payday that much worse. Unfortunately, the point of no return has been reached and exceeded, far exceeded in fact. We can never repay the debt we owe, we can never possibly grow our way out of this debt. Bernanke is desperately attempting to ward of a deflationary spiral, but it will be to no avail. You likely have no idea the hardship which is racing for America...but don't worry, you will soon enough; we will see if you are still singing Obama's praises when you finally realize how much worse he has made things.
    Aug 2, 2010. 11:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Internist's Glance At MannKind's Afrezza [View article]
    "There isn't a compelling improvement in clinical efficacy or patient adherence"

    Oh would appear those with first-hand experience using Afrezza, the trial participants who appeared before the AdCom, don't share your opinion - nor, judging by the near unanimous positive vote outcome, do the AdCom members themselves agree with you.

    Hmmmm, it's tough....a doc with absolutely no experience with Afrezza vs. actual users and those AdCom physicians with expertise in the field who heard their testimony and reviewed all the information from the trials - gee, I think I will go with the opinions of those who actually have the first-hand experience.

    Oh and btw....about this comment of yours in response to a previous comment: "Trading one side effect for another would really only be worth it if efficacy were significantly improved, in my opinion." What side effect specifically were you referring to? Can't be say the transient cough which some Afrezza users experience vs. say the long-tails of existing rapid acting insulins (btw...Afrezza is a good bit more 'rapid' acting than the competition's 'rapid' acting). Go ahead doc....elaborate about Afrezza's side effects which you wouldn't deem worth 'trading' for the side effects of other more established rapid acting insulins - enlighten us please.

    Those with first-hand experience utilizing Afrezza seemed to disagree with you. I wonder how long your patients, those who come to you expressing a desire to try Afrezza, will stay with you when you tell them you just aren't really interested in them switching because you just don't think its worth it to you?

    I have heard of a study which indicates roughly 30% of current US diabetics utilizing rapid-acting insulin absolutely detest their need to inject; bet the majority of the other 70% are only a little less motivated to abandon the need to stab themselves in the stomach 3 or 4 times per day. Truly hope, for your sake, that insulin injecting diabetics are not a sig. percentage of your practice; but you won't have to worry about the smokers or those with lung disease - they will stay with you.
    Jan 3, 2015. 09:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    Thanks George for the article - but honestly it isn't quite up to what I have come to expect from you.

    Not hard to go ahead and apply say a ballpark discount rate of say 17%. In consideration of the insultingly absurd and paltry upfront $150M, you didn't address whether you expect a dilutive capital raise will now be required. What is your opinion of Sanofi providing the $175M line of credit (expected MNKD's 35% of the launch costs) at 8% interest? My view is that $175M is the bare minimum and should have been $300M at 3% interest. Why was there no equity stake, say 5% at $10(?) worked into the deal, something which likely would have gone a long long way towards dislodging the huge and intransigent short position by sending a giant indicator of Sanofi's confidence in this joint venture?

    It is my contention that this deal was a giant win for Sanofi, which granted should motivate them to give it their absolute best promotional effort, but a rather marginal deal for MNKD; the most annoying aspect of this partnership deal is that Sanofi could have easily, read that as very little additional expense to them, made this a giant win/win home run for MNKD and of course their shareholdrers, a deal which would have seen the shorts stampeding for the exits. Really, 8% interest on the $175 million dollar upfront loan!??

    It would have been pocket change for Sanofi to offer the barest expected upfront payment of $300 million, and it wouldn't have really been a big deal, in the long run, to offer $500 million upfront - I mean they walked in and gained 65% profit of something which cost over $2 billion and 10 years to develop and shepherd through the FDA gauntlet....a treatment which is likely to eventually produce annual revenues in excess $7 billion, possibly way in excess if they can make serious inroads into the pre-diabetic market of approx. 85 million persons in just the US alone.

    Sanofi appears to have risked little, and their reluctance to make this a truly win/win deal, a homerun for both companies, sent a blaring "No Confidence" indication to WS in general, and put no pressure on the short position what-so-ever......they saved so little by being so stingy - it is a genuine shame.
    Aug 20, 2014. 01:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank You For Riding The MannKind Catalyst Train - Please Exit Safely At The Next Available Station [View article]
    G.Rho.....thanks for shedding a bit of light on the author's 'methods', as per his prior admission to you. - LOL

    Not that anyone would be the least bit influenced by this 'article'.

    For newbies possibly unfamiliar with Afrezza's commercial potential (assuming approval of course), I have included one recent message board post.

    "US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010" by richlittle

    "Using these figures one can extrapolate, using a more conservative say 10% annual increase, that US insulin sales in 2014 should reach ~ $11.5 that may be low and of course not all of that is prandial insulin sales. 2015 figures should be about $12.6 B-plus, again this will be low if the yearly increase is closer to the 15% jump reported from 2010 to 2011.

    Just thought I would throw these figures out there for others. Seems that 2015 US 'prandial' insulin sales might likely be around $9.5 a 20% capture should be around the $2 B figure just for the US come sometime in 2015.

    Feel free to apply a P/S ratio to that figure....say 10 X like CELG, 12 X like Jazz, or even 16 X like REGN.
    *Just ballpark figures....guessing 75% of insulin sales fall into the prandial market. Apologies if these figures are off by a sig. amount.

    **Using a 10 X P/S metric similar to CELG's....let us assume the US 'prandial' insulin market is $10 billion sometime in 2015 (prandial only..roughly 75% of the total insulin market) - some consider this figure low btw. A 20% capture rate would equate to a $2 billion revenue stream at that point. Now applying our P/S metric of 10 X and you have a MC of $20 billion. Lets say MNKD has 400 million shares, so we divide our $20 B MC by the 400 M shares and we get a share price of $50; if by chance we have 500 M shares, then the s/p with that P/S metric of 10 is $40. Now keep in mind that these figures are for a 20% capture of just the US market. It seems that though 70% plus of the global diabetic population resides outside the US (sorry can't remember the exact figure - it may be over 75%), the US accounts for ~ 50% by $ amount of insulin we can safely double the s/p for a 20% 'global' prandial insulin market capture. That gives us a s/p of somewhere around $100 if we have 400 M shares, or $80 p/sh if we go with the 500 M shares. You do the math for 2016, 2017, etc. I'm expecting a min. 40% capture rate btw."
    Feb 27, 2014. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment