in4thelonghaul

Elan Corp.: Bounce on Goldman Positivity?

Post below from the IV ELN board...think about its implications.

"apoe4 carrier status and VE, efficacy measures put differently
this is a repost with a correction

apoe4 carrier status and VE, efficacy measures put differently
been further exploring the data, and trying to get out of what I can

these snippets may be of use to people

the occurrence of vasogenic oedema was not statistically associated with carrier status (10 carriers vs 2 non-carriers, compared with 72 carrier vs 47 noncarrier treated patients, p=0.2). Therefore I reject that association. It is however, highly correlated with dose and statistically significant

for those who are concerned about efficacy I have calculated a % reduction in decline using the 0.5mg dose of completers (e4- and e4) and converted the difference to placebo scores over all doses to a % reduction estimated from performance of e4- placebo. This comparison if anything should be conservative as e4 carriers are thought to decline a bit faster and historically the e4- seemed to decline a bit worse in the bap study. it should be noted that the 0.15mg dose wasnt far off this performance.

the % reductions in decline are,
ADAScog 60%
NTB 86%
DAD 64%
CDR 54%

all quite consistent and pretty impressive and should be conservative from the point of view of placebo decline. the completer analysis is a reasonable look at how effective a drug might be in phase III.

regarding a dose response the ranking is clear across the 4 tests, again completers
0.5mg dose was best at all tests
0.15mg was 2nd best at 3 from 4 tests
1mg was 3rd or 4th ranked in all tests
2mg was 3rd or 4th ranked in 3 from 4 tests

i.e. the doses not associated with VE do better, and 0.5mg does better than 0.15mg
the best dose is 0.5mg I think this is clear. My bet is "subclincal" VE in the higher doses is the problem, or "weaknesses are strengths taken to excess"

shame about the fogginess, but its all there, and damn impressive.
how could this wall street interpretation have happened I just cant believe it! this drug is going to have incredible impact.

they have to get the paper out. I cant believe I still dont know how the placebos did overall, such a basic bit of info.