Seeking Alpha

in4thelonghaul

in4thelonghaul
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View in4thelonghaul's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • MLV Sees A Good Chance Of FDA Approval For MannKind's Afrezza And 60% Upside [View article]
    It is interesting to note that of those who write 'positive' articles regarding MNKD's Afrezza, all appear to have solid credentials such as yourself and George RHO....obviously one would be hard pressed to make such an argument for those who write 'negative' articles. That said, I must take exception with your ridiculously low s/p projection....'5% terminal growth' seems an absurd projection - but I guess that might at least partly explain your $9 s/p target.

    Honestly, when one considers that Afrezza is not subject to the stringent refrigeration requirements of 'normal insulin', is safer by far in that it nearly eliminates to the potential for the dangerous, even fatal, hypoglycemic attack/insulin shock occurrence which those injecting insulin are subject to, has such obvious implications for increased compliance, and has been demonstrated to be superior to any other rapid acting prandial insulin in almost every metric (equivalent in the others)...it seems a 40% market capture may be quite low.

    Your readers should be aware that insulin sales are increasing globally at approx. a 12% rate, with recent US figures approaching 15%. All professionally done surveys which I have run across indicate Afrezza will achieve a minimum 40% market capture when available. It is also of pertinent interest that although the US accounts for somewhere less than 25% of the global diabetic population, by dollar sales volume it accounts for approximately 50%.

    *BTW.... US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010 - granted that not all of these sales are prandial insulin (pre-meal), but likely about 75% are.

    By simple extrapolation, 2016 US prandial insulin sales are projected to reach $9 billion...a 40% capture rate would equate to a revenue stream in excess of $3.5 billion; this figure doesn't even include 'rest of world' market capture among the global diabetic population.

    Appreciate your article and your views regarding the high likelihood of imminent FDA approval.....but you need to refigure your share price projections using a realistic P/S metric; hint - consider Celgene's P/S metric of ~ 10, or since MNKD has considerable tax loss to carry forward against future sales one might go more for a P/S metric of say 15 such as REGN is sporting. And there is that significant fact of MNKD's already expensed insulin in storage....I think they project it is sufficient to produce the first $10 billion worth of product. And then of course you are aware that once Afrezza is approved, this will validate their underlying 'technosphere' platform....so I wondering why you didn't ascribe any worth to that.

    I think your readers would be well served to read G. Rho's past articles where he places a s/p target closer to $40 than your $9.
    Mar 18 01:40 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    Your apparent implication that Exubera and Afrezza are so similar as to almost certainly receive the same degree of acceptance among physicians and potential recipients couldn't be further from accurate....Exubera simply was a commercial flop which by chemical/physical design is inferior to Afrezza in efficacy, convenience, and safety (the diminished lung function/residue from Exubera use vs. Afrezza). As regards your apparent adamant belief that physicians will be overwhelmingly resistant to prescribing Afrezza....numerous large professionally conducted surveys, one involving over 600 physician responses, indicates just the opposite of what you contend; to save you the trouble indications are that over 80% (from memory) of physician respondents expect to prescribe Afrezza to their insulin dependent diabetics (except where contraindicated by label restrictions of course). You fail totally to back up your contentions with facts, simply because the facts argue against your position.

    Seems bizarre to honestly doubt that 2 out of ten insulin dependent diabetics will almost immediately upon Afrezza availability (give that percentage maybe 2 to 3 months) be contacting their physicians for a prescription....from there, as word of mouth and advertising kicks in, I expect Afrezza to easily capture at least 40% of the prandial insulin market; granted, to reach 60% market capture will likely take a few years. Imagine no more pre-meal injections, no refrigeration, superior efficacy, and sig. increased safety.
    Jan 22 10:29 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Troubles Beyond Provenge Test [View article]
    After reading your pathetic and absurdly illogical critique of Dendreon's Provenge, denigrating its commercial viability...I have to conclude you are just another badly bruised short, as it is hard to believe anyone can be truly as stupid as you sound in your article.

    Provenge has demonstrated superiority in efficacy and side-effect profile by a wide margin in 3 phase-3 trials. It is obvious to any intelligent and unbiased observer (you are obviously excluded here), that Provenge represents an extreme financial threat to the multi-billion dollar chemo dynasties of the giant pharmaceutical corporations which make such extreme profit from promoting cheap, higthly dangerous and relatively ineffective chemicals (not all of course) as cancer treatments.

    Get used to it pal...Dendreon's technology has been validated and a new age is upon us. BTW...all indications are that active immunotherapies such as Provenge work better the sooner in the disease process they are used, and their efficacy is almost certainly greatly enhanced by the timely use of a "booster" infusion. Provenge is vastly superior to Taxotere, which is a truly dangerous and minimally effective treatment for end-stage prostate cancer when used as a mono-therapy. Some Provenge recipients from the earlier phase-3 trials are still alive over 7 years later!

    You are on the wrong side of this issue, and I suspect your agenda blinds you to not only the facts regarding Provenge, but also your responsibility for honest communication which all decent human beings share...go back and do some serious research before spouting off next time.

    Long DNDN because it is vastly superior to the current SOC.
    Apr 16 12:04 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Catalysts: Insights About Diabetes Care Metrics And Long-Term Complications [View article]
    "And please note--5.7% of the patient discontinued the drug because of coughs. Don't you think that attending physicians will have an issue with this problem--they sure did with Exubera."

    Oh puleeeze - and you don't think that 6% of any given patient population will discontinue a certain treatment for a variety of reasons....that "5.7%" figure actually argues in favor of Afrezza's likely commercial success! You don't think, were Afrezza the current standard of care, and there was a trial of injectable insulin, that 6% would quit the trial due to the pain and inconvenience of the injections!! Think about the absurdity of your argument. It turns out that the 'cough' which you site goes away after the first week or so....had these trial participants hung in there just a bit longer it is likely their coughs would have vanished as well. Let's suppose, for arguments sake, that 6% of potential Afrezza users just can't shake the cough.....so what? Nobody ever said that Afrezza would capture 100% of the market. Do you realize that Afrezza will be a blockbuster if it captures 5% of the market? By my figures/extrapolation sometime in 2017 global prandial insulin sales are projected to be in the vicinity of $23.5 billion - just a 25% capture equates to roughly $6 billion in revenue....for comparison consider CELG with a current similar share count to MNKD and a current annual revenue of approx. $6 billion. Slap on CELG's P/S metric of ~ 11.....you get a s/p of ~ $170. Split it in two so as to account for a partner if you like....still indicates a s/p in the vicinity of $80. Now if Afrezza were to capture 40% by then, which I consider is easily achievable, and you then have a potential annual revenue stream of $9 billion by 2017/2018; keep in mind that insulin use has been increasing globally about 12% each year. Also keep in mind that a number of the world's diabetes experts are thinking that much earlier use of insulin might keep the huge population of pre-diabetics from ever progressing into full blown diabetes.
    Jan 23 12:46 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: One Large Step For Shareholders, One Gigantic Step For Diabetics [View article]
    C S Strum - pure BS

    What an absurd ridiculous comment.....the average insulin dependent diabetic requires from 3 to 5 prandial injections and 1 or 2 basal injections per day.

    Only roughly 5% of the diabetic population fall into the Type-1 category.

    Nice try Shorty - you better cover soon, as Afrezza is both superior in efficacy and safety to any other fast acting insulin on the market; it will quickly capture 20% of any market where it is available, eventually capturing over 40% of the market.
    Jan 6 01:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Leg of Home Price Declines Is Afoot [View article]
    "In other words, houses are fairly priced -- not exactly cheap by historical standards, but not way overvalued, either."

    Oh that is a laugh.....you lost any credibility you had with that silly claim. Housing prices in California need to fall at least an additional 20% for that to be accurate. Take a comparative look at avg. purchasing power, inflation adjusted take home pay, vs. housing price appreciation in California since say the year 2000.
    Nov 30 10:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharma’s Diet Pill and Tumors: A Big Rat? [View article]
    Unfortunately, the FDA can indeed be blatantly biased, intentionally misrepresent scientific findings, ie., combine cancerous and non-cancerous tumor stats so as to "demonstrate" statistical relevancy where none really exists by accepted industry protocol, and intimidate unqualified advisory committee members...they can do this because they are aware that no genuine oversight exists within the agency or by those outside the agency tasked with that authority. Absolute power corrupts absolutely...the FDA is an absolutely corrupt organization without the will to expose or overrule those among them which resort to even blatant disregard for truth, fairness, and accepted scientific process. Sounds a bit like the SEC, and so many other sectors of the Federal government...simply out of control and without accountability regardless how glaring their failures; this aint your father's America. Hopefully officials in Europe, the one's who recently banned Meridia for the tremendous risk it poses, will fairly evaluate Lorcaserin. Sadly, America is simply becoming a cesspool of corruption.
    Sep 20 06:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Manic Monday: Greenspan Finally Agrees With Me [View article]
    Ahh, the blissful ignorance of the clueless. Bush and the stupid Republicans were a disaster, spent like drunken WallStreet hedge fund traders, but Obama has taken a bad situation and made it 3 X worse! What you fail to understand is that the Piper has to be paid, the more money you print to try and escape the natural consequences of the a bubble deflation, just makes the eventual payday that much worse. Unfortunately, the point of no return has been reached and exceeded, far exceeded in fact. We can never repay the debt we owe, we can never possibly grow our way out of this debt. Bernanke is desperately attempting to ward of a deflationary spiral, but it will be to no avail. You likely have no idea the hardship which is racing for America...but don't worry, you will soon enough; we will see if you are still singing Obama's praises when you finally realize how much worse he has made things.
    Aug 2 11:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank You For Riding The MannKind Catalyst Train - Please Exit Safely At The Next Available Station [View article]
    G.Rho.....thanks for shedding a bit of light on the author's 'methods', as per his prior admission to you. - LOL

    Not that anyone would be the least bit influenced by this 'article'.

    For newbies possibly unfamiliar with Afrezza's commercial potential (assuming approval of course), I have included one recent message board post.

    "US Insulin Sales: ~ $8.3 B in 2011..up 14.9% from 2010 - Global: $16.7 B..up 12.5% from 2010" by richlittle

    "Using these figures one can extrapolate, using a more conservative say 10% annual increase, that US insulin sales in 2014 should reach ~ $11.5 B....now that may be low and of course not all of that is prandial insulin sales. 2015 figures should be about $12.6 B-plus, again this will be low if the yearly increase is closer to the 15% jump reported from 2010 to 2011.

    Just thought I would throw these figures out there for others. Seems that 2015 US 'prandial' insulin sales might likely be around $9.5 B.....so a 20% capture should be around the $2 B figure just for the US come sometime in 2015.

    Feel free to apply a P/S ratio to that figure....say 10 X like CELG, 12 X like Jazz, or even 16 X like REGN.
    *Just ballpark figures....guessing 75% of insulin sales fall into the prandial market. Apologies if these figures are off by a sig. amount.

    **Using a 10 X P/S metric similar to CELG's....let us assume the US 'prandial' insulin market is $10 billion sometime in 2015 (prandial only..roughly 75% of the total insulin market) - some consider this figure low btw. A 20% capture rate would equate to a $2 billion revenue stream at that point. Now applying our P/S metric of 10 X and you have a MC of $20 billion. Lets say MNKD has 400 million shares, so we divide our $20 B MC by the 400 M shares and we get a share price of $50; if by chance we have 500 M shares, then the s/p with that P/S metric of 10 is $40. Now keep in mind that these figures are for a 20% capture of just the US market. It seems that though 70% plus of the global diabetic population resides outside the US (sorry can't remember the exact figure - it may be over 75%), the US accounts for ~ 50% by $ amount of insulin sales....so we can safely double the s/p for a 20% 'global' prandial insulin market capture. That gives us a s/p of somewhere around $100 if we have 400 M shares, or $80 p/sh if we go with the 500 M shares. You do the math for 2016, 2017, etc. I'm expecting a min. 40% capture rate btw."
    Feb 27 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics: A Critique Of Adam Feuerstein Of TheStreet's Recent Analysis [View article]
    Thanks for your as always excellent article - and especially for making the effort to expose AF for newbies which may not be aware of his general reputation.

    IMO, AF's viewpoint rarely influences anyone with any experience in biotech - in short he is considered an attack yorkie in service of the short hedgies....and is pretty much considered laughable as his 'mistakes' are so frequent as to display only the most rudimentary and superficial understanding of trial design/results. If anything, AF's neg. opinion of NWBO will influence me to invest even more capital in NWBO...I just wish he would do a hit piece on ADXS - LOL
    Feb 19 09:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    Well, I for one appreciate grobertson1's viewpoint......and I fail to see how it can be fairly viewed as any type of harassment. I am here to be educated, and that includes reading best case positives along with highly negative opinions, or just opinions urging 'caution'. BTW, very rarely does a company wait until the very last minute to raise capital.....for obvious reasons - over the last 12 years I have lost count of the times dev. biotech CEOs have said they have enough capital to last thru the next 12 months, only to turn around and dilute the shareholders long before those 12 months have elapsed; sometimes it is only a few months! You/grobertson1 bring up an interesting point regarding just why AXPW hasn't been taken out, or at entered into a mutually beneficial partnership arrangement with one of the industry's better funded major players.....and I don't buy the anti-trust issue, though I am not certain on that front.

    Of course, AXPW may be just weeks away from such a partnership announcement, or a s/p boosting announcement regarding firm orders or collaboration which will allow a capital raise at far far higher prices than the current 29 cent level we are at currently.

    Keep up the great work John - always an education reading your efforts and the varied replies you receive.
    Dec 28 01:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A123 Systems: An Object Lesson In Toxic Financing [View article]
    Thanks John - not another author on SA I look forward to reading more than you.
    Aug 6 12:13 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada: First World Market With Frontier Area Profits [View article]
    Excellent article...RBY has tremendous potential to become another very low cost gold producer with their Red Lake adjacent property to GG, of course they are a likely a couple years out from actual profitable production - still RBY at roughly $5 per share appears quite undervalued and prime take-out bait for Gold Corp. As regards Canada in general...love the people, the healthy banking system, the abundant natural resources - but hate the liberal bent and especially the cold; oh if only 'global warming' were indeed more than fairy tales.
    Apr 25 07:18 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where the Big Money Is Betting Big [View article]
    It would seem logical that there would be greatly increasing money flows into gold as either a safe haven play or reinflation play; a lot of the sidelined and resectoring flows are headed into other commodities besides gold though. As the investing class//and tutes realize that the so called green shoots of recovery were in reality an accumulation of mold forming...we can expect money to concentrate into commodities which are in shortest supply. If the world economies, in general, aren't really recovering and oil//gas inventories are increasing..then it seems that the oil angle can only go so far - about as far as it has gone recently. Just about everyone realizes that there are powerful forces which have a vested interest in keeping a lid on the price of gold...question is, how long will they be successful? It will take panic to lever the gold price out of the hands of the manipulators...possibly China/Japan divesting the dollar or refusing to buy our debt, dollar abandonment as the reserve currency, or the ever more likely scenario of the U.S. having its credit rating lowered. Once the tipping point arrives, all money...smart, big, retail, all becomes scared money and will likely flood into gold. At that point, the price of golod will finally achieve its realistic value...likely exploding upwards towards $2,000. per oz. in a matter of weeks; fortunes will be made by those who have positioned themselves ahead of the run. My best bet is on AUY, though I wonder if it will receive a takeout offer before all hell breaks loose. But then lots of highly intelligent individuals are talking of shorting gold and going long energy and agriculture instead. One thing is almost certain, the U.S. dollar is headed for a devestating crash.
    May 16 09:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: Investors Should Consider Selling [View article]
    Sell near the bottom.....yeah great advice, then when news leaks of another trial participant with astounding vision improvement the seller can chase shares at .21. Criticisms are valid, conclusion is weak and silly.
    Aug 20 10:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
234 Comments
336 Likes